CGC Census Analysis... one approach to values...

[valiantman]

Ok, for those of you who may not be aware...

My CGC Census Analysis pages reference the compiled CGC census data

in order to provide a detailed look at the frequencies for any title, publisher, etc.

You can find the "main page" here:

http://www.GregHolland.com/CGC

...and work you way through to the issues that you want to study.

 

Ok, you already knew that... good... moving on...

 

What I'm introducing to you today is a

"frequency-based approximate value calculator."

This is in NO WAY a perfect system... and probably has many bugs...

BUT... if you're interested in playing with this "for entertainment purposes only",

You will now find a tiny dollar sign next to the issues listed on my website.

This little "$" will take you to the value calculator page for the issue.

 

For example, here are the Amazing Spider-man #1 through #10 census numbers...

Beside the listing for Amazing Spider-man 1 (1963), you see the little "$".

It takes you to the CGC Census-based Approximate Value Calculator.

 

All comic books on this page use a "default value" of $100 for UNGRADED near mint.

You can change the value to the appropriate number and hit the "Calculate" button.

For example, you might use a value of $25,000 or $32,000 for ASM #1.

 

What I have attempted to do, obviously, is reflect the price ranges for these books

in each CGC grade using the "base price" for ungraded (non-CGC-certified) near mint books

in combination with the frequencies seen on the CGC census.

 

This "calculator page" exists for any title, from any publisher.

 

Why not just stick with some general formula?

Because just saying that CGC 9.8 is "X times" the value of NM does not take into

consideration the difficulty of obtaining the CGC 9.8 for the given book.

 

Anyway, you guys can play and see what you think...

You can do "what if" scenarios by changing the values in the CGC count column.

 

Hopefully you guys will at least find it interesting...

If you hate it... please don't use it any more and focus on the CGC Census Analysis,

which is the real purpose of my site... just analyzing the CGC census numbers, no dollars.

The value calculator is just a "plaything" to pass the time...

[fantastic_four]

Spidey 1 and 5 are rather off from market values, whereas Spidey 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 look good. The spread on Spidey 2 is so incredibly wide as to not be useful, and the spread on Spidey 3 is less wide but still overly so.

 

What's the forumula you're using to get the minimum and maximum price estimates?

[valiantman]

Ahhh... the formula.

 

It's more of a decision tree than a formula...

When values are high and census numbers are high, it uses certain rules...

When values are high and census numbers are low, it uses others... etc.

It's really just a "trial and error" system that has congealed into what it is now.

(And it will probably change again in the future...)

 

What's different about ASM 1 vs. what you'd expect?

 

(By the way, it's not limited to ASM 1 through 10... anyone can try any book.)

[fantastic_four]

What's different about ASM 1 vs. what you'd expect?

 

The 9.2, 9.4, and 9.6 max values are all too low. The 9.0 range is quite good. All the minimums from 7.0 to 8.5 are too high. Below that I don't track the issue.

[valiantman]

I see... hmmm.... what ungraded NM value do you use?

[fantastic_four]

current Overstreet NM, $32000

[valiantman]

Thanks for the feedback... since you're the only one replying so far...

What do you think of any other titles you track?

Fantastic Four, Hulk, other issues of ASM, etc.?

[Darthdiesel]

Here's feedback - Moderns work better with the Wizard prices

[valiantman]

Here's feedback - Moderns work better with the Wizard prices

Considering I haven't bought an issue of Wizard in 8 years... I wouldn't know.

 

But are these prices that far off? Wolverine #1 (ongoing series)

[Darthdiesel]

Hey Greg - I was taking it seriously - below 9.8 on that example, the numbers fall further from the GPA numbers. I checked right away using Origin 1 as the target book and I'd love for my CGC 10.0 to be worth $3K - it is a nice attempt and deserving of credit. It works for some but not all - but the bottom line is that it is a useful tool for determining value. Kudos to you!

[Darthdiesel]

I also tried ASM 300 and it seems that after 9.6/9.8 the figures differ more than the current trend

[valiantman]

I also tried ASM 300 and it seems that after 9.6/9.8 the figures differ more than the current trend

What portion of "selling prices", especially for moderns, do you think is related

to the cost of the slab itself?

$15 to $20 in slabbing/shipping costs go into modern grading,

even when the CGC grade is 9.4, 9.2, or lower.

 

Does the 9.2 "actual price" for ASM 300 include some extra dollars just for the slab?

If so, how much?

[valiantman]

Hey Greg - I was taking it seriously - below 9.8 on that example, the numbers fall further from the GPA numbers. I checked right away using Origin 1 as the target book and I'd love for my CGC 10.0 to be worth $3K - it is a nice attempt and deserving of credit. It works for some but not all - but the bottom line is that it is a useful tool for determining value. Kudos to you!

When you use an actual ungraded near mint price for Origin 1, like $15...

You get significantly different results..

 

The tool works best when you use the actual ungraded near mint values

as they really are on Ebay...

The $40 listed in Overstreet for Origin 1 is completely unrealistic. $15 is more likely.

Hopefully, the tool is a little closer for the $15 calculations.

[Darthdiesel]

I also tried ASM 300 and it seems that after 9.6/9.8 the figures differ more than the current trend

What portion of "selling prices", especially for moderns, do you think is related to the cost of the slab itself? $20 in slabbing/shipping costs go into modern grading, even when the grade is 9.4 or 9.2. Would a 9.2 "actual price" for ASM 300 include some extra dollars just for the slab?

 

I'd say a good portion (66% - 100%) of the starting price is included by the seller to cover costs. I think the extra $ for multiples come from primarily the CGC grade more than the cost of the slab. I don't know of any buyers, myself included, that feel obligated to factor in the seller's costs when deciding what to bid on a book.

[valiantman]

I also tried ASM 300 and it seems that after 9.6/9.8 the figures differ more than the current trend

I'd say a good portion (66% - 100%) of the starting price is included by the seller to cover costs. I think the extra $ for multiples come from primarily the CGC grade more than the cost of the slab. I don't know of any buyers, myself included, that feel obligated to factor in the seller's costs when deciding what to bid on a book.

I guess I"m trying to figure out why ASM 300 in 9.2 or lower would sell for more

than the values shown in my calculator... so I guess I'm asking...what do you think?

[Darthdiesel]

Ok so what should we use for the NM ungraded value for ASM 300; I was thinking $50 - 60 but maybe I'm too conservative there. AS for Origin 1, it would probably be $15 - $25 more than the $8-10 or $40 noted by OS at this point in time.

 

I don't htink the 9.2 ASM 300 was selling more than what you stated, it is selling for less because the "Heat" drops exponentially on moderns below a threshold grade, especially if the perception is that most of the copies ungraded sitting in collection is around that threshold grade. Point: if I am hoarding ASM 300s and I have 5 in the VF/NM or NM- range, I'm not going to spend big bucks on another CGC 9.0/9.2 because I feel that I could get that same grade with my books, but I'd pay multiples for a 9.6/9.8 of same books because it is harder to attain based on my personal experience.

 

so an actual CGC 9.2 ASM 300 at $50-60 ungraded NM would sell for about $70 - $100 less than your expected $220 - I've had trouble selling 9.6's for over $200 recently

[valiantman]

AS for Origin 1, it would probably be $15 - $25 more than the $8-10 or $40 noted by OS at this point in time.

Yep... I caught that... I changed my original post...

 

I don't htink the 9.2 ASM 300 was selling more than what you stated, it is selling for less because the "Heat" drops exponentially on moderns below a threshold grade...so an actual CGC 9.2 ASM 300 at $50-60 ungraded NM would sell for about $70 - $100 less than your expected $220 - I've had trouble selling 9.6's for over $200 recently

Ok, I'm confused about this comment...

Here's what I show for ASM 300 with a $50 ungraded NM value.

[Darthdiesel]

I'm was looking at the wrong columns With the $50 NM ungraded, the figures now look too low compared to recent actual sales of the ASM 300 slabbed; the 9.8 is avg $800; 9.6 = $$175 - $250; 9.4 = $125- 150; 9.2 = $100 if anyone wants one?

[valiantman]

With the $50 NM ungraded, the figures now look too low compared to recent actual sales of the ASM 300 slabbed

Future market corrections coming?

I'm just glad the numbers are close... so far.

 

I'll see what I can do to make the lines going across a little clearer...

I got cross-eyed earlier today, too.

[Ze-man]

Here's feedback - Moderns work better with the Wizard prices

 

 

I aggree, since wizard comes out monthly, it definatly has a leg up on Oversteet as far as pricing Moderns, Wizard allows for current trends to fluxuate, and prices are more accurate then lumping them into a yearly grade.