"Bring on the Deadpool and Rob McIlhenny" - Welcome to Wrexham! 1 1

[sfcityduck]

The power of TV, Wrexham's last game on ESPN+ got over 1M viewers (for a very minor league game) and then there's this:

 

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by sfcityduck

[piper]

On 11/7/2022 at 7:42 PM, sfcityduck said:

The power of TV, Wrexham's last game on ESPN+ got over 1M viewers (for a very minor league game) and then there's this:

 

 

Crazy! There's also scuttlebutt about Reynolds looking to buy the Ottawa Senators Hockey Team!

[ThothAmon]

Great watch. The least compelling parts of the show are the Hollywood stars. 

[sfcityduck]

On 11/8/2022 at 12:23 PM, ThothAmon said:

Great watch. The least compelling parts of the show are the Hollywood stars. 

Agreed. The story is about so much more than them.  I enjoy their bits - more so as the series progresses especially for Ryan Reynolds as you see him become a more and more engaged fan - but the show really is less about them then so many other things.

[Mr.TawkyTawny]

The odds-on favorite has won a Critics Choice Documentary Award.

[Beige]

I'm from England originally so this was a real find for me - they did really well to show just how much Football means to a town.

Rob seems to genuinely love the game and Wrexham AFC but Ryan - can't put my finger on it, but he seems the kind of owner who loves the good times - as he hasn't faced the bad. The Wembley box was cringeworthy for so many reasons - Will Ferrell was just excruciating.

 

Anyway, so here's the thing for me.

 

I went to over 600 EFL games home and away following my very rubbish team. Hope was everything.

And Rob / Ryan have given Wrexham hope.

 

But they failed, to be blunt.

 

Now I KNOW English football fans, know how they think. We like shiny things.

 

And a trip to Wembley and a play-off were shiny things.

 

Mullins and Palmer were shiny things. The new pitch was a shiny thing.

 

The challenge for Rob / Ryan this season coming has to be promotion - nothing else counts.

Because simply - the shiny things aren't new any more. Fans get fed up - and want new shiny things. Twas always the way in the EFL.

 

12,000 attendances for home games is not sustainable without winning pretty most of their games. That makes them top of the National League. And they need to stay there to keep getting the 12,000.

 

Wrexham is a dump - having been to the Racecourse ground in person, I can attest to that - it is a ehole par excellence.

 

And work is scarce - so £20 per game is a heap of £££ to people with no job.

 

Lose - and they aren't coming. Lose and they want new shiny things. Lose and heads have to roll.

And this is where I hope Rob especially has done his homework.

 

The wages Wrexham /Rob / Ryan are paying are insane - the signing of Mullins and Palmer add up to £800,000 in transfer fees and both are on £4,500 PER WEEK. Plus new contracts for Tozer and Jordan Davies put them on £3,500 per week each - the league average  wage is only £40 - 43,000 PER YEAR.

So they are paying massive overs.

 

The salary of most National League clubs is about  £900,000 in total.

Wrexham are paying (and they stated on the show the huge team salary) - £2,100,000 in wages - (Pre-Xmas figure and before signing Palmer) - making them the leagues highest paying team at around £3,100,000 PA.

Add on the £2,000,000 they paid for the club

Add the £300,000 for the pitch relay.

Plus Shaun Harvey (definitely NOT cheap - rumoured to be £500,000 PA) plus Phil Parkinson and Co - also not cheap (£500,000 PA for all coaches)

 

At the minimum Wrexham AFC have cost them £7,200,000 

 

WREXHAM AFC despite all the 'success' posted a LOSS of £1,770,000 this season (company accs)

 

Attendances, the Wembley run, and new sponsors were included in that loss - and this is where 'Welcome To Wrexham' comes into it's own.Or does it?

 

Various sources report that Season 1 netted them £2,000,000.

 

So a break-even in Year 1 essentially - and of course the social media boost will increase both revenue from the show (more viewers = more expensive ad's etc etc) plus more TV coverage of Wrexham.

 

But here is the problem for next year - Wrexham has a population of only 65,000 people.

Manchester (UTD and City), Liverpool (and Everton), Burnley, Wigan, Bolton, Crewe,Blackpool, Preston North End, Blackburn Rovers etc are all within 1hrs drive away.

Wrexham won't get extra fans from those areas.

Wrexham have sold 6,000 season tickets for next year (brilliant for the National League) - so that revenue is in the bank, leaving 6000 POTD spaces.

 

However - Rob / Ryan have now got council approval (9th Nov) for the new stand they want to build - at a cost of £90,000,000!!

Now the council and the Welsh Govt - (Thanks to Rob mainly with his endless hustle) will chip in £40,000,000.

 

I just don't see that Rob (net worth of 'only' $50,000,000) and Ryan (Net worth $150,000,000)  can go £50,000,000 plus running costs into the hole (plus another £5,000,000 in yearly running costs) and hope to make it out intact!

 

At best, Wrexham will break even on their playing side / day-to-day costs with promotion - and get a £1,000,000 bonus for doing so - plus more TV exposure.

 

But add that new stand on top?

 

It's going to be a huge financial strain running Wrexham - even for Ryan Reynolds - £55,000,000 ($60,000,000 USD at time of writing) - is a HUGE hit to Ryan and Rob - and the bills will keep coming, the wages will need paying, the stands still need painting....and that new stand needs to be paid for!

 

And if a poor run of form happens? If Wrexham are sitting mid-table?

 

Kiss goodbye to 12,000 attendances.

Kiss goodwill goodbye

Kiss sponsors goodbye

Kiss TV apps goodbye

Wrexham fans, and English football fans in general (jealousy is a person_without_enough_empathy eh?) will turn in a heartbeat - 'sign new players' 'sack the manager' - nothing is as nasty as lifelong football fans when they turn on you!

 

And that for me, is the fascinating thing about 'Welcome To Wrexham' - how they can do what no EFL team owner has ever done - make a profit out of a lowly team, whilst spending hand over fist - and when poo hits the fan - which it will - get themselves out of it, with their dignity and reputation intact.

I don't think Ryan has a clue about how deep the financial hole goes in English football - he's about to find out.

As for Rob - well, he may well lose EVERYTHING - in this - and won't that make fine TV.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Beige

[piper]

@Beige thank you for the comprehensive breakdown. I hope it works out for them.

Based on my watch of the documentary, they both really care about the well being of the community and that level of commitment seems unusual for the typical owner.

I think they’ll be ok financially as long as they get promoted to League 2. At last glance they were second in the table, so they are doing much better this season.

Cheers,

 

 

[Beige]

On 11/16/2022 at 11:20 AM, piper said:

@Beige thank you for the comprehensive breakdown. I hope it works out for them.

Based on my watch of the documentary, they both really care about the well being of the community and that level of commitment seems unusual for the typical owner.

I think they’ll be ok financially as long as they get promoted to League 2. At last glance they were second in the table, so they are doing much better this season.

Cheers,

 

 

That will certainly help the 'running costs' of the club.

That stand though - no way that generates £50,000,000 in income, even over 20 yrs. The duo have a 5 yr lease, so that's the timeframe they have to sort this out.

The L2 promotion bonus is helpful - and there are some 'tasty' fixtures there if they make it.

Fellow Welsh side Newport plus a host of Northern teams - but that won't cover anywhere near the cost of the stand.

 

Look they aren't stupid - they must have a 'cunning plan' as Baldrick would say - I can't wait to see how they make their money out of this.

[Cephusdog]

I assume the 2 year order for the series plus getting tik tok to sponsor the team netted a huge windfall. Essentially tik tok gets Rob and Ryan to stream adds for them, too (must be part of deal) so i'm sure that's factored into the fee they pay.

[revat]

The team might not be as profitable as they would like, but there's plenty of room for Rob and Ryan to negotiate side deals to mitigate losses of the team, namely things that can be promoted at the stadium or on the show that don't need to be paid for or taxed in the same ways, and worldwide merchandising and tv contracts, and theoretically escalating sponsor fees.  Or ads they do for sponsors even if the ads are not obviously related to the team.  Not to mention you can use the losses to offset taxable profits in other pursuits.

And there's a very good chance a whole host of incentives and bonuses and rate increases trigger if the team gets promoted.

 

Of course all of it is predicated on winning very soon.

 

[Beige]

On 11/16/2022 at 2:25 PM, Cephusdog said:

I assume the 2 year order for the series plus getting tik tok to sponsor the team netted a huge windfall. Essentially tik tok gets Rob and Ryan to stream adds for them, too (must be part of deal) so i'm sure that's factored into the fee they pay.

If you actually read the post above - 'Welcome' season 1 earned £2,000,000 - just enough for them to possibly break even.

The ads won't touch a £55,000,000 spend next season. Nowhere near.

[Beige]

On 11/17/2022 at 8:50 AM, revat said:

The team might not be as profitable as they would like, but there's plenty of room for Rob and Ryan to negotiate side deals to mitigate losses of the team, namely things that can be promoted at the stadium or on the show that don't need to be paid for or taxed in the same ways, and worldwide merchandising and tv contracts, and theoretically escalating sponsor fees.  Or ads they do for sponsors even if the ads are not obviously related to the team.  Not to mention you can use the losses to offset taxable profits in other pursuits.

And there's a very good chance a whole host of incentives and bonuses and rate increases trigger if the team gets promoted.

 

Of course all of it is predicated on winning very soon.

 

 

Going up only gets you £1,000,000 in prizemoney.

Side-deals and advertising are only profitable when people are watching, and you can get the produce (people in Sweden aren't going to buy Welsh Tractors!)

The ground only holds 12,000 people.

They will be on TV nationally only 1 or 2 times a year - the National league is tiny.

International ads are fine for international companies - and to be honest - Man Utd are 25 minutes away, so why pay big $$$ to sponsor Wrexham, when you can take out ads at Man Utd who are on WORLD TV every week.

There are 4 Premier League sides within 25 mins drive. Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City and Everton. As a sponsor, you would get way more bang for your $ with them.

 

Welcome To Wrexham is a cable show.

 

The Premier League is watched by a billion people every week - and that's who Rob and Ryan will be fighting against for sponsorship.

 

It's going to be a fascinating watch - not least how they plan to make the new stand cost-effective.

 

 

[Djangology]

What's the realistic level in the pyramid that the Wrexham market can sustainably support?

It's fun to look at a club like Brentford that was in League Two 20 years ago and playing in a 12,000 seat ground from a century earlier to see how far they've come. As a non-Brit, it's easy enough to understand how a club like Leeds could return to the Premier League and remain indefinitely; however, I don't have a good sense of just how big the economic gap is between Brentford and Wrexham.

[Beige]

On 11/17/2022 at 3:16 PM, Djangology said:

What's the realistic level in the pyramid that the Wrexham market can sustainably support?

It's fun to look at a club like Brentford that was in League Two 20 years ago and playing in a 12,000 seat ground from a century earlier to see how far they've come. As a non-Brit, it's easy enough to understand how a club like Leeds could return to the Premier League and remain indefinitely; however, I don't have a good sense of just how big the economic gap is between Brentford and Wrexham.

It's more about location and population.

Wrexham has 65,000 pop and is near 4 massive clubs, and 10 smaller ones.

 

Brentford is a suburb of London and has 10 big (and smaller) clubs nearby - Chelsea, Arsenal,Fulham,Spurs etc plus Charlton, Palace, Millwall etc etc - but in a City of 6,000,000 people - plus tourists.

I believe Brentford is the easiest club to get a ticket for a Premier League game - Fulham the cheapest - so those 2 get a fair few holidaymakers in London who want to see a 'big' football match.

 

Don't forget - Brentford just drew with Chelsea and beat Man City away!

Wrexham are in the National League.

I'd say the best Rob and Ryan could hope for was to get to L1 and yo-yo between L1 and L2 - go up from L2 to L1 take the prizemoney and extra TV revenue, get relegated, sell their best player, buy cheaper young hungry ones and try to go backup.

Wrexham is too small to sustain L1 and expect success (the costs are huge) - and the Championship would bankrupt the owners in 2 years.

Most Championship Clubs lost £30,000,000 - £35,000,000 this last season. You need either a wealthy patient owner, or parachute payments to survive in the Championship, and plenty of big clubs have fallen to League 1

Leeds Utd, Sunderland, Sheff Wed, Birmingham City, Aston Villa etc etc have all slipped into L1 at some point.

In the National League - at least 13 teams used to play in the Football League.

 

Very tough at the bottom.

 

L1 at best for Wrexham - L2 most likely.

 

Rob and Ryan need a cunning plan. That stadium cost is insane - I don't know why they think they need to spend £90,000,000 on a new stand. It seems way too expensive.And capacity only goes up by 3500.

As a comparison it only cost Bristol City FC  £45,000,000 to turn this:

Into this:

 

Rob and Ryan are spending 50% more on ONE stand.

It doesn't make any sense at all - is it poor reporting and it's the whole ground - or is the cost wrong - but that's all I'm seeing in UK papers.

 

It will be interesting - as I said - these guys could lose a serious amount of money.

[Loading...]

Reading the insights and breakdowns from @Beige on Wrexham has been a real eye opener and a heck of an interesting view into the true costs of what's on with the club and new owners. Thanks for taking the time to break it down for us who aren't familiar with the inner workings of a football club. It's appreciated!

[Djangology]

On 11/17/2022 at 2:43 PM, Beige said:

It's more about location and population.

Wrexham has 65,000 pop and is near 4 massive clubs, and 10 smaller ones.

 

Brentford is a suburb of London and has 10 big (and smaller) clubs nearby - Chelsea, Arsenal,Fulham,Spurs etc plus Charlton, Palace, Millwall etc etc - but in a City of 6,000,000 people - plus tourists.

I believe Brentford is the easiest club to get a ticket for a Premier League game - Fulham the cheapest - so those 2 get a fair few holidaymakers in London who want to see a 'big' football match.

 

Don't forget - Brentford just drew with Chelsea and beat Man City away!

Wrexham are in the National League.

I'd say the best Rob and Ryan could hope for was to get to L1 and yo-yo between L1 and L2 - go up from L2 to L1 take the prizemoney and extra TV revenue, get relegated, sell their best player, buy cheaper young hungry ones and try to go backup.

Wrexham is too small to sustain L1 and expect success (the costs are huge) - and the Championship would bankrupt the owners in 2 years.

Most Championship Clubs lost £30,000,000 - £35,000,000 this last season. You need either a wealthy patient owner, or parachute payments to survive in the Championship, and plenty of big clubs have fallen to League 1

Leeds Utd, Sunderland, Sheff Wed, Birmingham City, Aston Villa etc etc have all slipped into L1 at some point.

In the National League - at least 13 teams used to play in the Football League.

 

Very tough at the bottom.

 

L1 at best for Wrexham - L2 most likely.

 

Rob and Ryan need a cunning plan. That stadium cost is insane - I don't know why they think they need to spend £90,000,000 on a new stand. It seems way too expensive.And capacity only goes up by 3500.

As a comparison it only cost Bristol City FC  £45,000,000 to turn this:

Into this:

 

Rob and Ryan are spending 50% more on ONE stand.

It doesn't make any sense at all - is it poor reporting and it's the whole ground - or is the cost wrong - but that's all I'm seeing in UK papers.

 

It will be interesting - as I said - these guys could lose a serious amount of money.

Appreciate the info! Brentford proper is listed as having a smaller population (just under 28k as of 2011), but I assume there must be some additional pool of stable, long-term fans in the immediate vicinity? I would imagine the median household income in Brentford is higher than Wrexham as well? The whole Moneyball thing Brentford's done has been a great story itself. Being a solid mid-table club is very impressive given their resources.

Is the delta between the Bristol and Wrexham costs perhaps a death-by-a-thousand-cuts combination of Brexit, COVID, inflation, supply chain, etc.? Not sure how much construction has been impacted across the pond. Can't imagine those two would risk reputation damage by trying to engage in shenanigans.

Those losses in the Championship are eye-watering. I know there's a pot of gold for making it to the Prem - still, what a gamble!

[Beige]

On 11/19/2022 at 2:20 PM, Djangology said:

Appreciate the info! Brentford proper is listed as having a smaller population (just under 28k as of 2011), but I assume there must be some additional pool of stable, long-term fans in the immediate vicinity? I would imagine the median household income in Brentford is higher than Wrexham as well? The whole Moneyball thing Brentford's done has been a great story itself. Being a solid mid-table club is very impressive given their resources.

Is the delta between the Bristol and Wrexham costs perhaps a death-by-a-thousand-cuts combination of Brexit, COVID, inflation, supply chain, etc.? Not sure how much construction has been impacted across the pond. Can't imagine those two would risk reputation damage by trying to engage in shenanigans.

Those losses in the Championship are eye-watering. I know there's a pot of gold for making it to the Prem - still, what a gamble!

Err...Brentford is nearly central London!

 

[Djangology]

On 11/19/2022 at 3:41 AM, Beige said:

Err...Brentford is nearly central London!

 

The 28k population was from how Wikipedia defined "Brentford":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brentford

I have no idea how far Brentford's reach extends in any given direction before it is overtaken by other clubs, i.e. their "territory".

[sfcityduck]

A few things worth noting:

Wrexham AFC are the subject of the documentary not the owners of the documentary.  The club is paid $400k per hour of the doc.  I have seen the $3.2m for total income to AFC from Season 1.

The show is a hit. Rob and Ryan are likely each making much more from the doc than they paid for the team.

The stadium cost is (1) decreased by govt. funding, (2) undoubtedly spread out over many years via loans or bonds, (3) significantly defrayed by extra ticket income and extra income derived by the new indoor spaces for events in the stands, (4) will attract more non-AFC events to the venue, and (5) is being undertaken with significant investment bank advice so we can assume it makes financial sense.

Yes costs will increase as the team moves up leagues (as will income), but so does the value and potential value of the club. Rob and Ryan can bring on board additional ownership to boost capital. The value of EPL teams runs into the billions.

I see no reason to shed any tears for Rob and Ryan.

Edited November 23, 2022 by sfcityduck

[Cozmo-One]

Looks like next FA Cup match will be televised on ESPN