The phenomenon of "Seller's Remorse" re: SA Marvels

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Working in Florida real estate, I've encountered the phenomenon of Seller's Remorse a lot the past few months. In many instances, it takes root in long time homeowner's who feel they might have "missed the boat" by not selling during last year's market peak, and often keep reducing their homes to bargain prices (compared to the market) just so they don't "lose anymore" of that ethereal paper equity they thought they had.

 

I guess its the same thing when you hold on to a stock for too long, refusing to sell at a hefty profit near the peak, and selling out of a sense of regret when it falls further from its highs.

 

How does any of this apply to comics, you ask...?

 

Lately, as I've been dipping my toes back into the back issue market, I've been noticing a continuation of a trend; prices on Silver Age Marvels keep trending down on eBay, and have been now for the better part of a whole year. More and more of the same type of material keeps being offered on ebay, and prices keep hitting new lows, or in some cases, are falling back to price levels of a few years ago. To exascerbate the problem of abundant supply, I've noticed a number of "long time collectors" selling off their books, perhaps because they realize the downward trend and are selling now out of a sense of the aforementioned 'seller's remorse'.

 

Now, some will argue that ebay is not the best gauge of the market. Personally, I couldn't disagree more. While some of the best material is indeed transacted privately and on sites like Pedigree and Heritage, ebay fills an important role in keeping the 2.0-9.0 grade ranges liquid and moving. An abundant supply of comparable material means buyers can be more discreet with their dollars. When listed without a reserve and are certified with good quality scans, comic sales on ebay are very representative of current market sentiment, IMHO. As for matters of seasonality, when the SA market was supa-hot a few years ago, it was setting records 365 days a year, so relying on "the summer slump" to explain waning comic prices is a bit simplistic.

 

So, are you seeing what I'm seeing, and where do you think it will all end up? Are we in the midst of a long term move away from SA Marvels and into other genres/ages or is the market as a whole experiencing a slowdown? If you take issue with my observations, please feel free to offer a counterpoint.

[Silver Surfer]

I think the market has shown incredible strength this year especially considering the volume and selection of high grade stuff from all genres that have hit the market in the past 6 months. I seem to recall a fellow board member/dealer here felt that 2006 was going to be a banner year and the general reaction was to those sentiments were negative. I have to admit that even I was a bit skeptical but I don't see too much softening yet on high grade books. I think GA has experienced a bit of a revial but I'm strating to notice more and more high grade 9.8 BA books strating to flood the market so if there is going to be a softening I suspect it will be in that era.

 

Not sure what books or grade range that you see SA books falling in price but I still think that the high grade stuff is still selling at a strong clip, there is just way more of it on the market than I have seen in the previous 3 years. EBay can be spotty so it is hard to use it as a market guage when books are listed during a holiday weekend or just before or after a big Heritage auction, etc.

[drbanner]

As long as you feel you sold your investment at the top of the market, you should be fine!

 

On the other hand, I doubt "long time collectors" would have seller's remorse. If the peak prices of last year (or whenever) didn't motivate them to sell then, why would they care if prices were lower today? Your question seems more to do with investors remorse (not selling at the top), and if lower/stagnant prices cause them to leave the hobby, the better off the hobby will be. It's not really a hobby for them anyway, is it?

 

To me, sellers remorse occurs when you sell something you wish you would have kept...like your childhood comic book collection. I had seller's remorse when I sold my DC 100 Pager #4 but fortunately I was able to re-purchase it. Funny thing is, now the buyer-turned-seller wants it back from and has offered "significantly more" than he sold it back to me for in the first (second?) place!

[blazingbob]

I have no "sellers" remorse in selling my collection and buying my home.

 

From a dealers standpoint sales are steady. Just like pre-CGC days, if it was a good book then, it's a good book now. If you were honest with yourself and knew the books were common you had to expect that some of the "lofty" prices were unsustainable.

[topofthetotem]

let prices fall The world around me means nothing, as long as I can buy what I feel like buying.

Who cares what the profit minded people in this "hobby" do

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Not sure what books or grade range that you see SA books falling in price but I still think that the high grade stuff is still selling at a strong clip, there is just way more of it on the market than I have seen in the previous 3 years.

 

My comment was across the board for grades and books. Mid-grades especially are taking a hit, even on pretty big semi-key type books. High grades tend to do well and will continue to do so, though a recent purchase of mine off of ebay did set the 4-year GPA low for a particular SA Marvel in CGC 9.4.

 

I've just noticed a number of "runs" of nice SA Marvel books (mostly mid-grade, some high) available on ebay, and the prices they are fetching are hardly inspiring.

 

Bob's right, I'm sure sales are steady and the world goes on. Many books are indeed fetching solid prices, and perhaps the "rising tide that raises all ships" phenomenon of both CGC and the SA Marvel explosion of 2003-2004 is just taking a natural ebb downward on the most available/common of books (mid graders, warehouse books, etc).

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

On the other hand, I doubt "long time collectors" would have seller's remorse. If the peak prices of last year (or whenever) didn't motivate them to sell then, why would they care if prices were lower today? Your question seems more to do with investors remorse (not selling at the top), and if lower/stagnant prices cause them to leave the hobby, the better off the hobby will be.

 

I'm sure most folks who bought books 10-20 years ago, and still stand to make a tidy profit when they sell, would opt to sell "at the peak" if they were able to determine when that was, whether they be pure collectors, investors, or some hybrid of the two. I think the number of "pure collectors" who never gave a damn about Overstreet YoY price increases because their books would stay in their collections until they day they kicked is pretty low. Most people I know care about the value of their books, whether their price thresholds be $100, $1000, $10,000 or whatever. The Overstreet Guide itself has for years has been pushing the investment potential of comics, so its easy to see understand why most collectors remain in tune with what goes on in the marketplace.

[joe_collector]

I think the number of "pure collectors" who never gave a damn about Overstreet YoY price increases because their books would stay in their collections until they day they kicked is pretty low.

 

On here, yes, and I'm probably the only one.

 

Out in the real world, there are quite a few, who have been happily accumulating books for decades with no real thought to investment or value.

[blazingbob]

What exactly is "selling at a peak"? Only hindsight can determine that I or anybody else for that matter sold at a peak. When I sold my FF run there was virtually no competition or deep supply of that title on the market. My run generated lots of interest and lots of "buzz". I basically paved the way on some issues and "reinforced" that it was possible to sell a book for a certain price. That's how peaks are started and eventually topple over. When nobody steps up and pays that price or "no buzz" is generated. I had the customers, sold the books, bought my house and watched as the books were resold, went into collections and even bought some back and sold them again.

 

This market is always about "buzz" and "Did you see what so and so bought". What "buzz" does ebay generate except "Did you see the new listing?", yawn.

 

Everybody makes fun of the guy selling those 5 beer distributor boxes but boy what a "buzz" he created. Did he get "top dollar"? I would say he did.

 

Our hobby is sadly about "What's new" or the next "Virgin Collection". If a book sits on a dealers site for a few months there must be something wrong with it. Maybe it's just me but this hobby is a lot about society in general, instant gratification, instant returns.

[joe_collector]

What exactly is "selling at a peak"?

 

Not selling in a valley?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

What exactly is "selling at a peak"? Only hindsight can determine that I or anybody else for that matter sold at a peak.

 

Yes, that's true to a degree. But there are people out there who probably contemplated selling when prices were peaking, and held out for what they thought would be greater profits only to see the market come back down and the opportunity to cash out at a maximum diminish.

 

Personally, I think there is a way to determine a peak beforehand. When the prices get absolutely nutty, not supported by standard fundamentals, and reaching a level of exponential growth that is unsustainable into the future, I'd say you're peak has been reached, or getting pretty darn close. Being off by 5-10% isn't

an issue, I'm not talking about calling the absolute market tops or bottoms, but simply being intuned to changing market sentiment.

 

It works in housing. It works in comics. It works in stocks. The timetable for all three is vastly different (for stocks, a peak can last for literally a second, in a home market, the peak can be a season or even a year long), but the same basics apply.

 

 

[skybolt]

I think the number of "pure collectors" who never gave a damn about Overstreet YoY price increases because their books would stay in their collections until they day they kicked is pretty low.

 

On here, yes, and I'm probably the only one.

 

Out in the real world, there are quite a few, who have been happily accumulating books for decades with no real thought to investment or value.

 

Joe, can you please elaborate on what your definition of investor vs. pure collector is? For instance, if I purchase a Batman book for $5K today, and resell it for the same value 5 years later, what does that make me? It seems that what you're implying is that all purchases should be made up of disposable income, and whether you spend $10K or $2 on a book, you shouldn't expect any return if you think of yourself as a pure collector.

 

When I graduated from college, I spent about $500 a year on modern books. A few years ago I decided to take the much more fun back-issue route instead, and put a lot of money into GA and SA books, while expecting a reasonable return 10 years down the line. Even if I lose about $10K (from a roughly $100K total) when reselling my books 10 years from now, I would've still only spent about $1K a year on a hobby I love. Plus, in the meantime, I would've owned some great issues like ASM #1, X-Men #1, etc. vs. the modern drek that I grew tired of. I think that most collectors on these boards are like myself.

[nik]

I dont see how you can compare the 2. One is part of an everyday need in life, the other is a hobby. True collectors will never really suffer remorse, because their collection is a passion/hobby of theirs. Whether they make 2k or 1k on the same book is irrelevant to them because bottom line is they will make a profit one way or another. The only ones that truly have remorse are the flippers in our hobby.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Our hobby is sadly about "What's new" or the next "Virgin Collection". If a book sits on a dealers site for a few months there must be something wrong with it. Maybe it's just me but this hobby is a lot about society in general, instant gratification, instant returns.

 

I'm going to agree with Bob here, and add in my own perspective: I think the downside of the introduction of CGC and the sheer availability of information from a wide array of sources (ebay database searches, GPAnalysis, the Heritage archives) is the commoditization of comics in the past 5-6 years.

 

I can remember when my buying habits in the early and mid 90s were based off of the Guide almost entirely. Often times I bought a high grade book from a trusted dealer through the mail at a set multiple that I was happy with (say 1.25) and didn't even think about the money I spent...I was just happy to have the book. In most cases, since collectors from opposite coasts and different time zones interacted maybe once a year at major shows like San Diego, the chances were good you weren't going to know about a "comparable sale" to the book you just bought. Prices moved in years and inches, not days and miles.

 

Buying today has become a different scenario entirely. What's the GPA average? (wouldn't want to overpay), when was the last sale, how many exist in this condition? (check the CGC census), is it on the resub list (check the known resub list), can I get it cheaper via ebay? (check ebay), is it really the stated condition? (call CGC for grades and notes since the seller won't accept a return on graded books), was it a Ewert or Heritage Special (check the archives).....

 

The amount of due diligence required nowadays is an ordeal in time management itself....

 

..ah...the simpler days....

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I dont see how you can compare the 2. One is part of an everyday need in life, the other is a hobby.

 

A home can be the centerpiece of your family's existence and a place full of warm memories.

 

A comic collection can be the pride and joy of your collecting pursuits and a thing that gives its owner much personal enjoyment.

 

Those are all intangibles which can't easily be measured by dollars.

 

However, in the end, comics and housing are both assets with market value. What they are worth to you can be vastly different then what they are worth to someone else. And when it comes time to sell, when you have chosen the financial gain over the emotional one of continued ownership, you must accept the reality of the Market.

 

In that respect, they are both one and the same.

[mjacobs8]

Thanks for a great topic! JTMF your comment on the "due digilence required" is spot on for me . Since getting back into collecting this year after a 20+ year hiatus the amount of research involved has sometimes been paralizing. Sure, if I like the book I buy the book but on the bigger ticket buys one would be a fool not to research it first" pure " collectors included.

[Silver]

Not a SA Marvel collector, but I will put in my 2 cents worth anyways. My collection is not an investment (although my family thinks it's worth a "fortune"). I collect mostly SA/Bronze DC Superman titles. Some of that material (mid-upper grades) has a FIERCE small following of fans as we know that some of that material is very rare in decent grades.

 

So basically I collect cause I love these books. Yes the stories can be stupid, as many of you that look at Lois Lane and Jimmy Olsen cover from the 60's can attest to, but I love em, and I read all of them, and I have this "completist" mentality towards them.

 

So with that in mind, what they are worth is what they are worth. If they were worthless I would still hunt them down, buy them, read em, mylar em, etc. The more valuable they are, they tougher it is to complete my runs, but it just adds to the challenge.

 

I personally don't think good, scarce, high grade comics are going down in price. I think low grade abundant comics continue to fall lower as high grade desirable material continues to push higher. It's the way things have been for a long time, and I haven't noticed that change much.

 

Just another *opinion*

[uclapeterg]

The only ones that truly have remorse are the flippers in our hobby.

 

I agree.

[drbanner]

In that respect, they are both one and the same.

My home and my comic book collection are one and the same, merely assets with market value and an "end game" of financial profit? It's quite apparent that to you, they are, but I don't believe that applies to the majority of home-owners, or comic book collectors.

 

Let me ask you this - were you more excited about purchasing that restored FF 1 because your "tastes have gradually migrated towards great looking books at bargain prices...For the money, I wouldn't find anything that looks this nice anytime soon", or because you felt that you could turn around and flip it for a profit - "Sharp mid-grade FF # 1 for sale"?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

In that respect, they are both one and the same.

My home and my comic book collection are one and the same, merely assets with market value and an "end game" of financial profit? It's quite apparent that to you, they are, but I don't believe that applies to the majority of home-owners, or comic book collectors.

 

Let me ask you this - were you more excited about purchasing that restored FF 1 because your "tastes have gradually migrated towards great looking books at bargain prices...For the money, I wouldn't find anything that looks this nice anytime soon", or because you felt that you could turn around and flip it for a profit - "Sharp mid-grade FF # 1 for sale"?

 

Because I only need so many mid-grade copies at one time Banner.

 

I bought two restored copies in a week (which means I now have three), & decided to sell off one.

 

Along with the one unrestored mid-grade copy I've kept (I've sold several off last year), that makes for three that I'll keep if I sell the one you highlighted.

 

I love them, but they are a commodity that are subject to my whims. Was I excited to find a nice restored copy for a good price? Sure. But books come and go.

 

I have about 20 books in my collection that I can't see myself parting with, because they are legitimately scarce and I doubt I can ever replace.

 

Mid grade copies of FF # 1 don't qualify for that honor.