ASM annual #1 cgc 9.6!

[g-man]

Another observation about the newfound Comiclink madness: wasn't that 9.4 FF # 4 listed with a $19,000 price tag for the longest time? Now its up to $24,000? What's up with that?

 

it's all about the $$.....since the opening bid needs to be 50%, why settle for $9500 when u might get $12000 during this ?

[fantastic_four]

Another observation about the newfound Comiclink madness: wasn't that 9.4 FF # 4 listed with a $19,000 price tag for the longest time? Now its up to $24,000? What's up with that?

 

Haven't you heard? FFs are SUPAHOT!!! They're really hard to find...except for times like right now when everybody simultaneously decides to sell all at once. Everybody's getting ready for the CRASH OF '04!

[murph0]

For it to be a cash-out, he'd have had to have priced the books at prices that they might actually sell at. Most of these just look like wishful thinking. At some of those prices he's asking, who wouldn't sell?

 

Brian

[COI]

For it to be a cash-out, he'd have had to have priced the books at prices that they might actually sell at. Most of these just look like wishful thinking. At some of those prices he's asking, who wouldn't sell?

 

Brian

 

Don't just look at these 2 books. There have been a number of fair sized cash outs since Bob released his FF's to the hounds. I'm not saying long time collectors are all "liquidating", but the amount of quality material that has surfaced publically in the last couple of months has been pretty substantial. And I think it's going to continue, at least until the summer months. If I asked you last fall if you could forsee an Avengers #4 in 9.6 surfacing at this time, or half the books we've seen for that matter, I bet you would have said no.

 

And in terms of these astronomical prices, the seller is putting it out there, which means he's opening up the gates to recieve offers on the book. Like i said above, I wouldn't be surprised if this book did change hands, publically or privately, even if not at 30K. IMO, this is a 13-15K book under normal market conditions, and in the current "mania" I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up selling it for somwhere in the 20-25K region.

[murph0]

Actually a couple of those books that have sold are recent grades (within the past 3 months).

I can't tell the future so I would've never said what we would and wouldn't see.. anything's possible

 

Brian

[Aman619]

I would like a real nice Annual#1. Its got one of my favorite covers: Ditko really aced th efigures.

 

But not at this price.

and not with that miswrap. Im not a PQ fanatic like some of you, but that cover just doesnt look real attractive .

[AtomicPaul-migration]

They will all sell and at levels within 10% of the asking price. History and Josh's track record dictates this.

 

Why do you doubt the validity of the prices or the ability of a number on a label to far transcend the actual value of the comic? These prices are no different than when the Hulk 6 in CGC 9.6 brought $8000 plus in the GMAI #1 auction and then $10,000 plus soon after when flipped! And that was in the infancy of the slabbed market.

 

Never underestimate the power of a label number to perform mind control on a buyer. All you need for a $30,000 sale on an Avengers 4 in 9.6 is the book in the hands of a reputable seller and someone with $30,000 that is convinced that the book is worth that much........even though it isn't.

 

This is a history lesson. Rewind 25 years. How did the Mile high/Edgar Church books come to be thought of as automatic 10X guide material. Keeping in mind that since a high percentage of the keys and main runs had amateur color touch done on the corners by one of the original major dealers/collectors in the early chain of ownership. Because of that, and many of the Church books not really grading MINT but being traded back and forth at 1.6 to 10X guide MINT over a 10 year period were actually being evaluated at 50 to 100X graded guide.

 

When the books were first found, the original major dealers/collectors bought from Chuck at guide MINT to 1.6X guide Mint. Within a year, they were trading at 2X to 3X guide Mint and an upward spiral eventually brought the level to 10X guide within a decade after the find.

 

You must also keep in mind that many of these books didn't sell for cash on each and every flip. For instance, one dealer would trade a Pep 22 and Archie 1 Mile High for $100,000 in trade with another dealer for $100,000 worth of promo rings (Superman Compartment ring, Capt. Marvel decoder ring, etc.). They'd value these items arbitrarily, that is, what they were worth according to them (the two traders), and sometimes lost in translation to the general public would be the fact that no money changed hands. The blurb would look like: "Mile High Archie 1 sells for $50,000 (10X Guide Mint)" meanwhile, that was incomplete info.

 

Anyway, the CGC market is following in the almost identical footsteps of the Mile High/Church market. That was the whole idea! Now that theCGC Silver age high grade comics are approaching relative levels to Church Golden age ratios with respect to multiples X guide NM, you find it difficult to believe??

 

It's here. Gouging runaway prices based on factors other than the comics true worth (you're all knowledgeable collectors and you do realize that the book is truly worth about 1/2 of that, if that). It's now a rich man's hobby. It was supposed to be, and it's here. And we all know what happens to what was a $40,000 to $150,000 a year gross income man's hobby (not a rich man's hobby), when it becomes a rich man's hobby within a short amount of time. We have only to look at the history of other formerly successful and at one time bull market hobbies to see the end result.

 

These books on Link will sell at these levels. It's the attempt to the next level after this quantum leap (what these buyers will try to get for them) that will eventually be the straw that leads to breaking the camel's back.

[delekkerste]

Well it looks like the big cash out is in progress!

 

Indeed.

 

So much for the theory that these high end books are "locked" into collections and are never coming out. This is the first major cash out, but there will be more. And if we're all wondering where the money is going to come from to absorb these books from now, when there's still a good amount of people willing to pay these prices, there will only be less and less money available as the years pass. And while the census may not grow in leaps and bounds, it ain't getting smaller either. Definetly something to chew on.

 

 

I think this is literally the tip of the iceberg...based on demographics alone, we should be seeing wholesale cash-outs starting in about 5 years and only accelerating after that. However, I think the current loopy prices in the market are forcing a lot of veteran collectors to consider very seriously about cashing out early at present levels. Not only are these HG HTF keys hitting the market of late and selling at lofty levels, but even some of the more recent junk you could barely give away a year ago seems to now be getting a bid - seems like a good time to monetize at least part of your collection. Sometimes you gotta sell when the market lets you, not when you planned to.

 

I think that the realization by dealers that pressing books can get them higher grades is also contributing to the recent deluge of extremely HG HTF books hitting the market with the current "big numbers" CGC label. It might not have been worth it where prices were 3 years ago, but with the enormous gaps between 9.2/9.4/9.6/9.8 worth thousands of $$$ in the current marketplace, it seems as though every dealer has invested in a book-squashing device. Even though they aren't making any more of these Silver Age books, some people are forgetting that PRICE CREATES ITS OWN SUPPLY. At high enough price levels (like now), people *will* let go of even the best books in their collections and dealers will resort to whatever quasi-resto techniques at their disposal to get higher grades without earning the dreaded PLOD.

 

Gene

[g-man]

- seems like a good time to monetize at least part of your collection. Sometimes you gotta sell when the market lets you, not when you planned to.

 

exactly. sometimes even though you may not want to move a book or want to (God forbid) keep it for your collection, the market dictates "sell sell sell" and if you miss the boat, the $$ goes bye bye as well. IMO the market is quite healthy at the moment and a great time to be a seller if one can find the right buyers. Easier said than done but like anything else, one must put forth the effort.

[Aman619]

you guys are all getting your panties in a bunch again. All this rampant speculation and prognistication about the end all over a few mid-high grade keys selling quickly on ComicLink and one (maybe two?) collectors putting up extremely HG keys for overly aggressive prices.

 

Just relax. If youre all right about the flood of books hitting markets, you'll know soon enough. Lets see if these sell first, And THEN look for all these boomers cashing out as you predict so "bullishly."

[comicmankev]

[minutekev@50]

I would like a real nice Annual#1. Its got one of my favorite covers: Ditko really aced th efigures.

 

But not at this price.

and not with that miswrap. Im not a PQ fanatic like some of you, but that cover just doesnt look real attractive .

 

It is a great cover. Personally, I think it was one of the best covers Ditko did on on his Spidey run.

[Aman619]

thats perhaps the best Spidey pose ever!

Really nails the character early on. A Marvel editor told me once that he always had to tell new Spidey artists to never draw Spidey just standing around in a panel. Th e"oficial Marvel take was that he should always be hanging upside down or on a wall. Wonder who they got that idea from??

[g-man]

you guys are all getting your panties in a bunch again. All this rampant speculation and prognistication about the end all over a few mid-high grade keys selling quickly on ComicLink and one (maybe two?) collectors putting up extremely HG keys for overly aggressive prices.

 

Just relax. If youre all right about the flood of books hitting markets, you'll know soon enough. Lets see if these sell first, And THEN look for all these boomers cashing out as you predict so "bullishly."

 

who said the end was near? i think people are just wondering what is bringing all these books out at the same time? Hell, i am all for peeps obtaining high prices for books....but there is a difference in prices that are high and those that are crack-head high....

 

and both books ASM annual #1 and AVENGERS #4 ($15K!!!) have bids.....

[drbanner]

you guys are all getting your panties in a bunch again. All this rampant speculation and prognistication about the end all over a few mid-high grade keys selling quickly on ComicLink and one (maybe two?) collectors putting up extremely HG keys for overly aggressive prices.

 

Just relax. If youre all right about the flood of books hitting markets, you'll know soon enough. Lets see if these sell first, And THEN look for all these boomers cashing out as you predict so "bullishly."

 

I'm not sure what collector has 3 high-grade copies of JIM 83, 3 high grade copies of Spidey 129, etc.,.? Could it be a dealer, like say Metro for example, sticking these up there?

 

Record-breaking prices being set monthly, weekly, daily are bringing the best books out of long-time collections, just as has been going on since the first Manning/JP-fueled auctions. Greggy sold his, I sold mine, Bob sold his, Mark's selling his...and people are continuing to buy.

 

Record-breaking prices? A sure sign of the crash...

A flood of high-grade books hitting the market at premium prices? Yep, you guessed it, the crash...

Too many high-grade books being offered at once? The crash...

Not enough high-grade bronze being offered? Probably b/c of the crash...(this was the argument in the fall of '02 when the quality material dried up)

Quality books selling for rock-bottom prices? Not happening...

[murph0]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. I wouldn't be surprised if Shooter returning to comics was a sign of the crash

I guess people expect collectors to hold on to their books infinitely?

 

Brian

[Timely]

Never underestimate the power of a label number to perform mind control on a buyer. All you need for a $30,000 sale on an Avengers 4 in 9.6 is the book in the hands of a reputable seller and someone with $30,000 that is convinced that the book is worth that much........even though it isn't.

 

This is a history lesson. Rewind 25 years. How did the Mile high/Edgar Church books come to be thought of as automatic 10X guide material. Keeping in mind that since a high percentage of the keys and main runs had amateur color touch done on the corners by one of the original major dealers/collectors in the early chain of ownership. Because of that, and many of the Church books not really grading MINT but being traded back and forth at 1.6 to 10X guide MINT over a 10 year period were actually being evaluated at 50 to 100X graded guide.

 

When the books were first found, the original major dealers/collectors bought from Chuck at guide MINT to 1.6X guide Mint. Within a year, they were trading at 2X to 3X guide Mint and an upward spiral eventually brought the level to 10X guide within a decade after the find.

 

You must also keep in mind that many of these books didn't sell for cash on each and every flip. For instance, one dealer would trade a Pep 22 and Archie 1 Mile High for $100,000 in trade with another dealer for $100,000 worth of promo rings (Superman Compartment ring, Capt. Marvel decoder ring, etc.). They'd value these items arbitrarily, that is, what they were worth according to them (the two traders), and sometimes lost in translation to the general public would be the fact that no money changed hands. The blurb would look like: "Mile High Archie 1 sells for $50,000 (10X Guide Mint)" meanwhile, that was incomplete info.

 

Anyway, the CGC market is following in the almost identical footsteps of the Mile High/Church market. That was the whole idea! Now that theCGC Silver age high grade comics are approaching relative levels to Church Golden age ratios with respect to multiples X guide NM, you find it difficult to believe??

 

Comparing an Avengers #4 9.6 to the MH collection that was found in 1977 is apples and oranges my friend, no...more like Avian and mudwater...or Rolex and Roleks...

 

Timely

 

[AtomicPaul-migration]

Not comparing the material. An Avengers 4 is in the minor leaugues compared to Marvel Mystery 4 or Action 4. I'm comparing the market-hobby history of multiple-price guide progression.

 

Isn't it also interesting to note how close the price gap between Golden age major titles and Silver age major titles is narrowing. You're a Timely collector, just think back. Only three years ago you could have bought a CGCed Cap 1 in VF for $30,000. The same asking price now for an Avengers 4 in CGC 9.6!!!

 

Now I know what you're all thinking, "but that's a NM+ book and the Cap 1 you're talking about is "only" a VF". Valid point, but this is too:

 

If you compare rarity vs. grade on all existing copies, a Cap 1 in strict VF is probably about equal in scarcity (amongst all the high grades in existance) to an Avengers 4 in NM+ with a dust shadow (really a NM, if you don't mind dust shadows on your NM books).

 

It seems that the prices on the Silver age main title #1-10s are now equal to what the prices on Golden age main title #1-10s were as little as three to five years ago (right before and at the inception of CGC) in equal, not proportionalized, grades! And the gap is closing.

[Aman619]

ummmm... dont be so sure that collectors dont have multiples.

I have 4 HG (9.2 or better) Spidey 129s and 3 JIMs as well.

 

If youve been buying for years, stuff starts to accumulate. and Im sure I'm not alone even here on the boards. (they didnt always sell for what they go for now.) Nothing brings out the books better than crazy prices!!

[Aman619]

well..its been HOURS and those books have not sold..or by and large even been bid on yet. (I just checked: two "reasonable bids" well below established prices, and one record price for the TTA27)

 

So, I guess we're all still safe. Turns out to be a few (?) over-eager sellers smelling blood that was probably only a shaving nick of the razor.... Better luck next time, crash cheerleaders.