A market crash of a different cause

[Zonker]

What do we consider high priced for a TPB?

I'd consider $20 high priced for a 100 page TPB of all-new material.

 

If I buy three issues of Daredevil today I pay $8.97, am I to assume that a TPB, of say 100 pages, is going to be considerably more than $9 or $10? It's not.

Gene dismisses this argument without refuting it, but the only reason the 100 page TPB is that cheap is that it is a reprint of material already printed in periodical form. The writers/artists have already been paid, and though they do get reprint royalties, the publishers' TPB creative costs have been subsidized by the previous periodical print-run.

 

Bookstores, newstands etc.. will still be able to return unsold copies. The difference? Instead of returning 3 copies of daredevil, one every three months, they will be returning one Daredevil TPB every three months. Same difference, except the TPB is a complete story in a sturdy shell.

Absolutely agree that TPBs make the most sense in the bookstore/returnable market. I just don't see why anyone is in a hurry to kill off the periodical format: let each market (Bookstore/TPB and LCS) thrive!

[CompleteRunComics]

Okay, well, having debated all that, I guess we all go out for a beer now.

 

cheers,

 

CRC

[Zonker]

What's your point? Fully-returnable...so what? I guess all those companies that make (returnable) products distributed through retailers must all be going out of business. People need to stop thinking in terms of the antiquated pamphlet paradigm and start thinking outside of the box. All the rules are going to change. Yes, there will be some upheaval. No, it will not halt progress.

 

Gene

 

The point is this: Fully-returnable publishing relies upon either

 

a) mass-readership magazines like Time, Sports Illustrated, Playboy, etc. A predictable readership, with a well-understood advertising demographic. The success rate for new magazine launches is not too impressive, and you probably have even less experimentation with new magazine content than you do today with the Big 2 comics publishers.

 

or

 

b) book publishing, where you have a few predictable bestsellers subsidizing a large number of bets on newer authors. You'd need more than just Sandman: Endless Nights in order to offset the losses of a failed launch of a line of brand-new TPBs.

 

And hey-- I'm all for new thinking and new paradigms, I just don't see why we can't have both: build the TPB/bookstore/returnable readership while simultaneously nurturing the periodical form in the direct market. Just seems to me that people like to feel smart and oh-so-pleased-with-themselves by simply dismissing the periodical format as a "phamphlet" and suggesting that getting rid of it is a panacea in and of itself!

[PedigreeMan]

More fuel for the fire.

 

TPBs ain't the future, people.

[joe_collector]

Similarly, when prices increase on a particular title, unit sales decline by less than 25% of the percentage increase in price. So a jump from $2.50 to $2.99 results in a drop in unit sales of around 4%. Revenues and profits both go up.

 

You are absolutely correct, but just keep in mind that other "declining market, raising prices" examples show that there is a limit to that particular "gold mine".

 

At a certain price point, buyers just say no, and the entire business model either shifts 180-degrees towards upscale, limited editions, or simply crumbles.

[FFB]

'House,

 

It makes sense that solving the problem of decreased unit sales is not as simple as lowering the price, especially when those unit sales are almost entirely being sold through specialty stores where many younger kids aren't easily able to go on their own. I think (without going back to check) that I also mentioned that lack of availability of monthlies outside of specialty stores is an equally important factor in the decline of sales.

 

What would be interesting to me would be to have Marvel come out with a line of books sold in three-packs in the supermarket like they used to do. That's where I used to get my comics when I first started reading, and the three-pack plastic keeps the kids from reading the books in the store for free and from tossing the books around. They used to have them hooked on a spinner rack by the checkout stands, so the kids basically had to sit and look at them as they waited with mom in the checkout line. I got my first copy of Amazing Spider-Man #238 out of one of those three packs. Needless to say, this will also help sales of some of the lesser books if you lump a less popular title with a Spider-Man title.

 

I had given this thread up for dead... I am amazed that it actually came back to the living...

 

I voice my opinions pretty frequently on these topics, so some of the old guard here are tired of hearing them... but...

 

I honestly believe that increasing cover prices is probably a better choice than reducing them. There simply isn't the elasticity of demand you would expect when it comes to comic book price points. On two separate occasions I have offered every title in my shop at a 30% discount to every customer off the street for a period of 3-6 months. Unit sales increased by less than 9% in response and revenues dropped sharply (with profits obviously dropping even more sharply). There was no difference in the reponse of subscribers compared to walk-in traffic. Both groups gave a collective shrug at the prospect of cheaper prices.

 

Similarly, when prices increase on a particular title, unit sales decline by less than 25% of the percentage increase in price. So a jump from $2.50 to $2.99 results in a drop in unit sales of around 4%. Revenues and profits both go up. Isolating variables for a legitimate econometric analysis is hardly easy, since most price changes are accompanied by changes in creative teams, but in virtually every case study I have run, profits increase when prices increase.

 

I've said before that Marvel can legitimately treat their monthly pamphlets as an advertising cost for their movie licenses, toys, trade paperbacks, video games, t-shirts, statues, etc... Just as Hasbro was able to sell advertising during its GI Joe cartoons, which were really intended as ads for the GI Joe toys...

[deathlok]

After reading most of the newer posts in this thread, I think some aren't seeing the big picture. If an all TPB publiching were to occur, there would still be new TPB every week. Although it might not be as many as new weekly comics, it would still be a reason to visit the LCS.

 

I think it was Lighthouse that mentioned collectors not being interested in them. If the stories were new, original plots I think people would buy them. Throw in the same thing you have now with collectible issues and the market would still buy them.

 

Have Marvel/DC published recently an original TPB? Not reprints from the monthly title.

[FFB]

I think we call them graphic novels.

 

Also, why kill the monthlies? Why does expansion of TPBs or deluxe format books mean that monthlies have to die, if monthlies are profitable?

 

After reading most of the newer posts in this thread, I think some aren't seeing the big picture. If an all TPB publiching were to occur, there would still be new TPB every week. Although it might not be as many as new weekly comics, it would still be a reason to visit the LCS.

 

I think it was Lighthouse that mentioned collectors not being interested in them. If the stories were new, original plots I think people would buy them. Throw in the same thing you have now with collectible issues and the market would still buy them.

 

Have Marvel/DC published recently an original TPB? Not reprints from the monthly title.

[delekkerste]

Gene dismisses this argument without refuting it, but the only reason the 100 page TPB is that cheap is that it is a reprint of material already printed in periodical form. The writers/artists have already been paid, and though they do get reprint royalties, the publishers' TPB creative costs have been subsidized by the previous periodical print-run.

 

Zonker,

 

All the critics of TPB-ization make this point and it's simply wrong - it assumes that we're living in a static world whereby the removal of monthly pamphlets (which have subsidized TPBs) has no effect on the economics of TPBs. Let's say that a title sells 100,000 pamphlets a month, which "subsidize" the 20,000 TPBs being sold (just to use round numbers). I agree, if the 100,000 pamphlet sales a month disappeared, there's no way you could sell the 20,000 TPBs at the same price and make the same money. But, that's NOT going to happen.

 

Let's call the title in question "Ultimate Spider-Man" for argument's sake. Let's say the monthlies are abandoned in favor of all-original TPBs. Are the 100,000 (let's ignore the hoarding going on, for simplicity's sake) monthly readers of USM really going to stop reading the title? Of course not. So, let's say that, again for simplicity's sake, that 20,000 specs, hoarders and pamphlet die-hards drop the title, but that 20,000 new readers pick up the book now that it's more readily available outside one's LCS.

 

So, net-net, you now have 120,000 people buying each TPB (100,000 old pamphlet readers + 20,000 old TPB readers - 20,000 old pamphlet readers + 20,000 new TPB readers). Are you telling me the economics of a TPB selling 120,000 copies are the same as for one selling 20,000 copies? Obviously, the whole creator royalty scheme would have to be tinkered with, but net-net, in my example, it should pretty much be a wash for both the publishers and the creators if done rationally and equitably. This point is most definitely NOT going to be a deal-killer as far as original TPBs are concerned.

 

Now, one may argue that you'll lose more than 20% of the current reader base if you switch to TPBs because of the much higher price point. That may be so - if TPBs were left in their current format. But, here again, we have the opportunity to re-think the old rules in terms of pricing, formats, etc.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

More fuel for the fire.

 

TPBs ain't the future, people.

 

The point I took from that article was that the Direct Market (i.e., LCSs) can compete with the big book chains when the two carry the same product. If anything, that should alleviate some concern that expanded distribution will put all the LCSs out of business.

 

Gene

[FFB]

TPBs are still a pretty new phenomenon in megabookstores. In a few years, those numbers may change. If LCSs didn't have monthlies to draw customers, they might not do so well with the TPBs.

 

More fuel for the fire.

 

TPBs ain't the future, people.

 

The point I took from that article was that the Direct Market (i.e., LCSs) can compete with the big book chains when the two carry the same product. If anything, that should alleviate some concern that expanded distribution will put all the LCSs out of business.

 

Gene

[FlyingDonut]

I LOVE trades, and for certain books, only buy them. Ultimate Spider-Man comes to mind. I can get the trades for 35% off cover from Amazon or other places, and can sit and read them in the can.

 

The better example is my 8 year old, who DEVOURS Sojourn - but won't pick up the "pamphlet" to save his life. He waits for Lighthouse's trade to arrive, goes into his room, and comes out an hour later. He's the comic buyer of 2014, my friends, and if all he remembers are trades, that's what he'll be buying.

[Zonker]

Okay, well, having debated all that, I guess we all go out for a beer now.

 

cheers,

 

CRC

 

[delekkerste]

book publishing, where you have a few predictable bestsellers subsidizing a large number of bets on newer authors. You'd need more than just Sandman: Endless Nights in order to offset the losses of a failed launch of a line of brand-new TPBs.

 

First of all, I oppose any use of Sandman: Endless Nights as an example, pro or con, in favor or against, all-original TPBs. That's a hardcover book with a $24.95 cover price. I don't think that's what anyone envisions when they talk about all-original TPBs.

 

As far as returnability is concerned, I'm not saying it's not an issue, just not as big a deal as you make it out to be. Especially when you consider the readership/entrenched base of current readers. It's not like if you made "New X-Men" an all-original TPB that you wouldn't know if it would sell 10,000 copies or 500,000 copies - you could make a pretty fair estimate based on current New X-Men TPB and pamphlet sales.

 

 

And hey-- I'm all for new thinking and new paradigms, I just don't see why we can't have both: build the TPB/bookstore/returnable readership while simultaneously nurturing the periodical form in the direct market. Just seems to me that people like to feel smart and oh-so-pleased-with-themselves by simply dismissing the periodical format as a "phamphlet" and suggesting that getting rid of it is a panacea in and of itself!

 

You've got it backwards. It's not that people like me want to see pamphlets disappear - it's that the comic industry will die, surely as you and I, if the pamphlet continues to be the primary sales unit. Pamphlets were banished long ago to LCS's where most of the population never sees them - no wonder videogames, etc. which are in everyone's face all the time are now orders of magnitude more popular than comics. To have any hope of stemming the industry's secular decline, publishers must nurture the next generation of readers, and that means making comics accessible, readable and a good value proposition (better art and stories cannot do it alone - the overall product needs to be revamped, as well as the distribution scheme). Overpriced, fragile, thin (22-pgs. of content??) pamphlets destined to be sealed in mylar or a CGC case and stored in a fanboy's basement (often unread) are not helping the hobby's long-term future. Furthermore, they saddle the publisher with a burdensome cost structure - there is so much more a publisher can do in terms of reining in production and distribution costs, not to mention overall pricing, with TPBs.

 

I have no problem with pamphlets co-existing with TPBs, but TPBs must, at some point, become the primary emphasis of the publishers - it makes sense from a value perspective to the customer, to a visibility/accessibility perspective for fresh readers, to a cost perspective for the publisher. I agree that pamphlets can continue to play a role, particularly in launching/test-marketing new titles and for lower print-run titles.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

After reading most of the newer posts in this thread, I think some aren't seeing the big picture. If an all TPB publiching were to occur, there would still be new TPB every week. Although it might not be as many as new weekly comics, it would still be a reason to visit the LCS.

 

Very true. Not to mention the back issues, toys, cards, magazines, etc. that LCS's sell. And, as I mentioned, the pamphlets probably wouldn't go away entirely either.

 

 

Have Marvel/DC published recently an original TPB? Not reprints from the monthly title.

 

Marvel is launching a line of original TPBs (some of those "Marvel Age" books and "Spider-Girl", if I recall correctly). However, they are also publishing pamphlets of some or all of these books and, with Spider-Girl, we are not exactly talking about USM here - that was a book already on the verge of cancellation multiple times. I fear that these titles may be pre-destined to fail. I wish Marvel would have the guts to launch a major title (like Ultimates vol. 2) in an all-original TPB format or try switching a popular title over to the format to see what consumer acceptance really would look like.

 

Gene

[PedigreeMan]

There have been four great paradigm shifts in the comic book market since its modern day inception back in 1933:

 

- 1938: Siegel and Shuster create Superman, kicking off the superhero and solidifying the comic book as one of the preeminent forms of children’s entertainment.

- 1954: Wertham’s attack demonizes comic books, causing readership to drop precipitously.

- 1960s: Stan Lee and Marvel Comics pioneer the use of the continued story, beginning the marginalization of the hobby to those of a more obsessive-compulsive bent.

- late 1970s: Phil Seuling’s direct market idea goes critical, completing the marginalization begun by Marvel in the ‘60s and relegating the comic book primarily to a niche market.

 

And we’ve been in the niche market begun by Seuling ever since. Except for some transitory speculator blips in the ‘80s (B&W boom) and ‘90s (marketing boom), the readership has continued to decline as this marketplace solidified. Now that monthly comic books are essentially only available via specialty retailers, that readership has leveled off. The 300,000 - 500,000 people who currently buy comics on a weekly basis will remain static for the foreseeable future. Children, teenagers, and even adults with a streak of obsessive-compulsiveness in them will slowly trickle into our hobby and replace those “greybeards” who leave or die. It’s been happening since the ‘80s -- and one could even argue since the ’60s -- and I see no reason why it will stop in the future.

 

Comic books will never be part of the mainstream. Their time in that sun has long since passed.

 

Rather, the next great paradigm shift in the comic book market will come about like all the others before it: In response to an impending or imminent demise. Right now, the most likely scenario for this is if one of the Big Two were to stop publishing, either due to a bankruptcy (re: Marvel) or parental politics (re: DC). This would result in an immediate loss of 25-33% of nearly every comic book store’s weekly income, killing off even those of Lighthouse’s caliber. A critical mass of sorts would then very quickly be reached, leaving only a handful of stores in the entire nation and thus threatening the entire market. In order to ensure its near- and long-term survival, the remaining publisher would need to implement a hardcore restructuring of its entire methods of production, distribution, and sales. If anyone here knows what that restructuring would look like, please share it with Marvel or DC since I’m certain they would hire you on the spot for an Executive VP position.

 

TPBs -- which have been around without much fanfare for well over a decade -- are not the answer to the restructuring question. They’re more or less another blip on the radar, and at best a slight adjustment in the hobby’s dynamics. They do not appeal to the core, obsessive-compulsive collector who needs to see an ever expanding run of Leotard Man slowly moldering in his basement. Remember, collectors and readers are two very different creatures, and our hobby is comprised primarily of the former.

 

Personally, I think we all just need to kick back and enjoy what we have today. Stop worrying about who’s joining our ranks or how many of them are doing so in a given month/quarter/year. You’ll all still have your weekly pamphlets … and if they ever do go away, you’ll have more money to spend on slabs!

 

Alan

[FFB]

Right now, the most likely scenario for this is if one of the Big Two were to stop publishing, either due to a bankruptcy (re: Marvel) or parental politics (re: DC).

 

Was this an example, or are you actually suggesting that Marvel is in danger of bankruptcy?

[supapimp]

Was this an example, or are you actually suggesting that Marvel is in danger of bankruptcy?

 

as a shareholder you sure don't do your due diligence.

[FFB]

And by this, you mean what?

 

Was this an example, or are you actually suggesting that Marvel is in danger of bankruptcy?

 

as a shareholder you sure don't do your due diligence.

[Zonker]

 

So, net-net, you now have 120,000 people buying each TPB (100,000 old pamphlet readers + 20,000 old TPB readers - 20,000 old pamphlet readers + 20,000 new TPB readers). Are you telling me the economics of a TPB selling 120,000 copies are the same as for one selling 20,000 copies?

...

 

Now, one may argue that you'll lose more than 20% of the current reader base if you switch to TPBs because of the much higher price point. That may be so - if TPBs were left in their current format.

 

Yes, that's perhaps the source of our disagreement. I read Lighthouse's post about the relative price in-elasticity of demand he's experienced as cover price is increased from $2.00 to $2.25 to $2.50 etc. But if a sudden jump occured from say $3.00 per month to $15.00 per quarter, then I suspect-- without being able to prove it-- a lot of comics buyers would use that event as a reason to drop or severely curtail their habit. But that's just my opinion.