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ASM 14...the downward spiral continues.

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As a service to my fellow forumites, I wanted to point out a couple of nifty deals on CGC-graded ASM 14s...

 

ASM 14 CGC VF+ $1450

ASM 14 CGC VF+ $1600

and a not so nifty deal by a dealer who still thinks its April of 2002...

ASM 14 CGC VF+ $2,200

I wish I still collected Spidey's, as 14 was one of my favorite covers. If memory serves, a VF+ copy just sold last week for $1,750 on ebay, so the first two are comparative bargains. Heed this warning however, this book may not have bottomed out yet. Prices may drop further as the supply (especially of 8.0-9.0s) outstrips the demand.

 

 

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The $2200 listing is pegged pretty high - but that seller is top-notch!

They are one of my local comic shops here in Phoenix, and they are really great. That won't make up for the price in anyone's book(or mine either if I had the cash to spend on this book), but there is something to be said for honesty and customer service.

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The second seller - David Alexander - has a good rep as well, as far as I know. I'd have to pass on the cover writing, though.

 

The first book has a stamp sized scan..... you'd have to request a larger scan to actually see the book.

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It could be a great time to buy, or a terrible time. No one but GOD knows, and he ain't telling.

 

Of course, if the first book is nice, that's the one to go for. If I didn't already have a ASM #14 CGC VF/NM I would definitely look into it. The price seems quite reasonable based on prior sales.

 

 

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Doc..you have to understand that this economy sucks,spidey 2 should help the spidey books,it's a great time to buy right now.

 

Unless you're looking into buying an ASM # 3, which has increased about 100% in 9.0 over the past year or so. Watch that book plummet after Spidey 2 comes out. Now if El Brujo ever finds a copy of ASM # 300 in 9.8/9.9, it'd be interesting to see how much that book appreciates if Venom, as expected, makes an appearance in Spidey 3.

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Doc..you have to understand that this economy sucks,spidey 2 should help the spidey books,it's a great time to buy right now.

 

Unless you're looking into buying an ASM # 3, which has increased about 100% in 9.0 over the past year or so. Watch that book plummet after Spidey 2 comes out. Now if El Brujo ever finds a copy of ASM # 300 in 9.8/9.9, it'd be interesting to see how much that book appreciates if Venom, as expected, makes an appearance in Spidey 3.

 

If there is a Spidey 3.

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I would expect that this would be a tough time to get full value for many books unless they are NM (or better).

 

I say this because:

 

1) Many Conventions in the past few months.

2) Many Heritage Auctions

3) Summertime, so more people take vacations, therefore a little less bidding.

4) Movie hype is over for the summer

 

I say NM (or better) because most collectors/investors know that NM books don't always show up. On the other hand VF+ (and better) books are obviously, easier to find, so no need to jump on the first one available, unless the price is an outright steal.

 

I've seen a number of nice VF+ to NM- books either fail to get a bid at a reasonable price, or sell for below what they sold for a few months ago.

 

We will see if this corrects itself in a month or so, or is the start of a downward trend. 893whatthe.gif

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i don't know but maybe the market is correcting itself on ASM 14 or in general.

 

ASM 14, definitely. Overall, possibly.... or maybe the spread between 8.5 and 9.2/9.4 is widening again, with the supply of 8.5 CGCs and below increasing at a greater rate than the higher grades.

 

If there is a Spidey 3.

 

Unless Spidey 2 makes less than 100M..... there's a Spidey 3.

 

Doc..you have to understand that this economy sucks,spidey 2 should help the spidey books,it's a great time to buy right now.

 

I'm not sure how this post relates to my post it is replying to, but I'll go with it..... the Spidey books have been a mixed bag lately - at least the ones I've seen. There've been some bargains, and there've been a rash of over-the-top prices paid. I'll take your word on the US economy; ours has been growing a bit better.

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Watch that book plummet after Spidey 2 comes out

 

ASM #3 in grades of VF and under may artificially heat up, then fall, but 9.0+ copies are not going to "plummet". The book's scarce as hell in very high grades(at least as far as ASM's go) and I guarantee most of the nicer copies are locked up.

 

In my time tracking sales, I've seen many, many ASM #14's in 9.0-9.4 pop up, before, during, and after the Spidey hype. In that same time, I have only seen a small handful of 9.0+ ASM #3's, and a 9.4 is nearly a 20K book. ASM #14 has seen a correction, but I doubt super high grade ASM #3's will see as drastic of a change.

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Regarding most books:

 

In general, I wouldn't expect to see huge price corrections (on the downside) unless the supply increases dramatically, over a short time period (one or two years).

 

In general, late Silver-Age and newer books have the biggest risk of see an oversupply situation. I think many of us saw the huge quanities of "Raw" Amazing Spider-Man books that one forum member has. While I don't know how many are NM, there probably was a few (especially the Bronze-Age issues).

 

The flip side is, never get carried away with the idea that even if you overpay today, you will be all right down the road. Certain dealers try to make that point but that's just !@##$%. 893frustrated.gif

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In the MarketPlace.

 

NativeNewYork showed scans and scans of multiple copies of ASM. He said that many were uncirculated issues. It was impossible to tell the grade but he said most were VF to NM.

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Watch that book plummet after Spidey 2 comes out

 

ASM #3 in grades of VF and under may artificially heat up, then fall, but 9.0+ copies are not going to "plummet". The book's scarce as hell in very high grades(at least as far as ASM's go) and I guarantee most of the nicer copies are locked up.

 

When do you think the ASM #3 in grades below VF will artificially heat up? I'm asking because I have a copy in CGC 6.5 that I am looking for the best time to sell. I was thinking sometime in the spring of next year. Spidey 2 is supposed to come out Memorial Day, isn't it?

 

Thanks,

 

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Watch that book plummet after Spidey 2 comes out

 

ASM #3 in grades of VF and under may artificially heat up, then fall, but 9.0+ copies are not going to "plummet". The book's scarce as hell in very high grades(at least as far as ASM's go) and I guarantee most of the nicer copies are locked up.

 

If Amazing Fantasy 15 can see an almost 50% drop in price within less than a year, you really think ASM #3 is immune from being artificially inflated by movie hype? I've seen this pattern often enough to be 100% positive that it will be.

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One thing I believe everyone should remember is:

 

Regarding expensive High-Grade books,

 

"one sale does not a market make".

 

It quite possible that a book can be sold for double its normal market value and then a few months later sell for a significant discount to its normal market value.

 

Most of the people who have somewhat "unlimited funds" to purchase books would be dealers. And in general, they aren't going to spend $10K or more on a book unless they know they can make a substantial return on their investment in a relatively short time period.

 

 

 

 

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One thing I believe everyone should remember is:

 

Regarding expensive High-Grade books,

 

"one sale does not a market make".

 

It quite possible that a book can be sold for double its normal market value and then a few months later sell for a significant discount to its normal market value.

 

Most of the people who have somewhat "unlimited funds" to purchase books would be dealers. And in general, they aren't going to spend $10K or more on a book unless they know they can make a substantial return on their investment in a relatively short time period.

 

 

I understand that one sale isn't the "market," but the fact that the single most high profile Spider-Man book in existence could sell post-hype for a 40% discount to its pre-hype high is pertinent information. Andrew stated his thesis that because of rarity in high grade, ASM #3 was immune to such fluctuations. I simply chose the first book that came to mind that illustrated that rarity isn't an automatic salve for surviving paying hype inflated prices- at least in the short term. If I'm not mistaken that same unfortunate guy lost money on more than that book, he lost money on several of the books he bought at the top.

 

Beyond that, I could have gone back and paged through guides around the Batman movie mania, which was hotter than Spider-Man by the way, and found (at minimum) anecdotal evidence of Golden Age books that fell victim to this very phenomenon.

 

 

 

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Rob

 

I did not disagree with anything you said. I just wanted to make a point that one sale of a book does not give a true picture of the books market value.

 

I personally think the movie hype concept will be less and less of a factor as time goes on. I didn't really see any spike in prices for the Hulk or X-Men.

 

 

 

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