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What % of Highest are Pedigrees?

Started by sfilosa,

28 posts in this topic

sfilosa

sfilosa

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I'm wondering if anybody has a guess of what percentage of the highest graded copy (certified or not) in existence, is from a known pedigree.

 

Basically it seems that when you see Golden-Age books (and including Atomic-Age), that the highest CGC copies are usually from a pedigree collection. If that's the case, then it's more believable to assume that there are not many (if any) other higher grade copies, unless they are pedigree issues that haven't been graded.

 

Stated another way, 20 years from now, do you believe over half of the highest CGC'd copies will be from a pedigree collection. Way more than half, or way less than half?

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tth2

tth2

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Posted
I'm wondering if anybody has a guess of what percentage of the highest graded copy (certified or not) in existence, is from a known pedigree.

 

Basically it seems that when you see Golden-Age books (and including Atomic-Age), that the highest CGC copies are usually from a pedigree collection. If that's the case, then it's more believable to assume that there are not many (if any) other higher grade copies, unless they are pedigree issues that haven't been graded.

 

Stated another way, 20 years from now, do you believe over half of the highest CGC'd copies will be from a pedigree collection. Way more than half, or way less than half?

 

For GA, yes, way more than half, simply because of the sheer volume and magnificence of the Church collection. And where the best copy is not Church, then there's a high probability that it'll be a Reilly, Chicago or some other pedigree.

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Timely

Timely

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Typically the Mile High will be the highest graded copy for any given issue, however sometimes a Frisco, Rockford or Penn copy will beat out the MH for a minor technical reason.

 

I'd say the chance of a random book beating out the MH and all the other known pedigree copies is slim, 1 out of 25. The thing is, many old-timers may not get their pedigrees certified, such as the owner of the MH Batman #1-17.

 

Timely

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sfilosa

sfilosa

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Typically the Mile High will be the highest graded copy for any given issue, however sometimes a Frisco, Rockford or Penn copy will beat out the MH for a minor technical reason.

 

I'd say the chance of a random book beating out the MH and all the other known pedigree copies is slim, 1 out of 25. The thing is, many old-timers may not get their pedigrees certified, such as the owner of the MH Batman #1-17.

 

Timely

 

So you are saying somewhere in the 90-95% of highest graded copies will be known pedigrees. I wouldn't disagee with you.

 

That said, what about 50's books.

 

There doesn't seem to be as many pedigrees (White Mountain, Bethlehem, Spokane, come to mind), but amazingly, a lot of the books that are CGC graded are not 9.4 and higher. Of course, it's possible that the true NM's of these collections have not been graded yet, but do you think the % for this era is a lot lower?

 

Lastly, does anyone know what the latest year there are Mile High books from. And did the quality of these books diminish much, since these would have been the issues on top of the stacks?

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1962

1962

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The quality of the Church books for the later years is definetly worse then the early years. Scuff marks, minor folds and wear etc.I have a couple from this era and ugh what a difference! While others may disagree I believe the last year of veriable Church books is 1953.

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rob_react

rob_react

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I would assume the same were true of Gaines copies of the EC titles.

 

I think it would be even more true of the Gaines files. Not all of the sets have been cgc graded by a long shot (4,7,12? I don't remember off-hand) and I'd bet every top graded EC book is from the Gaines Files right now. Knowing that every set has gems it's tough to imagine a scenario where a Gaines File copy wasn't the best in existence.

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tth2

tth2

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That said, what about 50's books.

 

There doesn't seem to be as many pedigrees (White Mountain, Bethlehem, Spokane, come to mind), but amazingly, a lot of the books that are CGC graded are not 9.4 and higher. Of course, it's possible that the true NM's of these collections have not been graded yet, but do you think the % for this era is a lot lower?

 

I don't know much about the non-superhero genre, except for Duck books, but my personal experience is that in general, 1950s silver superhero books are actually harder to find in high grade than GA superhero books. Part of the reason is that the Church collection really distorts things, because it was so deep and of such great quality that it makes high grade GA more plentiful than probably should've been the case. Without that collection, perhaps GA and 1950s SA would be about the same in terms of rarity in high grade. However, because of the 1950s SA's lower print runs, lesser interest in superheroes, fewer eccentrics amassing great collections, etc., I still think they would've been rarer in high grade than GA.

 

The great pedigrees mirror overall collecting trends: comics were very popular during GA, and as a result the odds of some great collections being amassed at that time were better, which is borne out by the existence of several great pedigree collections from that era. Similarly, the next great era in collecting was driven by the popularity of Marvel SA, and not coincidentally, that's the general time frame of the great SA pedigrees (PC, Curator, Western Penn). Yes, there are some Western Penn that pre-date the Marvel era. And as you point out, there are some pedigrees that span the 1950s and 1960s, such as WM and Bethlehem. But to my knowledge none of these collection has produced the kind of high grade 1950s runs seen in the great pedigrees of the GA or the SA.

 

I hold out hopes that there are true NM books from the 1950s SA. But, I'm also a believer in probabilities--if there truly were multiple NM copies of the Flash Showcases, GL Showcases and Legion Adventures and Actions, at least a few would have been slabbed and come on the market by now. Instead, thus far there have still been a grand total of 1 9.4 Showcase 4, no 9.4 copies of the other Flash Showcases, no 9.4 Flash 105, no 9.4 copies of Showcase 22 or 24 and only 1 9.4 Showcase 23, 1 9.6 copy (!) and 1 9.4 copy of Adventure 247 and no 9.4 copies of Adventure 267 or Action 267. Each of these books, with the exception of Action 267, would command five figures, so it's not like there's no economic incentive for someone to slab and sell.

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sfilosa

sfilosa

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The quality of the Church books for the later years is definetly worse then the early years. Scuff marks, minor folds and wear etc.I have a couple from this era and ugh what a difference! While others may disagree I believe the last year of veriable Church books is 1953.

 

 

Metropolis has a non-CGC'd Tales of Suspense #1 on their website stating it's the Church / Mile High copy. That's the late 50's. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

TOS #1

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Timely

Timely

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50's books are different. Obviously the EC's are locked up. Spokane's are great as are Bethlehem copies, but 50's books entail a lot of different catagories. There is not a single pedigree 50's collection that encompases superhero, teen, sci-fi, funny animal, good-girl, horror, etc....

 

On 50's books I'd say 5 out of 8 highest graded copies will be from a pedigree.

 

timely

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1962

1962

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A couple of reasons. First in the original Church list released by Chuck there is no Tales of Suspense 1 listed. But much more importantly in looking at the Church list and specifically looking at the titles that run through the 1953-1955 time period all of the Church books stop in 1953 as far as I can see.Obviously it is possible that some comic fanatic bought up all the Church books from lets say 1954-1959(Tales of Suspense 1) before Chuck released his list but I think this is highly doubtful. Also as a side note I have heard that Church retired in 1953. If this is true it also seems logical that maybe he left his comic collecting behind at the same time for financial reasons or maybe a life change?

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nochips

nochips

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The quality of the Church books for the later years is definetly worse then the early years. Scuff marks, minor folds and wear etc.I have a couple from this era and ugh what a difference! While others may disagree I believe the last year of veriable Church books is 1953.

 

 

Metropolis has a non-CGC'd Tales of Suspense #1 on their website stating it's the Church / Mile High copy. That's the late 50's. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

TOS #1

 

How is that possible, there are not any Mile Highs from 1959?

 

Am I missing something here? TOS 1 came out in 1959.

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archiefan

archiefan

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The quality of the Church books for the later years is definetly worse then the early years. Scuff marks, minor folds and wear etc.I have a couple from this era and ugh what a difference! While others may disagree I believe the last year of veriable Church books is 1953.

 

 

Metropolis has a non-CGC'd Tales of Suspense #1 on their website stating it's the Church / Mile High copy. That's the late 50's. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

TOS #1

 

How is that possible, there are not any Mile Highs from 1959?

 

Am I missing something here? TOS 1 came out in 1959.

 

And that 8.5 grade they gave it is being a little generous

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ghoulaid

ghoulaid

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IMHO I strongly suspect that the Tales of Suspense 1 listed as a Church book on Metropolis's website is a mistake.

 

I'd say it's a mistake too! smile.gif I think the last Church books were a few stragglers into 1956. Don't quote me on that though.

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Arty

Arty

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There are Church books that came after 1953, but not many.

 

Here's publication year statistics of nearly 1400 CGC-graded Church books.

 

church%20years.png

 

 

In original Mile-high catalog there are series like Jungle Jim, Jungle Tales and Congo Bill that started in 1954-55.

 

news.gif But latest Church copy I have found in original MH-list came in 1960 news.gif

 

That DC series started in 1948..... gossip.gif

 

devil.gif

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Timely

Timely

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Here is some more news.gif

 

Not all the books on the original MH list are actually from the Edgar Church collection. When Chuck found the Church collection he already had some regular books and put them in that original sale list. All those later books from the 1950s on the MH list are not Edgar Church books. foreheadslap.gif

 

Timely

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Arty

Arty

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I have suspected that Chuck might have put some of his other books on that list, so it seems to be true.

 

Btw that serie going up to year 1960 is western comics. CGC has slabbed number 54 as Church copy. Last copies in MH-List are numbers 54-57, 72, 74 and 80. Link

Last real Crurch copy is possibly 57 from 1956? Perhaps latest Church books are from year 1956?

 

opinions...

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