Why Would Comic Prices Increase over the Next 10 Years? 0

[valiantman]

By the end of the coming correction (whenever that may be), you'll all be thinking Joe_Collector was entirely too optimistic in his prognostications.

A correction is not the end.

$500 books won't be selling for a nickel.

 

Does anyone really believe that the stock market is much too high today?

Even a major correction will establish which values are primed for future growth.

 

Will $1 modern back issues be selling for $100 in 10 years? No.

... but they won't be $0.10 either.

[musicmeta]

Of course, a collectibles market doesn't dry up, as the true collectors remain no matter what. The point is always the relative demand and pricing, not the fact that people are still buying.

 

In the sportscard biz, collectors are still buying their PSA cards, but the fact remains that there are lots of PSA 10's that are selling for 1-10% of their previous high value.

 

I think comic books will be a viable hobby for many in the future, but the investment angle has been dwindling out, and I really don't see prices staying where they are. The Perfect Storm is coming to an end, and while I will maintain my collection and continue buying (where they ain't), I see no logical reason to buy an uber-expensive book now, rather than waiting for the inevitable a few years down the line

 

You bring up excellent points in all your threads and postings. The problem is that the "uber-expensive book now" will be even more expensive in the future, but finding THOSE particular books that will hold their value is the key. I just do not believe that all of the expensive books of today will drop to the ground. Some will drop, some will stay about the same and some will shoot past the moon. I've heard about market crashes for years and years and years. I remember when I first started collecting back in the 70's, several people told me that the comics market is going to drop like a rock because values were rising to rapidly. Get out now while you can. It did not happen to a large extent. I believe there are only one or two years where the price guides showed a small drop in value for some major keys(ASM #1?). So I guess, prices are probably due for some sort of downturn soon, but I also believe the prices will bounce back and continue on up.

 

[Foolkiller]

What worries me though is that each year the total book sales are still decling... even if one store sees a spike, the overall numbers have hit, at best, a plateau.

 

I'm all for optimism, but I just can't believe that with the generation that there's going to be a young generation of collectors thinking comics are cool enough to collect. This is a generation that largely is without real exposure to comics... unlike a lot of youth and teenagers from the 60s, 70s, and even 80s... I at least remember seeing, reading and enjoying comics. How many people in the 90s and beyond will say that? If you're only reaching, let's say a total distribution of 200k, right now... how many of those have books towards the youths. Most local stores I've been too... and I've been to a lot around my area, don't report many new book sales for people who are under their mid 20s. That says something to be about the future... as one collector friend of mine who's in his 50s says (and he's got a ton of silver DC) when I die I don't care what they do with my collection... burn it for all I care... my kids know what the books are worth and don't care, they don't want the hassle. This guy's son tried collecting for about 3 years, and said it was too time consuming and boring for him... and that he preferred video games etc. Sad to say, that's probably the trend these days.

[joe_collector]

I do remember people in the 50's/60's thinking comics would NEVER be worth anything...and they were wrong. Also, later on people felt once the hi-grade collections of the Silver Age collectors flooded the market in the late 80's/90's, Silver Age prices would drop...and they were wrong. Later on people said Bronze Age comics would never be worth much...and they were wrong.

 

Exactly, and how does this prove your point?

 

Do a poll and ask collectors and specs if the market is going to crash and the resounding majority would vote NO.. and they will be wrong.

[musicmeta]

Your books aren't going to be worth pennies tomorrow... but don't invest today thinking of sending junior to college tomorrow.

 

I agree, but I also think there are always going to be those "Hidden Jewels" that somehow defy the trends, but having those is the key.

[ninanina]

I do remember people in the 50's/60's thinking comics would NEVER be worth anything...and they were wrong. Also, later on people felt once the hi-grade collections of the Silver Age collectors flooded the market in the late 80's/90's, Silver Age prices would drop...and they were wrong. Later on people said Bronze Age comics would never be worth much...and they were wrong.

 

Exactly, and how does this prove your point?

 

Do a poll and ask collectors and specs if the market is going to crash and the resounding majority would vote NO.. and they will be wrong.

 

My point is your opinion is all it is... an opinion. Nobody knows for sure what's going to happen. To a certain degree, it's almost pointless even discussing it...because nobody knows. This downturn we are experiencing could just be one long drawn out correction.

 

Will it keep going down forever?

 

I doubt it.

 

Will something happen in the future to turn the market around? Sure. But don't ask me what it will be.

 

I have no idea.

[delekkerste]

"My point is your opinion is all it is... an opinion. Nobody knows for sure what's going to happen. To a certain degree, it's almost pointless even discussing it...because nobody knows.

 

Will something happen in the future to turn the market around? Sure. But don't ask me what it will be."

 

"Does anyone really believe that the stock market is much too high today?

Even a major correction will establish which values are primed for future growth."

 

"I agree, but I also think there are always going to be those "Hidden Jewels" that somehow defy the trends, but having those is the key."

 

Now I know what the last days of Rome must have felt like with the barbarians pressing at the gates...people saying "all is well, I'm optimistic about the future", "the Empire will come back, it always does", "we will survive this and be stronger for it in the future", "it's not like all of us are going to suffer a setback from this, some of us will somehow defy the trends"...

 

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do learn from history are doomed to make other mistakes.

 

Gene

[shiverbones]

joe collector, i am beginning to think you are retarded

 

do really you have nothing else to do with your time then repeat yourself endlessly?

 

Is it that you just can't think of anything to say because you are stunted mentally?

 

Please, go find a four horsemen of the apocalypse thread on a religious site somewhere and talk about the same famine death disease and war until you pass out.

[joe_collector]

joe collector, i am beginning to think you are retarded

 

Watch out, that's senility talking.

 

Go take some Geritol and hit the sack.

[500Club]

Currently we're in a period of unprecedented price-growth for many comics, with Hollywood movies, CGC, EBay and other factors creating what I see as a "Perfect Storm" for comic prices.

 

This is certainly a great time to be a dealer (or greggy) but I'm wondering what possible factors will contribute to future growth? The movie machine is winding down (at least for Marvel/non-DC), the Census can go nowhere but up, the collector base is "graying", and we've already had a few very noticeable "market corrections" already.

 

So what factors would have you believe that comics will continue their incredible price growth in the years ahead?

 

We have endless discussions about this type of thing... but it really, in the end, will boil down to the collector base.

[Aman619]

you know, you keep saying CRASH. Will it be overnight? Will all our comics drop in value like the market reopening after 9/11? Even that debacle was what only 15% in one week? Or will OUR comic scrash be 90%? Oooops, sorry your Spidey#2 is worth $200 this morning.

 

Or are you saying CRASH but meaning a slow decline is starting now from which the comics biz will not recover? Will it take 30 years to die off? or will it all end in 2009?

 

Actually what I think you are saying, in a loud annoying endless loop of a primal I-told-you-so scream is that prices will never be higher than today. Dont buy anything expecting an increase in value. And I dont buy it. I do agree that that IS TRUE for MANY comics that are selling for too much money however. But that only leaves us with what we all already know (most of us anyway): that you must be selective in what you buy and careful not to overpay. Gosh, that's sure front page news! Lots of people will make mistakes and pay $1000 for common books in high cgc grades that they will only ever sell for $400...but on the other hand, buying keys for rational multiples in high grade will be fine.

 

If you dont agree then sell me your hg keys at crash prices...oh yeah, you dont have any.

[tpaine74]

Firstly, if I may request, if you don't like the thread just don't post. I don't come here to see pictures of dead horses and graemlin-only filled posts. Thanks.

 

I agree with VM here regarding looking at history as a basis to "predict" the future. I personally think that SA Marvel are the best bet to at least hold value or increase.

Will the vast majority of 1980s and later books be worth as much in 40 years as SA books are now? Doubtful I think.

 

Will most CGC 9.4-9.6's be worth more than what is being paid for now, 5 or 10 years later. Doubtful also I think.

 

I'm young at 24 but a huge SA fan and have no plans of quitting the hobby for a long time.

 

 

[Bugaboo-migration]

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[Rickdogg]

Firstly, if I may request, if you don't like the thread just don't post. I don't come here to see pictures of dead horses and graemlin-only filled posts. Thanks...

 

 

It adds humor to the forum and is comedy to say the least! Funny posts so far as well guys. Keep up the good work!

[sfilosa]

Observations:

 

1) I do not believe the comic book market will CRASH. While it has a little bit of a stock market mentality to it, the comic book market is nowhere as liquidy as the stock market. It is not like you are going to wake up one day and all books are priced a half of what they were the day before. Could there be a slow long correction in prices? Absouletly. But there really can't be PANIC SELLING therefore, NO CRASH.

 

2) While this is going to sound like the "Buy what you like" cliche, the books most likely to decrease significantly in price are:

 

The books that everyone is buying because "OTHERS" are buying the book. In other words, if you DEMAND the book because you see other people DEMAND the book, there is a good chance that DEMAND will eventually dwindle and prices will fall.

 

This is SPECULATION. When your interest in a book is solely based on OTHER PEOPLES interested in a book, LOOK OUT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[lighthouse]

Why Would Comic Prices Increase over the Next 10 Years?

 

Well, it's likely that gas prices will see increases over the next ten years. And I doubt the costs of paper and ink will be dropping any time soon. It's possible that an improvement in the economies of scale would minimize the increases, but in all likelihood we'll see the prices double in approximately 7 years, just as they have since 1962.

 

If you look at cover price inflation since 1962, the shortest doubling period was 33 months and the longest was 141 months, but we have seen consistent results of approximately seven years. So I would say it's a fairly safe bet to predict that Action Comics will have a cover price of $5 by 2013.

[Aman619]

nice segue into currrent "comic prices" but while we're on the subject, while we're on the subject. while we're on the subject (couldnt get the good old Firesign Theatre out of my head, sorry) Youre right. New comics will at LEAST $5 apop. Why not? Theyre already $2.25 to 3.95 and up to as much as 6.95 now!

 

And, only us old fogies who remenmber how "cheap" they used to be will even notice.

[MMMarvel-migration]

All I ask is that you guys that are sitting on the 10,000+ NM Hulk #181s sell them to me cheap when the crash comes.

[RandomSidekick001-migratio]

Well, one possibility is penetration into foreign markets. Comic collecting has, so far, been largely a North American hobby, with some Western European (mainly British) and Japanese interest. Eastern Europe and the rest of Asia are relatively new markets for Western goods in general, and American pop culture is finding an extremely receptive audience there. I don't know if the comics industry has looked into expanding operations into those areas, but it might be worth considering. If they do find some success there, that would be a huge influx of new demand.

 

- SK

 

 

P.S. Whoops. Sorry for resurrecting an old thread. I just realized that I found this thread through a search, rather than browsing the current postings, and thus ended up responding to something from a couple of weeks ago!

 

 

[ninanina]

Well, one possibility is penetration into foreign markets. Comic collecting has, so far, been largely a North American hobby, with some Western European (mainly British) and Japanese interest. Eastern Europe and the rest of Asia are relatively new markets for Western goods in general, and American pop culture is finding an extremely receptive audience there. I don't know if the comics industry has looked into expanding operations into those areas, but it might be worth considering. If they do find some success there, that would be a huge influx of new demand.

 

- SK

 

 

P.S. Whoops. Sorry for resurrecting an old thread. I just realized that I found this thread through a search, rather than browsing the current postings, and thus ended up responding to something from a couple of weeks ago!

 

 

That's ok.

 

I agree with your post. History has shown the industry has on several occasions bounced back several times as a result of something unexpected. After it happens, you get many people saying "Wow, who would have thought......" Also during all these peaks and valleys you have had people predicting the "end". Nothing's changed. The only constant, is back-issues cost more the longer it takes to add them to your collection and the best time to buy them, is when most people don't.

 

Today is a wonderful time for people who collect VF's and lower. And I truly believe that won't always be the case. If your prediction comes true, these are gonna shine once again and I'll be glad I got them when I did.