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ASM 14...the downward spiral continues.

Started by JiveTurkeyMoFo,

51 posts in this topic

rob_react

rob_react

Posted
Posted
Rob

 

I did not disagree with anything you said. I just wanted to make a point that one sale of a book does not give a true picture of the books market value.

 

Okay. It's definitely a useful thing to remember.

 

I personally think the movie hype concept will be less and less of a factor as time goes on. I didn't really see any spike in prices for the Hulk or X-Men.

 

 

 

True. There were no more than a couple of above average sales for Hulk that I'm aware of. I think either Daredevil made people wary or the way The Hulk itself looked in previews didn't inspire confidence. I also didn't see anything surrounding X2 that really struck me as hype inspired. Sales of X-Men 101 were brisk when I followed them, based on X3/ Dark Phoenix story speculation, but beyond that, nothing out of the ordinary.

 

Which brings me to another thing I've been thinking of... The original X-Men movie did drive sales, but the sequel did not. It was the same with the first Batman movie. The original made Batman the hottest property in comics, while none of the sequels did much at all to lift back issue sales. It seemed that the trend had burnt itself out. Which makes me wonder if, beyond the specific interest in ASM #3, there actually will be any further movie fueled hype generated by the Spider-Man franchise, as the cat's already out of the bag, so to speak. Time will tell.

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Kevin76

Kevin76

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i don't know but maybe the market is correcting itself on ASM 14 or in general. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

The market is not "correcting" itself..again..just because the prices are not as high as they used to be is because of the economy.People are getting laid off, verizon ect...People are not spending the cash on books right now,plus it is summer which like all businesses are slow this time,The fall is a good time.summer is not.You can't get a "feel" for the market cuase of what sells on ebay,alot of people seem to think ebay is the market.When a book sells on comiclink for 20 times guide, people say.."whoa! that guy paid too much,he could have got it on ebay for much less" Again with ebay.I don't think alot of people realize how much books go for when sold privatley...Look at Bechara,that guy sells every 9.6 for 8-10 times guide no matter what it is, people Pay it!

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dam60

dam60

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Which brings me to another thing I've been thinking of... The original X-Men movie did drive sales, but the sequel did not. It was the same with the first Batman movie. The original made Batman the hottest property in comics, while none of the sequels did much at all to lift back issue sales. It seemed that the trend had burnt itself out. Which makes me wonder if, beyond the specific interest in ASM #3, there actually will be any further movie fueled hype generated by the Spider-Man franchise, as the cat's already out of the bag, so to speak. Time will tell.

 

Ah!! Just what I was thinking! Let's think of it like this (and once I get home and have my standard catalog of books in front of me it will be a bit easier to have some hard cats) but when Batman came out it appealed to a generation of adults and children who were literally inundated with comics. When Spider-Man came out it appealed to a generation of adults but no children (at least compared to 1989). In 10 years if things keep up as they are, a XYZ comic movie will appeal to older adults and that's about it . . . .

 

It would be interesting to compare the print runs of a Batman, Action, Uncanny X-Men, and ASM every 5 years from 1963 to 2003. The essence of the argument being that if there weren't xyz collectors, they wouldn't have printed xyz comics. Now people buy more than 1 issue and most books still don't clear 100K copies. (and yes, I have the Hush run 4x).

 

For back issue prices to sustain themselves we really need more new collectors and that starts with new children reading books.

 

Okay, I'm getting off my soapbox now . . .

 

DAM

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g-man

g-man

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i wouldn't give person_without_enough_empathyera the time of day. i agree ebay is just one outlet for cgc books. there are shows,heritage, private deals, other auctions, etc....but at least u would have to admit that a book that sells for say $300 consistently on ebay goes for $500 on another site, the buyer is perceived to have paid too much. Now of course ther are exceptions to this but generally this is the case. the economy is picking up, the market is back over 9k and has stayed there for a few weeks. Unemployment is still a concern but the overall picture is not as bleak as 6 months- a year ago.

 

893Rant-Smilie-thumb.gif

 

 

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sfilosa

sfilosa

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Two points:

 

1) In general the comic book market does better in a weak economy because usually the stock market is down. The comic book market did well in 1990-1991 and from 2000-to present and the economy and stock market were both in ruts.

The simple explanation is: Why put money into the stock market when it is going down or is flat. People will tend to spend money on other items and if collecting comics is thier hobby, then they will spend it on comics. Once the stock market starts going up (and it has recently), I would expect a little bit less of an investor type mentality in the comic book market.

 

 

2) CGC changed everything regarding HIGH-GRADE books and there perceived values. Just like many of us believe that the movie hype concept is wearing off, I believe the CGC effect will wear off to. That doesn't mean that prices will necessarily go down, but I do believe the spread between a NM-and a NM book will shrink. Right now, for Silver-Age books NM- books go for 1/2 of NM books. That seems too wide considering both books are clearly HIGH-GRADE. And as more and more books are grading, its possible that a NM book might not be considered INVESTMENT QUALITY. Obviously in modern books this is already the case.

 

 

 

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COI

COI

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Andrew stated his thesis that because of rarity in high grade, ASM #3 was immune to such fluctuations. I simply chose the first book that came to mind that illustrated that rarity isn't an automatic salve for surviving paying hype inflated prices- at least in the short term. If I'm not mistaken that same unfortunate guy lost money on more than that book, he lost money on several of the books he bought at the top.

 

You're right......I didn't necessarily mean that ASM #3 was immune to price fluctuations, but I just don't think in this case we will see huge ups and downs for this issue. For one thing, I highly doubt we're going to see the kind of hype aroud Spidey 2 that we did around the first movie. I'm positive that enough movie speculators have learned their lesson in regards to paying too much before the release of a movie(I hope so anyway).

 

Also, people always point out that drop in AF #15, but that was just one sale compared to another. There's a big difference between a book like ASM #3, and AF #15 because of the high value. There aren't many collectors who can afford an AF #15 in 9.4, so the timing has to be right for the seller. The guy who unloaded that huge ASM collection, did so in a foolish way and at a foolish time. There just wasn't enough cashflow to properly absorb the collection.

 

Bottom line is, I just don't see there being a huge correction on ASM #3 in 9.0+ in the long term. As for fluctuations, you're right, it may happen. We'll see.

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ubiquiti

ubiquiti

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Two points:

 

1) In general the comic book market does better in a weak economy because usually the stock market is down. The comic book market did well in 1990-1991 and from 2000-to present and the economy and stock market were both in ruts.

The simple explanation is: Why put money into the stock market when it is going down or is flat. People will tend to spend money on other items and if collecting comics is thier hobby, then they will spend it on comics. Once the stock market starts going up (and it has recently), I would expect a little bit less of an investor type mentality in the comic book market.

 

 

2) CGC changed everything regarding HIGH-GRADE books and there perceived values. Just like many of us believe that the movie hype concept is wearing off, I believe the CGC effect will wear off to. That doesn't mean that prices will necessarily go down, but I do believe the spread between a NM-and a NM book will shrink. Right now, for Silver-Age books NM- books go for 1/2 of NM books. That seems too wide considering both books are clearly HIGH-GRADE. And as more and more books are grading, its possible that a NM book might not be considered INVESTMENT QUALITY. Obviously in modern books this is already the case.

 

 

 

I agree with point 2.

But I think you are off the mark on point 1....to some extent. it is not really accurate to compare 90/91 to post 2000. Mostly because many of the people losing jobs, etc. post 2000 made more money 3 years previous than they ever had, and most were capable of being unemployed for a little while anyway. But since the poor economy has extended some 3 years now, people are going to be worried about stuff like car insurance, the mortgage, and eating. I'm sure most out of work people are less concerned with "investment" or perceived investment than they are not losing their house, car, etc. I think we are also going to start seeing people also adopt a "depression mentality" to some extent with money as well...Take savings money and put it in a coffee can and bury it, and spend no money on anything frivolous. The coffee can reference is more accurately likely a savings account, which right now is about the same dang thing.

I think the surge in the comic book market and the two time periods you mentioned was more likely the comic book market being about a year behind the economy. if the economy does not get better - and there is nothing pointing to it getting better - it will likely get much worse, you will see comic prices continue to drop.

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sfilosa

sfilosa

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My point regarding the economy was more a factor of the stock market. If you can make double digit returns in the stock market, you will not see as many people "INVESTING" in comics. The true collectors will always buy, but it is the investors that usually push prices higher and higher.

 

 

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brian1227

brian1227

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All of you make very valid and lucid points. That being said, I'm having a hard time keeping myself from hitting the BIN button on one of those ASM #14's...lol.

 

At least with me, it's more than investing in a book, especially with Silver Age Spidey's. I grew up with these books....ASM # 3 was the first comic I ever owned. While I think I can probably get a better deal on that book after Spidey 2 hype (real or imagined) dies down...I am really debating whether to just pick up one of the 14's and put it under my pillow just to look at it every night. So what if my daughter has to wait an extra year for braces....those are nice prices for that book.

 

893blahblah.gif

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