Rarity / Scarcity 4 4

[Raze]

On 10/27/2022 at 8:03 PM, Robot Man said:

I hope you didn’t have to pay “very scarce” prices for them…

Way less than whats on ebay! 

[Professor K]

On 10/27/2022 at 12:47 AM, Dr. Love said:

As regards your second question

Commonly, rarity speaks to value while scarcity speaks to availability relative to demand

Pretty good. I was thinking rarity refers to the actual number of them in existence while scarcity refers to how often they become available to procure.

That would also be relative to grade I suppose. For example Batman 1 through 9 arent rare, but in 8.5 and above they are pretty scarce. 

[LDarkseid1]

Would my copy of this be considered rare or scarce? I can’t find a copy for sale online, highest on the census is a 7.5 of 8 graded. A raw 1.5 sold in a heritage auction earlier this year for $94, and a raw approx. 3.0 just sold in a Heritage auction for $264.

I would say my copy is a 4.0-4.5.

[Robot Man]

On 10/28/2022 at 11:19 PM, LDarkseid1 said:

Would my copy of this be considered rare or scarce? I can’t find a copy for sale online, highest on the census is a 7.5 of 8 graded. A raw 1.5 sold in a heritage auction earlier this year for $94, and a raw approx. 3.0 just sold in a Heritage auction for $264.

I would say my copy is a 4.0-4.5.

Only in high grade I would guess. I have owned at least five of them. Highest being maybe a 6.0.

[Yorick]

Scarce.  Possibly rare.

[MusterMark]

On 10/27/2022 at 5:42 PM, Raze said:

If I share them I cant put "Rare / Scarce" in my sales thread title  

Here they are. I wanted the Approved Comics 9 for the Baker cover the post it said "Very Scarce Matt Baker Cover Golden Age!" and the Atomic Thunderbolt was a late add on to a multi book deal.

Rare/scarce? 

I own both of them.

 

[LDarkseid1]

On 10/29/2022 at 8:43 AM, Robot Man said:

Only in high grade I would guess. I have owned at least five of them. Highest being maybe a 6.0.

So maybe just somewhat rare. Since you’ve only owned 6 copies and not 7.

[Raze]

On 10/29/2022 at 1:52 PM, MusterMark said:

Rare/scarce? 

I own both of them.

 

I wanted to know the difference, and if there was a website.

Is the Approved comics 9 “scarce” like the claim, I think not. I still wanted it for the Matt Baker cover. Im also not claiming that they are, they were just example’s because someone asked.

I do see some ebay listing and books here on the boards with the “rare/scarce” in title and want to know where they get thier information.

 

[Yorick]

On 10/30/2022 at 2:29 PM, Raze said:

Is the Approved comics 9 “scarce” like the claim, I think not.

It's not rare, but it is scarce.  I don't generally see that issue available, but when I do it's typically very low grade.  I wouldn't expect to see a 0.5 on the census unless it was a tough issue (13 total census).  The census may be wrong too, however.  Early on, CGC didn't label the Approved Comics correctly.  There may be other copies lurking under the "Western Bandit Trails" title.

[Raze]

On 10/30/2022 at 4:57 PM, Yorick said:

It's not rare, but it is scarce.  I don't generally see that issue available, but when I do it's typically very low grade.  I wouldn't expect to see a 0.5 on the census unless it was a tough issue (13 total census).  The census may be wrong too, however.  Early on, CGC didn't label the Approved Comics correctly.  There may be other copies lurking under the "Western Bandit Trails" title.

Thats interesting to hear that CGC might have miss labeled the book. I did have a hard time finding out the title because I wasn't paying attention to the "Approved comics" logo. I was focusing in on Western Bandit Trails

But you are the first to say its "scarce". How do you come to that conclusion? Is there a website, or do you have a lifetime of knowledge from being a long time collector or dealer?

[Yorick]

On 10/30/2022 at 3:29 PM, Raze said:

But you are the first to say its "scarce". How do you come to that conclusion? Is there a website, or do you have a lifetime of knowledge from being a long time collector or dealer?

I don't have the years of collecting that others here do, but I've been very focused on my favorite artists.  Baker has been on my list for many years.  I would say I've followed the sales of his work for at least 10 years.  Some of his books I've only seen once for sale, and others have been seen plenty of times.  I also read what other collectors discuss regarding scarcity.  For Matt Baker, there was a nice book that John Benson put out titled "Confessions, Romances, Secrets, and Temptations" in which he provides his own experience in finding St John books (which matches nearly all of my own experience in finding certain books).

When you love some thing so much, the obsession pretty much makes a scholar of anyone.

[Cat-Man_America]

On 10/27/2022 at 5:32 AM, Readcomix said:

Over street used to provide their definitions of rare and scarce in the front of the guide, but I just flipped through #50 and cannot find anything, so I’m not sure if they define them the same way today. I can dig up an older guide later, but I recall they used to define rare as an estimated fewer than 20 copies in existence and scarce as an estimated 20 to 100 copies in existence. How exactly they arrived at these definitions and how they determined which books to apply these descriptors to was never stated clearly, as I recall. I always assumed they were anecdotal estimates made by Overstreet and his advisers based on the collective apocrypha about various known-to-be tough books.

The terms "rare" and "scarce" ...using GA as a point of reference... are best applied anecdotally without solid data establishing demand (IOW, value in the marketplace).  Scarcity index numbers would be much different today than say 20 years ago. Also, since it costs money to encapsulate & store books, undervalued comics are less likely to be submitted for grading.  The census numbers of those books will likely remain down a rabbit-hole of uncertainty for the foreseeable future or untill demand catches up.

Qalyar said something similar about Census scarcity being a self-fulfilling prophesy, but I'll add that this applies in both directions since valued books may occasionally be over-reported when resubmitted. Census numbers should be taken with a degree of healthy skepticism. Data flaws are possible ...in fact likely... from books being cracked out and resubmitted without labels in hopes of getting higher grades from one or more different graders. I'm sure CGC tries to catch this, but a collector or dealer concerned about grade comparisons may roll the dice and just seek a pre-screen if not doing a "full court" press resubmission prior to grading. This means some duplications in the Census probably exist, especially among bigger books in higher grades. Just sayin'.

My two cents, ...adjusted for inflation. 

 

 

[tth2]

On 10/31/2022 at 5:29 AM, Raze said:

I do see some ebay listing and books here on the boards with the “rare/scarce” in title and want to know where they get thier information.

[rjpb]

On 10/26/2022 at 9:47 PM, Dr. Love said:

As regards your second question

Commonly, rarity speaks to value while scarcity speaks to availability relative to demand

I hadn't thought of it this way, but it makes a lot of sense. Of course scarcity can fluctuate, and many a book thought "scarce" can become more abundant when high prices bring them out of the woodwork. In theory, truly rare books will always be hard to find. 

[Moondog]

On 10/27/2022 at 7:42 PM, Raze said:

If I share them I cant put "Rare / Scarce" in my sales thread title  

Here they are. I wanted the Approved Comics 9 for the Baker cover the post it said "Very Scarce Matt Baker Cover Golden Age!" and the Atomic Thunderbolt was a late add on to a multi book deal.

I've owned both.  I've had 3 copies of Thunderbolt 1.

[Robot Man]

Other than a book I’ve never noticed, is there any specific significance to Thunderbolt? 

[PDGray]

So, to put this into perspective.

If you were to look at the CGC Census and find that there were less than 10 graded copies or less than 20 graded copies - what does that mean?  Or does that have ANY meaning at all in relation to rarity or scarcity?

We know that there are a lot of books that have never been graded and therefore aren't counted, but do we discount those or simply use that as a basis?

Thoughts?

 

PDG

[Yorick]

On 11/9/2022 at 8:22 AM, PDGray said:

Thoughts?

Census data is primarily related to desirability & value.

[fifties]

On 11/9/2022 at 8:52 AM, Yorick said:

Census data is primarily related to desirability & value.

"Census data", AFA accuracy, only relates to the CGC census, and even that's not 100% accurate.  Personally I have 1-2 thousand raw pre code crime and horror books, none of which are in their census, and I have de-slabbed several dozen which were, as I've gotten them, which obviously skews their count. 

So IMO it's an artificial measurement that could be somewhat useful as a gauge, but it's certainly not the "be all end all" definitive authority.  There is simply no way to calculate how many of any specific title and issue are in the field.

[MusterMark]

On 11/9/2022 at 11:33 AM, fifties said:

"Census data", AFA accuracy, only relates to the CGC census, and even that's not 100% accurate.  Personally I have 1-2 thousand raw pre code crime and horror books, none of which are in their census, and I have de-slabbed several dozen which were, as I've gotten them, which obviously skews their count. 

So IMO it's an artificial measurement that could be somewhat useful as a gauge, but it's certainly not the "be all end all" definitive authority.  There is simply no way to calculate how many of any specific title and issue are in the field.

I don't know about that.  All one has to do is ask every person.  Simple.