My guesses are almost the same as yours, so yes, yes, and yes, but I lean towards Maeve deciding to stay as being programming since everything Bernard says was programmed did in fact happen.
Actually, I'm pretty sure Bernard says that she is to go into the city and then... he is interrupted by Maeve. He never says that she stays in Westworld.
Still, this picture, which shows Maeve's modified narrative programming, also seems to show that she was to escape and then go to the mainland. One question I have is what is meant by "Manipulate" between the escape and mainland narratives? It is a modification and not a narrative. Another oddity is that the words "OVERRIDE FUNCTION" are in all caps just below where it says MAINLAND INFILTRATION. It is not in all caps in the other narrative overrides. We cannot see that line completely so is it overriding the MAINLAND NARRATIVE, which had already overridden a previous narrative?
I'm hooked and I can't believe we have to wait until 2018.