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The Official The Walking Dead Discussion Thread
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Started by MutantKeys,

40,452 posts in this topic

maloney414

maloney414

Posted
Posted
And how many are in your sample size to extrapolate that the Black is more rare?

 

You are talented my friend as most can't tell a 9.4-9.8 by a picture like that. Maybe I'll buy it so we can test your grading skills :baiting:

 

Ok, I'll take the bait...

 

Well, to your first point the Central Limit Theorem that refers to the law of large numbers sample size mathematically kicks in at 30. Which to be fair is pretty small. (Yes, I was a math major in College.) I know my sample would easily be over 100, maybe even 200.

 

For a while when I was trying to buy my black version I had to wait over a month before one came up on eBay. I even posted here in the Want to Buy thread with no success. At that time there were routinely at least 10 to 15 WD #1 (white) for sale on eBay as it was a heavily traded book.

 

I just did a quick snapshot of eBay. I typed in Walking Dead into the search and got 5 pages of WD stuff. There were 6 WD white and Zero black. I know that doesn't prove anything, but if you need convincing you should try that yourself once a week and just compare. Let me know by PM if you EVER see more black for sale than white and I'll send you something WD related for your discovery.

 

To the second point, grading is always subjective and that's my opinion. Go for it! I'd love to see if I'm right. Here is his picture and the blunt I'm refering to. (shrug)

 

 

 

 

 

Although I'm not a math major I have taken a fair amount of stats courses and am just currently working on my sampling assignment for Psychology due tomorrow. I do not see Ebay as a random sampling. Even if I were to assume Ebay to be a random sampling I do not see the large discrepancy discussed here. Currently the snapshot favours the White Label but over the last 5 months that has not been the case. Considering the number that I have purchased my experience has been 50/50. There is also the fact that the Black Label has been advertised as the rare version on Ebay for atleast a year.

 

Can I show you my last CGC submission to claim my WD prize? It is the vast majority of WD #1's sold on Ebay between Nov 1 2009 and Feb 15th 2010. I only let 3 slip by with 2 being black label.

 

Not so fast. I think you misunderstood my challenge.

 

On any given day, if you see more copies of the black version for sale than the white on eBay send me a PM. That’s it.

 

(Of course from your post, I have to say be fair. If you’ve bought that many copies you’re a dealer. Don’t post a bunch of your black copies on eBay at the same time just to win a wager. lol!)

 

I don’t know what your CGC submission would prove since CGC doesn’t distinguish between the two.

 

I do think eBay over a long period of time is as close to a random sample as we can get. They sell a ton of books from people across the country and abroad. Considering the LCS in any particular area probably got the same type of copies, any store would certainly be a biased sample.

 

And it’s certainly a more random sample than someone’s personal collection.

 

 

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maloney414

maloney414

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I know my post count isn’t that high, but I’ve been frequenting these boards for awhile. Especially this thread in particular. This issue of the black vs. white seems to keep popping up.

 

This is my timeline that’s lead to my opinion that the black version is rarer for anyone who cares:

 

1. I bought WD #1 raw when the book was in the early 20’s.

 

2. Then I learned there were 2 versions of WD #1. It was here on the boards, probably from Steve. (Most of you know him as Evil Ash.)

 

3. The information presented was that the white version was rarer. When I check my copy I felt pretty good because that’s the one I had. :applause:

 

4. Since then, I’ve seen 2 sets of numbers floating around about the print run. One was that there were 10,000 copies printed with about 3,000 white and 7,000 black. The other rumor was 7,000 total. I still don’t know for sure which is correct.

 

5. So I was happy with my rare white #1 and focused on collecting the remaining issues. It took me a while to complete my collection because I was on a tight budget.

 

6. But while I was collecting the others I casually watched WD #1 prices. That’s when I started to question the white was rarer.

 

7. After I finished my run, it bugged me that I didn’t have the black version. I don’t know why because I usually don’t collect variants. Maybe, it’s because WD is my favorite book and I enjoyed collecting the others.

 

8. So I decided to buy it. I waited and waited and waited and there wasn’t a single copy on eBay for weeks. However, the white ones were in abundance.

 

9. I posted in the “Want to Buy” thread here and people thought I was asking for the #50 cover swipe Special #1. I couldn’t even find a picture using Google to show what I was talking about. Thankfully, Steve (Evil Ash) read the thread and posted his awesome framed version with the original art. (I’m still jealous of that by the way Steve.) Needless to say people posted some shocked posts.

 

10. Then I found one and bought it. I then posted pictures of it there and in this thread.

 

11. AFTERWARDS, people started selling them on eBay with the RARE tag added to their auctions. Yes, I think a lot of dealers frequent these boards. Before then, nobody was even noting the difference and they certainly weren’t selling for different prices. The same thing happened with the preview books after they were discussed here. After people talked about them here, they started selling on eBay.

 

12. Whenever, I check nowadays there are always more white versions for sale than black.

 

Well, there you go. This is just one guys observations, take what you want from it. Maybe a lot of people are on step 3! lol!

 

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Not so fast. I think you misunderstood my challenge.

 

On any given day, if you see more copies of the black version for sale than the white on eBay send me a PM. That’s it.

 

(Of course from your post, I have to say be fair. If you’ve bought that many copies you’re a dealer. Don’t post a bunch of your black copies on eBay at the same time just to win a wager. lol!)

 

No worries I'm generally interested in the real answer here.

 

I don’t know what your CGC submission would prove since CGC doesn’t distinguish between the two.

 

I take a picture of submissions when I receive them back. The grades would correspond to the submission and the Blck vs White could be seen in the pic. The CGC #'s could likely be tracked to the CGC Inv #. Not that we need to go this far :screwy:

 

I do think eBay over a long period of time is as close to a random sample as we can get. They sell a ton of books from people across the country and abroad. Considering the LCS in any particular area probably got the same type of copies, any store would certainly be a biased sample.

 

And it’s certainly a more random sample than someone’s personal collection.

 

 

Both being math people I think this debate would take way too long ;)

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maloney414

maloney414

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Yeah, math guys can debate trival things for hours. I agree on that.

 

As far as Steve, between the original artwork, Tony Moore sketches, sketches on books, serbian #1, etc... it's hard to keep up with what he's got.

 

I'm just happy when he shares pictures here. (thumbs u

 

Hey Steve, it's been awhile I'm sure people would like to see that frame I'm talking about. :popcorn:

 

 

 

 

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maloney414

maloney414

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They are legit. In fact, his #10 is the variant and had a smaller print run than 500.

 

They are something else Steve (Evil Ash) brought to our attention awhile back. He even sold some here to lots of other boardies. If memory serves me right he was charging about $180 back them, but I don't remember.

 

I searched the internet and made a friend in Serbia to get mine. They are pretty rare.

 

 

 

 

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