ENTERING A NEW ERA -- Foreign Monies flowing into OA

[Ares]

Difference between you and I - I paid for my piece... when do you plan on paying for yours?Bill

when he gets a woman to touch him?

[Mighty Hal]

Since we're talking money....

 

When the USA goes into a recession (and if it hasn't already), how is that going to affect the OA market?

 

If more collectors have to sell pieces just to keep their heads above water -- leading to more art on the market -- won't that depress prices? I know of one CAF'er that's selling pieces he doesn't want to sell for just that reason.

 

Those collectors that are forced to sell artwork are unlikely to be buying it, too -- and that would seem to depress prices further. Euro dollars may make up 30% of the market...personally, I think that number is high...but even our overseas neighbors aren't immune to our economy. And they're watching the OA values just like we are. If prices start to drop, I think their offers will start to drop, too.

 

With fewer and fewer comic buyers under the age of 30, we have an aging collector's base. Spidey isn't going away, Superman isn't going away, but the people that care about them in comic book form ARE going away. This is a real problem as far as building any kind of future collector's base. I've happily paid a premium to get a splash from a book I loved. It's more than the artwork that sells; it's the memory. If fewer people are invested in the original comic book, fewer people are going to pay for artwork from that comic book.

 

And that would seem to mean that, in time, prices will fall.

 

 

[delekkerste]

Those collectors that are forced to sell artwork are unlikely to be buying it, too -- and that would seem to depress prices further. Euro dollars may make up 30% of the market...personally, I think that number is high...but even our overseas neighbors aren't immune to our economy. And they're watching the OA values just like we are. If prices start to drop, I think their offers will start to drop, too.

 

I don't doubt that there is an increasing amount of purchases from overseas due to the weakening dollar, but a 5-10% to 30% shift of sales volume would represent changes in buying habits that I don't think are either probable or attributable to the change in currency values, at least not when viewed in the aggregate (that's not to say that certain dealers couldn't be experiencing it, though). Think about, mathematically, what that would actually represent in terms of magnitude of how much more spending on a relative basis has to occur for those stats to be valid. Personally, I am skeptical that the overseas collecting base of American OA is big enough relative to that found in the U.S. to support the market in the face of growing cracks in the global economic firmament and the off-the-charts escalation of asking prices in the past year.

 

It's like Manhattan real estate today - with layoffs commencing and bonuses sure to be slashed on Wall Street following the summer swoon in the markets (even if much of the losses have since been recouped), the property market is staring a 2008 decline square in the face. And yet, now we are hearing more and more stories in the media and from real estate brokers about foreigners rushing to buy up Manhattan real estate due to the weak dollar. Today I heard on CNBC about how wealthy Irishmen are snapping up $5 million condos left and right to "brag to their friends back home" (scarily, that is not even the first time I have heard this month that the Irish will be the saviors of our property market!) As if there are enough wealthy Irishmen to prop up the entire Manhattan property market...it's ludicrous. But, would anyone doubt that if you surveyed a bunch of real estate brokers here, that they wouldn't tell you that the Irish and other foreigners are snapping up 30% of condos on the market, up from 5-10% five years ago?

 

There's no doubt that the probability of a U.S. recession has increased over the past several months...I read this week that 55% of U.S. hedge fund managers surveyed now expect a recession next year and a growing number of economists would put the odds at one-third or greater. Personally, I think it's around 50-50 that we see one by the end of next year, but 75% that we see one before the end of 2009. Some will undoubtedly point to the price appreciation in OA that occurred during the last recession/slowdown (2000-2002), though whether we see severely negative real interest rates and a housing/credit bubble lighting a fire under asset prices (re: collectible values) again are, in my view, unlikely (after all, it's the unwinding of the last bubble that is going to be the proximate cause of the next recession). When you add to the mix that real incomes have fallen since 2000 while OA has skyrocketed, it doesn't seem like an ideal recipe for a repeat of history.

 

Call me crazy, but the last time we heard talk about entering a "New Era" and a "New Economy", it didn't work out too well.

[MADMAN-migration]

The essence of the argument isn't about a repeat & sustaining of the rise in OA that has occured to date. The issue is more narrowly focused on a willingness of the global market to embrace 'pop culture' at the upper echelon of the market. Again, I could care less about a McFarlane ASM page [just to use an example] as indicative of the future of OA. As such an item is not 'THE BEST'.

 

There is NO DOUBT we are entering an age of global growth. This phenomena will be the basis of continued price increases in THE BEST of OA. A slowing U.S. economy is irrelevant to the issue, as America is not the engine of the global economy anymore.

 

http://www.hakes.com/item.asp?AuctionItemID=33481 <----------- Items which represent the ZEITGEIST of history will be highly valued in the future. This imho has always been what 'THE BEST' is about.........NOT NOSTALGIA. This fact, is not understood by most American collector's.

[clemso]

Well If you have an abundance of Pounds/Euros in the first place and your looking to buy in, then yeah its all good, but I've done alot of selling of late and I've got to tell you it sucks when I get my $-£ conversion. I think trade may be the way to go until the $ dollar gains a little strength.

 

If I was rich then i guess I would play the market a little bit, but you still have rich guys over there willing to put high $ behind TOP QUALITY items. Also art price inflation versus the fall of the Dollar may slow the Euro frenzy a little unless you are totally green in which case you will need to read the recent thread on Albatross. I guess if your Stateside then your more likely to hold onto your assets imho.

 

Clem...

[delekkerste]

The issue is more narrowly focused on a willingness of the global market to embrace 'pop culture' at the upper echelon of the market.

 

From a completely objective standpoint, why would foreigners suddenly decide that American comic book OA is the "upper echelon pop culture" to collect/invest? It's not like there aren't thousands of other American pop culture items/symbols out there. Frankly, I can understand why those Mickey Mouse dolls at Hake's would be more coveted by foreigners - they are self-contained and stand-alone (not just one out of a 22 page book with a multi-decade backstory & continuity to grasp), Disney characters have a longer history and are more widely loved and recognized the world over, there is no English language text that many foreigners cannot read, etc. How are foreigners who haven't grown up with this stuff even supposed to recognize what is "the best"? As we all know, it's not always, or even often, the most aesthetically pleasing OA that garners the highest prices...you have to know which artists, writers, characters, issues and storylines are important, and you only get that from having read the source material.

 

 

There is NO DOUBT we are entering an age of global growth. This phenomena will be the basis of continued price increases. A slowing U.S. economy is irrelevant to the issue, as America is not the engine of the global economy.

 

This is exactly the same argument some are trotting out to defend other asset prices out there, especially commodities, where it is the growth in emerging markets which is driving marginal demand growth. However, a contraction of the world's largest economy would slash the existing demand base, not to mention have ripple effects throughout the global economy since everybody is trading to everybody else. When you are talking about what is still primarily a U.S. collector base (after all, American comic book OA is not like oil, copper, gold or something else of universal and uniform importance and value), I think that holds even more true.

[MADMAN-migration]

Clem,

 

Where are you from again? Europe?

 

MMM

[MADMAN-migration]

The issue is more narrowly focused on a willingness of the global market to embrace 'pop culture' at the upper echelon of the market.

 

From a completely objective standpoint, why would foreigners suddenly decide that American comic book OA is the "upper echelon pop culture" to collect/invest? It's not like there aren't thousands of other American pop culture items/symbols out there. Frankly, I can understand why those Mickey Mouse dolls at Hake's would be more coveted by foreigners - they are self-contained and stand-alone (not just one out of a 22 page book with a multi-decade backstory & continuity to grasp), Disney characters have a longer history and are more widely loved and recognized the world over, there is no English language text that many foreigners cannot read, etc. How are foreigners who haven't grown up with this stuff even supposed to recognize what is "the best"? As we all know, it's not always, or even often, the most aesthetically pleasing OA that garners the highest prices...you have to know which artists, writers, characters, issues and storylines are important, and you only get that from having read the source material.

 

 

There is NO DOUBT we are entering an age of global growth. This phenomena will be the basis of continued price increases. A slowing U.S. economy is irrelevant to the issue, as America is not the engine of the global economy.

 

This is exactly the same argument some are trotting out to defend other asset prices out there, especially commodities, where it is the growth in emerging markets which is driving marginal demand growth. However, a contraction of the world's largest economy would slash the existing demand base, not to mention have ripple effects throughout the global economy since everybody is trading to everybody else. When you are talking about what is still primarily a U.S. collector base (after all, American comic book OA is not like oil, copper, gold or something else of universal and uniform importance and value), I think that holds even more true.

 

Del,

 

There aren't as many UNIVERSAL token-symbols of pop culture as you seem to think. I disagree with you that they are plentiful. 'My Little Pony' doesn't count. I see Super-Heroes at the fore-front of UNIVERSAL token symbols that explain how MAN has UNIQUALLY chosen to define himself. Its all about THE CHILDREN, Deli. A history of pop-culture is in some measure a history of child-hood. Until you accept the fact that child-hood is not infantile and frivoulus and something to be ashamed of,..you will never 'get' why 'Barbie', 'Dracula', 'Gi-Joe', Spider-man'...etc....are at their origins valuable artistic [collectable] artifacts that need to be TREASURED as defining MAN-KIND. Moreover, 20th Century America is ETERNAL in terms of being where the dharma was/[is] at that moment/ eternal. Why does the world [not just Europe] buy Old Master paintings? Because THATS where the dharma was/ is/ Eternal..

 

And I conceed that art isnt a homogenous commodity that will benefit like most other commodities - the consequence of global growth. I would rather see inflationary data behind the rally in some capacity to utilze the commodity bull-run as supporting a relevance to art appreciation. That said,....the jury is still technically out,...on exactly what the status of inflation is. It seems vogue this week to say 'inflation' isnt a threat. Wwe shall see. If this changes,...OA will benefit massively. And...a slowing USA isnt a worry for global demand...CAPITALISM is much too versatile.

 

MMM

[vodou]

Why does the world [not just Europe] buy Old Master paintings? Because THATS where the dharma was/ is/ Eternal..

 

MMM

 

Actually it's because they were really friggin' good painters. Perhaps a little musty for the 21st century, but still universally appreciated. Comic art ain't that.