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PGC Mint Sales

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Think of it like this - an Action 1 or a Detective 27 are rare PERIOD.

 

That was the first thing that popped into my mind as well. But not only that the A1/D27 are much rarer than the AF15, they come up for sale much less often than the AF15. So the number of A1/D27 available to obtain at any given time is considerably rarer than even the number existing.

 

As far as 2003 dollars go, I have to wonder, at retirement time, how much that 150K will be worth in future money. It is going to take a heck of a high price to get 150K to reflect inflation 20 or 40 or more years down the road.

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Nevermind DAM, You are too close minded on Batman,besides..your talkin 2003 prices...I'm talking retirement prices

 

Kev, I hope that you are not putting retirement money into comics. Who is seriously going to buy this book in 40 years when you're looking to retire? The few comic collectors that are left that also want to retire and don't have the $150K to blow?

 

Just think about the demographics in relation in to the number of new comics being produced each month (a good indication of the potential future collectors)

Here are some hard facts based on the Standard Catalog of Comic Books:

Batman 169 - 453,745 Feb 1965 (first issue for which data is available)

Batman 218 - 293,897 Feb 1970

Batman 260 - 154,000 Feb 1975

Batman 320 - 129,299 Feb 1980

Batman 380 - 75,303 Feb 1985

Batman 444 - 91,650 Feb 1990

Batman 515 - 51,900 Feb 1995

Batman 574 - 52,339 Feb 2000

 

ASM 21 - na Feb 1965

ASM 81 - 322,195 Feb 1970

ASM 141 - 273,773 Feb 1975

ASM 201 - 296,712 Feb 1980

ASM 261 - 326,695 Feb 1985

ASM 329 - 334,893 Feb 1990

ASM 398 - 234,290 Feb 1995

ASM v2 14 - 113,685 Feb 2000

 

So in 35 years for Batman the distribution declined by almost 8/9ths. For ASM in 30 years the distribution was cut by 2/3rds. I don't think it's so far fetched to assume that in 30 years the prices of these books will be substantially lower than they are now unless the industry really takes some drastic steps to encourage collectors and new readers.

 

You're right - I know a lot about ASM so I'll leave those numbers alone, but regarding Batman, 169 is a bit pricey because of the second SA penguin, but it's still abundant in LG-MG. 218 is an 80 pg giant, again not particulary hard to find and not all that valuable. Batman 260 is a joker 100 pg spectacular and is a bit pricey, Batman 320 and up are pretty much worthless. Why are they worthless? It seems that from a collectability perspective they should be worth a lot as there are fewer of them right? But that also comes with the stigma of having a smaller collector base. And sadly, the overall collector base seems to get smaller over time 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

While there will be some individual hit or miss stocks, over time and index fund is where I would put my retirement money.

 

DAM

 

 

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Nevermind DAM, You are too close minded on Batman,besides..your talkin 2003 prices...I'm talking retirement prices

 

Kev, I hope that you are not putting retirement money into comics. Who is seriously going to buy this book in 40 years when you're looking to retire? The few comic collectors that are left that also want to retire and don't have the $150K to blow?

 

Just think about the demographics in relation in to the number of new comics being produced each month (a good indication of the potential future collectors)

Here are some hard facts based on the Standard Catalog of Comic Books:

Batman 169 - 453,745 Feb 1965 (first issue for which data is available)

Batman 218 - 293,897 Feb 1970

Batman 260 - 154,000 Feb 1975

Batman 320 - 129,299 Feb 1980

Batman 380 - 75,303 Feb 1985

Batman 444 - 91,650 Feb 1990

Batman 515 - 51,900 Feb 1995

Batman 574 - 52,339 Feb 2000

 

ASM 21 - na Feb 1965

ASM 81 - 322,195 Feb 1970

ASM 141 - 273,773 Feb 1975

ASM 201 - 296,712 Feb 1980

ASM 261 - 326,695 Feb 1985

ASM 329 - 334,893 Feb 1990

ASM 398 - 234,290 Feb 1995

ASM v2 14 - 113,685 Feb 2000

 

So in 35 years for Batman the distribution declined by almost 8/9ths. For ASM in 30 years the distribution was cut by 2/3rds. I don't think it's so far fetched to assume that in 30 years the prices of these books will be substantially lower than they are now unless the industry really takes some drastic steps to encourage collectors and new readers.

 

You're right - I know a lot about ASM so I'll leave those numbers alone, but regarding Batman, 169 is a bit pricey because of the second SA penguin, but it's still abundant in LG-MG. 218 is an 80 pg giant, again not particulary hard to find and not all that valuable. Batman 260 is a joker 100 pg spectacular and is a bit pricey, Batman 320 and up are pretty much worthless. Why are they worthless? It seems that from a collectability perspective they should be worth a lot as there are fewer of them right? But that also comes with the stigma of having a smaller collector base. And sadly, the overall collector base seems to get smaller over time 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

While there will be some individual hit or miss stocks, over time and index fund is where I would put my retirement money.

 

DAM

 

 

I was stating that this book (AF 15) will most likely be worth more than 150K by the time I retire.

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I was stating that this book (AF 15) will most likely be worth more than 150K by the time I retire.

 

I don't know how old you are, but if you plan on retiring in 27 years then:

 

Assuming an 8% return, if you buy the AF #15 today (for $150K), you need to sell it for:

 

$1,200,000 in 27 years. 893whatthe.gif

 

 

Is that possible. Yes. Do I think it's likely. No.

 

There is a glass ceiling effect, which is why Dam probably said he would rather buy 150 $1K books now. This way, he would have to average selling each book for $8K to get the same return. That's diversification.

 

And what would happen if a decent number of AF #15 did get graded in 9.4 to 9.6 over that time. That would definitely have a negative effect. And there's the possiblity that some of the AF #15 in NM get resubmitted and come back 9.6's. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

Too much risk for one book.

 

 

 

 

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I tend to agree that there's too much risk for the high $$ for the one book. Besides, I like the concept of buying 150 $1K books better for the following reasons: (1) diversification, (2) bigger collection, (3) easier to liquidate, and (4) can liquidate part of the 150 books if cash-strapped or it's needed. Just my thoughts.

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buying 150 $1000 books would turn out better IMO too. Assuming they were worth $1000 each and had potential to increase over time as opposed to being SA and BA 9.6 and 9.8s at 10x-20x Guide. Those wont IMO worlk out so well.

 

But an earlier post "scoffed" that an AF15 would need to be worth $1.2 million in 27 years. I know that sounds like a rifdiculous price in todays frame of reference. But 27 years is a heck of a long time. In just the past ten years A MILLION $$s has been reduced to attainability. Once inflation comes roaring back, LOTS of "common" stuff will be worth a crummy million bucks. Look at how many million-dollar homes there are now. Now, a 'super-impressive' house costs 2 to 5 million. Heck, a "pretty" nice 2-bedroom or loft in NYC goes for a million easily.

 

Im not saying its a sure thing...or that all comics values will keep up with the price curve of the past 20 years.... But the Best will still be the best...and Spideys 1st appearance sure qualifies on that list.

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Exactly..think about this analogy- Buying AF 15 9.4 is like buying microsoft stock a few years ago...Yes it's a valuable commodity now, but how much room for growth is there? I am sure the value of the book will grow slowly with inflation, and yes- in 20-30 years from now you might make a sizable profit. But how is the rate of return compared to a simple mutual fund or even the SP 500??? I highly doubt the growth of Spiderman will outpace even the slowest mutual fund!

 

So back to my original point (which DAM put very well...) Wilson is limiting his clientele by targetting the COLLECTOR money, because the INVESTOR would have bought it for less at Heritage.

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150 $1000 books or $150000 book??

 

Put it this way would you rather have a $15 book or 10 $1 books??

 

...or even farther a $150 book or 10 $15 books?

 

If you can afford the higher book you would buy it, the thinking being you could afford the lower books at any time.

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150 well chosen $1000 books will triple sooner than the one (in this case very expensive at that price key) will. the 1000 price point is key to the decision because it is evidence of continued collector demand...but, not so high a dollar figure that tripling seems unbelievable.

 

Yknow, Im arguing all over this discussion.

Bottom line IMO, 150K for that book at this time is a bad move. ANYTHING else bought with the cash would do better.

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IMO:

I totally agree that $150K is a little far fetched. I am only saying that if a collector had that kind of money, they would not bother with lower amount books. They probably are after high visibilty items. In much the same way as a GA collector wouldn't bother with Modern books.

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As far as 2003 dollars go, I have to wonder, at retirement time, how much that 150K will be worth in future money. It is going to take a heck of a high price to get 150K to reflect inflation 20 or 40 or more years down the road.

 

If the goal here is to keep up with inflation, which do you think is a better bet:

 

(a) 1 AF #15 CGC 9.4 @ $150,000

 

(b) 26 POUNDS (Holy #@$&!) of gold bullion at current market prices.

 

I'm not sure what the nominal prices of either gold or AF #15 will do over the next few decades, but I'm sure that the gold will still be in demand in 2043, as it has been for the last 5000 years. I don't know how valuable AF #15 will be then, but I'm pretty sure Spidey won't be as popular in 40 years as he is today.

 

I think we've all become numbed by the huge numbers we've seen over the past 5 years (Microsoft secretaries now worth $5 million! Google CEO now worth a google!) that we have a tendency to think that AF #15 "should" be worth $150,000+ and that GI Joe prototypes will "easily" sell for more than $600K (heh heh...bet you could take that one back, Donut!) What people tend to forget is the limited market for these items and just how much other stuff that money can buy that most people would rather own.

 

Should plastic-slabbed funny books really be worth huge multiples of their weight in gold? 893scratchchin-thumb.gif Personally, these days I'd rather have the gold (and some cash to spend on buying TPBs, raw back issues and new issues for my reading pleasure). Does that make me a closet coinee?? confused-smiley-013.gif

 

Gene

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Let me just sum it up point blank - who's going to buy this book at $1.2mm in 27 years? (I used 27 just because it's been thrown around previously and $1.2mm using the 8% return compounded over 27 years, a reasonable rate of return IMO).

 

If you can conclusively prove to me that the collector base for SA HG keys will continue to grow, I'll concede my defeat.

 

Let's face it, the back issue market is something that is blatantly being challenged by Marvel, DC (insert publisher of choice here) with the abundant reprintings of books of all ages in TPBs. This has effectively taken the comic book "reader" out of the back issue market place as they have at their hands so many substitutes.

 

That leaves the collectors and the investors/speculators. First the collectors: the collectors will always want an original copy of a book. But a book like AF 15 is by no means rare at all! Take a look at this ebay search And by some happy twist of fate, you can buy a CGC 9.0 Curator Copy (unarguably HG) for $38K right now.

If a collector wants a copy, it's not hard to find one. If someone wants to find one in grade that becomes a different story, but that then leads us to the investors/speculators.

 

By definition, the investors/speculators are seeking the highest possible return on their money with the least possible risk. Once the stock market again shows us that you can make good returns with minimal risk, the investors/speculators will be out in droves unless the price appreciation of comics continues. But I do feel that comics in particular are subject to a glass ceiling. Comics is a poor man's hobby. Look at the prices that some coins go for. Look at the prices of "real" (ie museum piece) art. Comics doesn't attract the same uber wealthy collector base that some of these other hobbies have.

 

To get back to the question at hand, let me attempt to answer "who will buy this book". In my opinion, you have two choices: the next generation or the current collectors/investors. Lets look at the next generation of collectors/investors, ie the teens, pre-teens and children. For this generation comics have lost the place that they once held. I'm 24 and when I grew up EVERYONE at school was into comics. Take it back 30 years and EVERYONE at school was still into comics. Now kids are more into yu-gi-oh, pokemon, video games, etc. I am not saying that movies like Spider-Man dont' do a great job of promoting character awareness, but that awareness transalted into higher merchandise revenues through DVDs, video games, t-shirts, toys, etc.

 

Next, let's take a look at Marvel. With their hair brained scheme of renumbering, the kids today will think that Spider-Man is from 2000 (or whenever the relaunch was). Maybe better yet, some kids will only want USM 1. Hey, why not? I can't help but feel that the nostalgia "wall book" effect is vital in keeping this book popular amongst the current collector/investor base, the ability to possess that which as a child was unattainable.

 

Let's now examine the existing comic collector/investor base of HG SA key CGC books. Let me use this board as an example. I would say that the average age on this board is probably low 30s. Therefore in 27 years when the average age is closer to 60 you are betting on:

1 - the people that are collecting will still be collecting

2 - the people that are collecting will have enough for retirement that they could conceivably spend the $1.2mm on the book

3 - the census numbers don't change dramatically as to show an "oversupply" of true NM/NM+/NM/MT copies.

 

Those are big ifs.

 

This comic will definitely possess some value in the future, 27 years from now, 37 years from now 107 years from now. Yet in chosing investment vehicles for retirement I cannot urge strongly enough to avoid this purchase. Your potential for resale at an acceptable return is just not there.

 

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, I rest my case.

 

DAM

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Five Stars for you DAM.

 

The one other point that I will make (you only touched on briefly) is that this is NOT the HIGH GRADED COPY IN EXSISTENCE.

 

By that I mean, if this book was MINT 10.0, then you only need one REALLY RICH

person to buy this book. Once you get into having more than one of two choices, the glass ceiling effect will be felt more.

 

Obviously, people will buy ONE OF A KIND items at prices that boggle the mind. An Amazing Fantasy #15 in NM is not that.

 

It's not that I don't see a book (or several books) going for over $1,000,000 in the future, but I believe it will be a truly "RARE" book in a truly "RARE" grade.

 

 

 

 

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I'd take the gold as well.

 

The GI Joe did sell for $200K, so I was only off by 2/3.

 

For $150K as an investment - the AF 15 is a stunningly BAD buy. You're buying at the absolute top of the market, assuming that the trendline will continue upwards (which, while it might, is not a good bet). If you want the book as a collector, go ahead. I'd wager significant sums that there are other, better, safer investments out there. Hell, buy TIPS and you're guaranteed 3% over inflation.

 

If you want to "invest" in comics with $150K, its like everything else - diversify, diversify, diversify!

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the GI Joe did sell for $200,000

 

Did it?? Did you see the wire transfer, bank check, or cash change hands?

You have a $200,000 "transaction" between, basically, business partners.

 

When a high profile auction house hypes an item in the media, touts it as a $600,000 piece of earth-shattering, unique significance, and nobody shows even a smidgen of the auction house's incredibly over-optimistic expectations, I would imagine that there needs to be some damage-control, a saving face needed so that in future auctions their estimates on non-comic items won't be regarded as inconsequential.

 

At $200,000.00, it appears that they only over-estimated it by a factor of three. It also puts a number on it that may someday be realized should someone with more money than brains attempt to acquire it.

 

In my opinion, presently, it's being "held", until that type of person and the opportunity presents itself.

 

 

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Hmm...

 

That's a really good point. Damage control it may well be... I certainly have no inside facts as to the deal itself, but I see your point - this was potentially embarassing for Heritage.

 

Dan

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Case in point (and I'm not inferring that this implies between Geppi and Heritage on the GI Joe piece, but just illustrating how some seller's mentality work once they proclaim "full-boat" on an item):

 

There was a very high profile seller in the collectibles (not comics) that had an item that I was interested in for a long time (over a year). Matter of factly, he had such an outlandish price on it, having advertised and displayed it for so long that he was "famous/infamous" for it. He had received very many reasonable, and quite generous offers on it, all of which he turned down.

 

Realizing that he had severely overestimated its value, yet painting himself into a corner with his price, we talked turkey on the item as he knew I did have an interest in it and had said on more than 1 occassion, "If you ever get serious about selling it, we'll talk". He said to me, "Seriously, we need some cash, and one of my partners is adamant about getting his price because, by now, unless we do, or something at least close, it'll make us seem like insufficiently_thoughtful_persons. You're here, what do you want to pay for it?".

 

I thought for awhile, and offered approx. 40% of their asking price. The next day, the item was mine, not only because I was in the right place at the right time, but because the seller knew that I'd keep my mouth shut about how little I actually paid in comparison to the asking price and he could say he got his price without me chiming in or correcting him.

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Bottom line IMO, 150K for that book at this time is a bad move. ANYTHING else bought with the cash would do better.

 

Which reminds me, I have some super rare pogs and slammers from my 1994 Investment stash that are now for sale. I had to turn down Heritage's offer for consignment, and decided to find some suitable suck..er...investors to make these one of a kind items available to. $150,000 will buy you lots of gold-plated plastic fun. insane.gif

 

 

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