Where's KrazyKat When You Really Need Him??

[westform]

Stephen; I don't know about that. I hear what you are saying but, while I am still 'bullish' for lack of a better term on the 'A' list material. This material has seen a huge increase in price. Huge! It also attracts those that wish to invest in the hobby not just collect it. It also is hard for more than a handful of folks at any given time to afford.

 

The B thru D, which I own my share, I think could hang pretty tough no matter what the prevailing economic conditions mostly because this is the stuff that real 'collectors' seek out. It falls off the radar of many wishing to invest, and so isn't dependent on those kind of whims. There are many examples but take Sal Buscema and his run on Captain America. Great stuff! Cheap! Yes, it's gone up over the last few years but it is still and will probably always remain affordable to most collectors.

 

As an aside and I have no intention of hijacking this thread, but, I feel discussions of fine art pricing just have no relevancy here. Apples to Toyotas in my opinion, not even in the fruit family. I know we all want our collections of comic art to be 'fine art', but as of this writing, I think the jury is way, way out on that. Just my opinion. Dan

 

While I agree a price of 28K for the Kirby piece would be strong, I think we are looking at a small piece of the overall market. There will always be buyers for "A" list material (Kirby FF, Ditko ASM, Bolland KJ, Miller DKR). The real question is the sustainability of prices for the B through D list material. I think we may start to see the house of cards fall apart for those pieces long before it touches any of the above material.

[westform]

Then again; truly 'A' material will always be coveted. So, that in and of itself lends credence to an arguement for firm and growing pricing. After all, those who can afford to hold such material can probably also afford to ask a price that nets them profit when they sell. I just can't see paying a couple of hundred thou for the Batman 11 and then selling it for $150k when you 'really need' the money. It could happen, but probably not.

 

I guess I feel strongly both ways.....

[spider9698]

Agree. I don't expect any "fire sales" from any of the BSDs of the OA world. Even if they got bored and decided to take their collecting interests into a new direction, they would want (and likely get) fair-market value for their items.

 

[dem1138]

I was contemplating this the other day. You'll know when the sh*t has hit the fan in the market when you go to conventions or dealer's websites and actually see, out in the open, their A+/A stuff.

 

The market has been hot for so long that many prime pieces are offered privately by other collectors or dealers among their networks and often OA is sold long before the "public" even knows that it was available.

 

So basically, if we start seeing dealer website updates with the "A" material or see it openly displayed at shows - or see the "A" material offered on the lists available to all...then we'll know that the market is stagnating or declining...

[westform]

David; that's an interesting thought...

 

...I was just thinking with all this run up in prices; where's the damn supply!! And, of course I mean the good stuff. I guess dealers, and those that have, still see legs in this market... or I'd be offered a great Kirby/Sinnott FF splash or cover right about now!... hint, hint.

 

 

[delekkerste]

False alarm! All is well! Nothing to see here folks!

 

Color me skeptical...I'm not buying into the dealer spin. It's never healthy when the good stuff is falling off and the speculative newer stuff is still climbing - even a comic book fan would know that after the early 1990s speculative craze. It's just a matter of time...the last fine art market downturn took about 6 years from top to bottom.

 

 

Freud, Koons, Prince Set Records at Christie's New York Auction

2007-11-14 01:21 (New York)

 

By Lindsay Pollock and Philip Boroff

 

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Lucian Freud, Jeff Koons, Richard

Prince and nine other artists broke auction records last night at

Christie's International in New York, easing concern that an 11-

year bull market in art may be ending.

 

U.S. bidders dominated the $325 million auction, the second-

largest ever for postwar and contemporary art. The total was in

the middle of Christie's estimated range and only five of the 67

lots failed to sell.

 

``It was a wonderful surprise,'' said Asher Edelman, a New

York dealer and one-time corporate raider. ``I was wrong. I had

expected a seriously difficult auction.''

 

Last week, Sotheby's, the world's second-largest auction

house, fell short of its low estimate at a sale of Impressionist

and modern works, contributing to a 35 percent drop in the

company's stock in two days. The Impressionist sale at Christie's,

the biggest art seller, was in the middle of its estimated range.

Sotheby's holds its contemporary auction this evening.

 

Christie's top lot last night was a sultry 1955 blue-and-

orange canvas by Mark Rothko, ``Untitled,'' which sold for $34.2

million, above the $30 million high estimate.

 

The rally began with a slew of offerings tailored to current

tastes for the big and the bright. Chinese paintings sold easily,

including Zhang Xiaogang's 1993 ``Bloodline Series: Mother With

Three Sons (The Family Portrait).'' The picture of the artist's

mother fetched a record $3.96 million, almost double the $2.2

million presale estimate.

 

Prince's Pulp Nurse

 

Richard Prince's drippy red ``Piney Woods Nurse'' (2002),

from his series of masked nurses ripped from the pages of pulp

fiction, sold for $6.1 million, almost triple the $2.2 million

high estimate. Prince's works have been selling all week and, not

coincidentally, he has a retrospective at the Guggenheim Museum.

 

Freud achieved a record for a 1992 painting of his daughter

entwined with her husband. Estimated to sell for up to $20 million,

it made $19.4 million. Lucian is a grandson of Sigmund Freud.

 

``It was the world's shortest recession,'' said New York

dealer Marc Glimcher of PaceWildenstein, after the sale. The mood

after the sale was one of relief, following last week's poor

showing at Sotheby's Impressionist sale.

 

``I'm stunned,'' dealer Barbara Gladstone said. ``Clearly

people wanted to buy.''

 

Pricey `Liz'

 

A few of the higher-priced lots struggled to reach their

presale predictions. A turquoise 1963 Andy Warhol portrait of

actress Elizabeth Taylor sold for $23.6 million, below its $25

million low estimate. ``Liz,'' sold by British actor Hugh Grant,

attracted lackluster bidding from just two contenders, including

Alberto Mugrabi, a dealer heavily invested in the artist.

 

Grant bought ``Liz'' for $3.6 million in 2001 at Sotheby's.

Christie's Brett Gorvy said before the sale that people may be

upset that a celebrity with little art-world experience seemed to

be headed for a huge profit.

 

``Everyone knew what it was bought for,'' dealer Iwan Wirth

said.

 

The auction's 10 Warhols raised $70.4 million, accounting for

about 22 percent of the tally. Jeweler Laurence Graff, perched in

the front row, bought several.

 

Jeff Koons's ``Diamond (Blue),'' a 7-foot-tall stainless-

steel sculpture resembling a faceted stone in a setting, sold for

$11.8 million. It was a record for the artist even though the

price didn't reach the $12 million-$20 million presale estimate.

 

Like the slim bidding for Warhol's ``Liz,'' the Koons

attracted just two suitors. Dealer Larry Gagosian, who sold the

piece earlier, was the winning bidder.

 

Polishing the `Diamond'

 

Koons's ``Diamond'' sat on the sidewalk outside Christie's

Rockefeller Center headquarters before the auction and received

frequent cleaning to remove traces of dirt, rain and bird

droppings. The massive piece was completed just last year and sold

at Gagosian's gallery for about $3.5 million, dealers said.

 

All auction prices include a buyer's premium, or commission,

of 25 percent of the hammer price up to $20,000, 20 percent of the

price from $20,000 to $500,000, and 12 percent above $500,000.

Christie's held the largest-ever auction of postwar and

contemporary art in May, totaling $384.7 million.

 

Last night's sale followed the U.S. stock market's biggest

one-day rally in almost two months, as the Dow Jones Industrial

Average surged 2.5 percent. Sotheby's stock gained 7.2 percent.

With 51 lots selling for more than $1 million, the influence of

Wall Street's multi-billion-dollar losses linked to subprime home

loans wasn't apparent.

 

``It doesn't look like a lot of these people were holding

subprime paper,'' dealer Perry Rubenstein said.

 

(Lindsay Pollock and Philip Boroff write on the art market

for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are their own.)

 

--With reporting by Katya Kazakina in New York. Editors: West

(adm).

[comix4fun]

I was contemplating this the other day. You'll know when the sh*t has hit the fan in the market when you go to conventions or dealer's websites and actually see, out in the open, their A+/A stuff.

 

The market has been hot for so long that many prime pieces are offered privately by other collectors or dealers among their networks and often OA is sold long before the "public" even knows that it was available.

 

So basically, if we start seeing dealer website updates with the "A" material or see it openly displayed at shows - or see the "A" material offered on the lists available to all...then we'll know that the market is stagnating or declining...

 

While I agree with that to a certain extent and when it comes to certain dealers, but in the last 14 months we have seen several A/A+ pieces come out of a few of dealers collections..for public sale.

 

I think your rationale applies to many dealers, but I think you have seen several part with some grail level pieces in the last year.

 

C

[dem1138]

I was contemplating this the other day. You'll know when the sh*t has hit the fan in the market when you go to conventions or dealer's websites and actually see, out in the open, their A+/A stuff.

 

The market has been hot for so long that many prime pieces are offered privately by other collectors or dealers among their networks and often OA is sold long before the "public" even knows that it was available.

 

So basically, if we start seeing dealer website updates with the "A" material or see it openly displayed at shows - or see the "A" material offered on the lists available to all...then we'll know that the market is stagnating or declining...

 

While I agree with that to a certain extent and when it comes to certain dealers, but in the last 14 months we have seen several A/A+ pieces come out of a few of dealers collections..for public sale.

 

I think your rationale applies to many dealers, but I think you have seen several part with some grail level pieces in the last year.

 

C

 

Chris - please site your examples as I don't know that I would agree with you and am interested in what A/A+ pieces that you are referring to...

 

[Sharkey]

``It doesn't look like a lot of these people were holding

subprime paper,'' dealer Perry Rubenstein said.

 

[comix4fun]

I was contemplating this the other day. You'll know when the sh*t has hit the fan in the market when you go to conventions or dealer's websites and actually see, out in the open, their A+/A stuff.

 

The market has been hot for so long that many prime pieces are offered privately by other collectors or dealers among their networks and often OA is sold long before the "public" even knows that it was available.

 

So basically, if we start seeing dealer website updates with the "A" material or see it openly displayed at shows - or see the "A" material offered on the lists available to all...then we'll know that the market is stagnating or declining...

 

While I agree with that to a certain extent and when it comes to certain dealers, but in the last 14 months we have seen several A/A+ pieces come out of a few of dealers collections..for public sale.

 

I think your rationale applies to many dealers, but I think you have seen several part with some grail level pieces in the last year.

 

C

 

Chris - please site your examples as I don't know that I would agree with you and am interested in what A/A+ pieces that you are referring to...

 

There was the FF #100 cover is the one that jumps to mind.

 

Nadia had a bunch of top shelf pieces up for sale at SDCC 2006.

 

I will go back to get you specific piece ID's...but there was more than one top level Adams cover. Off the top of my head there were a half dozen pieces at $50k or more that had been locked away for over 20-25 years.

 

C

[dem1138]

I hear what your saying Chris, but that list pales in comparison to some of the OA that traded hands behind the scenes - some by the owners of the same pieces you mention (ie - one piece may have been sold publicly, but several more were offered privately from the same owner).

 

A+/A pieces come out yearly - I meant if it was more common across the board...and Dan does make a valid point - where's the product?? When's the last time a decent Dark Knight page was up for sale? Where are all the Ditko Spidey pages if the market is commanding top dollar? Where's the rest of the Kirby art? Why is it still being sold a little at a time.

 

And Gene, those increases are certifiably crazy. Gagosian sells the Koons for 3.5MM one year and then buys it back a year later for over 11MM?!?

 

Hugh Grant buys a Warhol in 2001 for 3.5MM and then resells it in 2007 for 23.5MM - that is bananas!

[comix4fun]

I hear what your saying Chris, but that list pales in comparison to some of the OA that traded hands behind the scenes - some by the owners of the same pieces you mention (ie - one piece may have been sold publicly, but several more were offered privately from the same owner).

 

A+/A pieces come out yearly - I meant if it was more common across the board...and Dan does make a valid point - where's the product?? When's the last time a decent Dark Knight page was up for sale? Where are all the Ditko Spidey pages if the market is commanding top dollar? Where's the rest of the Kirby art? Why is it still being sold a little at a time.

 

 

I think it is still being sold a little at a time because the owners are pretty smart about how the art market works and there is nothing worse for prices than a glut. Unless they are desperate for the cash they can make far more money in the long haul selling a piece here and there and holding the rest in reserve.

 

Also the really top shelf pieces require little to no work to sell. Alot of times the owner's don't have to do anything but say "yes"....why would someone go through the trouble of listing pieces publically for sale or setting up a table at a convention if they have offers ready and waiting (as most stellar pieces tend to have)?

 

To put it another way, offering one or two Ditko Spidey pages and selling them privately instead of listing several at a time, and publically, makes each page seem more rare, the opportunity more enticing, and more fleeting.

 

I have had top shelf Kirby, Miller, and Ditko examples (that anyone would consider A+) that I have sold in the last 16 months and I did not have to go further than my email to move them immediately and for very satisfying prices. I don't think I had very much to gain by trying the public route. (yes I still have the Ditko Dr. Strange )

 

The better the piece the more liquid it is and thus the less likely it will make it to a "cattle call" public sale. And alot of times the sellers and the buyers appreciate the privacy. A buyer who is interested in Miller DK is not going to want to broadcast it that he just paid a record amount for a page, unless he really wants to pay more for the next page he tries to buy.

 

And many sellers are still in the market for pages by these same artists and don't benefit from announcing sales at high dollar figures unless they are never planning on acquiring additional pieces by the same artist.

 

C

 

 

[dem1138]

Chris - you have just illustrated my point - as long as you can sell the way that you have - that is still a sign of a healthy market - it's when those options that you mentioned are no longer as viable - that I believe that the market is in trouble.

[Nexus]

To put it another way, offering one or two Ditko Spidey pages and selling them privately instead of listing several at a time, and publically, makes each page seem more rare, the opportunity more enticing, and more fleeting.

 

This is exactly why the Mastro auction last year where the complete ASM #31 was auctioned off was such a great buying opportunity. You need look no further than the fact that a prominent dealer was able to flip all the pages he won for 2X just a few short months later.

 

I doubt we'll see an auction like that again. Ditko ASM pages will trickle out, a few a year, via Heritage, ComicLink, etc. That's where sellers are realizing greatest value. Will be interesting to see what happens if the Ditko ASM market (or other A material for that matter) ever does take a dip in value.

 

A buyer who is interested in Miller DK is not going to want to broadcast it that he just paid a record amount for a page, unless he really wants to pay more for the next page he tries to buy.

 

In the meantime, I don't see any relief for prime 80's stuff like DKR, KJ, WATCHMEN, V, etc. Talking with other collectors, some prime, prime pieces have moved behind the scenes the last few months for ever-increasing values. Even a V interior (not a cover, an interior) sold for five figures. This is over a year after the movie hype, which was supposed to have subsided demand. Keep an eye on WATCHMEN...as we get closer to the movie, the next public auction of an A page will go bananas.

[pinupcartoonguy]

 

Talking with other collectors, some prime, prime pieces have moved behind the scenes the last few months for ever-increasing values. Even a V interior (not a cover, an interior) sold for five figures. This is over a year after the movie hype, which was supposed to have subsided demand. Keep an eye on WATCHMEN...as we get closer to the movie, the next public auction of an A page will go bananas.

 

Are we talking actual cash money or trade?

[Nexus]

 

Talking with other collectors, some prime, prime pieces have moved behind the scenes the last few months for ever-increasing values. Even a V interior (not a cover, an interior) sold for five figures. This is over a year after the movie hype, which was supposed to have subsided demand. Keep an eye on WATCHMEN...as we get closer to the movie, the next public auction of an A page will go bananas.

 

Are we talking actual cash money or trade?

 

All cash for the V page. The seller also turned down a $9K all-cash offer for another V page as well.

[tth2]

A few of the higher-priced lots struggled to reach their

presale predictions. A turquoise 1963 Andy Warhol portrait of

actress Elizabeth Taylor sold for $23.6 million, below its $25

million low estimate. ``Liz,'' sold by British actor Hugh Grant,

attracted lackluster bidding from just two contenders, including

Alberto Mugrabi, a dealer heavily invested in the artist.

 

Grant bought ``Liz'' for $3.6 million in 2001 at Sotheby's.

I think this particular paragraph illustrates that sometimes the so-called disappointments are just the result of overblown expectations. Grant made a 555% profit in 6 years, but it was viewed as a disappointment because it failed to meet its $25 million low estimate. I should be so lucky to be so disappointed.

[delekkerste]

Actually, he made about 290% when you factor in the exchange rate depreciation versus the British pound and after removing Sotheby's cut from the equation (assuming he got the full $20 million rumored guarantee; not sure if they take a cut from that as well). Which may sound like an egregious sum, but is really only 25% compounded over 6 years.

 

I think the "well, looking how well he still made out" kind of arguments are very misleading, because very few people accumulate the bulk of their collections or portfolios at/near the bottom. Because they were skillful or fortunate enough to buy at an inexpensive point in time, these people usually only get more emboldened and end up buying more and more at richer and richer levels - you see it in comic books, stocks, everything - it's human nature. How many guys did you see make paper fortunes in the dot-com boom, only to pour their inflated gains and more into the market at/near the top and end up actually losing money overall when things turned sour?

 

No one is saying the market is crashing or has crashed, only that the writing is on the wall - I don't think we'll be looking back 5 years from now and think that late 2007 was a great time to have bought art. The goal is to be buying right before the 555% run-up, not right after.

[delekkerste]

And Gene, those increases are certifiably crazy. Gagosian sells the Koons for 3.5MM one year and then buys it back a year later for over 11MM?!?

 

Hugh Grant buys a Warhol in 2001 for 3.5MM and then resells it in 2007 for 23.5MM - that is bananas!

 

It's nuts, but I think it's important to realize that high prices are not necessarily indicative of a healthy market. I mean, by definition, prices are always the highest at the top! I'm sure everyone was pointing to the record sales in 1990 as evidence of the robust health of the fine art market, only to see the market do an abrupt about-face with values halving in 6 years even on the best-of-the-best, one-of-a-kind items, to borrow two comic OA cliches.

[comix4fun]

I think a good current take on the temperature of the OA market will be where the FF #57 page ends on Heritage this coming weekend. Pages from this title/era sold in the 22K range iat SD and this current page, I feel, is superior to the ones that sold (though one of the ones that sold was darn near close to as good!). The page on Heritage is already at around 18K with the next bid being 20K+. In a "crazy" market, this would be a 25K+ page. I'm curious to see where it falls. If the bid in now is the final bid, that's not a good sign to me. However, if it ends around 22K, I'd say the market is stabilizing - but if the page ends over 25K -- then I really don't know what to think...

 

At $31k including the juice with internet bidding still workin.....

 

C