ASM annual #1 cgc 9.6!

[supapimp]

thats perhaps the best Spidey pose ever!

Really nails the character early on. A Marvel editor told me once that he always had to tell new Spidey artists to never draw Spidey just standing around in a panel. Th e"oficial Marvel take was that he should always be hanging upside down or on a wall. Wonder who they got that idea from??

 

annual 1 is a great cover, but as for best pure spidey pose cover, it's hands down ASM 28.

 

 

[comicartfan]

This talk of the crash and people cashing out is insane ! - First, i have been reading about people waiting for this "crash " for two years. When CGC first hit the scene, comic prices skyrocketed to stupid figures ($800 Spawn # 1 anyone ?) and dealers and long time collectors stated that the market would stabilize, that prices couldn't contiune to climb. Yet the new price guide comes out, and every year the prices of most items goes up. I know that dealers have said to me when i asked why they went up on ALL the prices for graded books, the answer was a flat " the new guide came out" -

 

Now, as i read thread after thread about the prices dipping..I got news for you "crash theorists" ...comics aren't getting any cheaper. It makes no differance if they don't go up in price, they aren't going down either (in most cases, espec. Marvel Silver) - And I have said this before, prices go down, people start scrambling to get "deals" or whatever, stock becomes harder to come by and "bang" prices go up. - simple business 101 -

 

I think the surpluss of High Grade Keys that we have seen lately and the abundance of certian titles (FFs, JIMs) is a symptom of a much larger maligancey....it's called ' Greeditis" - If a seller gets a great price on a book, say an Avengers 4 9.4 for example. It reaches $ 7000 - this is strictly to prove a point- all of a sudden, there will be like three copies in a month for sale....not because there was a rush at CGC and people had all of these hidden high grade copies, but because collectors may need to sell for a house, wedding, baby, other books, or whatever and feel that this maybe the time to flip the same book...thinking that they can get it (the same price) too...look at the B&B 54 s that are on Ebay right now. This is a tough book, there is a 9.2 and two 9.4s on there now.....so you expect me to believe that there is a huge jump in resubs, a warehouse find, or my favorite " that's a common book. XYX dealer had a table of them in the 90s."

 

There was a huge low in the market in terms of quality material for months. We all know this. It's been discussed on here. There also has been a huge abundance of comic book movies with many more in the works. This has added to the "cash out now" hysteria. This too shall pass.

 

If the Genes, Beyonders, JCs of the world want to get out will they can, them more power to them. No one is making anyone buy comics.

 

I think that the people on here while knowledgable, have a myopic view of the whole industry - We are a small part of the actual comic collecting market, yet people act like if it happens or is said here on the forum, then it's law. That's ignorance at it's finest.

[blowout]

They will all sell and at levels within 10% of the asking price. History and Josh's track record dictates this.

Why do you doubt the validity of the prices or the ability of a number on a label to far transcend the actual value of the comic?

Never underestimate the power of a label number to perform mind control on a buyer.

These books on Link will sell at these levels. It's the attempt to the next level after this quantum leap (what these buyers will try to get for them) that will eventually be the straw that leads to breaking the camel's back.

 

Isn't that what most of the 'knowledgable collectors' you talk about have been saying? Most people here don't doubt the ability of the Ultra High Grade 'laballed' books to sell at the current outlandish prices, what they worry about is what happens next.

 

 

[COI]

Record-breaking prices? A sure sign of the crash...

A flood of high-grade books hitting the market at premium prices? Yep, you guessed it, the crash...

Too many high-grade books being offered at once? The crash...

Not enough high-grade bronze being offered? Probably b/c of the crash...(this was the argument in the fall of '02 when the quality material dried up)

Quality books selling for rock-bottom prices? Not happening...

 

Record-breaking prices? This is only the beginning, and you'll regret not paying 74X guide when you had the chance.

 

A flood of high grade books hitting the market at premium prices? That's only because there's a market for them, and supply will never EVER satisfy demand. The next generation will sell their testicles for a 9.4 MS #5, since Ghost Rider is a pop-culture icon and it has a black cover. Black covers are rare! Black covers have more defects than regular covers!

 

Too many high grade books offered at once? Demand!

 

Not enough high grade bronze being offered? It's super scarce, especially Hulk 181.

 

Both these extremes are ridiculous. But there's nothing wrong with presenting ideas and giving people something to think about, even if it isn't always positive and upbeat, and even if you don't all agree.

 

 

 

 

 

[COI]

But Mike, don't you think it's myopic to look at the effect of the first few years of CGC, and use them as a barometer for the future?

 

I don't think prices are going to "crash" this year. I don't think prices are going to "crash" next year. They will continue to fluctuate, as they have, for at least another decade, and probably more. Beyond that, who knows? But the fact is, none of us can predict exactly what will happen. A "crash theororist" coming on here and saying "the crash will happen in 2004" is just as ridiculous to me as a perma-bull saying "prices will continue climbing up and up, and you'll regret not buying now". Both extremes are stupid.

 

But you're right about high grade CGC collectors being a very small piece of the pie. Go to the Ebay message boards for 5 minutes, and you'll come back here running and screaming. This place is a mensa meeting in comparison.

 

[Aman619]

okay, before any of you call me on it, let me just say 'yikes' - - I spoke a few hours too soon.

lots of bids and books being sold. If ComicLink were the Yankees, there'd be mobs in the streets screaming "break up ComicLink" by now after this latest wave ...

[lou_fine]

Not comparing the material. An Avengers 4 is in the minor leaugues compared to Marvel Mystery 4 or Action 4. I'm comparing the market-hobby history of multiple-price guide progression.

 

Isn't it also interesting to note how close the price gap between Golden age major titles and Silver age major titles is narrowing. You're a Timely collector, just think back. Only three years ago you could have bought a CGCed Cap 1 in VF for $30,000. The same asking price now for an Avengers 4 in CGC 9.6!!!

 

Now I know what you're all thinking, "but that's a NM+ book and the Cap 1 you're talking about is "only" a VF". Valid point, but this is too:

 

If you compare rarity vs. grade on all existing copies, a Cap 1 in strict VF is probably about equal in scarcity (amongst all the high grades in existance) to an Avengers 4 in NM+ with a dust shadow (really a NM, if you don't mind dust shadows on your NM books).

 

It seems that the prices on the Silver age main title #1-10s are now equal to what the prices on Golden age main title #1-10s were as little as three to five years ago (right before and at the inception of CGC) in equal, not proportionalized, grades! And the gap is closing.

 

I believe one of the major reasons why the SA is starting to catch up to the GA is due to the supply factor. Early SA books in high grade are available in the marketplace and hence is able to generate a turnover in the books and result in a healthy market. Early GA books in high grade are so rare that they virtually never come onto the market and hence is not able to generate the same turnover which results in a much more slower market.

 

The general lack of supply with GA books also results in a lower demand for them because a lot of impatient collectors are not willing to set money aside for books which simply never shows up. It is a lot easier to put silly money into SA books which pops up all over the place. Especially if they are short term investors or speculators trying to flip the book for a quick profit.

[Aman619]

thats all part of it to be sure.... but SA Marvels are still very popular books and the characters are ALL still running around and active. So the collector base spans two or three generations competing for the available copies. GA heroes, even the ones still going, like Bats Supes WW, Torch, Cap, are all very different characters and SA buyers by and large arent really interested in the earlier versions...

[Rickdogg]

thats perhaps the best Spidey pose ever!

 

I don't know if money shots are that great? On a serious note, McFarlane nailed some awesome Spidey poses.

[drbanner]

A "crash theororist" coming on here and saying "the crash will happen in 2004" is just as ridiculous to me as a perma-bull saying "prices will continue climbing up and up, and you'll regret not buying now".

 

Ain't that the truth! But don't forget, there are 12 months in 2004 so those crashists better keep their fiddle tuned up, even while the market continues to be stronger than ever...

[delekkerste]

Ain't that the truth! But don't forget, there are 12 months in 2004 so those crashists better keep their fiddle tuned up, even while the market continues to be stronger than ever...

 

Just out of curiosity, what do you think a market is supposed to look like at or near the end of a mania? Of course it's going to look "stronger than ever"! To paraphrase ex-SNL Weekend Update anchor, somebody please call the editors of the renowned journal of science "DUH". It's not like they ring a bell at the top saying, "OK, time for you to get out now." The market will look "supastrong" (which, contrary to popular belief, is NOT necessarily a sign of good underlying fundamentals) and people won't realize that a change in the market has occurred until significant damage has already occurred. Every major decline starts off looking like a "pause that refreshes".

 

There will be NO CRASH in the traditional sense of the word. Prices won't suddenly fall 60% over a period of days or weeks. It will likely be a long, drawn-out process that takes months or, more likely, years. There will be significant price volatility. Some books will continue to hit new highs even as others lose their appeal, thus keeping hope alive in the True Believers even as their collections sustain significant damage. I really don't understand all these comments people are making to the effect of, "Whoops, the bottom hasn't fallen out of the market this week/month/last year or two - everything must be peachy!" That's just not how the decline will happen - you will likely have to look back some years from now to figure out how it occurred, because most people won't even realize that it's happening in real-time.

 

Personally, I fully expect prices to continue to surge higher in the short-run. I've been saying for a while now that the market has built up a full head of steam with no short-run catalyst to bring it down. A lot of people are saying that prices are ridiculous and this can't last. As much as I would like to believe that significant numbers of Board members are talented enough to "call the top of the market", chances are that market sentiment is still too skeptical for the end to be near. Once we get these recent converts to the skeptic camp getting supa-bullish again, probably after prices soar to even more ridiculous levels and stay there for a while, the market will be more vulnerable at that point for a reversal.

 

Gene

[drbanner]

Just out of curiosity, what do you think a market is supposed to look like at or near the end of a mania?

 

Dunno...and don't pretend to know.

 

I can only look at the facts as they exist at the current time and note that the market continues to be strong for high-grade early bronze, silver, and gold. Yes, there was a sharp decline in the CGC comic book market in 2002 for post-1975 common books (as you're well aware), but quality material has not been similarily affected.

 

It's doubtful that prices will continue to go up such that today's buyer's will be flipping their books for a profit anytime soon, but I don't believe these buyers are all "investors" anyway. Some like to paint today's sellers as smart collectors cashing out, and todays buyers as stupid speculators/investors that are going to lose their shirts, but the reality is, collectors are buying these sweet books too...

 

So no, I don't think prices are going to "crash" this year, and I don't think prices are going to "crash" next year. They will continue to fluctuate, as they have since the hobby was established, for at least the foreseeable future. Beyond that, who knows? But the fact is, none of us can predict exactly what will happen...

[Aces]

 

I got your books all boxed up and ready to mail later today DocB.

 

On topic:

 

The miswrap. Oh isn't it terrible...