Sell or wait in today's down market?
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103 posts in this topic

I've got a TTA 27 and 35 (both blue label, 4.0 and 4.5 respectively) to sell and with the current market I'm totally lost on when is the best time to sell. I figured the best time to sell would be at the time of the trailer but I haven't seen any evidence of the bump that has typically happened in this situations.  I'm sure it's a combination of fringe collectors bailing,  existing collectors getting out of that cycle,  the recession,  etc. But now I really can't decide if waiting will just result in lower returns. 

I know nobody has a magical crystal ball, but I'd love to hear and weigh any opinions.  Thanks!

 

 

Edited by serling1978
Typo!!!!!
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On 10/27/2022 at 7:49 PM, serling1978 said:

I've got a TTA 27 and 35 (both blue label, 4.0 and 4.5 respectively) to sell and with the current market I'm totally lost on when is the best time to sell. I figured the best time to sell would be at the time of the trailer but I haven't seen any evidence of the bump that has typically happened in this situations.  I'm sure it's a combination of fringe collectors bailing,  existing collectors getting out of that cycle,  the recession,  etc. But now I really can't decide if waiting will just result in lower returns. 

I know nobody has a magical crystal ball, but I'd love to hear and weigh any opinions.  Thanks!

 

 

Those are what I'd call "blue chip" comics, meaning they're always going to be desirable, especially if they're blue label CGC books. Prices may be coming down right now, but these things tend to be cyclical, and predicting the "right time" to sell can be tricky.

There's no harm in testing the waters, though...  hm  

 

 

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On 10/28/2022 at 10:04 AM, The Lions Den said:

Those are what I'd call "blue chip" comics, meaning they're always going to be desirable, especially if they're blue label CGC books. Prices may be coming down right now, but these things tend to be cyclical, and predicting the "right time" to sell can be tricky.

There's no harm in testing the waters, though...  hm  

 

 

I guess it depends on what the OP paid for the books.  If the buy-in was less than current sale prices, it might be worth jumping out and buying something else with the money.   If selling at current prices means taking a loss, maybe hold on & hope you get your investment back with a future MCU bump.:wishluck:

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Check out these two graphs.  The upper graph shows the fluctuation of the Fed Funds Rate (read: interest rate) over the past 70 years.  The lower graph shows the variation in M2 (a broad measure of money supply) during the same period.  The true anomalies are (1) the near-0% rates in effect from 2009-2022 and (2) the near-vertical spike in M2 in 2020.  These anomalies have led to huge distortions in the "value" of all collectibles, not just comics.

Do you expect a return to 0% interest rates?  Do you think we could never again see 10+% interest rates?  hm

FedFundsRate.thumb.png.2e7e55a88fcf1081cb7762eb6b3e5652.png

M2.thumb.png.2ac9ecb05d517d8a3a3a9717790e08ef.png

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On 10/28/2022 at 9:52 AM, Robot Man said:

Flip them and buy classic GA PCH and GGA books. Anything with a babe chained to a wheel will never let you down…:devil:

That's my 10-year plan with my GA collection. Horror will always be in, and the survivability of GA books is way lower than the other ages, so eventually as more people gravitate to GA over the next few years, I think the demand will surge prices on books, especially once we really start seeing how few of these books are around anymore.

Personally, the "when" of selling a book depends on my rate of return versus how long I've held it. Have you held it for a few years and want a 40% return? Have you held it for 6 months and can live with a 10% return? Is FOMO on future profit keeping you from selling it now for a realistic gain?  Do you sell lots of comics that give you variable rates of returns that can culminate into a profit? So many variables on selling.

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I would expect the FMV floor for blue-chip books like that to be about 25% over FMV at the end of 2019 (10% from inflation and 15% from sustainable increased collector demand).  I don't know where they are now, but I anticipate prices over the next 6 months to approach that bottom without going below.  I suspect they will stay there for a while.     

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