Where's KrazyKat When You Really Need Him??

[dem1138]

Wow.

 

I'm glad I didn't convince myself to make a serious run at it...looks like I saved myself a lot of mental anguish.

 

So, as mentioned, I really don't know what to think now...

[tth2]

Actually, he made about 290% when you factor in the exchange rate depreciation versus the British pound

Gene, sometimes your glass half empty approach gets a bit silly.

 

Why would you immediately factor in exchange rate differentials just because he's English? Is Hugh Grant a publicly traded corporation that needs to report its foreign earnings in its domestic currency? Do you know for a fact that he immediately repatriated the money to the UK? Does he only have expenses in the UK, and not the US? If not, then the fact is he made a 555% profit in USD terms, less commissions.

[Showponysydnee]

Actually, Gene is correct if the original transaction was consumated in British Pounds.

The exchange rate is relevant when assessing the overall rate of (Hugh's) return for investment purposes.

When investing in Equity, Debt Intruments, Real Estate or anything in a foreign country with a different currency, the exchange rate of that currncy is a component of the equation when analyzing P&L and/or rates of return.

 

A Couple of questions to my fellow board members:

 

How many of you have actually sold Fine Art to buy Original Comic Art?

 

http://qurls.com?i=3565

 

http://qurls.com?i=3566

 

As Featured in the present Heritage Signature Auction:

 

How high does the Mr. Natural #1 Cover (R. Crumb) Trade?

(presently at $84,313.23 w/buyer's premium)

 

 

 

[tth2]

Actually, Gene is correct if the original transaction was consumated in British Pounds.

I agree, but I don't think we should assume the original deal was done in pounds, or required Hugh to exchange pounds for dollars, just because he's English. I would guess he's paid in USD for most of his bigger movie contracts, since they tend to be American films.

[Bronty]

Good point. He probably has income and expenses (and bank accounts) in both currencies. Its a guessing game as to what his real return is but any way you slice it he did well.

[delekkerste]

You'd have to be one hell of a Pollyanna to think that a similar change in psychology isn't going to spill over into other markets for art and collectibles...

 

 

Contemporary Art Market Confidence Slumps 40%, Survey Shows

2008-01-24 23:51 (New York)

 

 

By Scott Reyburn

 

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence in the contemporary art

market has dropped 40 percent over the past six months, according

to a survey by ArtTactic, a London-based research company.

 

The biannual survey, based on the responses of 155 buyers of

contemporary art, mostly international private collectors, said

the decline in confidence followed the credit crisis in the last

quarter of 2007.

 

The full survey, published on Jan. 23, follows a snap poll in

August that showed contemporary art buyers were increasingly

worried about the prospects for the economy, said ArtTactic.

 

``It is clear that the respondents no longer think that the

art market can be detached from economic realities,'' ArtTactic

said in the survey. ``Confidence in the primary market is down

only by 10 percent, and is holding up significantly better than

the auction market.''

 

The ArtTactic Market Confidence Indicator was first published

in November 2005. According to ArtTactic's survey's methodology

statement, data is collected and made available every six months.

 

Respondents are asked six constant questions on their

perceptions of present and future conditions in the general

economy and the contemporary art market. Answers are in the form

of the response options ``positive,'' ``negative,'' and

``neutral.''

 

The overall November 2007 Art Market Confidence Indicator,

computed from the totality of the received data, fell by 40

percent since the last reading in May 2007, said ArtTactic.

 

`Economic Realities'

 

The primary market refers to art offered for the first time

in galleries and by artists in their studios. Prices are often

lower than when the same works reach the secondary market of

auctions and resales by dealers and collectors.

 

``There are so many collectors in the primary market now and

they want to carry on buying,'' especially works by younger

artists that have relatively low prices, said the London-based

contemporary art dealer Thomas Dane.

 

ArtTactic's findings come less than two weeks before

Christie's International, Sotheby's and Phillips de Pury hold

Impressionist, modern and contemporary art sales in London that

have a record overall low estimate of 429 million pounds ($838

million), according to figures released on Jan. 22 by the auction

houses.

 

Auction Records

 

Last July, before the global credit crunch triggered by the

U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, record prices for contemporary

artists such as Damien Hirst, Piero Manzoni, Ilya Kabakov and Yue

Minjun pushed the total for these auctions in London to an

unprecedented 462.5 million pounds, including fees, compared with

a low estimate of 322 million pounds.

 

Since then, Wall Street banks have declared more than $100

billion of writedowns. On Jan. 21, two days before ArtTactic's

survey was published, London's FTSE 100 stocks index fell 5.5

percent, the biggest drop since Sept. 11, 2001.

 

Rising concern that a housing slump will damp consumer

spending in the U.S., causing a recession, has dragged down stock

markets around the world this year. London's FTSE 100 index fell

as much as 17 percent this year before recovering part of the

decline.

 

``We'll have to see how the stock-market volatility plays

out before the sales,'' said James Roundell, Impressionist and

modern art specialist at London dealers Simon C. Dickinson Ltd.

``If anything, it should have more effect on the contemporary

auctions. The Impressionist and modern market is much more

static.''

 

Roundell said Russian and Eastern European buyers are

increasingly important at London's Impressionist and modern sales.

 

``They've been behind quite a few of the stand-out prices in

recent years,'' he said. Sotheby's said clients from the former

Soviet Union bought 9 percent of the lots at its evening sale of

Impressionist and modern art in London a year ago.

 

Soaring Estimates

 

The 89 million pound and 82 million pound low estimates for

Christie's and Sotheby's respective February evening

Impressionist and modern art auctions are the highest ever seen in

London.

 

In July, Christie's and Sotheby's evening contemporary

auctions carried low estimates of 54.5 million pounds and 40.5

million pounds, respectively. Both houses' February sales in

London are expected to fetch at least 72 million pounds.

 

Christie's Feb. 6 contemporary auction includes a Francis

Bacon triptych with a low estimate of 25 million pounds, a record

for a work of art offered at auction in London. Three weeks later,

Sotheby's will offer a single-panel painting by Bacon with a

guarantee of around 18 million pounds, also a record for London.

At the contemporary art auctions in July in London and in

November in New York, more than 80 percent of lots typically

found buyers.

 

``I'd expect the general mood of buying everything and

anything to come to an end,'' said art dealer Dane.

 

Mood Change

 

According to the ArtTactic November 2007 survey, there has

been a negative mood change toward some of the less established

artists that saw a rapid and significant increase in prices during

2006 and 2007. Marlene Dumas, Neo Rauch, Franz Ackerman, Cecily

Brown and Peter Doig were among the artists that had seen

a ``significant decrease in confidence'' from buyers.

 

ArtTactic said auction performance is a major influence on

the market's confidence in a particular artist.

 

``The auctions will be the test of what is happening,'' said

Thomas Dane. ``People are definitely putting off certain decisions

until after the sales.''

 

(Scott Reyburn writes about the art market for Bloomberg

News. Any opinions expressed are his own.)

 

--Editors: Adam Majendie, Farah Nayeri.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Scott Reyburn in London at sreyburn@hotmail.com.

 

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Jim Ruane at +322-285-4309 or

jruane1@bloomberg.net.

[dem1138]

Gene -

 

I don't think anyone would dispute your claims in a general manner, but I would still contend that A+ pieces will still command top dollar. As the Wacky Packages background was provided in another thread, even during the recession of 2001/2002, record prices were being paid for top Wacky Packages art.

 

Additionally, the litmus test is coming soon that will give us all an indicator as February is poised to be an unbelievable month for comic books and comic art. Heritage, ComicConnect, and Comiclink are offering some absolutely unbelievable product in the coming weeks and many are complaining that there's too much "must have" stuff coming at them in too short of a time period.

 

Therefore it will be very interesting to see if there are record prices realized or not.

 

My gut is that the top, A+ stuff, like the Mile High Adventure issues, the 9.0 AF #15, the 8.0 Cap #1, perhaps that Hulk #6 page, and maybe one of those Ditko Spidey pages may go for top dollar, but the rest may sell for average prices.

 

However, there is no doubt that there will be some absolute steals in these auctions for savvy buyers with some long term cash to spend.

[delekkerste]

I don't think anyone would dispute your claims in a general manner, but I would still contend that A+ pieces will still command top dollar. As the Wacky Packages background was provided in another thread, even during the recession of 2001/2002, record prices were being paid for top Wacky Packages art.

 

I think it would be very dangerous to assume that the next downturn will look anything like the 2000-2002 period. There has been a tremendous repricing of art & collectibles since then (in some cases by hundreds of percent), even as median real incomes have stagnated. The last downturn saw tangible asset values soar as the economy was flush with liquidity from negative real interest rates and easy credit. That is not the situation we have today, where liquidity is being drained (the adjusted monetary base has been shrinking for the past year), home values are falling, credit is tight, we have positive real interest rates (for the moment) and there is a debt-deflation spiral forming. Also, the number of players in the WP market in 2001-2 could be counted on two hands, and it's probably down to 1 hand now from what that article implies - it's a very niche market and not necessarily indicative of anything.

 

I do believe A+/high end collectibles will hold up better, but to say that they are immune from declines at current price levels I think is a bit optimistic - you need look no further back than the 1990-96 bear market in fine art to see examples of stunning, one-of-a-kind, A+ pieces absolutely plummeting in value, in many cases by more than half. Collectors always forget that people having money is not a sufficient condition to keep prices up as psychology always changes in a downturn. That said, A+ collectibles will be the last to decline; I know that I, personally, am dealing with the new market realities I see coming by cutting out 2nd & 3rd tier purchases and holding out for only 1st tier pieces.

 

I wouldn't read too much into the Feb. 2008 auction sales as a barometer either...any weakness is not going to manifest itself overnight, especially not at the high end. I think the February 2009 auction sales will be much more telling.

[dem1138]

It would be foolish to assume immunity, I agree.

 

As always, Gene, I appreciate and value your perspective and always look forward to reading your take on things.

 

It certainly does look like we're looking at a tough road ahead...

[bluechip]

I don't think anyone would dispute your claims in a general manner, but I would still contend that A+ pieces will still command top dollar. As the Wacky Packages background was provided in another thread, even during the recession of 2001/2002, record prices were being paid for top Wacky Packages art.

 

I think it would be very dangerous to assume that the next downturn will look anything like the 2000-2002 period. There has been a tremendous repricing of art & collectibles since then (in some cases by hundreds of percent), even as median real incomes have stagnated. The last downturn saw tangible asset values soar as the economy was flush with liquidity from negative real interest rates and easy credit. That is not the situation we have today, where liquidity is being drained (the adjusted monetary base has been shrinking for the past year), home values are falling, credit is tight, we have positive real interest rates (for the moment) and there is a debt-deflation spiral forming. Also, the number of players in the WP market in 2001-2 could be counted on two hands, and it's probably down to 1 hand now from what that article implies - it's a very niche market and not necessarily indicative of anything.

 

I do believe A+/high end collectibles will hold up better, but to say that they are immune from declines at current price levels I think is a bit optimistic - you need look no further back than the 1990-96 bear market in fine art to see examples of stunning, one-of-a-kind, A+ pieces absolutely plummeting in value, in many cases by more than half. Collectors always forget that people having money is not a sufficient condition to keep prices up as psychology always changes in a downturn. That said, A+ collectibles will be the last to decline; I know that I, personally, am dealing with the new market realities I see coming by cutting out 2nd & 3rd tier purchases and holding out for only 1st tier pieces.

 

I wouldn't read too much into the Feb. 2008 auction sales as a barometer either...any weakness is not going to manifest itself overnight, especially not at the high end. I think the February 2009 auction sales will be much more telling.

 

 

Well put.

 

The question then becomes what is truly an A+ piece (in any area). And those would tend to be the pieces with the broadest awareness and most easily explained. If describing its value (or aesthetic) takes a lot of time and trouble to explain, then the more likely its value is artificially created, and the more like it is to shed value faster.

 

 

[tth2]

You'd have to be one hell of a Pollyanna to think that a similar change in psychology isn't going to spill over into other markets for art and collectibles...

And yet, in the comic and comic OA fields, we have yet to see anything approaching the weakness of the last big art auctions.