Better Investment? AF #15 or Marvel Entertainment (MVL)

[bhhooks22]

I know what he would do . He would look for the bargain and/ or something that's undervalued . How would he determine this ? With these , prob. neither b/c both have had such a huge run up in the past several years. But , if he must , he would take the more conservative , and maybe crazy , but the AF #15 would be more conservative , mainly due to the fact that the run up on Marvell's stock is in large part due to the anticipation , and really "expectation" that these movies will all do pretty well.

Well , you have a stinker or two , what's that gonna do to the stock ?

What could neg. effect the AF #15 ?? ...I don't see much .........

 

How much anticipation is already built into the stock price? 2 blockbusters over the next two years? Or, a bet on Ant Man making it big?

 

Yes, there has been a run-up in the stock. But, the upside potential, over 10 years, looks better than the mid-grade AF 15.

 

Nope ! ..That's all already been built into the stock price !

The last time to buy Marvel stock as a serious speculator was before Iron Man.

 

[TylerH]

Well, Im sure IRON MAN 2 will be HUGE -

 

Itll have the same effect as Xmen, Pirates of Caribbean, Spiderman -

 

First is good, then the hype for the second makes it HUGE, then the third will probably be a disappointment - trilogy complete...

 

 

[Wally's Comics]

Why would someone buy Marvel stock now? The value is already buoyed by high movie revenues, and I don't think any of the future ones will out-gross Iron Man.

 

But if Marvel screws up and releases a stinker, their stock could take a tumble.

 

That's what I am thinking JC, the stock price now is overblown.

If anyone was going to buy into this, they should of gotten on this

years ago.

 

Anyway it is reaaaaallly hard to predict what is going to make it big

especially back in 2001 - When Sept. 11 hit, I'm sure people we wondering

if anything could survive the chaotic market that would follow. That and the fact that

a new presidential regime was settling in made 2001 a difficult year to invest.

 

Not even taking into account that Marvel was just coming off some dry years

when everyone was doing so well. My perception was that the late 90's market was

booming for just about everyone - except comics...

 

 

 

 

 

[TylerH]

I dont think its overblown.. I mean look at Apple - Apple stock is 100% anticipation based..

 

New Ipod maybe? Goes up..

New Iphone maybe? Goes up

New ____ maybe? Goes up

 

And even though it isnt at its high right now, its at almost triple a year ago prices..

 

Same with Marvel -

 

People will assume an upward trend until they release maybe 2 or 3 consecutive "failures"

 

Not to mention the fact that, with DVD and international, almost ALL movies these days turn a profit-

They may not be blockbusters, but they do PROFIT...

 

Look at Indy 4 - Not a blockbuster like spiderman 2 or Pirates 2, but it still profited over 300 million dollars! Thats a good chunk, that that is what is reflected in the stock price in the end of the day.

[Wally's Comics]

I dont think its overblown.. I mean look at Apple - Apple stock is 100% anticipation based..

 

New Ipod maybe? Goes up..

New Iphone maybe? Goes up

New ____ maybe? Goes up

 

And even though it isnt at its high right now, its at almost triple a year ago prices..

 

Same with Marvel -

 

People will assume an upward trend until they release maybe 2 or 3 consecutive "failures"

 

Not to mention the fact that, with DVD and international, almost ALL movies these days turn a profit-

They may not be blockbusters, but they do PROFIT...

 

Look at Indy 4 - Not a blockbuster like spiderman 2 or Pirates 2, but it still profited over 300 million dollars! Thats a good chunk, that that is what is reflected in the stock price in the end of the day.

 

well, then put all yer money into it if you think that...

 

you could make some money on this stock, I just don't see that much -

 

I am just saying that you'll never see a 33 to 1 again on this stock.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dollarbill]

I'd take any AF15 over MVL

[Miraclo]

The stock market really should not be used for speculation by the average investor, but for investing long term. Having said that, MVL is not probably the wisest investment long term.

[Wayne-Tec]

I'll be honest and say that I am far from a stock expert. But from what I know, Marvel stock as seen alot of growth over the past decade. This is a far cry from the position they were in in the early 1990's. The movies have a great deal to do with it as well i would imagine the DVD's and video games must also help. The things with marvel is, how much higher can it go? No Spidey films for a while anyway, there is Wolverine but not as many true blockbusters that are certain (meaning not extended in the works projects) to be coming out in the next few years, at least not compared to the Spidey and X-Men franchises.

 

AF #15 on the other hand has seen steady growth and an amazing amount of growth since comic collecting has come into the lime-light. The 1st appearence of Spiderman will always be in high demand and it has all of the qualities that you need in a good investment. Classic book, key importance, legendary cover, and enough copies on the markey to keep it in the public eye and drive the prices up. My thoughts are however, how much more can it go up? In the 2002 price guide it was worth $40,000 in the then NM grade, in 2008 it is worth $50,000 in the NM- grade. Now of course 10k is a great jump for only 7 years, and we all know that NM- or higher will always go above guide, especially slabbed copies. But other golden age books have seen NM prices almost double, look at All-Star #3 or Tec. #38 for instance. I'm not going to get into the whole GA vs SA debate however i do feel that AF #15 is a solid investment. It saw more Overstreet growth from 07 to 08 then we've seen in recent years. But regardless of what the guide says, heck...there could be no guide at all and there will always be Spidey fans willing to donate a kidney to get that book. When i got my copy back in 2003, i was told that is one book i will NEVER be stuck with and its true.

 

Bottom line...stock market can be too risky, you never know and you might make out huge but lets face it, holding an AF #15 is much more fun then faceless stocks but even fun aside, its guaranteed to never go down, lose value or interest. To me, its the more stable investment.

[Miraclo]

I am not really a huge fan of "investing" with comics anway.

 

My rule is, I never buy a book that I wouldn't mind taking a bath on if I had to sell it. That way, it insures I truly love all the books I purchase. I buy the books for the love of the book itself, not to flip it in 5 or 10 years.

[bhhooks22]

Well , everyone can speculate whether Marvell has room to rise until their blue in the face . A prudent stock investor would look at the PE ratio (price per earnings ) , and go from there . This can at a min. give you a good idea of the value range .

I don't think anyone here has posted this calculation ?

[lou_fine]

I should have checked earlier, but, if you had bought MVL in December 2000, roughly, a $10,000 investment would now be worth $330,000

 

From about $1 then to $33 today.

 

Not sure how you would have done with AF 15, but, DAMN. I missed out.

 

Check the chart...

 

:o

 

Actually, it was even better than that in late 2001. I came close to pulling the trigger at $0.50 or $0.75 per share when it looked certain that they would not go under - instead, I bought more comics.

 

Actually, it's always easy to invest when you are looking through the rear view mirror.

 

How about if you took it back another 10 years to the early 90's. Any bets your return would have gone exactly the opposite way with Marvel stock plummeting down to almost nothing.

[innocuous]

btw - the thread was meant for fun discussion; my own portfolio (stock market) is rather drab...index funds with automatic investing every two weeks. Over time, I make whatever the market makes.

[WiseGuyX]

Personaly, I've been more into Commodities or Tangible investments this past 8 or so years than anything else. I cashed in a lot of stock that was doing fine in order to invest in precious metals and Oil/Gas rights. So if I had to speculate on which would be a better investment, I would have to go with an AF15 hands down. Just an FYI: I bought my AF15 for my own personaly collection. If I was looking for an investment book, I would have bought something higher than a .5

 

 

[TylerH]

Im not saying its going to be a forever 33:1 rise again..

But I do see the company continuing to be profitable for several years to come..

and with apple, I DID put a lot of my money into it.. and its still there

 

 

[WiseGuyX]

Oh ya, I think there is still some room left in MVL to make some money but we're talking a 10 year invetsment. So although I can see it as a short term investment, I can't see holding onto it for a long term investment.

[TylerH]

I guess the best basic math in this is:

 

Ideally, if you are well invested and diversified, your money will (ideally) grow at near 8% per year.

 

Meaning, every 8 years, it will have doubled.

 

Now, with todays prices, do you see an AF15 doubling in value over the next 8 years??

 

Could be! I mean, I really dont know the comics trend! Im sure there are plenty of comic values that have beaten the market many many times!

 

 

Sorry if I am taking this analogy too far, Personal finance is sort of a hobby..

 

 

[Aman619]

Id say right now Marvel will more likely go down before it goes up. So long term aside, Id wait and try to buy it when it slumps back into the 20s, as it has before, rather than now at 35 and hope for a higher high.

 

as for AF15, that's a tough one too. HG and mid HG (7.0 and up) are coming off huge gains of late. So Id think a stall is in the cards rather than more doubling of prices. Long term, its a good bet. I have no idea how good, but Im pretty convinced prices will continue higher.

 

but, who knows, huh?

[bronze_rules]

From the perspective of someone who looks at these types of scenarios quite a bit, I would respond with the following.

 

AF 15 has steadily grown over the years along with inflation. As an asset you should expect it to roughly continue that pace.

 

Stocks are very volatile (wild swings) and you have a much greater chance of having it abruptly swing wildly below present value, than say, the asset AF 15 (can show this mathematically, but just take my word for it).

 

Slow and steady wins the race.

 

If inflation continues, AF 15 should continue rising. If we somehow hit deflation, that would hurt your tangible investment, but it would also hurt the stock (and likely much worse) IMO.

 

Of course you could have a flood or something, in which case the stock would certainly be worth more. Or if you want to compare it to a less risky investment, buy an index (more diversified = less volatile).

[FFB]

Id say right now Marvel will more likely go down before it goes up. So long term aside, Id wait and try to buy it when it slumps back into the 20s, as it has before, rather than now at 35 and hope for a higher high.

 

as for AF15, that's a tough one too. HG and mid HG (7.0 and up) are coming off huge gains of late. So Id think a stall is in the cards rather than more doubling of prices. Long term, its a good bet. I have no idea how good, but Im pretty convinced prices will continue higher.

 

but, who knows, huh?

 

It may go down in the near term, but a lot depends on the 2009 guidance. If the 2009 guidance winds up being higher than expected, I think that at that point, people will have missed a relatively cheap buy-in opportunity. I have had a nice position in MVL, but I bought more on Tuesday after the stock plummeted following the earnings call. I think the market way overreacted to what should not have been a surprise (and what were some really good numbers for the quarter), and the recovery the stock has made in the past couple of days shows that others are making the same bet.

 

Coincidentally, I also bought some Ford stock on Monday. This has been a fun week. The company is a mess, but it was getting so cheap ($4.7992/share - about half of what it was less than a year ago) that it wasn't a very expensive "bet" to make, and I have a gut feeling that management will finally get the message and slowly turn it around. And if I'm wrong, it didn't cost me that much.

[bhhooks22]

Id say right now Marvel will more likely go down before it goes up. So long term aside, Id wait and try to buy it when it slumps back into the 20s, as it has before, rather than now at 35 and hope for a higher high.

 

as for AF15, that's a tough one too. HG and mid HG (7.0 and up) are coming off huge gains of late. So Id think a stall is in the cards rather than more doubling of prices. Long term, its a good bet. I have no idea how good, but Im pretty convinced prices will continue higher.

 

but, who knows, huh?

 

It may go down in the near term, but a lot depends on the 2009 guidance. If the 2009 guidance winds up being higher than expected, I think that at that point, people will have missed a relatively cheap buy-in opportunity. I have had a nice position in MVL, but I bought more on Tuesday after the stock plummeted following the earnings call. I think the market way overreacted to what should not have been a surprise (and what were some really good numbers for the quarter), and the recovery the stock has made in the past couple of days shows that others are making the same bet.

 

Coincidentally, I also bought some Ford stock on Monday. This has been a fun week. The company is a mess, but it was getting so cheap ($4.7992/share - about half of what it was less than a year ago) that it wasn't a very expensive "bet" to make, and I have a gut feeling that management will finally get the message and slowly turn it around. And if I'm wrong, it didn't cost me that much.

 

Sounds like pretty wise choices you made ! ............. (thumbs u