If the crash comes...

[N/A]

Yuuuuuup!

[RockMyAmadeus]

I see a lot of people STILL don't understand that the reason many of the ultra-high grade books have "crashed" is a CENSUS phenomenon, and not a BUBBLE phenomenon.

 

Folks, it's fundamental to understanding the slabbed market of the 00's and early 10's. Yes, nothing exists in a vacuum, and there are all ancillary reasons to all of this, but the ultra-high grade crash did NOT happen because of a change in demand, lack of movie hype, loss of interest, or anything like that.

 

It happened because those numbers were never real to begin with. They were artificial, based on "perceived rarity" due to low census population numbers.

 

If you're going to talk about those markets, you must, must, must understand that and incorporate it into your arguments, or you will always be missing the single most important factor in that discussion.

 

Read this:

 

http://www.nationalsilverdollarroundtable.org/?p=920

[Gatsby77]

You're not wrong here, RMA.

 

But I was challenged specifically as to whether Jonah Hex keys and Green Lantern keys were subject to pre-movie speculation, separate and apart from the overall spike in high-grade Bronze keys that all seemed to peak in late 2008-2009.

 

And they were, just as much as Guardians keys were, if not more so.

[JTLarsen]

You're not wrong here, RMA.

 

But I was challenged specifically as to whether Jonah Hex keys and Green Lantern keys were subject to pre-movie speculation, separate and apart from the overall spike in high-grade Bronze keys that all seemed to peak in late 2008-2009.

 

And they were, just as much as Guardians keys were, if not more so.

 

No, you weren't. You were challenged as to whether movie hype was the ONLY factor.

[the blob]

jonah hex was definitely jacked up by the movie.

 

i will assume GL was too, but a bit odd in that these were often expensive to start with.

[JTLarsen]

jonah hex was definitely jacked up by the movie.

 

i will assume GL was too, but a bit odd in that these were often expensive to start with.

 

I'd disagree. They were expensive to start with for the same reason they're still expensive now--despite the movie flops: They're key books for characters that are big comic book characters. Jonah Hex has had a New 52 title. He's appeared in movies and animation and comic books. He's the biggest western star DC ever produced. His debut was and is and will be a big deal for a long time. So was his first #1 issue. So was his death issue.

 

GL 76 and other GL keys speak for themselves. With or without movies.

[the blob]

but the hex stuff really exploded prior to the movie. and then went back to reality after the movie was a bust. i know it wasn't a cheap book to start with, but the movie hype made a lot of other hex stuff expensive for a bit as well.

 

i have a tough time believing a book like GLs first showcase was THAT pushed by a movie that was going to star ryan reynolds.

[valiantman]

I see a lot of people STILL don't understand that the reason many of the ultra-high grade books have "crashed" is a CENSUS phenomenon, and not a BUBBLE phenomenon.

 

Folks, it's fundamental to understanding the slabbed market of the 00's and early 10's. Yes, nothing exists in a vacuum, and there are all ancillary reasons to all of this, but the ultra-high grade crash did NOT happen because of a change in demand, lack of movie hype, loss of interest, or anything like that.

 

It happened because those numbers were never real to begin with. They were artificial, based on "perceived rarity" due to low census population numbers.

 

If you're going to talk about those markets, you must, must, must understand that and incorporate it into your arguments, or you will always be missing the single most important factor in that discussion.

 

Read this:

 

http://www.nationalsilverdollarroundtable.org/?p=920

Sweet article (thumbs u

[RockMyAmadeus]

I see a lot of people STILL don't understand that the reason many of the ultra-high grade books have "crashed" is a CENSUS phenomenon, and not a BUBBLE phenomenon.

 

Folks, it's fundamental to understanding the slabbed market of the 00's and early 10's. Yes, nothing exists in a vacuum, and there are all ancillary reasons to all of this, but the ultra-high grade crash did NOT happen because of a change in demand, lack of movie hype, loss of interest, or anything like that.

 

It happened because those numbers were never real to begin with. They were artificial, based on "perceived rarity" due to low census population numbers.

 

If you're going to talk about those markets, you must, must, must understand that and incorporate it into your arguments, or you will always be missing the single most important factor in that discussion.

 

Read this:

 

http://www.nationalsilverdollarroundtable.org/?p=920

Sweet article (thumbs u

 

Yes, it is.

 

Replace "coins" with "comics", "telemarketers" with "auction houses" and "electronic trading networks" with "eBay", and it describes exactly what happened in comics, only a little slower because of the lack of direct competition.

 

By the way...the example in the article? The MS65 1890 $2.50? Granted, no one's going to say "well, *I* think it's really a 64, and only worth $2,000!" these days, but the $18,000 price quoted in 1990?

 

In 1990, $18,000 would have bought you a relatively decent mid-grade Tec #27. It also would have bought probably 2-3 VF/NM or better AF #15s.

 

The last 1890 MS65 $2.50 that Heritage sold was in 2011, 21 years after the $18,000 value quoted in the article.

 

Price?

 

$6,039.80.

 

[CongoBill]

Sad because I liked the Dredd remake. The actor that played him is highly underrated IMO.

 

 

Yeah, Dredd was great fun. I know the actors were trying to drum up support for a sequel but not sure if that worked out. I guess it didn't. It's a shame more people didn't see that movie.

[revat]

Sad because I liked the Dredd remake. The actor that played him is highly underrated IMO.

 

 

Yeah, Dredd was great fun. I know the actors were trying to drum up support for a sequel but not sure if that worked out. I guess it didn't. It's a shame more people didn't see that movie.

 

I enjoyed the movie. I think part of the problem with that movie is that it didn't really have to be 'dredd'. It literally could have been any dystopian future movie starring anyone.

[natevegas]

Sad because I liked the Dredd remake. The actor that played him is highly underrated IMO.

 

 

Yeah, Dredd was great fun. I know the actors were trying to drum up support for a sequel but not sure if that worked out. I guess it didn't. It's a shame more people didn't see that movie.

Yeah I like Karl Urban and his tv show Almost Human was top notch too yet got the mat pulled out from under it too. He can't seem to catch a break but he has mad acting skills.

[CongoBill]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

 

In real money terms they do not always go up. How are GA westerns doing?

 

Golden Age westerns have never been "hot" as far as I know. There are genres of Golden Age books that you can get for cheap and may have trouble selling for what you paid. That is why I said "prime" Golden Age. You know, the popular stuff that most collectors actually want?

 

'Most' collectors want?

Is that how you define hot?

What about a book you put on eBay that sells within 15 minutes?

I did that with a Rawhide Kid #8 the other day.

Is that a book 'most' collectors want?

Is that hot or not?

 

Put a Kid Colt #3 (1948) in vfnm on eBay at a FM price and it'll sell in heartbeat.

Is that a book 'most' collectors want?

Is that hot or not?

 

Aren't those Westerns?

 

 

 

There are definitely collectors out there for just about every genre or era of comics. I'm not saying people don't collect westerns. As you said, if you list a VF/NM Kid Colt #3 at a Fine price, yeah, it's probably going to sell pretty quickly. You'd probably even be able to get full guide, or more if the book is slabbed, for a book like that. Even in the "less glamorous" genres (meaning not superhero or horror/sci-fi) you still see books selling for above guide. Look at the Matt Baker romance books or high-grade Golden Age westerns. Many can be next to impossible to find, especially in high grade. There are buyers out there, and they're the type of buyers who will probably buy more if prices crashed because they're probably not buying those books expecting to get a huge return on them. They're buying them because they like them.

[CongoBill]

Sad because I liked the Dredd remake. The actor that played him is highly underrated IMO.

 

 

Yeah, Dredd was great fun. I know the actors were trying to drum up support for a sequel but not sure if that worked out. I guess it didn't. It's a shame more people didn't see that movie.

Yeah I like Karl Urban and his tv show Almost Human was top notch too yet got the mat pulled out from under it too. He can't seem to catch a break but he has mad acting skills.

 

 

Well, he is Bones in the new Star Trek franchise and was also in the Lord of the Rings films, so I think he's doing just fine despite a couple of setbacks (that he was probably still paid quite well to do).

[CongoBill]

So if the crash comes,than what kind of crash are we talking about?

Modern comics sales crash?

Movie hyped comics crash?

Superheroes comic book movies crash?

The CGC modern 9.8 crash?

The SIG crash?

The variant cover crash?

The OA crash?

 

If there was a crash it be far different then the 1990s which basically was a bunch of people buying multiple copies of new comics and flipping them for a higher price.

 

Things are so vastly different now. There would not be one whole crash across the board, maybe one or two categories which would be absorbed by the remaining unaffected categories.

 

Basically, 1990s bubble and crash will never happen again because it can`t.

New ballgame and new players.

 

 

 

 

I think the speculator market crashes all the time, but unless you're a speculator trying to flip books then you probably don't notice. I sold a Sixth Gun #1 in VF/NM that I had bought for cover price off the stands for around $350 a year or two ago. I had no idea it was a "hot" comic (well, then it was) until I stumbled upon copies selling for hundreds on eBay. My copy was in my box of stuff that I return to my LCS for 25 cents a copy for store credit. Now I see the highest priced copy of Sixth Gun #1 on eBay is a CGC 9.8 copy priced as a BIN for $260 and there doesn't seem to be any buyers. So the guy who bought my copy is certainly hurting, unless he flipped it and sold it to some other fool for more. And if you look in the "Modern Comics Heating up on eBay" thread here on this forum, you may see the speculators there lamenting about how burned they got by the series "Bedlam," which I assume a bunch of them speculated on. I guess that didn't really work out for them. Yet the speculator market still seems to be plenty vibrant! But you sure gotta know when to flip if you're going to stay above water in that market.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

Given that a few of the New 52 #1 issues go for quite a premium, what sort of speculation do you think we're going to see on whatever comes out of Secret Wars?

[Invincifans]

Given that a few of the New 52 #1 issues go for quite a premium, what sort of speculation do you think we're going to see on whatever comes out of Secret Wars?

 

New 52 was an, as of now, one time thing with new number #1's. Most Marvel books have already had a handful of #1's for each character, so probably not as big an impact.

[vaillant]

BTW, there are not many Golden Age Westerns I believe… Westerns became popular during the following decade… more Atomic Age, I would say.

[mysterio]

So if the crash comes,than what kind of crash are we talking about?

Modern comics sales crash?

Movie hyped comics crash?

Superheroes comic book movies crash?

The CGC modern 9.8 crash?

The SIG crash?

The variant cover crash?

The OA crash?

 

If there was a crash it be far different then the 1990s which basically was a bunch of people buying multiple copies of new comics and flipping them for a higher price.

 

Things are so vastly different now. There would not be one whole crash across the board, maybe one or two categories which would be absorbed by the remaining unaffected categories.

 

Basically, 1990s bubble and crash will never happen again because it can`t.

New ballgame and new players.

 

 

 

 

I think the speculator market crashes all the time, but unless you're a speculator trying to flip books then you probably don't notice. I sold a Sixth Gun #1 in VF/NM that I had bought for cover price off the stands for around $350 a year or two ago. I had no idea it was a "hot" comic (well, then it was) until I stumbled upon copies selling for hundreds on eBay. My copy was in my box of stuff that I return to my LCS for 25 cents a copy for store credit. Now I see the highest priced copy of Sixth Gun #1 on eBay is a CGC 9.8 copy priced as a BIN for $260 and there doesn't seem to be any buyers. So the guy who bought my copy is certainly hurting, unless he flipped it and sold it to some other fool for more. And if you look in the "Modern Comics Heating up on eBay" thread here on this forum, you may see the speculators there lamenting about how burned they got by the series "Bedlam," which I assume a bunch of them speculated on. I guess that didn't really work out for them. Yet the speculator market still seems to be plenty vibrant! But you sure gotta know when to flip if you're going to stay above water in that market.

 

These examples are individual books that have fallen out of favor, not a market crash. Folks just abandoned these books/titles for another, hotter book. When there isn't another spec book or title to jump into for flips, but the entire well has run dry, that will be the market crash.

[Lonzilla]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

 

In real money terms they do not always go up. How are GA westerns doing?

 

Golden Age westerns have never been "hot" as far as I know. There are genres of Golden Age books that you can get for cheap and may have trouble selling for what you paid. That is why I said "prime" Golden Age. You know, the popular stuff that most collectors actually want?

 

'Most' collectors want?

Is that how you define hot?

What about a book you put on eBay that sells within 15 minutes?

I did that with a Rawhide Kid #8 the other day.

Is that a book 'most' collectors want?

Is that hot or not?

 

Put a Kid Colt #3 (1948) in vfnm on eBay at a FM price and it'll sell in heartbeat.

Is that a book 'most' collectors want?

Is that hot or not?

 

Aren't those Westerns?

 

 

 

There are definitely collectors out there for just about every genre or era of comics. I'm not saying people don't collect westerns. As you said, if you list a VF/NM Kid Colt #3 at a Fine price, yeah, it's probably going to sell pretty quickly. You'd probably even be able to get full guide, or more if the book is slabbed, for a book like that. Even in the "less glamorous" genres (meaning not superhero or horror/sci-fi) you still see books selling for above guide. Look at the Matt Baker romance books or high-grade Golden Age westerns. Many can be next to impossible to find, especially in high grade. There are buyers out there, and they're the type of buyers who will probably buy more if prices crashed because they're probably not buying those books expecting to get a huge return on them. They're buying them because they like them.

 

ME Ghost Rider, especially the Frazetta issues, always pricey and sought after