Holy Marvel Pictureframes..now that's a nice price!

[joe_collector]

X-Men #79 is dated December 1972. It’s currently $90 in guide. According to CGC’s census, 18 copies have been graded so far.

 

Let's take a look at some other December 1972 books shall we:

 

Thor 206: 3 copies graded

Hulk 158: 7 copies graded

Sub-Mariner 56: 10 copies graded

Luke Cage HFH 4: 8 copies graded

Captain America 156: 23 copies graded

Iron Man 53: 21 copies graded

Warlock 3: 13 copies graded

Journey into Mystery 2: 6 copies graded

Doc Savage 2: 5 copies graded

 

Someone call the Scarcity Police!!!

 

P.S. Please don't post a "but the Guide value are different" comment, as in the real world, many of these comics sell for a sharp premium in CGC 9.4 or higher. I know, as I chased a few Rosa books.

[joe_collector]

Many people here are saying that there are still a lot of high grade copies of X-Men #79 out there.

 

No, I said that when I was actively searching for my X-Men run (80's), I had absolutely no problem finding NM copies. I think they sold for $10-$15 back then, which was a big premium and far removed from Marvel Tales and MGC. So dealers were NOT throwing them away or tossing these into quarter boxes.

 

As to where they all went, I can only assume that the scarfed up copies found their way into collections like mine, and likely won't see the light of day for a decade or two.

[jbud73]

I still contend that the slabbed copies in existance are such a miniscule % of the total print run that any extrapolation is dubious at best. Of course you could counter that, the very fact so few copies have been graded is an indicator. However, there are LARGE assumptions behind that retort (universal knowledge of CGC on the part of a significant % of individuals owning a copy is a HUGE assumption) which at this time make it far more accurate to have all statements of scaricity only valid within the overall population of slabbed comics.

 

To take the empirical evidence and apply it generally is extremely weak at best.

[jbud73]

Many people here are saying that there are still a lot of high grade copies of X-Men #79 out there.

 

No, I said that when I was actively searching for my X-Men run (80's), I had absolutely no problem finding NM copies. I think they sold for $10-$15 back then, which was a big premium and far removed from Marvel Tales and MGC. So dealers were NOT throwing them away or tossing these into quarter boxes.

 

As to where they all went, I can only assume that the scarfed up copies found their way into collections like mine, and likely won't see the light of day for a decade or two.

 

Vince do you have approx circulation figures +/- 5% accuracy?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

To take the empirical evidence and apply it generally is extremely weak at best.

 

JBud, its the only evidence we as collectors have. Point out that a particular book has barely been submitted to CGC or is near non-existent in high grade in the census and you are met with the following:

 

- Its not expensive enough in the Guide to justify submitting it (discounting the fact that similar issues with similar Guide values are readily abundant in the Census).

 

- or, there are plenty of untouched high grade collections out there with who-knows how many copies yet to come to market.

 

The problem is that both of those fail the logic test miserably, because neither rely on empirical evidence at all. Assuming that a book is scarce in HG because only a couple of copies have been graded is no more foolish then assuming there are dozens of untouched NM copies out there in mythical collections that neither you nor I know about nor can quantify.

 

Especially when you consider that some of the best Pedigree collections didn't have deep runs of 1971-1973 Marvels. The Oakland collection was probably one of the only well known Pedigrees to have the width and breadth of Marvel titles in high grade from this era. Few others did, and many of those came to market years ago. Why is that significant? Because an original owner buying these books off the rack in 1971 would be in his early 50s at least (assuming he was a pretty anal teenage collector when he started and not already older) and the time to part with his treasures and making way for his changing life priorities has probably come and gone.

 

So, if you guys are expecting a ton of baby-boomers OO collections to surface in the coming years, you might be dissappointed. Unless someone has not had anything to do with the hobby at all in the last 7 years, has not picked up a Guide and seen the immediate effect that CGCing your books can do for your returns, I don't think the number of virgin OO collections out there is as great as many think.

[Sal]

Having said all that my qualitative gut tells me its a tough book in HG, but statistical probability lends strong weight to there being double digit 9.4 or better copies in existance.

 

existence vs. availability is the issue at hand, though.

 

there have been, what, 2 9.4 copies of this book for sale in the last 3 years? scarcity of availibility - percieved or real - is what makes this book worth $$$

[drbanner]

Census numbers are a great indicator of relative scarcity, and after 7 years of data, I think they are becoming a pretty good indicator of absolute scarcity on the more valuable and high-grade books.

 

For example, how many raw, unrestored NM+ copies of FF #1, AF #15, etc.,. do people think are out there in "long term collections"? CGC census shows only one of each, and Doug has told us about his copy of FF #1 and who had access to it before he was able to procure it (the two biggest dealers in the country and the biggest Marvel SA collector on the planet), and while I'm not sure if all the major pedigreed copies have been graded by CGC, you would think they would have ended up in either Doug's or Tom's collections if they were truly the best copies available.

 

I'm using an extreme example to make a point here, but I can attest that for the books I've collected over the years, many of the books that were thought to be tough in HG pre-CGC have been confirmed to be tough by the Census. Case in point - before CGC took prices of SA Spideys through the roof, I was putting together a nice, HG run with only a few remaining to upgrade - #60 and #63 included (confirmed by the census as being much tougher than the surrounding issues). Same phenomena held true for my late silver/early bronze Adams collection (superhero books like Batman and Detective were easy, horror and mystery titles impossible), my Hulk collection (been looking for a nice #158 4-EVER and it turns out to be the only Hulk under #200 with less than 10 slabbed copies), etc., etc.,. etc.,.

 

And practically speaking, when discussing scarcity and in particular, this X-men #79, does it really matter if there are 5,000 NM copies in "long term collections" if they're never going to be available? And if it does matter, then why would there be over twice as many slabbed copies of #78 and #80?

[joe_collector]

Vince do you have approx circulation figures +/- 5% accuracy?

 

Yeah, and I posted them earlier.

[joe_collector]

So, if you guys are expecting a ton of baby-boomers OO collections to surface in the coming years, you might be dissappointed.

 

Come on, you really can't believe that?

 

We've already seen lots of seriously nice late-SA and BA OO collections come onto EBay, and that number will only grow as more collectors retire and liquidate all their assets.

 

The only difference now, is that instead of carting their books to the LCS or calling a dealer (and getting reamed) many of these collections will appear on EBay first.

[The Less Blob]

"So, if you guys are expecting a ton of baby-boomers OO collections to surface in the coming years, you might be dissappointed. Unless someone has not had anything to do with the hobby at all in the last 7 years, has not picked up a Guide and seen the immediate effect that CGCing your books can do for your returns, I don't think the number of virgin OO collections out there is as great as many think."

 

I own 15,000 comics +/- and have never submitted anything to CGC. Granted, the OO part of my collection probably starts around 1977 (although I have bought chunks of OO collections as they would come into my old LCS) and, admittedly, most of those 15K are not high grade (and neither is anything I bought off the rack in the 70s!!! Those babies got read!)

 

Seriously, OO doesn't mean NM! My old LCS took a nice silver age OO group on consignment and I picked up a nice Hulk 2 out of it. It's a sweeeeeet book and the owner was fairly anal about these things (he was one of these guys who bought 2 copies of everything into even the 90s and tucked them away), but 40+ years later I doubt it would come back better than a VF or VF+ from CGC. For 20-25 of those years there weren't boards and heck, some of those bags in the 70s did more damage than they protected against given what a pain it was to take the books in and out of them. It's a friggin miracle that any pre-65 non-warehouse find book comes back a legit 9.4.

[joe_collector]

It's a friggin miracle that any pre-65 non-warehouse find book comes back a legit 9.4.

 

Yes, it is most imPRESSive.

[divad]

I still contend that the slabbed copies in existance are such a miniscule % of the total print run that any extrapolation is dubious at best. Of course you could counter that, the very fact so few copies have been graded is an indicator. However, there are LARGE assumptions behind that retort (universal knowledge of CGC on the part of a significant % of individuals owning a copy is a HUGE assumption) which at this time make it far more accurate to have all statements of scaricity only valid within the overall population of slabbed comics.

 

To take the empirical evidence and apply it generally is extremely weak at best.

 

I agree that it is a very poor sampling.

[Ghost Town]

To take the empirical evidence and apply it generally is extremely weak at best.

 

I know the CGC census is far from a scientific or complete count of existing books. But I don’t see why it can’t be used for comparison purposes, especially for books of similar age, value, and demand. Sure, it’s not the entire picture, but at least it’s a documented and verified sample of the comic book world.

 

On the other hand, the only evidence I’ve seen posted here to show that X-Men 79 isn’t rare in high grade has been completely anecdotal.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

So, if you guys are expecting a ton of baby-boomers OO collections to surface in the coming years, you might be dissappointed.

 

Come on, you really can't believe that?

 

We've already seen lots of seriously nice late-SA and BA OO collections come onto EBay, and that number will only grow as more collectors retire and liquidate all their assets.

 

The only difference now, is that instead of carting their books to the LCS or calling a dealer (and getting reamed) many of these collections will appear on EBay first.

 

Just remember that the Don Rosa collection, much bally-hooed for both its expansive content and for the meticulous nature of its handling and preservation, only had a percentage of the books judged worthy for certification by Steve Wyatt.

 

Sure, there were a number of nice 9.4s and 9.6s that people were able to pick up raw at the conventions (due mostly to oversight by Wyatt as he was going through thousands of books in a limited amount of time), but percentage-wise, it was hardly a NM collection across the board. I own several non-slabbed Rosas, and they clearly exhibit minor handling wear that keeps them out of the true NM grade. If unread books from such a meticulous collector can survive to the present day as VFs only, why should I assume there are scores more collections out there in even better shape?

 

If anything, hasn't certification taught us that older collectors when bringing their books to market are given an unwelcomed education in what qualifies as NM nowadays?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Seriously, OO doesn't mean NM!

 

You're right, I should have qualified my statement by including "NM" or "high grade".

[joe_collector]

If unread books from such a meticulous collector can survive to the present day as VFs only

 

Wow, what a loaded statement!

 

You did see the tons of CGC 9.4-9.8 CGC Rosa copies, right? And you do realize that a percentage of raw books were not slabbed due to LOW VALUE and not condition, right?

 

Sure, there were VF grade issues, as there are in all expansive collections, but to categorize them as you did above is totally misleading.

 

They had an Iron Man 47 that was absolutely incredible, and probably the best example I've ever seen. How do you think this black covered beauty survived in that shape if Rosa wasn't taking care of his books?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

And you do realize that a percentage of raw books were not slabbed due to LOW VALUE and not condition, right?

 

Negative. I own Rosas from the same title, same issue range, and same value in the price Guide yet some were slabbed, and the others were sold raw. The only thing to differentiate them is grade, not valuation.

 

And speaking of valuation, many of the slabbed Rosas were under $20 books in the Guide.

[joe_collector]

And you do realize that a percentage of raw books were not slabbed due to LOW VALUE and not condition, right?

 

Negative. I own Rosas from the same title, same issue range, and same value in the price Guide yet some were slabbed, and the others were sold raw. The only thing to differentiate them is grade, not valuation.

 

So you're saying that absolutely none of the Rosa books were left unslabbed due to low value?

[joe_collector]

And speaking of valuation, many of the slabbed Rosas were under $20 books in the Guide.

 

I know and I inquired about some of my usual "ultra low Guide Byrne books" and was told the NM copies were still raw because of low Guide and resale value.

 

$20? Many of these are $5 books.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

And you do realize that a percentage of raw books were not slabbed due to LOW VALUE and not condition, right?

 

Negative. I own Rosas from the same title, same issue range, and same value in the price Guide yet some were slabbed, and the others were sold raw. The only thing to differentiate them is grade, not valuation.

 

So you're saying that absolutely none of the Rosa books were left unslabbed due to low value?

 

What I'm saying is that many "low value" books were obviously slabbed because of condition and despite Guide value, while other "low value" books from the same title & Guide value that didn't make the cut were sold raw.