• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

2014 price predictions- post 'em here!

Started by SuperBird,

69 posts in this topic

CBT

CBT

Posted
Posted

 

Ok. So I asked why you think a TV show creates a more sustained long term value.

I don't disagree with your Y assessment. By comparison though the Y spike will be much larger.

 

I agree it will be larger because the book is better, but the other one coming frmo having essentially NO VALUE, might be larger as a percentage, if anything i think the Y bump would be LONGER, more than BIGGER (in percentage value pre/post).

 

I think a TV Show is far more likely to make something a "part" of the culture, which permanently increases desirability. Their will always be a hardcore following for any book, but for long term sustained growth you need two things imo:

 

1.) Mass appeal/large reach

2.) A general belief that the book will be worth more tomorrow than it is today.

 

 

Regarding 1.)

YTLM might be well known here, but it has no traction whatsoever in mainstream culture. If the movie is a big hit, it will be "cool movie, cool book to go with it", but not enough to permanently hold interest.

 

If its a 2-4 year tv show, the ground swell of attention and growth of interest has time to build, and become more permanent.

 

Regarding 2.)

once the movie is done, and people have been overpaying in the lead up to it, the books will dip. That doesnt preclude it from regaining those values, but will it do so because of inherent market demand, or just slowly fade until inflation raises it back up to those levels years later?

 

A TV show allows the "its going to keep going up" belief to last much longer (ahem WD), get far more people and dollars committed to seeing a return on it, and makes for a much stronger floor in the price

 

Once the show is done, then there is always potential for spin-offs, an eventual movie, etc. Lots of "potential" for people to push, and cling to "future gains".

 

When a one off movie is done, it will be pretty apparent right away whether sequels will happen, and it would have to be the movie of the year to ever go backwards from big screen to tv screen.

 

that's my general thought process anyway...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
N/A

N/A

Posted
Posted

 

Ok. So I asked why you think a TV show creates a more sustained long term value.

I don't disagree with your Y assessment. By comparison though the Y spike will be much larger.

 

I agree it will be larger because the book is better, but the other one coming frmo having essentially NO VALUE, might be larger as a percentage, if anything i think the Y bump would be LONGER, more than BIGGER (in percentage value pre/post).

 

I think a TV Show is far more likely to make something a "part" of the culture, which permanently increases desirability. Their will always be a hardcore following for any book, but for long term sustained growth you need two things imo:

 

1.) Mass appeal/large reach

2.) A general belief that the book will be worth more tomorrow than it is today.

 

 

Regarding 1.)

YTLM might be well known here, but it has no traction whatsoever in mainstream culture. If the movie is a big hit, it will be "cool movie, cool book to go with it", but not enough to permanently hold interest.

 

If its a 2-4 year tv show, the ground swell of attention and growth of interest has time to build, and become more permanent.

 

Regarding 2.)

once the movie is done, and people have been overpaying in the lead up to it, the books will dip. That doesnt preclude it from regaining those values, but will it do so because of inherent market demand, or just slowly fade until inflation raises it back up to those levels years later?

 

A TV show allows the "its going to keep going up" belief to last much longer (ahem WD), get far more people and dollars committed to seeing a return on it, and makes for a much stronger floor in the price

 

Once the show is done, then there is always potential for spin-offs, an eventual movie, etc. Lots of "potential" for people to push, and cling to "future gains".

 

When a one off movie is done, it will be pretty apparent right away whether sequels will happen, and it would have to be the movie of the year to ever go backwards from big screen to tv screen.

 

that's my general thought process anyway...

 

A Movie/TV Show can never be as good as I imagine it could be. Think about it. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Go to topic listing