The phenomenon of "Seller's Remorse" re: SA Marvels

[tth2]

What exactly is "selling at a peak"? Only hindsight can determine that I or anybody else for that matter sold at a peak.

 

Yes, that's true to a degree. But there are people out there who probably contemplated selling when prices were peaking, and held out for what they thought would be greater profits only to see the market come back down and the opportunity to cash out at a maximum diminish.

Yes, but for every one of those people, there is also someone who thought about selling and held out for greater profits, and in fact the market continued to go up and the person was happy they decided to hold on. If we were having this conversation in 2003, lots of people would be saying this happened to them in 2001 and 2002. As Bob says, your point only resonates now because of hindsight.

 

Bottom line: market timing in comics, as in almost every other type of investment, is difficult to impossible.

[joe_collector]

But if someone sold their books in 2001, do you assume they just put peanut butter on the bills and ate them?

 

You have to assume the seller invested the money properly, or used it to buy another asset like a house, so any "future comic sale" comparisons would need to compete against the 2006 valuation of those investments/assets as well.

 

It's not just an insipid "He sold the book for $50K in 2001, but now it's worth $65K, he lost out big-time!" idea, as that $50K in proceeds has had 5 years to work, and may well have gained more than the $15K in that time.

 

But of course, you knew that.

[tth2]

You have to assume the seller invested the money properly, or used it to buy another asset like a house, so any "future comic sale" comparisons would need to compete against the 2006 valuation of those investments/assets as well.

Who knows? Maybe the seller took the money and blew it on a trip to Vegas, or bought a new car, which depreciated the moment it left the lot. Or a bad investment. Maybe the guy put it into a nice "safe" investment in 2001 like GM or Ford.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Well at least you are giving some qualifiers here. Now look at my qualifiers and tell me again where the across the board price drops are, like you claim in your original statement.

 

You mean this:

 

pre '66 Marvels in 8.0+ are selling at or above GPA average, depending on page quality and how nice the book looks for its grade.

 

Hmmm...nice try, as I don't seem to recall GPA having either a Page quality column or a "sure looks nice for the grade" column. Let's use the data that's available to us. And why bring DCs into the discussion, I'm not talking about DCs, and like you, don't follow them enough to offer an opinion one way or another.

 

"Across the board" means most SA Marvels, in both high grade to low grade, are trending lower. Not ALL, and NOT all the time. Yes there are exceptions. There are ALWAYS exceptions. Uber Keys are the most resistant, Other notables being White paged, ultra high grade early Marvel books (the cream of the crop). They are rarely made available on ebay in a no reserve format like they used to be, and now fetch excellent money on sites like Pedigree and Comiclink where the seller controls the pricing entirely (assuming they sell at all, many sit a long time at those nosebleed prices)

 

Not that I blame anyone who does it, but the market has clearly changed, and this is a sign of it. I remember the days when putting a HTF early Marvel in high grade on ebay all but guaranteed you a record sales price (the Eides books did pretty well), now books like that are often put up with a high starting bid or a reserve. Seller's strategies change as the market changes.

 

This discussion really comes down to supply and demand. And as awesome as Silver Age Marvels are, they are out there in abundance, to the point where all but the highest graded and/or scarcest copies (which transact in a very limited circle anyway) have hit their price peaks and are in the midst of a prolonged correction.

 

But if you want to take issue with my assertion that SA Marvels as a whole aren't bringing the prices they used to, hey, your free to believe what you want.

[tth2]

I remember the days when putting a HTF early Marvel in high grade on ebay all but guaranteed you a record sales price (the Eides books did pretty well), now books like that are often put up with a high starting bid or a reserve. Seller's strategies change as the market changes.

That`s a pretty tough benchmark to compare the market to. No item can set new record prices forever (and when they do everyone screams that there`s a bubble ). The record prices in the early eBay/CGC days reflected that the market thought HG books with 3rd-party certification were an undervalued asset. For a while, the record prices begat new record prices, as people jumped in afraid to miss the train. At some point, it had to stabilize and correct, which is what it has done for a large segment of the market.

 

In fact, I`d say we`ve had more of a soft landing for this segment than a crash, which to be honest is surprising to me. I`m amazed that 9.4 and higher post-1965 Marvels have stayed at the levels that they have. Every time I see a 9.4 copy of the 1968 Big 4 (Iron Man #1, Captain America #100, Hulk #102 and Sub-Mariner #1) go for the prices that they do, I just shake my head and wonder when collectors are going to decide to just hold off.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

That`s a pretty tough benchmark to compare the market to. No item can set new record prices forever (and when they do everyone screams that there`s a bubble ).

 

No, of course, I wasn't using those days as a benchmark of normal market activity, but rather as proof of a peak. Just like people waiting out in the cold for days just so they could get one of the first pre-construction contracts at a new subdivision was indicative of peak market activity in housing.

 

I would also agree that the ongoing correction has been pretty soft and gradual, but the softness has continued and has room to take prices even lower.

[joe_collector]

Who knows? Maybe the seller took the money and blew it on a trip to Vegas, or bought a new car, which depreciated the moment it left the lot. Or a bad investment. Maybe the guy put it into a nice "safe" investment in 2001 like GM or Ford.

 

But you cannot just assume he ate the money with peanut butter, like many of you are. You must account for the opportunity cost of NOT selling and not being able to move that money elsewhere.

 

One small example of this was when I blew out all my Valiants. It was around 1992-93 and I got good coin, but there was still some upward movement left, so some on here have stated that I "should have waited" and sold for more in a year or so.

 

But that totally ignores the fact that I used the proceeds to immediately buy heavily-discounted HG early-BA, and I don't even think I need to tell you the insane price appreciation there.

[tth2]

Who knows? Maybe the seller took the money and blew it on a trip to Vegas, or bought a new car, which depreciated the moment it left the lot. Or a bad investment. Maybe the guy put it into a nice "safe" investment in 2001 like GM or Ford.

 

But you cannot just assume he ate the money with peanut butter, like many of you are. You must account for the opportunity cost of NOT selling and not being able to move that money elsewhere.

 

One small example of this was when I blew out all my Valiants. It was around 1992-93 and I got good coin, but there was still some upward movement left, so some on here have stated that I "should have waited" and sold for more in a year or so.

 

But that totally ignores the fact that I used the proceeds to immediately buy heavily-discounted HG early-BA, and I don't even think I need to tell you the insane price appreciation there.

Sigh. I was simply trying to make the point that market timing is very very difficult. For every person that missed the peak in JTMF`s example, there were people that were fortunate to have resisted the urge to sell. Of course, I forgot that the point of this thread was really for you to confirm (yet again) that you`re the greatest financial genius of all time.

[LordRahl]

I'm saying that pre '66 Marvels in 8.0+ are not trending lower and neither are post '66 Marvels in super high grade that are tough to find, super high grade will vary from book to book depending on which books are tough at 9.4, 9.6 etc. White paged early Marvels in 8.0+ generally go for a premium as do books with superior eye appeal, check out the early FF's that have sold recently. If you're saying that most books have been trending lower except for pre '66 Marvels in 8.0+, then you're excluding a huge part of the market and the part that is most resistant to price dips because of scarcity. BTW, you take me to task because GPA does not list page quality but you conveniently fail to mention what the page quality was on the books you cited as examples. I know we've had this discussion before and you seem to ignore the fact that anything less than off-white pages usually brings a discount(sometimes significant) to GPA prices.

[gpanalysis]

I know we've had this discussion before and you seem to ignore the fact that anything less than off-white pages usually brings a discount(sometimes significant) to GPA prices.

 

I'm sorry to tell you that this is not the general rule. Higher Page Quality doesn't always bring a higher premium.

[gpanalysis]

I'm saying that pre '66 Marvels in 8.0+ are not trending lower

 

8.0 to 9.2 Marvels (1956-1969) are definately trending back up. But this is after a dip post Q3 2004, which has seen them gradually reach the previous highs of Q1 2004 to Q3 2004. Similarly when you redefine the era as 1960-1965, although not quite reaching the record of Q1 2004 (but trending sharply up nevertheless).

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I'm saying that pre '66 Marvels in 8.0+ are not trending lower

 

8.0 to 9.2 Marvels (1956-1969) are definately trending back up. But this is after a dip post Q3 2004, which has seen them gradually reach the previous highs of Q1 2004 to Q3 2004. Similarly when you redefine the era as 1960-1965, although not quite reaching the record of Q1 2004 (but trending sharply up nevertheless).

 

I did a quick check of 4 SA minor keys earlier today (in all grades), and I didn't come to the same conclusion. The trend overall was down, with a near 2 to 1 decliners to advancers ratio. Of course, you have access to a much greater breadth of reports and data then we do as individual subscribers, and I'm willing to concede my small search wasn't the best representative sample.

 

Any chance we can get a nifty graph or two to see how mid-grade (5.0-7.5) and high grade (8.0+) pre 65 Marvels are doing?

[gpanalysis]

I did a quick check of 4 SA minor keys earlier today (in all grades), and I didn't come to the same conclusion. The trend overall was down, with a near 2 to 1 decliners to advancers ratio. Of course, you have access to a much greater breadth of reports and data then we do as individual subscribers, and I'm willing to concede my small search wasn't the best representative sample.

 

Any chance we can get a nifty graph or two to see how mid-grade (5.0-7.5) and high grade (8.0+) pre 65 Marvels are doing?

 

Sorry for the slow response back...

 

I guess looking at specific books one will always see trends that are in contrast to what the market (or even segments of the market) is doing. So agreed with you there will be all kinds of differing trends depending on what book or selection of books you look at.

 

The methodology I am using is looking at median quarterly prices across the board for a specific segment. And I can adjust the lower cut-off which gives us an indication of quarters where the median has been skewed a bit. But looking at quarterly numbers and applying a spline curve (smoothing effect) can give you a good idea of where things are trending.

[gpanalysis]

Any chance we can get a nifty graph or two to see how mid-grade (5.0-7.5) and high grade (8.0+) pre 65 Marvels are doing?

 

Happy to if you can give me some further details. I can adjust the following:

 

1. Specific title or all titles

2. Specific publisher or all publishers

3. Era (Vic/Plat, Gold, Atomic, Silver, Bronze, Copper, Modern) or specific start/end year

4. Specific grade or grade range

5. Exclude restored books (default)

6. Value cut-off (so we can look at all prices for that quarter or exlude say anything under $50)

[LordRahl]

I know we've had this discussion before and you seem to ignore the fact that anything less than off-white pages usually brings a discount(sometimes significant) to GPA prices.

 

I'm sorry to tell you that this is not the general rule. Higher Page Quality doesn't always bring a higher premium.

 

Seems to me that the inverse does happen. Once high grade books get to cream to off-white pages, the prices start dropping. This is based on limited books that I've followed for one reason or another but I've been waiting for you guys to start tracking page quality for me to be able to confirm this. So, any plans to start tracking page quality in the near future?

[gpanalysis]

I know we've had this discussion before and you seem to ignore the fact that anything less than off-white pages usually brings a discount(sometimes significant) to GPA prices.

 

I'm sorry to tell you that this is not the general rule. Higher Page Quality doesn't always bring a higher premium.

 

Seems to me that the inverse does happen. Once high grade books get to cream to off-white pages, the prices start dropping. This is based on limited books that I've followed for one reason or another but I've been waiting for you guys to start tracking page quality for me to be able to confirm this. So, any plans to start tracking page quality in the near future?

 

We have been tracking serial numbers for a while which we will use to extract the page quality info of all sales and hope to make this available through our service in the future. Almost all of our data providers have been supplying serial numbers for theirall sales. With eBay we probably capture a good portion also.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Any chance we can get a nifty graph or two to see how mid-grade (5.0-7.5) and high grade (8.0+) pre 65 Marvels are doing?

 

Happy to if you can give me some further details. I can adjust the following:

 

1. Specific title or all titles All titles

2. Specific publisher or all publishers Marvel

3. Era (Vic/Plat, Gold, Atomic, Silver, Bronze, Copper, Modern) or specific start/end year Silver or 1962-1966

4. Specific grade or grade range all grades

5. Exclude restored books (default) yes

6. Value cut-off (so we can look at all prices for that quarter or exlude say anything under $50) All prices

 

Can we do that going back 6-8 quarters or so? Your efforts are appreciated.

[gpanalysis]

4. Specific grade or grade range all grades

 

I assume you mean do a chart for each grade?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

4. Specific grade or grade range all grades

 

I assume you mean do a chart for each grade?

 

Would it be possible to do one chart with all grades/prices quarter over quarter?

 

Anyway you think would work best is fine with me.