If a crash does come....what will YOU do?

[joe_collector]

Thanks for the Beanie tale Bonds, as it brings back memories.

 

I've never been heavy into sportscards (other than what I bought as a kid), but some of my family members are. Most kept to the old adage of "buy low, and buy vintage", but a few jumped into the new card market.

 

It was like someone found out how to print money, and people were ripping brand new packs, sending them to PSA, and then tossing them on EBay for an insane profit. I used to track some stuff for them, and then one day, it seemed as if the music just stopped, people halted their bidding, and the final session of musical chairs began.

 

Talk about a bloodbath, and there was no predicting exactly what day/week/month it would happen. There were few clues, there was no long-term slow decrease in prices, and it was like the entire market had an "I'm paying hundreds of $$$ for little pieces of cardboard??" epiphany.

 

The worst part is that the crashes also take vintage/rare books/cards/coins/beanies with them, and it seems that nothing is immune, even the ones that are rare and highly collectible.

[SilverAgeGuy]

I would say, that how you will react to a crash is dependant on why you are in this hobby:

 

The Pure Collector

If you are a collector because you honestly love the books, then you will keep doing what you are doing if a crash comes... only the prices will change, and this won't be a bad thing to you.

 

The Pure Investor

If you are an unwise investor, you will cash out at a big loss and be very unhappy. If you are a smarter investor, you will wait for the bottom and buy, doing some "dollar cost averaging" and you will probably come out OK. If you are a really smart investor, you likely aren't buying comics right now (for the long term).

 

The Collector/Investor

If a crash comes you are going to be hurting, and you will be torn between being a collector and being an investor. Probably your best choice is to wait for the bottom and buy.

 

After saying all that, I would categorize myself as 90% collector, 10% investor. Meaning, I will stick to the collector mentality and just keep buying, but the little investor in me will feel a twinge if prices drop. I won't let it influence my buying/selling decisions though, because comics are not where I put my investment money, just my fun money.

[minutekev@50]

This is so cool....I just started my first Market Crash thread!

I am no longer a Market Crash Virgin.....

[Zonker]

Everybody, please participate in this poll...

[joe_collector]

Presumably issues like PQ, QP, page colour etc: etc: don't hit the equation. They must be a lot easier to grade (?) so the craziness at the high levels is hard to justify.

 

Have you seen sportscard grading specifications? They have microscopic centering, gloss, wear and color requirements, and make CGC and OS grading seem lax by comparison.

 

The only difference is that card grading had a head-start on comics, and nothing more or less. Time always tells the tale...

[fantastic_four]

You know it happened, and hopefully saw that zany Coin Index graph that Gene posted earlier. They both dropped like a rock once the fad status wore off, as does anything else that spikes in value over the short term.

 

Scottish was asking about the trend following the introduction of certification, which for coins was in the mid-1980s. If I remember correctly, Gene's graph showed a spike from the mid-1990s when investment firms started recommending that investors put their money into coins.

 

However, that coin guy who wandered over here a few months ago said that there was a similar--but probably MUCH less dramatic--spike that went back down in the mid-1980s with the introduction of certification, but that most of the spike related to the new coin market, and that the market for old, rare coins never experienced a significant nor permanent reduction in value. This sounds exactly like the difference in the GA/SA and the BA/Modern comic market as I've seen it go over the last three years--there has been no noticable crash in the rare stuff with one exception--movie hype prices paid by non-collectors. Italian-treasure took the biggest comic book bath I've heard of in the 21st century because he bought during Spidey hype and was forced into selling right after it had totally worn off. He lost more on his Spidey #1 CGC 9.6 than most of our entire collections are worth!

[joe_collector]

However, that coin guy who wandered over here a few months ago said that there was a similar spike that went back down in the mid-1980s with the introduction of certification, but that most of the spike related to the new coin market, and that the market for old, rare coins never experienced a significant nor permanent reduction in value.

 

I don't think that's exactly what he said.

 

Newer coins dropped like a rock, older issues dropped hard as well in the mid-80's, and (if I remember correct) he stated that (circa 2003), that the majority of the older ones had regained their past value.

 

Now he didn't provide numbers, but that isn't a rosy picture.

 

As in, we have a comic crash, Moderns and Bronze are road kill, but just wait 15 years for the GA/SA books to climb back to their previous highs.

[ArAich]

The key element is to identify if you're buying comics because you really want to and enjoy your collection for what it is, or if you're doing it because everyone else is, it looks like a "good investment", or to brag about your purchases on here?

 

You'd better decide quick, because very soon, everyone else will.

 

I, for one, do not put all my eggs in one basket....I like my comic purchases to be multi-layered...

 

Here is a list of my reasons for buying:(in no particular order)

[*]I want that book in HG for my collection.

[*]I want that book because I got it at a great price and can sell it for more later.

[*]I want that book because it is tough to get in any grade.

[*]I want that book because it is the highest graded.

[*]I want that book strictly to flip.

[*]I want that book to have graded and re-sell.

[*]I want that book because I want that book.

 

In any case....I buy a book at a value that I can absorb at present and that I can (if need be) re-sell at a decent price 1 week, 1 month, or even 1-10 years from now....

 

I buy for collecting/investment purposes and have full confidance in my ability to make wise buying choices (as I have for many years) in order to maintain/better my collection or strictly to make money...

[g-man]

As in, we have a comic crash, Moderns and Bronze are road kill, but just wait 15 years for the GA/SA books to climb back to their previous highs.

 

not all bronze...witness sales of early 70s material (1970-72). Conan #1 doing well....DCs consistently get high prices....so although bronze prices are declining overall in the 1974-1980 area, it is not true that ALL bronze age books are crashing. Even in the 74-80 area, ther eare books that hold or keep increasing in value...xmen #94,100,101....ASM #100-151, Team up #1, Some DCs......

 

also is this crash just from ebay sales b/c private sales or show sales are not taken into account and believe me, lots of $$ still being made off of early bronze.

[joe_collector]

Yo Gman, we're talking about the FUTURE!!

 

As in a hypothetical crash, not the steadily declining prices in the overall Bronze market.

[g-man]

Yo Gman, we're talking about the FUTURE!!

 

As in a hypothetical crash, not the steadily declining prices in the overall Bronze market.

 

ok let me know when it happens b/c it isn't going on now in the areas i mentioned.

[fantastic_four]

Now he didn't provide numbers, but that isn't a rosy picture.

 

As in, we have a comic crash, Moderns and Bronze are road kill, but just wait 15 years for the GA/SA books to climb back to their previous highs.

 

Rosy enough to keep me collecting complete high grade Marvel runs until I see evidence of a permanent drop-off into massive oblivion. I don't care so much about the secular decline Gene points out because I do what I can to follow the market closely and I've only got one life to live. If my comics end up being devalued for my kids, then oops, sorry kids, I really enjoyed buying them and sorry I couldn't leave you with more.

[Bonds25]

Thanks for the Beanie tale Bonds, as it brings back memories.

 

I've never been heavy into sportscards (other than what I bought as a kid), but some of my family members are. Most kept to the old adage of "buy low, and buy vintage", but a few jumped into the new card market.

 

It was like someone found out how to print money, and people were ripping brand new packs, sending them to PSA, and then tossing them on EBay for an insane profit. I used to track some stuff for them, and then one day, it seemed as if the music just stopped, people halted their bidding, and the final session of musical chairs began.

 

Talk about a bloodbath, and there was no predicting exactly what day/week/month it would happen. There were few clues, there was no long-term slow decrease in prices, and it was like the entire market had an "I'm paying hundreds of $$$ for little pieces of cardboard??" epiphany.

 

The worst part is that the crashes also take vintage/rare books/cards/coins/beanies with them, and it seems that nothing is immune, even the ones that are rare and highly collectible.

 

Too true. I was one of the dumbarses buying graded sportscards at the time. Buying common PSA 9 cards of Vladimir Guerrero, Frank Thomas, etc for about $10 each (thinking to myself "Well, it costs $10 to grade them so they must be worth at least $10!"), and now they're worth about $2 each.

[joe_collector]

If my comics end up being devalued for my kids, then oops, sorry kids, I really enjoyed buying them and sorry I couldn't leave you with more.

 

Now that's the right attitude!!

[rob_react]

I don't believe you. As far as I've seen and as you've evidenced countless times, you're both mean-spirited and vindictive.

 

Gimme a break. I used to post on here about how I felt bad for speculators who got reamed in coins, cards and soon-to-be, comics, and I was berated by the black-hearts to stp worrying about fools and what they do with their money.

 

So I post some empathetic viewpoints, and get slammed, and then I stop doing so, and get slammed again?

 

Your motives are about as wafer thin as your arms.

 

I still don't believe you. I think you're a mean-spirited jerk and I think that in your insane quest to always be right you would let all empathy fall by the wayside as fast as you could shove it out of the way. You would then, as you promised, "fiddle while the CGC market burned." That's what I believe and that's what kind of person I think you are. I believe empathy only suits you when you can use it to make yourself feel superior to other people.

 

And, yes, my motives are wafer thin. I think you're a jerk, a liar and a hypocrite and when I get just so sick of the bull that comes out of your mouth that I can't stand it any more I like to point it out.

 

As for my arms, what the hell is that all about? Do you HAVE to stoop to stereotypes and insults to get yourself through the day?

 

Anyway, who cares if I did have thin arms? If I did would that suddenly mean you're not a royal jerk? It would have no bearing on the topic at hand. And, since you brought it up, I'm no bodybuilder so no Hammer jokes, but I lift weights three times a week. I also do wu style tai chi daily, swim 1/2 to 3/4 of a mile twice a week, run a couple of miles on the treadmill (I have one in my apartment) three times a week, do Pilates (with my certified Pilates instructor girlfriend) on Mondays and hike, bike and/ or snow shoe whenever the weather is right. So, you can file that "thin arms" comment next to the rest of the imaginary [!@#%^&^] you spread around here.

 

By the way, Mr. Hypocrite, you should be happy I don't go as ballistic with this comment on my physical appearance as you did when Joanna said a fictional character based on you was fat. I remember that. It was like someone had jabbed a hot poker in your eye, the outrage you showed about being, twice removed, associated with someone who was fat.

[ArAich]

So ...are you saying that J_C has fat arms???...

[g-man]

[JohnBull]

I got the weak arms jibe a short while back, "as weak as your grandmothers" I think it was. Personally I couldn't be fussed with all that exercise stuff, I play cards and that's about as strenuous as it gets, so they probably are pretty thin. Mind you, I get to screw the wife several times a week, so I don't really see what the problem is.

[minutekev@50]

C'mon guys....it's

 

No?

 

Okay....

[g-man]

Mind you, I get to screw the wife several times a week, so I don't really see what the problem is.