HERITAGE November comic and art auction 4 4

[Lee B.]

On 10/15/2022 at 9:18 AM, grapeape said:

Michael I think he's just hoping for better buying opportunities. I'm with you that the OA market is still robust. Lee B. also mentioned about the 20 lots that were listed and disappeared after listing might be a collector wanting to spread out his consignments to maximize earning potential. They weren't necessarily withdrawn for fear of taking losses in a depressed value market. It's a peculiar spot to be in right? On the one hand we want the pieces in our collection to continue trending upwards in value. On the other we hope for signs of weakness in the market that may generate good buying opportunities. Having our cake and eating it too. Not sure we can have both but it's the dream.

Grapeape is correct, assuming the withdrawn lots relate to the consignor I had in mind.  It's much more a matter of not wanting to "flood the market" with a lot of similar lots in one auction as opposed to fear of a crashing art market.

[drdonaldblake1]

On 10/15/2022 at 8:43 PM, Michael Browning said:

“Falling prices in OA”? Huh?

I don’t think prices are falling at all and I’m not sure where you get that that’s happening.

I know there’s a lot of wishful thinking, but I’ve seen no evidence at all of falling prices.

Care to explain?

I was being sarcastic 🤭. Couldn't find an appropriate emoticon for sarcasm

[vodou]

On 10/15/2022 at 10:11 PM, drdonaldblake1 said:

appropriate emoticon for sarcasm

😉 or 🤔 or ☃️ or 👻

[KirbyCollector]

On 10/15/2022 at 11:06 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

1. This book is being sold off this year one page at a time through various auctions so you’ve got more supply of pages from this issue now vs the past 20 years

2. I’m not sure how much Byrne did on this issue because so many pages from 189/190 seem to indicate Mooney contribution > Byrne

3. there’s just one panel with Spidey

given the above, what were you expecting it to sell for?

I expected it to end over 6k... early Byrne, recognizable, drawn at the end of 1978 just as he was coming into his full power as an artist. Yes, Mooney employed a heavier line than Austin and it is not as beautiful as another Byrne character page done almost at exactly the same time (MTU 79, below, credit to Lee Benaka), but the execution (IMHO) is there nonetheless.

Btw interesting to note Byrne's use of white space/lack of backgrounds on several panels on both pages...

Edited October 16, 2022 by KirbyCollector

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/16/2022 at 9:20 AM, KirbyCollector said:

I expected it to end over 6k... early Byrne, recognizable, drawn at the end of 1978 just as he was coming into his full power as an artist. Yes, Mooney employed a heavier line than Austin and it is not as beautiful as another Byrne character page done almost at exactly the same time (MTU 79, below, credit to Lee Benaka), but the execution (IMHO) is there nonetheless.

Btw interesting to note Byrne's use of white space/lack of backgrounds on several panels on both pages...

Long story short, $6K for the strong Mooney influenced ASM page with Spidey in only one panel was a solid result, but does not indicate a crack in the market.  If it went for under $4K, then I would agree that it’s a crack.

the Byrne/Austin MTU page is from a highly coveted story and would sell for quite a bit more than the ASM page

[drdonaldblake1]

On 10/16/2022 at 10:32 PM, vodou said:

😉 or 🤔 or ☃️ or 👻

Ah thankyou, forgot the ol😉

I do hope the oa market severely crashes....well at least by 30-40% so I may actually win something😉

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/16/2022 at 12:21 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Long story short, $6K for the strong Mooney influenced ASM page with Spidey in only one panel was a solid result, but does not indicate a crack in the market.  If it went for under $4K, then I would agree that it’s a crack.

the Byrne/Austin MTU page is from a highly coveted story and would sell for quite a bit more than the ASM page

Full disclosure...I used to own that MTU 79 page many years ago.

[drdonaldblake1]

On 10/20/2022 at 7:00 AM, Bill C said:

looks like HA took even more pieces out today. it's a killer auction, maybe they want it lean and mean.

The Jim 107 splash disappeared around 13 October I think

Guess they don't want to oversaturate the market......maybe they have concerns about the current state of the USA economy and how that may affect the auction

[jjonahjameson11]

This morning’s OA lot count is 783, down from its earlier peak of 830.  Thankfully, the items On my short list haven’t been removed from this auction…yet!

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 10/15/2022 at 7:42 PM, Lee B. said:

Grapeape is correct, assuming the withdrawn lots relate to the consignor I had in mind.  It's much more a matter of not wanting to "flood the market" with a lot of similar lots in one auction as opposed to fear of a crashing art market.

all you boomers can't cash out at the same time yo!

[Grant Turner]

On 10/20/2022 at 2:58 AM, drdonaldblake1 said:

The Jim 107 splash disappeared around 13 October I think

Guess they don't want to oversaturate the market......maybe they have concerns about the current state of the USA economy and how that may affect the auction

I think it got moved to the December/January auction

[Sean I]

Do you get a notification that a lot is withdrawn if it’s pulled before the auction even starts?

[Will_K]

On 10/20/2022 at 12:11 PM, Sean- said:

Do you get a notification that a lot is withdrawn if it’s pulled before the auction even starts?

I've gotten them if the item is on my watchlist.

[Kryptic1]

On 10/19/2022 at 4:00 PM, Bill C said:

looks like HA took even more pieces out today. it's a killer auction, maybe they want it lean and mean.

I know a way to cut back on the number of pieces in the auction.

[Bronty]

On 10/20/2022 at 1:03 PM, Kryptic1 said:

I know a way to cut back on the number of pieces in the auction.

Thanks for the reminder - I've put some garfields on my tracked items.

[Dr. Balls]

On 10/15/2022 at 7:18 AM, grapeape said:

Lee B. also mentioned about the 20 lots that were listed and disappeared after listing might be a collector wanting to spread out his consignments to maximize earning potential. They weren't necessarily withdrawn for fear of taking losses in a depressed value market. It's a peculiar spot to be in right? On the one hand we want the pieces in our collection to continue trending upwards in value. On the other we hope for signs of weakness in the market that may generate good buying opportunities. Having our cake and eating it too. Not sure we can have both but it's the dream.

The weakness might come after the auction? This auction has some seriously big ticket items, and in quantity. Even spreading these out amongst the big dog players - what's around the corner? Even more big pieces? And how many of those big dogs will be there to swoop up on those? Or will there be a cooling off period from the guys holding significant pieces stay with holding them?

I'm not suggesting it's going to go either way, but it seems as if the upper end of the value spectrum is entering into the "too much of a good thing" territory.

[grapeape]

On 10/20/2022 at 11:14 AM, Dr. Balls said:

The weakness might come after the auction? This auction has some seriously big ticket items, and in quantity. Even spreading these out amongst the big dog players - what's around the corner? Even more big pieces? And how many of those big dogs will be there to swoop up on those? Or will there be a cooling off period from the guys holding significant pieces stay with holding them?

I'm not suggesting it's going to go either way, but it seems as if the upper end of the value spectrum is entering into the "too much of a good thing" territory.

Here's the main thing I think about a lot with the Price/Value explosions over the last two years. When you were dealing with auction lots where items came in under a few thousand dollars, you could justify buying in, holding, flipping, whatever. I think we've reached a point now where the on average final sale price of aggregate auctions is at least making the consumer think do I buy at $25,000 on up with the same confidence (as we near the end of 2022) that in the event I need to re-enter that purchased art back into the auction/resale market will I at least CYA or take a minimum loss? I'm not too sure.

Some of my collection has reached a point where I'm hamstrung. If I sell some of my most valuable art, I would absolutely not reinvest in the pieces I'm seeing at auction today. In other words, if I sold a page and cleared $50k I would not buy another $50k piece or even two $25k pieces. I feel like the pages I'd be selling were significantly better values when I bought them, then what I could buy with my money today. I do believe the market is currently built to hold values. But buying up on current offered pieces that yes, may hold value, I ask myself, will they grow at 2,3, 5 times their purchased value? When? I'm in my mid-fifties and not sure I'll live long enough.

What I would do, and what I think to some degree is happening, is I would risk taking my auction gains and buying 50x $1,000 pages, or 25x $2,000 pages, even if that means taking chances on new artists who have shown at least a consistent record of holding value while selling out their published work through reps (like Felix) or selling their own work.

I would also buy more recent works, maybe going ten years back to current, on proven artists like Alan Davis and others like him who have a respected output over time. If their new stuff is real quality with little discernible loss of skill, I think my money is better spent here. Is Don Heck art going to be hot (for how long?) because we've seen three TOS 39 pages sell for fantastical prices? Sentimentally, I root for even the least revered artists to get their money recognition time in the sun. Especially while they are still living! Yet in my mind, I tell myself that they may "hold" their value but they are not the best places to spend my money or trade away my treasures. Some reasons those gains might not collapse is because of the sheer and stubborn will of dealers who want to hold prices at or above what people are willing to spend. Also, collectors who buy some of the artists that are out pacing their long term actual worth, will refuse to sell for less than they paid. But for how long.

There will be corrections. But I am not a fortune teller so I'll stop here. My feeling is that these behaviors will cause more people to see it my way and start spreading their money around on less expensive pieces, that have a legit shot to have real growth. The liquidity on 50x $1,000 pages gives more options when you need cash. The counter argument is when you need big money it's better and quicker to sell one valuable piece vs multiple lesser valued pieces. That's true if mass non resistant liquidity buyers are waiting. But will they be there? Will they low ball you? I think buying the right pieces at $1-2k would allow me to see a time where with patience I (exp.) resell and double my investment $50k to $100,000. How quickly will I resell a $50,000 piece that I buy from the October HA auction?  Maybe it holds it's value but what's the realistic chance of  growing that into $100k or more? Some purchases would be the exception of course, but I feel once the higher end five figures and up items go through HA today, the ROI on relists over the next 5-10 years might not make the average collector happy. Speculative I know and this is just my opinion. I'm trying to be as real as I can about how I'm experiencing these last few years.

Recap. Market is strong will hold up sky won't fall. However, a resistance to buying everything HA or the other auction houses (+dealers) have to offer at top dollar may cool off. Is there a new feeling in the air that makes us more selective? Maybe we seek answers to the question what's around the corner? Maybe a better piece of art for my money? or even a bit discounted as the market for OA adjusts to the economic realities of the world. The question some of us have to ask with our money and treasure on the sidelines is how do we proceed going forward?

For me I'm almost 100% not buying auctioned art.It's not easy because a majority of private collectors are terrified of selling to me or you and then seeing the page flipped, or "like" art lots selling for more than they got. I'm looking to buy from other collectors who will be happy to consider their cost basis and leave some meat on the bone for me while making a handsome ROI. It takes patience but over the last two + years I've found opportunities with very reasonable people But many pieces are coming, and will continue to go to auction. The OA community is addicted to seeing art performing exceedingly well because of buyer FOMO. But ask yourself, are you really afraid today you're going to miss out? For every "special"  piece I have watched slip away at auction, I'm soon slapped out of mourning by ten new pieces I've always hoped I'd see. Dare I say, in many ways I'm feeling meh. 

How are you all feeling?

Edited October 21, 2022 by grapeape

[vodou]

On 10/21/2022 at 5:24 AM, grapeape said:

How are you all feeling?

Great!

[Dr. Balls]

EXCELLENT post, Grape - thank you for the insight. I’m at the bottom end of the spectrum, looking for deals on solid pieces of art by a variety of artists - hoping that the next 20 years they achieve those gains we’ve been seeing the past few years.

I love art, and I love speculating (based on skills, composition, execution). I liked your comment on not selling a $50k piece and buying another $50k piece because the room for growth on the new purchase is much less than the one you bought years previous.

[Bronty]

On 10/21/2022 at 5:24 AM, grapeape said:

Here's the main thing I think about a lot with the Price/Value explosions over the last two years. When you were dealing with auction lots where items came in under a few thousand dollars, you could justify buying in, holding, flipping, whatever. I think we've reached a point now where the on average final sale price of aggregate auctions is at least making the consumer think do I buy at $25,000 on up with the same confidence (as we near the end of 2022) that in the event I need to re-enter that purchased art back into the auction/resale market will I at least CYA or take a minimum loss? I'm not too sure.

Some of my collection has reached a point where I'm hamstrung. If I sell some of my most valuable art, I would absolutely not reinvest in the pieces I'm seeing at auction today. In other words, if I sold a page and cleared $50k I would not buy another $50k piece or even two $25k pieces. I feel like the pages I'd be selling were significantly better values when I bought them, then what I could buy with my money today. I do believe the market is currently built to hold values. But buying up on current offered pieces that yes, may hold value, I ask myself, will they grow at 2,3, 5 times their purchased value? When? I'm in my mid-fifties and not sure I'll live long enough.

What I would do, and what I think to some degree is happening, is I would risk taking my auction gains and buying 50x $1,000 pages, or 25x $2,000 pages, even if that means taking chances on new artists who have shown at least a consistent record of holding value while selling out their published work through reps (like Felix) or selling their own work.

I would also buy more recent works, maybe going ten years back to current, on proven artists like Alan Davis and others like him who have a respected output over time. If their new stuff is real quality with little discernible loss of skill, I think my money is better spent here. Is Don Heck art going to be hot (for how long?) because we've seen three TOS 39 pages sell for fantastical prices? Sentimentally, I root for even the least revered artists to get their money recognition time in the sun. Especially while they are still living! Yet in my mind, I tell myself that they may "hold" their value but they are not the best places to spend my money or trade away my treasures. Some reasons those gains might not collapse is because of the sheer and stubborn will of dealers who want to hold prices at or above what people are willing to spend. Also, collectors who buy some of the artists that are out pacing their long term actual worth, will refuse to sell for less than they paid. But for how long.

There will be corrections. But I am not a fortune teller so I'll stop here. My feeling is that these behaviors will cause more people to see it my way and start spreading their money around on less expensive pieces, that have a legit shot to have real growth. The liquidity on 50x $1,000 pages gives more options when you need cash. The counter argument is when you need big money it's better and quicker to sell one valuable piece vs multiple lesser valued pieces. That's true if mass non resistant liquidity buyers are waiting. But will they be there? Will they low ball you? I think buying the right pieces at $1-2k would allow me to see a time where with patience I (exp.) resell and double my investment $50k to $100,000. How quickly will I resell a $50,000 piece that I buy from the October HA auction?  Maybe it holds it's value but what's the realistic chance of  growing that into $100k or more? Some purchases would be the exception of course, but I feel once the higher end five figures and up items go through HA today, the ROI on relists over the next 5-10 years might not make the average collector happy. Speculative I know and this is just my opinion. I'm trying to be as real as I can about how I'm experiencing these last few years.

Recap. Market is strong will hold up sky won't fall. However, a resistance to buying everything HA or the other auction houses (+dealers) have to offer at top dollar may cool off. Is there a new feeling in the air that makes us more selective? Maybe we seek answers to the question what's around the corner? Maybe a better piece of art for my money? or even a bit discounted as the market for OA adjusts to the economic realities of the world. The question some of us have to ask with our money and treasure on the sidelines is how do we proceed going forward?

For me I'm almost 100% not buying auctioned art.It's not easy because a majority of private collectors are terrified of selling to me or you and then seeing the page flipped, or "like" art lots selling for more than they got. I'm looking to buy from other collectors who will be happy to consider their cost basis and leave some meat on the bone for me while making a handsome ROI. It takes patience but over the last two + years I've found opportunities with very reasonable people But many pieces are coming, and will continue to go to auction. The OA community is addicted to seeing art performing exceedingly well because of buyer FOMO. But ask yourself, are you really afraid today you're going to miss out? For every "special"  piece I have watched slip away at auction, I'm soon slapped out of mourning by ten new pieces I've always hoped I'd see. Dare I say, in many ways I'm feeling meh. 

How are you all feeling?

I understand the focus on price because we all have to fit into a certain budget, but if you’re worried about returns I think it’s more instructive to think about what you’re buying and the attributes and demographics behind it versus worrying about the price today.   Obviously price today has its place in the considerations but what are you buying?   Five years ago we should all have been buying 90s image guys art if returns are what it’s about.    I hate that era so I couldn’t touch that art with a ten foot pole, but that was the play.    The demographics were right and the base of people that liked those books were there.    And now we've got six figure interior pages from some of those guys FFS.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Bronty