Sell or wait in today's down market? 1 1

[1Cool]

On 12/12/2022 at 11:41 AM, Lothran said:

I disagree. Falling prices are great for those that plan on reselling when the market flips.

I have been slowly grabbing deals on popular keys that I can resell later. I have no issue hodling for a year+ for a nice return. I plan on DCA buying all the way down.

Not a bad way to go if you think the market will rebound in the next couple years to even higher levels.  I'm not sure if we will see prices rebound back to the sky high levels realized last year for a long while but it's all speculation at that point.  The issue with multi year holds with key books is the anticipated gains may not be worth the cash being held up for years on end.  Buying a $2K book that dropped from $3K to wait two years to realize a few hundred dollar profit when it goes back up (fees taking the difference) isn't great money management especially if you think there is better money to be made in stocks or bonds.  The next 12 - 18 months will be interesting so I hope your buy and hold strategy pays off.

[Lothran]

On 12/12/2022 at 12:53 PM, 1Cool said:

Not a bad way to go if you think the market will rebound in the next couple years to even higher levels.  I'm not sure if we will see prices rebound back to the sky high levels realized last year for a long while but it's all speculation at that point.  The issue with multi year holds with key books is the anticipated gains may not be worth the cash being held up for years on end.  Buying a $2K book that dropped from $3K to wait two years to realize a few hundred dollar profit when it goes back up (fees taking the difference) isn't great money management especially if you think there is better money to be made in stocks or bonds.  The next 12 - 18 months will be interesting so I hope your buy and hold strategy pays off.

It's a gamble either way. No one knows exactly what is going to happen, but markets are cyclical.

I have a pretty diverse investment strategy and by no means am I putting everything into comics. However, if I can get a 10-15% return in a year-ish then that's a better return in a typical market.

I think my DCA plan is going to do pretty well. I'm not picking up any fly-by-night keys hoping they turn into something profitable later on, I'm only buying issues that are and will be in demand. (with the exception of one specific comic I am speculating on)

For example, I believe I'll be in a good position from picking up beautiful raw copies of X-Men 266s for under $100 when the market turns.

[fastballspecial]

On 12/12/2022 at 10:47 AM, Stefan_W said:

I dunno. I found the toughest market for selling comics was when it was at its peak and the prices were sky high. People can only afford to go to a certain point, so unless you were ok with sending them to an auction house there were crickets chirping when trying to move most books. The start of the downswing was even worse because people were just looking for steals and were ok with waiting for the desperation to set in on the part of sellers. The best market for selling has reasonably priced key books that people can afford, and features a gradual increase in overall values over time so people can feel secure in their investments. 

If you are bleeding your customers any market is going to be tough. When to a show locally this weekend. Long time seller sells his book for $1 each. Some nice buys in there even some $10 books. He literally sold around 4 long boxes of them this weekend, plus some priced and wall books, but there were only 4 dealers at that show selling comics so sometimes its a benefit. The sky isnt falling for dealers who price fairly. Its the influencers, whatnot bleeders and others that will die first. 

The average joe comic seller who has been thru this before will be fine. Diversification is the key.

Edited December 13, 2022 by fastballspecial

[fastballspecial]

On 12/12/2022 at 11:53 AM, 1Cool said:

On 12/12/2022 at 10:41 AM, Lothran said:

I disagree. Falling prices are great for those that plan on reselling when the market flips.

I have been slowly grabbing deals on popular keys that I can resell later. I have no issue hodling for a year+ for a nice return. I plan on DCA buying all the way down.

Not a bad way to go if you think the market will rebound in the next couple years to even higher levels.  I'm not sure if we will see prices rebound back to the sky high levels realized last year for a long while but it's all speculation at that point.  The issue with multi year holds with key books is the anticipated gains may not be worth the cash being held up for years on end.  Buying a $2K book that dropped from $3K to wait two years to realize a few hundred dollar profit when it goes back up (fees taking the difference) isn't great money management especially if you think there is better money to be made in stocks or bonds.  The next 12 - 18 months will be interesting so I hope your buy and hold strategy pays off.

All depends what you are buying at. The new tax rules will push out several online sellers. I can tell you now I have a waiting list for dealers at my local shows and I know why they are trying to avoid taxes which just screws up their sales, but they don't listen.  So while prices fall there will be less sellers to get the books from so it may all work out there. 

The last 1.5 years of sales are dead and gone. You will never see that again in your lifetime. As it crashes if it does just pick up the cheap stuff as it comes long. Nothing wrong with selling comics for $1 all day long. I know several sellers who have done that for years. 

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by fastballspecial

[the blob]

On 12/12/2022 at 12:45 PM, 1Cool said:

If you are trying to sell hot key books then I agree the last couple years must have had it's pitfalls since prices for some books hit crazy prices that became out of reach of most people.  The last few years have been great for common book sellers just because prices went up across the board and instant hot books popped up so often that it was like shooting fish in a barrel in terms of making money.  Knowledge became power in that case since grabbing the $2 book from the longboxes that just became $50 is all about timing and the quick flip ability.  I unfortunately think those days are dead or dying.  I don't think we will ever see another frenzy like we saw over the last couple years.  

you are making me cry

[Lothran]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:37 PM, fastballspecial said:

The last 1.5 years of sales are dead and gone. You will never see that again in your lifetime.

We'll see if this holds true, but I don't agree with the assessment.

A lot of people are speculating that the comic market has passed it's prime, but I believe it's just getting started and we are in a consolidation phase.

I think the market will rebound around Q2-Q3, but will crash again in 2024.

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

Crash baby crash!

[1Cool]

On 12/13/2022 at 8:24 AM, Lothran said:

We'll see if this holds true, but I don't agree with the assessment.

A lot of people are speculating that the comic market has passed it's prime, but I believe it's just getting started and we are in a consolidation phase.

I think the market will rebound around Q2-Q3, but will crash again in 2024.

Why do you think we will see a rebound at the end of the year but then crash in 2024?  You expecting the upcoming movies this year to push the market back up and then interest will wane in 2024?  That is not my opinion but I'm interested to hear your theory.

[Lothran]

On 12/13/2022 at 9:10 AM, 1Cool said:

Why do you think we will see a rebound at the end of the year but then crash in 2024?  You expecting the upcoming movies this year to push the market back up and then interest will wane in 2024?  That is not my opinion but I'm interested to hear your theory.

With the stagflation that is happening and the current energy market, the Fed is trying to balance their response with quantitative easing and interest rate hikes. I believe this will lead to a rebound once winter passes, around April-June. (due to the war in Ukraine, sanctions and oil price caps, this winter is going to be rough around the world)

However, the amount of debit that people are holding is going to have a severe impact on the economy, which is why I think a 2024 crash is likely, or at least a significant recession. In 2020 alone, the global debt rose by 28% points.(https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/15/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion)

There is a lot more, but that is getting into more of the technicals and this is a very basic overview.

[kimik]

The market has gone through the phase we are seeing before. The 2021 spike may have been more like the 1993ish market top, but the run up, consolidation for a couple of years, then run up again pattern is a 5-7 year process. 

FWIW, right now I am setting all time GPA highs on eBay every couple of weeks on common slabbed SA and BA books (the latest one was my Avengers #88 CGC 9.6 that had no takers on the boards for much less  ). This is a good sign IMHO as when the run books creep up it sets the stage for the rest of the market to move upwards again. I expect 2023 to be a stabilizing year for keys as they hit the bottom of this plateau phase due to the likelihood of a recession, and then we should to start to see prices move forward again in 2024. 

That being said, there will be plenty of opportunities to find books in $1-$2 bins that can be flipped for more as there will still be new streaming/movie announcements.

[Cool Ghoul]

I use the $ I make on selling to buy, and I always buy and sell around the same time.  So market conditions offset each other.

I overpaid for WBN 32 and TOD 10 in 2021, but also got way more for my TMNT collection than I will ever get now.

I view it as funding my hobby in obtaining books I do want by selling those I'm ok to part with.

That said, I've been moving more modern books lately because I believe that with all the still-unsubmitted modern books in people's collections, there's a greater risk of market saturation in the future than there is with early Bronze, Silver and Golden Age books.

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Cool Ghoul
word correction

[fastballspecial]

On 12/13/2022 at 7:24 AM, Lothran said:

We'll see if this holds true, but I don't agree with the assessment.

A lot of people are speculating that the comic market has passed it's prime, but I believe it's just getting started and we are in a consolidation phase.

I think the market will rebound around Q2-Q3, but will crash again in 2024.

I've been doing this for about 30 years. I have seen up and downs in the market but nothing like that year my sales tripled in one year. There is no stimulus like that going to happen again. The market will absorb it this year and will be down then up slightly at tax season then down again rest of the year. Don't confuse sales and value. I am selling well right now but not at the value I was getting last year. I had to take a day off from work twice just to get caught up on shipping. Any long time sellers knows this. I had to start paying quarterly taxes because of it due to the large increase.

Edited December 15, 2022 by fastballspecial

[Lothran]

On 12/13/2022 at 6:27 PM, fastballspecial said:

I've been doing this for about 30 years...

...Any long time sellers known this.

No, no they don't. There is no such thing as 'knowing' what the market is going to do. Not to mention outside market factors that have a direct influence on the comic market.

You do you and keep selling.

I'll do me and keep buying.

Cheers

 

[fastballspecial]

On 12/14/2022 at 7:05 AM, Lothran said:

No, no they don't. There is no such thing as 'knowing' what the market is going to do. Not to mention outside market factors that have a direct influence on the comic market.

You do you and keep selling.

I'll do me and keep buying.

Cheers

 

Sure, keep taking what I said out of context.

A fool and his money are soon parted. 

 

[the blob]

On 12/13/2022 at 9:23 AM, Lothran said:

With the stagflation that is happening and the current energy market, the Fed is trying to balance their response with quantitative easing and interest rate hikes. I believe this will lead to a rebound once winter passes, around April-June. (due to the war in Ukraine, sanctions and oil price caps, this winter is going to be rough around the world)

However, the amount of debit that people are holding is going to have a severe impact on the economy, which is why I think a 2024 crash is likely, or at least a significant recession. In 2020 alone, the global debt rose by 28% points.(https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/15/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion)

There is a lot more, but that is getting into more of the technicals and this is a very basic overview.

shouldn't all that student loan forgiveness have been invested in comics?

 

[the blob]

On 12/13/2022 at 6:27 PM, fastballspecial said:

I've been doing this for about 30 years. I have seen up and downs in the market but nothing like that year my sales tripled in one year. There is no stimulus like that going to happen again. The market will absorb it this year and will be down then up slightly at tax season then down again rest of the year. Don't confuse sales and value. I am selling well right now but not at the value I was getting last year. I had to take a day off from work twice just to get caught up on shipping. Any long time sellers known this. I had to start paying quarterly taxes because of it due to the large increase.

covid 24 baby! maybe i stay home from work 3 years this time?

 

[the blob]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:37 PM, fastballspecial said:

All depends what you are buying at. The new tax rules will push out several online sellers. I can tell you now I have a waiting list for dealers at my local shows and I know why they are trying to avoid taxes which just screws up their sales, but they don't listen.  So while prices fall there will be less sellers to get the books from so it may all work out there. 

The last 1.5 years of sales are dead and gone. You will never see that again in your lifetime. As it crashes if it does just pick up the cheap stuff as it comes long. Nothing wrong with selling comics for $1 all day long. I know several sellers who have done that for years. 

 

Didn't that happen (a similar explosion in sales) a mere 30 years ago?

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by the blob

[Nick Furious]

On 12/13/2022 at 5:27 PM, fastballspecial said:

I've been doing this for about 30 years. I have seen up and downs in the market but nothing like that year my sales tripled in one year. There is no stimulus like that going to happen again. The market will absorb it this year and will be down then up slightly at tax season then down again rest of the year. Don't confuse sales and value. I am selling well right now but not at the value I was getting last year. I had to take a day off from work twice just to get caught up on shipping. Any long time sellers known this. I had to start paying quarterly taxes because of it due to the large increase.

You are correct, 2021 was an anomaly.  Anyone who doesn't believe this should maybe give an example of what they think an anomaly year would look like.  

[fastballspecial]

On 12/14/2022 at 7:59 PM, the blob said:

covid 24 baby! maybe i stay home from work 3 years this time?

 

Psst you gotta stay in Ebay's good graces too. 

[Lothran]

On 12/14/2022 at 9:08 PM, Nick Furious said:

You are correct, 2021 was an anomaly.  Anyone who doesn't believe this should maybe give an example of what they think an anomaly year would look like.  

I don't think anyone is arguing that it wasn't. However, I don't believe this is a one off event that "You will never see that again in your lifetime".

There are a number of different factors that lead me to believe this is part of the cycle and 2021 was breaking resistance.

The main factor that leads me to believe this will repeat is the market valuation with a CAGR of around 10%, based on 2012 to current valuations, which would put the US comic market at around $2,774,000,00-ish in 2024 from the current valuation of approximately, 2,286,000,000. (approximate as 2022 numbers have not been released yet) (Feel free to check the math and correct me if I made any miscalculations)

Now, that's just anticipated market growth without factoring in any outside factors, such as HBO developing a continuous DC Universe across it's movies/tv series/animated series, Disney or Sony developing their movies, games, series or any actions taken by the Fed to mitigate inflation and a recession, such as QE or rate hikes.

Obviously, this is pure speculation based on current numbers and it's impossible to predict an upturn or downturn, however this is a stronger case for repeat cycles than a one off spike with no data other than "muh 30 years". (comic market is wildly different than 30, 20 or even 10 years ago... 2012 market valuation was 805,000,000)

 

So, I'll do me and base my investing on the data I believe is pertinent and others can do themselves and base their strategies on past experiences.