Crash conspiracy missing the scarcity factor

[joe_collector]

Are you saying if there's no demand then there's no direct link between scarcity and value, or there's no direct link no matter what?

 

There is no direct link.

 

Luxury items like pop collectibles have thousands of market influences that determine price, with scarcity being only one (and a very small one at that).

 

Anyone who draws a direct line between scarcity and value is looking to take a beating if these other influences point towards comics values dropping. If that happens, you can go to the top of the Empire State building and scream that your comic is "Top Census and Ultra Rare" and it won't do you a whit of good.

[Rob]

Are you saying if there's no demand then there's no direct link between scarcity and value, or there's no direct link no matter what?

 

There is no direct link.

 

Luxury items like pop collectibles have thousands of market influences that determine price, with scarcity being only one (and a very small one at that).

 

Anyone who draws a direct line between scarcity and value is looking to take a beating if these other influences point towards comics values dropping. If that happens, you can go to the top of the Empire State building and scream that your comic is "Top Census and Ultra Rare" and it won't do you a whit of good.

 

Obviously. If I write my name on a piece of paper, and have CGC grade it as 10.0, it may be the only one in the world, but who will want it? But like I said, there is an implied sense of demand with comics.

 

If X-Men 92 has 2 copies in 9.8, and X-Men 93 has 400 copies in 9.8, I can tell you which one will sell for a higher price. Again, it goes without saying that collectors will always want high grade X-Men, even commodity issues. ROM is a different story.

[lighthouse]

And obviously, the newer the book, the more were saved and preserved in better condition.

 

Strangely I do not believe this to be true.

 

Retention and preservation rates are based on the perceived future value by the buyer. During the 1966-1971 period there were a whole lot of people who believed that the comic books being released had high future values. Hoarding was common, and more importantly the hoarding was done by people who knew how to protect their merchandise.

 

Hoarding of comics was far less common just a few years later. The "smart" money believed that the books from mid-1970s would "never be worth anything". And those perceptions held true for a very long time. As recently as 1997, if you asked most dealers they would tell you that Bronze Age material (with a few notable exceptions) was worthless. So those same dealers didn't care for it the way they did their Silver (or even their 80s Teen Titans, X-Men and Daredevils). The Silver Age books deserved a Mylar. The 80s stuff deserved a bag and board. The Bronze Age didn't even deserve a bag. When the bag and board phenomenon first took off, collectors were quick to bag their Golden Age and Silver Age. They may have even bagged some of the newest books they bought. But the Bronze? Nope, that stuff's never gonna be worth anything...

 

Even during time periods when you would think that "everyone" would be preserving their books, it's really not the case. I buy a lot of modern collections each year. A lot of them. And I would say that less than 15% of those collections of books from 1995-on are bagged and boarded. About 20% of them are bagged. The rest are just loose in boxes. Compare that with the books from 1990-1993, where over 80% of all the books I see are bagged and boarded. The people who bought them did so with a perception of future value. That's just not the case with the more recent material. I have bought at least 80 copies of Daredevil 1 in the last two years, and I would say that around half of them arrived without even a bag.

 

The comparison is even more dramatic when you move outside super-heroes. I have been lucky enough to purchase four copies of Strangers in Paradise 1 (1st print) from collectors. Not a single one had a board, one had a bag, one was bagged with the 2nd and 3rd issues. Try to find a high grade Sonic 1. No seriously, try. The print run was actually pretty high on that book, but it went to kids who didn't give a rat's butt about future value. So a large percentage of the copies were thrown away after a few readings and most of the rest look like the comics you'd stick in your back pocket for the ride home on your bike. Powerpuff Girls, Pokemon, Digimon, Scooby Doo... all the same story...

 

Wherever my store is, I always make it a point to have the cheapest prices in town for bags and boards. It's my way of encouraging preservation. And even with that, even with the educational stuff that I do with my customers about preserving their comics, well over half of them do not use bags and boards. They just don't. These are the people determining the future supply of high grade material. And they don't feel it's important to preserve the books.

 

I probably should have made this post in a new thread, since it is sure to be lost in a crash conspiracy thread... Oh well...

[joe_collector]

Without demand, scarcity doesn't mean much. I imply demand when I mention scarcity. Joe was nit-picking.

 

Yeah, and the coin crash never happened.

 

Seriously though, demand has always been the main driver for pop culture collectibles, as we're not talking about a functional item like oil or food here. No one needs a CGC comic in order to drive to work or to feed their family, so the whole supply-and-demand model is quite a bit looser.

 

That's what makes this whole speculative environment so inherently volatile, as we could all stop collecting CGC books and be none the worse for wear.

[Aman619]

another angle to be wary of is the unappreciable or even detectable difference between the 2 9.8s and the what 36 9.6s SO FAR! In you particular example of Hulk#181, the sheer quantity of HG copies should give you pause.... Who's to say (that for that) book for which over 1000 copies exist so far above 9.0 that CGCs momentary opinion that 2 or 3 were a hairsbreath better will still equate to 10s of $1000 difference in th emarketplace years from now??

 

of course, Im of an age that is just immune to the intoxicating sex appeal of Hulk#181...

[Rob]

So now that we've corrected "scacity" vs. "supply & demand," where do you see a market correction (tired of the word "crash") hitting the hardest? Will it be the 10.0 ROM's, or the 9.4 AF 15?

[joe_collector]

If X-Men 92 has 2 copies in 9.8, and X-Men 93 has 400 copies in 9.8, I can tell you which one will sell for a higher price.

 

Other than these being reprint issues and the Census reflecting current demand and resale value (thereby assuring that a 2-to-400 ratio = key issue), the logic is faulty. If that 400 copy book had a first appearance of a character that appeared in a movie, and got his own carton series and ....

 

Then I'd bet real money that this issue would soon be worth more. Demand drives this business, and one look at the Hulk 181 Census numbers should be evidence enough.

[Rob]

Without demand, scarcity doesn't mean much. I imply demand when I mention scarcity. Joe was nit-picking.

 

Yeah, and the coin crash never happened.

 

Again, the coin crash (I presume, could be wrong) was attributed to the increasing populatoin reports. Demand stayed the same, but the perceived short supply was wrong (much like 10.0 Spiderman #1's). What happened to the values of graded coins with values <10?

[Mr. Zipper]

Please tell me no one is paying hundreds of dollars on comic books, and carrying credit card debt too!!!! Surely you're not serious.

 

You're kidding, right?

 

Hundreds of dollars would be a lowball estimate. Don't you realize that we live in a credit culture? I make a very nice living... I'm not rich, but well above the national average. Yet, everyday I see people I know don't make half what I do, driving more expensive cars, wearing expensive jewelry and watches, wearing more expensive clothes and shoes, ... the list goes on and on. A scary amount of people are maxed out and mortgaged up to their eyeballs.

 

Do you think it's any different in comic collecting? I have a sneaking suspicion that many BSDs have maxed out credit cards to match their graded slabs.

 

[Rob]

If X-Men 92 has 2 copies in 9.8, and X-Men 93 has 400 copies in 9.8, I can tell you which one will sell for a higher price.

 

Other than these being reprint issues and the Census reflecting current demand and resale value (thereby assuring that a 2-to-400 ratio = key issue), the logic is faulty. If that 400 copy book had a first appearance of a character that appeared in a movie, and got his own carton series and ....

 

Then I'd bet real money that this issue would soon be worth more. Demand drives this business, and one look at the Hulk 181 Census numbers should be evidence enough.

 

Exactly my point. I picked 2 similar issues, not worth much on their own accord, but being older X-men books, would have demand. All other things equal, the one with the lower population report will be worth more. Even though, they're both 9.8 X-Men issues with nothing special to either one. Their value is based on the population of the other. Odd.

[lighthouse]

Demand stayed the same, but the perceived shirt supply was wrong

 

There really aren't that many shirts??

 

[!@#%^&^]!

 

I am so screwed... I thought we had plenty of shirts... Now I need to get a chest-wax or everyone is going to laugh at me at WonderCon...

[Rob]

Demand stayed the same, but the perceived shirt supply was wrong

 

There really aren't that many shirts??

 

[!@#%^&^]!

 

I am so screwed... I thought we had plenty of shirts... Now I need to get a chest-wax or everyone is going to laugh at me at WonderCon...

 

OK, I corrected the typo. O and I are near eachother on the keyboard.

[joe_collector]

Again, the coin crash (I presume, could be wrong) was attributed to the increasing populatoin reports.

 

Not really. These boom-bust markets naturally occur whenever a new graded commodity pops up. It happened with coins and sportscards, and is destined to hit comics in the near future.

 

And please do not assume that "demand stayed the same", as values plummeted over a very short period of time, and far, far, far, far, far outstripped any Census number increase. When prices fall, people flee, it's just human nature.

 

One day, you just wake up and think "I spent thousands on some old coins?", and the party is over.

[joe_collector]

Exactly my point. I picked 2 similar issues, not worth much on their own accord, but being older X-men books, would have demand.

 

But your example is totally unrealistic, since that kind of Census gap would mean that X-Men 93 is already a key issue, and probably selling for multiples of what #92 does.

 

Or in real-world terms, Hulk 181 vs. 184.

[CompleteRunComics]

Luxury items like pop collectibles have thousands of market influences that determine price, with scarcity being only one (and a very small one at that).

 

Wait wait wait. I must have missed something here.

 

ASM 65 CGC 9.6 price $503.00 vs. ASM 63 CGC 9.4 price 726.99 on Ebay

 

#1 reason the ASM 63 went for more, scarcity.

 

CRC

[Rob]

Exactly my point. I picked 2 similar issues, not worth much on their own accord, but being older X-men books, would have demand.

 

But your example is totally unrealistic, since that kind of Census gap would mean that X-Men 93 is already a key issue, and probably selling for multiples of what #92 does.

 

Or in real-world terms, Hulk 181 vs. 184.

 

No, because 181 is obviously a key, and worth more than 184 on that alone. My point was (supposed to be) that the value of 2 comics, all other things equal, is based on population reports. Am I wrong?

 

[EDIT: CRC proved my point. Off to lunch, then have to do real work. Be back later. Great discussion!]

[comicwiz]

Demand has always driven luxury, non-essential goods like pop collectibles, and when demand drops precipitously, even one-of-a-kind items can take a serious tumble. Del brought up a great example with paintings, which are the definition of rare, yet this market has crashed multiple times and is currently on life support.

 

I'm not so certan that the antique painting market is such a great example, as reports of forgery and fraud have marred one-of-a-kind and reproduction market valuations for centuries. One may argue that the demand of ownership for one-of-a-kind pieces continues to exist. Arresting its potential for floursihment has less to do with the lack of demand, as does, an air of considerable apprenhension, which is largely due to the repeated and constant attempts by thieving individuals to pass off fakes as originals.

 

In the old days, consigned pieces and masterworks were often held in private hands until the owner either passed on, or the artist became a national hero, or recognized enough to necessitate a designation of "master artist", and in so doing, compelled its owners to donate their work to museums and art galleries. The elevation of recognition and status for masterworks, and their transfer into art galleries and museums would also act as a safeguard against reproduction experts who might otherwise reproduce a Michelangelo or Renoir and attempt to pass it off as an original.

 

The current market of mass producing prints, and lithographs to satisfy, what one might argue, a "fabricated" demand for "limited edition" reproductions and works, has had negative repercussions towards current one-of-a-kind masterwork markets. Their dwindling plight is still keeping with century-old characterizations, of a market with high reports of counterfieting, forgery, hyped-up valuations, and manufactured collectors pieces. And it doesn't appear the antique panting market will resurrect from this controversy anytime soon.

[joe_collector]

Wait wait wait. I must have missed something here.

 

ASM 65 CGC 9.6 price $503.00 vs. ASM 63 CGC 9.4 price 726.99 on Ebay

 

#1 reason the ASM 63 went for more, scarcity.

 

And the reasons why some old newsprint is selling in excess of $500 a shot?

[joe_collector]

No, because 181 is obviously a key, and worth more than 184 on that alone. My point was (supposed to be) that the value of 2 comics, all other things equal, is based on population reports. Am I wrong?

 

Obviously, as you won't find a real-world example of side-by-side, all things being equal, non-key issues with a 400 to 2 CGC 9.8 gap.

 

It's like me saying that "if the Earth was flat, would we fall off the edge?", as it too has no relevance to the real-world.

[CompleteRunComics]

And the reasons why some old newsprint is selling in excess of $500 a shot?

 

 

demand

 

CRC

 

and then scarcity.