How overstated is the CGC Census? 1 1

[DC#]

Given the amount of crack, clean, press, and resubmit that goes on - and the fact that some portion of those resubmissions do not send back the old labels or otherwise note the prior CGC number when submitting (people worried it will influence the new grade) - anyone got a guess as to how overstated the CGC census might be?    Probably an unknowable fact and probably varies by book - but curious if anyone had a gut feel.      

As an example, there are 13k Universal Hulk 181s on the census.      Would you think that 1-2% of those are resubmits without acknowledgment of prior grade?  

[lizards2]

I know I've sent about 400 plus outer/inner wells to their graves WITHOUT reporting any of the deaths to CGC. 

No Hulk 181s though.

[DougC]

I would blanket say at least 5% of the entire census is invalid; CGC themselves also are poor stewards of removing labels. Back when I did a lot of signature submissions I would send batches of blue labels in twice a year that show up as part of the census to this day. A more recent example the Jim Shooter signed from last year, the books I sent in under my account were removed from the census, but all four of the books I sent in under another account (after being pressed) are still in the census (the labels were included with the paperwork.

PSA has this same problem and is the result largely out of their control; overall the census is a gimmick to show off and should be treated as such.

[lizards2]

I actually don't know what the census is generally used for by others.

I use it to help with general scarcity-in-grade determinations when I bid on or buy stuff.

I say general, because you never know what the actual grade a book is until you crack it out. There is a 30% over/under, in my estimation.

All the books I've cracked out still exist, except for all those that I have sold - I assume they still exist though, and the labels went with them. 

Additionally, I've probably bought at least 50-100 cracked out books that had their labels included.  

[whomerjay]

For most books, not really concerned how overstated the census is; who cares if 5% or even 20% of the 9.8 IH 181's are resubs whose labels were never returned.  The census numbers suggesting there are sightly more slabs than reality doesn't affect the market for this book.  For GA books with low census #s, I am a bit concerned that a resubbed book is still on the census in its old grade. If I'm looking at a book that is 3rd in census and it is actually 2nd, I'm probably undervaluing the book. Also I'd really like to know if a HG GA CGC book has been cracked and pressed; I'd rather have the unpressed, lower grade version.  Some sleuths on here have done a good job of detecting CPR books known only by comparing images from sales. Still, that info is hard to mine.

Even more curious to me is how understated the census is. Old timers here often talk about all the great raw books still out there. I guess the Church Action 1 and other unsubmitted Church books are good examples. Good chance I've acquired some great top-of-census GA books with <10 copies overall in census, assuming a degree of rarity, when in truth there may be 3-4 (or more) better raw copies out there sitting in collections.