The January 2023 HA auction starting to load up 2 2

[delekkerste]

On 1/11/2023 at 1:21 AM, tth2 said:

In summary, OA is immune to crashes.

Well, it certainly seems to be immune from your attempts to shoeshine boy reverse jinx it into crashing.  

[Rick2you2]

On 1/11/2023 at 6:48 AM, delekkerste said:

Well, it certainly seems to be immune from your attempts to shoeshine boy reverse jinx it into crashing.  

“shoeshine boy”? The only slang usage I know doesn’t seem to have much application.

 I would, however, generally agree with what you wrote. Would you have any idea how the OA market changes compared to the fine art market, as compared to collectibles? I would love to know if OA is getting it’s due through parallel rises and falls to fine art.

[Bronty]

Its a saying about the clueless playing the market...   so I think he just called Tim clueless 

[gumbydarnit]

I like the never-ending conflict between the sky is falling and the skys the limit camps.

One day we'll finally find out who's ultimately right... let's just hope we're still alive to do something about it ; )

Edited January 11, 2023 by gumbydarnit

[vodou]

On 1/11/2023 at 9:57 AM, gumbydarnit said:

One day we'll finally find out who's ultimately right... let's just hope we're still alive to do something about it ; )

Anybody alive in 10 years will see that both extremes will have been right; hope the deep longs sell at/near the peak 🥳

[gumbydarnit]

On 1/11/2023 at 9:39 AM, vodou said:

Anybody alive in 10 years will see that both extremes will have been right; hope the deep longs sell at/near the peak 🥳

… and the shorts buy at the absolute bottom - $50 Kirby FF for everyone! 

[vodou]

On 1/11/2023 at 1:58 PM, gumbydarnit said:

… and the shorts buy at the absolute bottom - $50 Kirby FF for everyone! 

Except the “new” $50 will also buy an entire apt building…in Manhattan. And you’ll only have 1/100,000th of a cent anyway 😉

[alexgross.com]

about how much are them two awesome kirby/stone thor pages going to end at? specifically talking about the avengers 6 page and the JIM110 page. some great images of the god of thunder in both of them. 

i doubt i'll be playing, but i'd love to know the neighborhood that i would need to be in if i did choose to play. gracias for any guidance. 

[KirbyCollector]

Congrats to whoever won the Forever People 1/2 splash just now... loved that 2nd panel, very Silver Surfer-y... 5K just a little higher than what I budgeted

Edited January 12, 2023 by KirbyCollector

[Fischb1]

The way I see it:

If the oa market softens a bit, who cares. Any of us can lose 10% of the value of our collections and not mind too much, especially after things have appreciated so much the last few years.

If the oa market comes crashing down, that probably means a major recession and the stock market is crashing down too. In that case, I lose nothing by having this money tied up in oa instead of crashing stocks. 

The only alternative would be to put the money into cash (but inflation?), or some recession-resistant commodity (gold?), but even if I didn't collect oa, I probably wouldn't be buying gold and grain.

So, sure, spend responsibly. Only buy what you can afford. Be prepared for a possible 10% to 30% setback this next year. If things go down, as the economy recovers and stocks recover, so will oa. It's still one of a kind and people like us will still have the strong urge to buy it. 

The real test for oa isn't this coming year, it will be in 20 years when many of the collectors in their 40s age out. But that's still a 20 year party and I'm here for it!

[Rick2you2]

On 1/12/2023 at 1:39 AM, Fischb1 said:

The way I see it:

If the oa market softens a bit, who cares. Any of us can lose 10% of the value of our collections and not mind too much, especially after things have appreciated so much the last few years.

If the oa market comes crashing down, that probably means a major recession and the stock market is crashing down too. In that case, I lose nothing by having this money tied up in oa instead of crashing stocks. 

The only alternative would be to put the money into cash (but inflation?), or some recession-resistant commodity (gold?), but even if I didn't collect oa, I probably wouldn't be buying gold and grain.

So, sure, spend responsibly. Only buy what you can afford. Be prepared for a possible 10% to 30% setback this next year. If things go down, as the economy recovers and stocks recover, so will oa. It's still one of a kind and people like us will still have the strong urge to buy it. 

The real test for oa isn't this coming year, it will be in 20 years when many of the collectors in their 40s age out. But that's still a 20 year party and I'm here for it!

A third scenario is a slow, initially invisible decline, first in certain limited areas, then more broadly. More reminiscent of a dying hobby or market than a collapse. Various pieces/artists/subjects hit a price point and stop moving. Good pieces don’t attract buyers, and sellers, who got used to prices rising, sit on them. Potential buyers move onto other things, leaving the “market price” stuck. Slowly, the backlog breaks, and some pieces are sold at a lower rate while others sit majestically high, like waiting for Godot’s return, frozen in amber. You can find that sort of curve in the Persian rug market. Prices shot up when the Shah was kicked out and an embargo resulted in sellers telling potential buyers, no more are coming in.  Modern weavers in other countries then started producing rugs in those Persian patterns, softening demand (even though the real Persian rugs were qualitatively different). Then tastes changed, and many old collectible rugs dropped, too. At least as of a few years ago, you could find some dealers holding onto their precious half million dollar rugs for decades, since no one would pay those prices anymore. Supposedly, some specimen rugs retained their value, but the bulk of them have not.

[batman_fan]

My canary will be the Peanuts artwork.  I have one data point suggesting a softening in prices so this auction will be a second data point.  Will prices continue to soften?  Should be interesting to watch.  I think Peanuts artwork is a decent gauge because it seems pieces are offered in almost every auction and there is a pricing hierarchy based on age and content.

Edited January 12, 2023 by batman_fan

[gumbydarnit]

Best of luck to you all on the auction!

May the sellers set record prices and may each buyer find the steal of the auction : )

GO GET EM!

Edited January 12, 2023 by gumbydarnit

[Aahz]

It's funny, I don't worry about my art gaining in value as not overpaying in a case of FOMO.  To paraphrase a comment above, you'll probably get more joy out of the art than you will out of buying a stock, commodity, or gold.

In terms of the long term viability of the market, I was looking at fine art at an auction the other day and marveled again at how many apples, trees, and ships have been painted over the years.  All beautiful to look at and well executed.  However, to a large part these do not have an impact on the day to day consciousness of the average person.  I would hazard that chances are that if you took a random person from anywhere in the world and showed them a Picasso or a drawing of Spiderman, they would be more likely to identify the Spiderman.  As long as these characters (in Spandex or otherwise)  have an impact in the collective social consciousness, the market will be viable. (IMO).

[Phill the Governor]

On 1/12/2023 at 1:39 AM, Fischb1 said:

The real test for oa isn't this coming year, it will be in 20 years when many of the collectors in their 40s age out. But that's still a 20 year party and I'm here for it!

Wouldn't the collectors of 20 years ago have said the same? Historically speaking the only real question decade after decade is what art will become astronomical in 20 years vs other content that has lagged behind, because that seems to be a guarantee..

 

On 1/12/2023 at 6:53 AM, Rick2you2 said:

You can find that sort of curve in the Persian rug market.

Great example, and I think there's a huge reflection of this in the antique furniture market in general. But thankfully rugs and art couldn't be further apart.

 

The closest thing to comic book art that can be looked at, historically, is fine art. Much fine art over the centuries was commissioned buy a variety of people, but ultimately the relationship to commercial art and fine art, too, is often overlooked. Our comic book art was work for hire. The fine art world is also comprised by a (almost universal) 1:1 ratio of unique pieces. 

That said, 100 years from now if we're still here there is a 100% guarantee that there will be collections that were donated to museums, institutions, etc and this stuff will be, at the very least, way closer to fine art prices not the other way around. Heck, 20 years from now Spider-Man, Batman, Superman, even The Walking Dead and Star Trek are going NOWHERE. 40 years from now will there be new heroes or properties that have taken over popularity, or ones that currently exist that have been rehashed by new creative teams? Which heroes or properties (like Buck Rogers and Tarzan) will slink closer to obscurity? The cultural limelight will be taken up by others and we have 100 years of content to pull from and rehash and redraw and tell more stories of.

Superhero's and comic book characters have in some regard superseded themselves to the forefront of culture and are "worshiped" in the same way that religious icons were in past days. Look at how much some of those religious paintings and commercial pieces from centuries are still appreciated. Past culture was heavily influenced by religion (heck it still is!) but there is an undeniable element of culture that comic books and superheros have effected that is lasting- at the very least for the next hundred years.

As someone that's 32, my only worry for collecting through the rest of my life is what pieces are available within my budget now that won't be in due time - and exactly how much time is that? Looking at the historical record and gauging the effect this stuff has on culture I would feel foolish to think otherwise.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Phill the Governor

[Fischb1]

On 1/12/2023 at 11:14 AM, Phill the Governor said:

Wouldn't the collectors of 20 years ago have said the same? Historically speaking the only real question decade after decade is what art will become astronomical in 20 years vs other content that has lagged behind, because that seems to be a guarantee..

Yes...and it's come true. There is plenty of oa that was hot 20 years ago that only guys like Michael Finn collects now. As each generation ages out, there are some strips or artists that become obsolete. I believe Peanuts will go that same route. As will Prince Valiant. Etc. But Spiderman and Batman still have legs for a while to come. 

[g-man]

$432K for the XMEN 98 cover w the juice 

[batman_fan]

The Frazzeta painting at $660k 

[Rick2you2]

On 1/12/2023 at 11:14 AM, Phill the Governor said:

Wouldn't the collectors of 20 years ago have said the same? Historically speaking the only real question decade after decade is what art will become astronomical in 20 years vs other content that has lagged behind, because that seems to be a guarantee..

 

Great example, and I think there's a huge reflection of this in the antique furniture market in general. But thankfully rugs and art couldn't be further apart.

 

***

As someone that's 32, my only worry for collecting through the rest of my life is what pieces are available within my budget now that won't be in due time - and exactly how much time is that? Looking at the historical record and gauging the effect this stuff has on culture I would feel foolish to think otherwise.

Actually, rugs and art, as well as furniture all do share something in common: what did people grow up with and want? The biggest bright spot for furniture collectors is now “mid-century modern”, including 1970’s furniture, with 1950’s and 1960’s stuff peaking. Twenty years ago, it was Art Deco from the mid-1920’s to mid-1940’s. But as you know, old brown furniture is dead. I’m only a casual observer, but in art, things like old portraiture is pretty dead, as is realistic art in general. Our grandparents would likely have loved the stuff. Which pretty much confirms what you are saying, although with Peanuts in reprints, it will have legs. Buy what’s popular when you are young, and with the possible exception of “classics”, the future isn’t bright for what the old timers love. I think I’ll go “gum” on some food.

[vodou]

On 1/12/2023 at 1:30 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I think I’ll go “gum” on some food.

What Would Jesse Marsh Do?