Rarity / Scarcity 4 4

[Scrooge]

On 11/9/2022 at 2:37 PM, MusterMark said:

I don't know about that.  All one has to do is ask every person.  Simple.  

Even then ... I am sure there are books in boxes out there where the "caretaker" (relative, widow, kids, etc.) has no clue what is included in that stash.

[PDGray]

On 11/9/2022 at 1:33 PM, fifties said:

"Census data", AFA accuracy, only relates to the CGC census, and even that's not 100% accurate.  Personally I have 1-2 thousand raw pre code crime and horror books, none of which are in their census, and I have de-slabbed several dozen which were, as I've gotten them, which obviously skews their count. 

So IMO it's an artificial measurement that could be somewhat useful as a gauge, but it's certainly not the "be all end all" definitive authority.  There is simply no way to calculate how many of any specific title and issue are in the field.

 

Completely agree, but what COULD you do to get even a rough ballpark estimate? 

If there are 10 copies in the CGC census, would you think less than 20 exist?  50?  100?

For the discussion, I am only thinking of ways that you might be able to come up with a reasonable estimate.

 

PDG

 

[MusterMark]

On 11/9/2022 at 11:41 AM, Scrooge said:

On 11/9/2022 at 11:37 AM, MusterMark said:

I don't know about that.  All one has to do is ask every person.  Simple.  

Even then ... I am sure there are books in boxes out there where the "caretaker" (relative, widow, kids, etc.) has no clue what is included in that stash.

  You also have to ask all the boxes.

[pmpknface]

On 11/9/2022 at 2:47 PM, PDGray said:

 

Completely agree, but what COULD you do to get even a rough ballpark estimate? 

If there are 10 copies in the CGC census, would you think less than 20 exist?  50?  100?

For the discussion, I am only thinking of ways that you might be able to come up with a reasonable estimate.

 

PDG

 

I realize what your goal is, but I just don't think you can use that 1 metric as a guideline to figure out something else.  It's just not going to work.  The only person that gave it a reasonable shot was Steve Gerber, and what he did really is not feasible anymore.  You just have to pay attention to markets whether it's the boards, ebay, auction sites, shows, etc.. and see what you see and are able to get an educated opinion over a period of time.  

Take this book for example that I just posted in the "under 10 copies in the census" thread:

There are 5 there currently (this one will be #6) and it took me forever to locate a copy, but once I did I saw a few pop up here on the boards and ebay.  So I know they are out there.  I even first got an undercopy (much less nicer) just to fill my hole in the run but I was able to upgrade.  It's harder to get, but I'm not about to make a declaration on how many copies exist based off of it, just that it's harder to find than the other issues in the run.  And I bet there are a bunch of copies that people just haven't deemed grade worthy too.  There's just too many variables.  Good luck. 

[Ryan.]

I don't use the census as any realistically accurate way of determining if a book is scarce or not. There are lots and lots of books with a census count of zero because no one gives a fugg about them. However the census CAN be useful to verify when a book is definitely NOT scarce.

[MB1952]

On 10/30/2022 at 2:57 PM, Yorick said:

It's not rare, but it is scarce.  I don't generally see that issue available, but when I do it's typically very low grade.  I wouldn't expect to see a 0.5 on the census unless it was a tough issue (13 total census).  The census may be wrong too, however.  Early on, CGC didn't label the Approved Comics correctly.  There may be other copies lurking under the "Western Bandit Trails" title.

I just sold my copy for pennies. On bay

beautiful cover but not hard to find. 
rare in White pages. 

[fifties]

On 11/9/2022 at 11:47 AM, PDGray said:

 

Completely agree, but what COULD you do to get even a rough ballpark estimate? 

If there are 10 copies in the CGC census, would you think less than 20 exist?  50?  100?

For the discussion, I am only thinking of ways that you might be able to come up with a reasonable estimate.

 

PDG

 

I don't think there's a valid answer to that.  The CGC census is one measure, but not definitive by any means.  After all, there are plenty of books that simply aren't worth the expense of slabbing, so would seem rare on their census, but might be plentiful on eBay. OTOH, you may find a ton of DC's Superman/Batman/Detective comics having been slabbed and on their census, but yet HTF in the raw on eBay or with dealers.

Personally, I keep an eye on eBay and HA for books that I either don't have, or want to upgrade.  They are not the only sources of course, but the most visible.  Certain PCH have taken me 10-20 years to upgrade, so I would GUESS that they are somewhat rare.

[RareHighGrade]

On 11/9/2022 at 8:22 AM, PDGray said:

So, to put this into perspective.

If you were to look at the CGC Census and find that there were less than 10 graded copies or less than 20 graded copies - what does that mean?  Or does that have ANY meaning at all in relation to rarity or scarcity?

We know that there are a lot of books that have never been graded and therefore aren't counted, but do we discount those or simply use that as a basis?

Thoughts?

 

PDG

The higher the FMV of the book, the more relevant is the CGC census data.  If a $50 book has less than 5 copies in the census, the census data is meaningless.  But if the book has a FMV in the 4 figures or higher, then the fact there are less than 5 copies in the census is a very good indicator that the book is uncommon or rare.

[PDGray]

I love these discussions.  I find that I learn a lot from this forum and appreciate the knowledge and wisdom that you all share.  Over the years I have had a number of GA books, but haven't really been a hardcore GA collector.  Mostly, I have focused on silver age books, so I know a fair amount about those, but the GA world is completely different and there are so many ways to go with it.  Some of you have seen me posting about my pedigree books, but those have kind of led me to learn and discover more and more about the GA world.  Thank you!

 

PDG

[Robot Man]

On 11/9/2022 at 6:57 PM, fifties said:

I don't think there's a valid answer to that.  The CGC census is one measure, but not definitive by any means.  After all, there are plenty of books that simply aren't worth the expense of slabbing, so would seem rare on their census, but might be plentiful on eBay. OTOH, you may find a ton of DC's Superman/Batman/Detective comics having been slabbed and on their census, but yet HTF in the raw on eBay or with dealers.

Personally, I keep an eye on eBay and HA for books that I either don't have, or want to upgrade.  They are not the only sources of course, but the most visible.  Certain PCH have taken me 10-20 years to upgrade, so I would GUESS that they are somewhat rare.

I track a lot of books on auction sites that I already have. Gives me a good idea of things that rarely turn up. I am astonished almost daily what books are going for now that I bought decades ago.

You can bet that if and when I decide to sell, most of them will go to auction rather than just price and sell out right. 

[fifties]

On 11/9/2022 at 9:05 PM, RareHighGrade said:

The higher the FMV of the book, the more relevant is the CGC census data. 

Only for sales valuation purposes.  Let's not confuzzle FMV -which is based on demand- with how rare or scarce a book is.

[tth2]

On 11/10/2022 at 1:05 PM, RareHighGrade said:

But if the book has a FMV in the 4 figures or higher, then the fact there are less than 5 copies in the census is a very good indicator that the book is uncommon or rare.

And also a good indicator that the best copy is in your collection!

[tth2]

On 11/11/2022 at 2:39 AM, fifties said:

On 11/10/2022 at 1:05 PM, RareHighGrade said:

The higher the FMV of the book, the more relevant is the CGC census data. 

Only for sales valuation purposes.  Let's not confuzzle FMV -which is based on demand- with how rare or scarce a book is.

What RHG is saying is that if a book is worth a lot of money and copies still aren't coming out of the woodworks to be slabbed and sold, then it's probably an indicator that the book really IS rare/scarce (i.e., there are no woodworks for them to emerge from), in which case the Census DOES provide a relatively accurate barometer of rarity/scarcity.  

[fifties]

On 11/10/2022 at 3:40 PM, tth2 said:

What RHG is saying is that if a book is worth a lot of money and copies still aren't coming out of the woodworks to be slabbed and sold, then it's probably an indicator that the book really IS rare/scarce (i.e., there are no woodworks for them to emerge from), in which case the Census DOES provide a relatively accurate barometer of rarity/scarcity.  

Well maybe yes, maybe no.  True collectors -who buy to read, enjoy, and keep their books- are still not gonna submit them for encapsulation on that basis.  As I had posted previously, the CGC census could be somewhat useful as a gauge, but it's just one tool.

[buttock]

On 11/10/2022 at 5:42 PM, fifties said:

Well maybe yes, maybe no.  True collectors -who buy to read, enjoy, and keep their books- are still not gonna submit them for encapsulation on that basis.  As I had posted previously, the CGC census could be somewhat useful as a gauge, but it's just one tool.

"True collectors"

[Yorick]

On 11/10/2022 at 4:42 PM, fifties said:

True collectors -who buy to read

Personally, with a rare or scarce book, I want the best protection I can get for it.  I'm so obsessed with these old books that I've even had a Qualified 0.5 graded!!

There's room for everyone in this sandbox.  "True Collector" always makes me laugh. 

[Sarg]

On 10/27/2022 at 4:45 PM, fifties said:

Here's Ernie Gerber's scarcity index;  Keep in mind though that it was done "pre-internet".  If it had been done this century, the numbers might look different.  There is no reference to money value, nor should there be, since that depends on demand.  A copy of Phantom Lady is certainly going to be worth far more than a different comic book female, such as Little Lulu.

"Unique - less than five copies known" is a non-sequitur. "Unique" means only one. 

Also, "200-1000" is so non-specific as to be almost meaningless.

[fifties]

On 11/11/2022 at 10:45 AM, Yorick said:

Personally, with a rare or scarce book, I want the best protection I can get for it.  I'm so obsessed with these old books that I've even had a Qualified 0.5 graded!!

There's room for everyone in this sandbox.  "True Collector" always makes me laugh. 

I seem to be taking some hits on this phrase, so allow me to clarify my meaning, which was in no way meant to be condescending.  It seems to me, that with the advent of professional grading by CGC and other companies, and encapsulation, the comic book collecting field has emerged as a two tier system; collectors, AKA "true collectors", & investors.  

Many of us buy these books to read, or maybe we just enjoy drooling over the cover artwork, but regardless, once they are in our meathooks, they ain't going nowhere.  Not to be slabbed, nor put up for sale.  

My son got me a computer, & on the internet in 1998, with an email account and a bookmark for eBay.  OMG I was in 7th heaven; all those yummy crime and horror comic books suddenly available.  But available as well to everyone else that also collected the genre.  So after years of availability on the internet, all the collectors have filled their boxes, and now there ain't much left in the wild.  

So do these resultant private accumulations across the country make the books now scarce or rare?  I would suggest that it's a moving target, and books that were once plentiful for accumulation are no longer, simply because they are being hoarded.  

Conclusion, marketplace wise, yes, scarce/rare and they are costing a relative fortune, vs 20 years ago.  Real world wise, maybe not so much; they are simply being held out of circulation.

[Yorick]

On 11/11/2022 at 4:55 PM, fifties said:

because they are being hoarded

I certainly do that.

On 11/11/2022 at 4:55 PM, fifties said:

on the internet in 1998, with an email account and a bookmark for eBay.

And because of your long tenure searching for these fantastic books, you kind of have an idea of what's available (scarce, rare, or whatever).  YOU know what's scarce.  We gotta try and help a newbie out!

I do have a book or two that I bought graded, but for which there are no good scans available online for me to read.  I've been privately pestering any other collector with a raw copy for some scans, but I may just need to crack some books out and take pictures for myself.

[fifties]

On 11/11/2022 at 5:26 PM, Yorick said:

I certainly do that.

And because of your long tenure searching for these fantastic books, you kind of have an idea of what's available (scarce, rare, or whatever).  YOU know what's scarce.  We gotta try and help a newbie out!

I do have a book or two that I bought graded, but for which there are no good scans available online for me to read.  I've been privately pestering any other collector with a raw copy for some scans, but I may just need to crack some books out and take pictures for myself.

I can only say that the genres I collect, PCH & some crime, are now very "scarce" AFA purchasing availability, given their dearth on eBay and astronomical realized prices on HA, Comic Link, & Comic Connect.  EC Comics used to be all over the place in VG and up condition, and  at affordable prices.  NOW try and find them in ANY condition.  They exist, but few are available in the marketplace.

AFA reading online, you might try these sources;

https://comicbookplus.com/

https://viewcomics.me/comic-list?c=a

https://readcomiconline.li/