Reynold Jay's Market Report

[comicinvestor-migration]

From one of the biggest CGC sellers to you:

 

Over 10,000 CGC auctions at eBay last month. The result has been quite chaotic as the average is around 7,000. There were too many sellers for a stable market to be maintained. Hopefully, poor sales for the sellers will help to reduce activity and the market will stabilize a bit. Consider that the output for CGC is around 4,000 comics a month which means that re-circulated comics are the biggest part of the over supplied market.

 

Now these are some very interesting numbers and suggest (at least to me) that many CGC investors are getting a tad ansy and are liquidating parts of their stash. This 6K old stock vs. 4K new subs ratio is quite amazing, and far above what other CGC months have held. I also believe that this is the first month that sold/held CGC books have outdistanced the number of new CGC books.

 

If this continues and the CGC specs continue to dump books, then hold onto your socks boyz, cuz it'll be one wild elevator ride down.

 

P.S. I think the numbers this month are even worse than RJ attests to, since there have been an absolute ton of "CGC Lots" (consisting of 10-100 CGC books per auction) listed of late and adding those into the 10K auctions would bring the actual "CGC Book Total" astronomically higher.

[NativeNewYorker]

For every transaction, there is a buyer and a seller. The supply of books offered for sale is greater due to the higher # of slabbed books available. The increase in supply is matched by an increase in buyers. Price equilibrium is reached when supply equals demand. The greater # of transactions is simply an increase in liquidity. Isn't that what CGC was designed to facilitate?

 

Ted

[comicinvestor-migration]

What are you talking about? If "The increase in supply is matched by an increase in buyers" is economic theory, then I recommend a refresher course.

 

Check out the "completed with no bids" auctions, ended-early auctions and "reserve not met" auctions and you'll see a ever-growing percentage of CGC auctions end without a completed transaction.

 

If that's increased liquidity, then I want no part of it.

[Guest]

Check out the "completed with no bids" auctions, ended-early auctions and "reserve not met" auctions and you'll see a ever-growing percentage of CGC auctions end without a completed transaction.

 

Out of curiosity how many of the above auctions, relisted, are part of that 10k total? I agree with the general sentiment expressed here, but quoting these numbers seems like statistics for statistics sake since there's no way he could know the true total of individual CGC books offered on ebay or the true number of CGC books returned to submitters during the month in question.

[comicinvestor-migration]

I think Jay has the contacts to get a bare estimate on the number of CGC books processed during a given time-period, and I also think that any relists would easily be eclipsed by the growing number of "CGC Lot Listings", like that maroon selling off a stack of CGC garbage "cuz my wife told me to".

[NativeNewYorker]

I do not need a refresher in economics. Pricing is a variable that fluctuates with changes in supply and demand. If supply and demand do not meet at a particular price, there is no equilibrium. There are millions of people who would sell their Worldcom stock at $100 a share, but no demand for it at that price. You can equate all those ended auctions without a winning bidder to the people who have their $100 sell limit orders in on Worldcom.

 

Ted

[comicinvestor-migration]

My only point is that it's virtually impossible to apply basic economic principles to comic book selling on EBay, unless everyone is forced to start their bid at a penny, with no reserve and the sellers are unable to end auctions whenever they see fit.

 

Until then, sellers continue to create an artificial economy of unmet reserves, seller ended auctions, and ludicrous starting bids. That's more like a "luxury retail store" scenario of set prices, rather than a true market built on supply and demand.

 

It's actually quite similar to the $100 Woldco buy orders that may still be floating around the trading engine. Just keep them active and hope a sucker bites.

[Kevin Boyd]

My only point is that it's virtually impossible to apply basic economic principles to comic book selling on EBay, unless everyone is forced to start their bid at a penny, with no reserve and the sellers are unable to end auctions whenever they see fit.

 

Until then, sellers continue to create an artificial economy of unmet reserves, seller ended auctions, and ludicrous starting bids. That's more like a "luxury retail store" scenario of set prices, rather than a true market built on supply and demand.

 

Exactly, I think what we are seeing is the comic shop mentality transferred to a different selling forum. In the shop, the owner will grade the book, price it, and put it on their wall. There it will stay until someone decides (either in the store or at a convention) that they want the book and then they will either pay the asking price or haggle slightly.

 

What we have on e-bay is the same mentality applied to auctions. Essentially - this is what the dealer wants for the book - this is the price (either using a reserve or by starting with a high minimum). If the buyer is interested they bid, if not the item doesn't sell and it can be relisted or filed away for the future.

 

As a seller, I don't have to let the book go for less than what I want to sell it for. If someone wants to contact me afterwards and haggle on the price, I'm always willing to discuss it or forward the offer on to whoever I'm selling the book for.

 

Sure, it costs me money to list and relist. But that's essentially rent for putting my book up on display - just as if I had a shop or a booth at a convention.

 

Obviously there are some items I am willing to let go at whatever the bidder feels like paying for it. But as a seller, unless that reserve is met, or that minimum price in a no-reserve auction is met, I don't have to sell it. Just like that book that is hanging on the wall in your local comics shop.

 

I am not obliged to sell it to you because you feel that it should be going for less than what I am asking for it and that seems to be a mentality expressed by many posters here - i.e. they should be able to buy whatever they want as cheaply as possible, and that e-bay should be a true open market - i.e. start the bidding at a penny and let the market decide the price. Sorry if that was the case I know that I would not use e-bay and I would either find an auction site that did allow me to set my minimum price or I would just sell at conventions.

 

Don't get me wrong, some dealers don't care and will eat their losses and start the bidding low just to get rid of items - the "fire sales" that your buddy de-lekker (sorry I forget how to spell your name ) seems to be predicting everyone will be doing in a year or so. Part of me thinks that his constant harping on the commodities market approach is meant to panic sellers into dumping their product so that it can be picked up cheaper and scaring potential bidders from making bids on the books they want - because of course, everything will be cheaper in a year! It's a self-fulfilling prophecy if people buy into it.

 

Fact of the matter is, if I've got a book, and you want it... this is my price. You don't want to pay that price then fine, I don't mind not selling it until I do get that price. That might be never, but I still don't have to sell it. You can quote from Revelation, bring up the sinking of the Titanic, mention the stock market crash of 1929, Enron, World War 2, the Black Plague, whatever... that still won't make me drop my price if I don't want to.

 

You might be able to get it cheaper somewhere else. Great, more power to you, but E-bay is a giant flea market NOT a true virtual commodities market - it is a collection of thousands of virtual dealer booths where sellers get to advertise their wares without having to open a retail outlet.

 

Kev

 

 

[comicinvestor-migration]

What we have on e-bay is the same mentality applied to auctions. Essentially - this is what the dealer wants for the book - this is the price (either using a reserve or by starting with a high minimum). If the buyer is interested they bid, if not the item doesn't sell and it can be relisted or filed away for the future.

 

Hey, I never said there is anything wrong with this, but I do have a problem with saps relisting a book for months, finally getting a sucker to bite, and then proudly state that the big-dollar prices are back to stay.

 

"Party, party party, I sold a Thor NM 9.4 for $50 more than market rates, and it only took me 4 months to do it!"

 

Sooner or later, everything will sell, and if you want to run "comic store" listings on EBay, then fine. Just keep in mind that these sales have absolutely nothing to do with true market prices or constantly fluctuating supply/demand.

[Kevin Boyd]

Just keep in mind that these sales have absolutely nothing to do with true market prices or constantly fluctuating supply/demand.

 

Why not?

 

I agree that it may be stupid to continually relist. I usually apply the rule that if it doesn't go after the 1st relist I will wait a few months before trying again (and reconsider the price at that point).

 

But when dealers run market reports in the front of the Overstreet or in the CBM or CBG they are quoting ACTUAL sales. There is no discussion of how long they had the book and how the price achieved differed from the asking price. And those actual sales are used by Overstreet to determine whether or not a change is required to the price in the next guide.

 

And very few of those dealers actually indicate where these sales were made (e-bay, private, walk-in, convention, mail-order, etc.).

 

Kev

[aardvark88]

Overstreet retailers' sales realized data may even be 1/2 cash, 1/2 trade or all trade for all we know.

[Guest]

The 10000 auctions/mo is accurate - at 3200 or so at any given time, adjusted for an average auction period of 7 days, you get 10-12K, even with relists.

 

Many of these are fringe auctions and dealer mistakes, though. Spectacular Spidey 1 CGC 9.0, anybody? I'm not seeing a drastic increase in nice key books.

 

I wonder if RJ factored in 5 relists of Captain Canuck 1 10.0, with a $5000 opening bid?