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Show me the spread....

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I'm thinking the spreads may have widened further than that in practice. I don't know if the usually conservative Overstreet will reflect that, though.

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........they may not at first, but i think those speads will widen over the next few years to reflect the change in the market........

 

........i think the reason overstreet is introducing the VF/NM price point is to give them more flexibility to raise the NM values on books that are showing big movements in very high grade..............

 

......cgc has given buyers more confidence in the ultra high grades, thus pushing up prices...........overstreet has to reflect this somehow............

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the smart thing would be for Overstreet to knock the current pricing data down to VF/NM (which, in practice is what the NM 9.4 represents anyway) and then create new, more representative prices for 9.4s That would be an insanely bold step for Overstreet however.

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That would be an insanely bold step for Overstreet however.

 

Not to mention extremely risky. While not always correct, Overstreet prices have a long history behind them, and to throw it all away on what (CGC) will probably be the usual 5-year spike, is taking a huge risk with their buyers.

 

If they make the call to use CGC-like prices in their annual, and the CGC bubble breaks soon after, OS will look like a speculator-driven publication, instead of relying on long-term historical data.

 

That's what almost killed them during the 1990's specualtor-happy days when OS jumped on board with their bi-monthly speculator-driven updates.

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I'm not saying CGC-like spreads. I'm talking about closer to the sort of pricing I see from Metropolis or Superworld (to pick two dealers I buy from on a regular basis) on unslabbed NM books. To my mind, the best reason for Overstreet to add the VF/NM category is to free him up for greater spreads on true NM books.

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I think if they jump prices 40 percent or so on a lot of books they'd be attempting to be trendy. The prices are low in the guide now, but without tossing aside their price history and such I don't see how they can get them up there. Also, I don't think many of us non-dealers are getting the same type of prices on books that big dealers are..they can usually sell their books for much more then we can..

 

Brian

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Not to mention extremely risky. While not always correct, Overstreet prices have a long history behind them, and to throw it all away on what (CGC) will probably be the usual 5-year spike, is taking a huge risk with their buyers.

 

If they make the call to use CGC-like prices in their annual, and the CGC bubble breaks soon after, OS will look like a speculator-driven publication, instead of relying on long-term historical data.

Imagine this: A publication actually printing prices reflective of the current market, in both up and down times.

 

This would be an up time, and prices should reflect that. They should also reflect drops in value in down times.

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Sure, if it's a daily publication, that would catalogue the shifts in price, and keeping track of any huge dips or rises.

 

But remember that Overstreet is an ANNUAL, as in once a year, and if they want to hang their butts out the window by going with CGC-spec prices for the next 365 days, then they deserve their fate.

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I've posted before that I'd love to see a bimonthly OS update... mostly for the market reports and notes on specific books moving at the time.

 

I think the general feeling in response to that was that concern that they'd fall into the trap of feeling some price increases were needed each update. This was a problem with FAN magazine in the 90s.

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