A Modern Comic That Sells 200,000+ ?!?

[shiverbones]

thanks lighthouse, i am glad you could "lay it down" about new books!

[lighthouse]

Thanks for the props...

 

As for the game this weekend, I think it will come down to who plays better in the first quarter. If the Ducks are still in the game going into the fourth quarter it will be very difficult for Michigan to deal with the crowd. But there is a distinct possibility that Michigan will jump out to a huge lead early and the Ducks just won't come back from that. Look for the Ducks to run the ball to Samie Parker's side of the field and force the Michigan safeties to commit earlier than they want to. With the nagging injuries to the Wolverines linebacking core, there will be more pressure on the ends and safeties to make big plays. And that's where the game will be decided when Oregon has the ball.

 

I think Belotti's decision to rotate two quarterbacks and four running backs is ridiculous. But it certainly does make life difficult for the defensive coordinator...

 

My money-in-the-bank prediction for the game: If Michigan gets the ball to start the second half they will score on that drive. Autzen Stadium was expanded last year and the fans still underestimate how long it takes to get back to their seats from the half-time festivities. There will be 12,000 empty seats at the 2nd half kickoff and Michigan will have no trouble making adjustments at the line of scrimmage until about 6 minutes into the 3rd quarter...

[fantastic_four]

REALLY fascinating reading. It reminds me of how the big three television networks don't see the volume of viewers they used to before cable TV came out. I didn't think about until you brought it up how comparing a 500,000 average print run on an issue in the 1970s to a 100,000 average print run in 2000 is biased with regards to concluding that comic reading is dying out due to the larger spread of available titles.

[delekkerste]

Origin 1 saw heavy speculation and there was still enough demand to push the book to 10x cover price.

 

This is a terrible comparison. Origin 1 sold out within HOURS. I didn't get to my local shop until near closing time and was not able to purchase a single copy off the stands when it was released. Contrast that with JLA/Avengers #1 - one week later and there are dozens, if not HUNDREDS of unsold copies at my local store alone. There are at least 40 copies out on display and I'll bet there's HUNDREDS more in the back.

 

This is a terrible book to speculate on. This may have been the be-all, end-all project 20 years ago, but now it's just a tired story, with tired characters, with an artist who's best work was done 20 years ago, in a durable format ensuring tons of 9.8-10.0 copies, with a prohibitive $5.95 price tag, with a gi-normous print run. A much better comparison would be "DK2", not "Origin".

 

And to whoever argued the original point about pamphlet sales, this does nothing to prove pamphlets are not being run over by TPBs. Heck, at $5.95 a pop, each issue of this series is practically a mini-TPB. Nobody wants to read 22 pages of a 6-part storyline over 6 months. Here, you are getting a lot more story per issue, and only over 4 issues, not 6 (reference Heidi MacDonald's (of CBG) "satisfying chunk" theory of entertainment).

 

Gene

[lighthouse]

REALLY fascinating reading. It reminds me of how the big three television networks don't see the volume of viewers they used to before cable TV came out. I didn't think about until you brought it up how comparing a 500,000 average print run on an issue in the 1970s to a 100,000 average print run in 2000 is biased with regards to concluding that comic reading is dying out due to the larger spread of available titles.

 

An average mainstream book (Thor, Flash, Iron Man, Superman) is only around 45,000 copies now, but you're right, there's a big difference between the number of titles available today versus the mid-70's. There are a whole lot of comic fans out there who are reading books with circulations of 10K-15K, just as there are folks watching Reno 911, Playmakers, Most Extreme Elimination Challenge, A Baby Story, and Trading Spaces. Television is not all about Monday Night Football and Friends, and comics aren't all about Batman and Uncanny X-Men...

 

I do take a sick pleasure in reading this month that 100 Bullets has passed Spawn in sales, according to Comics and Games Retailer. It will be several months before Diamond and Newsarama are reporting that info, since their charts are based on the comics being shipped, and Spawn ships nearly a year late. But based on the number of copies leaving stores in customer's hands, 100 Bullets has passed Spawn.

[lighthouse]

Gene, I wasn't making suggesting that JLA/Avengers was a good book to speculate on. I was making the point that just because the book sells 200,000 copies doesn't mean that everyone will have one.

 

The more important question is how many people are going to want one. We're not talking about X-Men 1 or X-Force 1 or Spawn 1, where there are more copies than there can ever possibly be demand. We're talking about a mini-series that has about 2.5x as many copies as the current titles of its featured characters. If it sees more than 3x the demand of those titles there is room for prices to rise.

 

I would hesitate to compare this to DK2. Busiek and Perez have a much better chance of shipping their book on time, and there were a lot of Frank Miller fans who did not want a sequel to DKR. Perez fans wanted this series done 20 years ago, but they aren't actively hostile toward its release today.

 

And your local shop is hardly typical. The average store in the country ordered 60 copies of this book (180,000 copies, 3,000 stores). There certainly may be stores around the country that have "HUNDREDS more in the back" but I personally had 70 extra copies of Origin 1 the day it came out. You can't predict trends based on outliers... Truth be told, Greg Buls' orders for the various "hot books" today have more of an impact on prices than anything your shop or mine will do...

[Susanville]

Michigan -8 at Oregon and you're saying give the points? That seems like a lot at a tough place to play like Oregon. I cleaned up last week against Notre Dame (the Irish are weak-arse) but can't say I am too thrilled giving more than a touchdown in Eugene...

[lighthouse]

Michigan -8 at Oregon and you're saying give the points? That seems like a lot at a tough place to play like Oregon. I cleaned up last week against Notre Dame (the Irish are weak-arse) but can't say I am too thrilled giving more than a touchdown in Eugene...

 

Actually this is a game I wouldn't touch with Khaos' wallet... I think the over has some play, but I wouldn't touch the game itself.

 

Since the expansion the crowds haven't had the impact they did from '95-'01. Even though there are more of them, the extra 12,000 seats are filled by people who see it as a social event. And there have been real problems with the fans not coming back by the second-half kickoff. If the Wolverines keep the ball out of Samie Parker's hands, the Ducks will need huge play from Siavii and Valenzuela to keep the score close. Devan Long has been stepping up, but the Ducks can't afford to let Michigan get the kind of lead that forces ClemensFife to throw the ball 35 times...

 

It will be interesting to see what 50,000 people wearing bright yellow looks like on tv....

[drice6900]

 

You saw 80,000+ wearing yellow at the Michigan-Notre Dame game Saturday. The other 25,500 were green-clad Irish. Maybe it looked greener on TV because their faces were turning greener and greener throughout the game

 

Don't underestimate the Wolverine Defense though - they are looking really good, and have only given up 10 points in 3 games.

 

As it is, I wouldn't touch this game either! Trips to the West coast always scare me.

 

- D.

[Darthdiesel]

This is a terrible book to speculate on. This may have been the be-all, end-all project 20 years ago, but now it's just a tired story, with tired characters, with an artist who's best work was done 20 years ago, in a durable format ensuring tons of 9.8-10.0 copies, with a prohibitive $5.95 price tag, with a gi-normous print run. A much better comparison would be "DK2", not "Origin".

 

All points I was trying to make initially ...

[Susanville]

continuing my

 

ok, now i'm confused. first, i'm looking to a comic book thread to get advice on where i should bet my money this weekend. that's bad enough. next, i hear that the over could be a good bet and then another person reminds me how good the michigan defense is. how's a guys supposed to win enough money to get a mad #1 with contradictory advice like this???