Rarity / Scarcity 4 4

[Ryan.]

On 11/11/2022 at 7:55 PM, fifties said:

seems to me, that with the advent of professional grading by CGC and other companies, and encapsulation, the comic book collecting field has emerged as a two tier system; collectors, AKA "true collectors", & investors.  

There's a third tier, which probably represents the vast majority of the people on these boards.

[Yorick]

On 11/11/2022 at 8:58 PM, fifties said:

AFA reading online, you might try these sources;

https://comicbookplus.com/

https://viewcomics.me/comic-list?c=a

https://readcomiconline.li/

It seems that these all share the same scans.  I am familiar with them, and rechecking my list I see that there are a few NEW scans that I didn't have.  Still, most of the interiors I need are scanned from microfiche and are terrible.

[fifties]

On 11/12/2022 at 4:05 AM, Ryan. said:

There's a third tier, which probably represents the vast majority of the people on these boards.

What would be the definition of the third tier?

[Ryan.]

On 11/12/2022 at 3:27 PM, fifties said:

What would be the definition of the third tier?

Those, like myself, who both collect for hoarding purposes and also collect for investment purposes, who do buy and keep certain books with the intention of keeping forever while also targeting other books with the express intent to flip in order to fund the other side. Like most things in life there is a huge middle ground between both extremes.

[fifties]

On 11/12/2022 at 12:39 PM, Ryan. said:

Those, like myself, who both collect for hoarding purposes and also collect for investment purposes, who do buy and keep certain books with the intention of keeping forever while also targeting other books with the express intent to flip in order to fund the other side. Like most things in life there is a huge middle ground between both extremes.

An excellent observation, thank you.

  I would agree that that may indeed be the largest tier, but certainly leans toward collectors, rather than straight investors.  Personally, I will sell an undercopy once I have bought the particular issue in a better grade; usually, but not always.  Before the advent of being able to read a book online, I would sell those having stories that weren't worth re-reading.

[Raze]

On 11/7/2022 at 9:44 AM, Robot Man said:

Other than a book I’ve never noticed, is there any specific significance to Thunderbolt? 

Not that I can see. Mycomicshop.com says "First appearances of the Atomic Thunderbolt, Rigor and Mortix, Mr. Murdo, and Wally Wanderlust."

 

[Raze]

Thanks for the knowledge and thoughts on this subject! Ive always seen sellers say "rare or scarce" in listing and didn't really know what to think about it. There are so many books Ive never seen so my limited knowledge won't help me.

For the record I never thought or was claiming that ether of the 2 books I listed where "rare/scarce" 

[Raze]

On 11/9/2022 at 5:16 PM, MB1952 said:

I just sold my copy for pennies. On bay

beautiful cover but not hard to find. 
rare in White pages. 

Nice looking copy! I didn't see your listing, I was wanting to see how many "pennies" you got...

[Yorick]

On 11/12/2022 at 7:13 PM, Raze said:

Nice looking copy! I didn't see your listing, I was wanting to see how many "pennies" you got...

I think any longer term Baker collector has taken a hit when reselling.  I had a Going Steady 11 (scarce) sell for about $15 when I bought it the year before for about $75. 

[Ryan.]

On 11/14/2022 at 5:30 PM, Yorick said:

I think any longer term Baker collector has taken a hit when reselling.  I had a Going Steady 11 (scarce) sell for about $15 when I bought it the year before for about $75. 

I've tried my best to purge from my memory all Bakers I've sold for stupid low prices.

[MB1952]

On 11/12/2022 at 7:13 PM, Raze said:

Nice looking copy! I didn't see your listing, I was wanting to see how many "pennies" you got...

Less then 30,000 Pennie’s if I recall. 

[MB1952]

On 11/14/2022 at 2:37 PM, Ryan. said:

I've tried my best to purge from my memory all Bakers I've sold for stupid low prices.

I feel you. I purchased Baker dirt cheap sell for profit. Later it’s jumps even more in value now looks like I sold dirt cheap. When will the cycle end 

[Robot Man]

On 11/14/2022 at 2:37 PM, Ryan. said:

I've tried my best to purge from my memory all Bakers I've sold for stupid low prices.

I often gaze at most of mine and realize how little I paid. pays to be a  and hung on to them…

[PDGray]

Ok, so let's use an example.

Let's say that there is a book with 10 copies on the CGC census.  Would you guess that there are less than 20 copies that exist?  less than 50 copies that exist?

Is there any correlation there at all?  And I know - you can never be certain, but just as a starting point.

What about books with 20 on the census?  Less than 50 total copies still around?  Or would you think less than 30 copies may exist.

I know the scarcity rating (I don't have that book yet), but is that even relevant in the days of the internet?  I would imagine that it has lost much of its validity these days.

Thanks for all of the discussion here!

 

PDG

[fifties]

On 11/17/2022 at 8:02 AM, PDGray said:

Ok, so let's use an example.

Let's say that there is a book with 10 copies on the CGC census.  Would you guess that there are less than 20 copies that exist?  less than 50 copies that exist?

Is there any correlation there at all?  And I know - you can never be certain, but just as a starting point.

What about books with 20 on the census?  Less than 50 total copies still around?  Or would you think less than 30 copies may exist.

I know the scarcity rating (I don't have that book yet), but is that even relevant in the days of the internet?  I would imagine that it has lost much of its validity these days.

Thanks for all of the discussion here!

 

PDG

For reasons previously discussed in this thread, i.e. comics with little collector value not worth slabbing, vs in-demand books definitely worth slabbing if one is an investor or a cover collector, I don't see any ability to correlate an artificial census with real world holdings in collections or books in the wild, stored in an attic or a trunk.  The CGC census might be a tool for the desirable books, but certainly not all books.  Even then, just a tool, not a definitively reliable last word.  This is something that simply cannot be nailed down with any degree of accuracy.  JMO.

[pmpknface]

On 11/18/2022 at 12:52 AM, fifties said:

For reasons previously discussed in this thread, i.e. comics with little collector value not worth slabbing, vs in-demand books definitely worth slabbing if one is an investor or a cover collector, I don't see any ability to correlate an artificial census with real world holdings in collections or books in the wild, stored in an attic or a trunk.  The CGC census might be a tool for the desirable books, but certainly not all books.  Even then, just a tool, not a definitively reliable last word.  This is something that simply cannot be nailed down with any degree of accuracy.  JMO.

Exactly.  I came across a perfect example of this yesterday.  I'll try not to be too long winded...

So I was looking at what was up for grabs on the new CL auction and found this book which they had listed as "scarce" so I decided to check the census.  Here's the book (not my copy):

According to the census it's only 1 of 7 graded, so ok - maybe it is on the scarce side.  I have a pretty nice copy (I always loved this cover and it's amazing in hand!) that is not yet graded so I thought that was cool, but I decided to check the rest of the run (41-49).  What I found was that 41-48 all had less than 10 copies graded, with only #48 having 11!  WOW!  I didn't think this run was really "that" scarce!  

Now, the #49 is MUCH more popular of a cover and even designated a classic.  When I looked up that one I found that there were 56 graded.  And I can at least say there will be 57 as mine is waiting to be slabbed in the CGC vault.  

So you can't tell me there are very few copies of the earlier issues and a ton of 1 issue, especially the last in the run.  It's just that the #49 is a killer cover and more sought after so it's graded more often.  These census numbers have no actual bearing on how many copies really exist.  

</END_RANT>  

[ThothAmon]

On 11/18/2022 at 9:23 AM, pmpknface said:

#49 is a killer cover

 

[Ryan.]

On 11/18/2022 at 9:23 AM, pmpknface said:

Now, the #49 is MUCH more popular of a cover and even designated a classic.  When I looked up that one I found that there were 56 graded.  And I can at least say there will be 57 as mine is waiting to be slabbed in the CGC vault.  

58 once mine is broken free from the CGC void.

[tth2]

On 11/18/2022 at 12:02 AM, PDGray said:

Ok, so let's use an example.

Let's say that there is a book with 10 copies on the CGC census.  Would you guess that there are less than 20 copies that exist?  less than 50 copies that exist?

Is there any correlation there at all?  And I know - you can never be certain, but just as a starting point.

What about books with 20 on the census?  Less than 50 total copies still around?  Or would you think less than 30 copies may exist.

I know the scarcity rating (I don't have that book yet), but is that even relevant in the days of the internet?  I would imagine that it has lost much of its validity these days.

Thanks for all of the discussion here!

 

PDG

Seriously?  Have you not read the rest of this thread? 

[PDGray]

On 11/18/2022 at 8:44 AM, tth2 said:

Seriously?  Have you not read the rest of this thread? 

Yes, I have read everything several times.  

Maybe I am not as clear as I am aiming to be with my question, so please forgive me and bear with me - sometimes I am not as clear as I wish to be.

I am only asking for a more educated, well-versed guess as to if there is a ratio to get ANY sort of ballpark estimates on the number of any given title existing anymore.  I don't believe that CGC has all the information by any stretch, but they do provide a nice baseline with the census.  But would you (or anyone else) guess that  X% of any given title of GA books have been graded on average?  The statistician in me wants something to plug in there just to get a rough estimate.

I like the idea of the Gerber books and will hopefully find a set of them at some point, but as has been pointed out - that was pre-internet, so I kind of discount that source due to the lack of wider knowledge.

Thirty-odd years ago, I was told that there were probably less than 50 GA books of any title that existed any longer.  This has obviously been proven wrong many times over.  So, back to that statistician - I KNOW that there is some sort of average ratio and the puzzle solver part of me wants to figure that part out.

So, between those of us on the board who enjoy or collect GA books consider this example:

Person 1 estimates 10% are graded - ok

Person 2 estimates 20% are graded - ok

Person 3 estimates 30% are graded - ok

Person 4 estimates 40% are graded - ok

This would average out to 25% between knowledgeable people who have followed this particular area of collecting.  From that information, we could extrapolate that if there are 10 books on the census and 25% were graded that maybe 40 copies of that particular book may yet be out there.  Some may never see the light of day - and that's ok.  I am only asking for opinions, and I know those may or may not be accurate.

This is not going to be truly scientific, but it collectively gets a starting point to establish or re-establish some sort of baseline that may be closer to what Gerber did with his books.  I know there may be cases where ALL the copies of any given book may be graded, or there may not be any on the census at all.

For another example:  

I own a Tarzan #76 from the Dell Run from 1956.  I own the Bethlehem copy graded at a 9.6.  Currently there are only 8 copies graded, yet there are 16 listed on ebay as of today.  So, I KNOW that ratio is less than 33% graded based on this data alone.  It's not a key issue, it's not hugely valuable, but it is a GA book.  I can probably conjecture that there are more copies sitting in collections, closets, and boxes somewhere that are unaccounted for.  So, let's double the total number of copies from the 24 we can account for to 48 total.  So, I can then use that number to guess that 16.6% have been graded.

Let's take it to another book I own.  Tip Top Comics 62 from 1941.  There are three graded copies on the census.  An ebay search shows one graded and one ungraded copy.  This gives me knowledge that there are a minimum of four copies that exist.  75% of the known copies are graded.  So, let's extend our same logic and double the copies that are known from the 4 we can account for up to 8.  We could extrapolate that of our 8 possible copies 3 are graded which would give us that 37.5% of copies have been graded.

We could do this for any number of books and mostly I understand that it's a guess at best.  However, statistically, if we were to use those TWO books as a small sample - then we could average the two numbers - 16.6 + 37.5 = 54.1, then divide 54.1/2 = 27.05%.  Meaning that roughly 27.05% of GA books might be graded.

Taking this to the next step - pick any book at random from that time frame. 

Jumbo Comics 89 - shows 22 copies on the census.  If we estimate that 27% have been graded then you take the 22 and divide that by .27 and come up with the possibility of about 81 copies total out there - counting the graded copies.

Batman 57 - shows 75 copies on the census.  Using the same ratio - we would come up with an estimate of 211 copies potentially out there.

Master Comics 66  - shows 9 copies on the census.  With this same ratio - it would give us an estimate of 33 copies total.

 

My percentages to start with are random - the 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% are just numbers I made up - so do NOT count on those.  But hopefully, this explains what I was/am asking for and why.

Maybe it's a pointless exercise in futility, but if we could roughly work this out - it might be interesting, and of course I would share anything I found or discovered with the community.

Thank you!

 

PDG