Tracking the invisible hand of the market... 1 1

[Shrevvy]

I guarantee if they made a solo Venom movie it would beat the Fantastic Four movie at the box office.

 

I guarantee if Marvel Studios (not Fox) made (insert random Marvel character) movie, it will beat the Fantastic Four at the box office.

[romanheart]

I guarantee if they made a solo Venom movie it would beat the Fantastic Four movie at the box office.

 

I guarantee if Marvel Studios (not Fox) made (insert random Marvel character) movie, it will beat the Fantastic Four at the box office.

 

[Gatsby77]

I. Great chart!! Really interesting way of looking at the market.

 

II. Does Star Wars # 1 (regular) qualify for inclusion yet? I have a sneaking suspicion that the combination of its incredibly high print run and relatively high price this year would make it chart-worthy -- maybe even at the ASM 300 level.

 

But this is also a quick & dirty check on my understanding:

 

It's 3,479 copies x 9.00 average grade x $191 GPA per CGC 9.0.

 

If I understand your reasoning, that puts it at just shy of $665k, so it doesn't hit the minimal $1 million threshold, right?

[valiantman]

I. Great chart!! Really interesting way of looking at the market.

 

II. Does Star Wars # 1 (regular) qualify for inclusion yet? I have a sneaking suspicion that the combination of its incredibly high print run and relatively high price this year would make it chart-worthy -- maybe even at the ASM 300 level.

 

But this is also a quick & dirty check on my understanding:

 

It's 3,479 copies x 9.00 average grade x $191 GPA per CGC 9.0.

 

If I understand your reasoning, that puts it at just shy of $665k, so it doesn't hit the minimal $1 million threshold, right?

You've got it right.

 

I've got Star Wars #1 at 3,751 copies (I include Signature Series, since they're Universal-plus).

I've got the average CGC 9.0 valued at $200, which puts the number at $750K, or a 0.75 Index.

 

Star Wars #1 is 12th behind Marvel Comics #1 (among those not making the list), just below Batman Adventures #12.

Wolverine #1 Limited-Series (1982) is 13th, right behind Star Wars #1.

The closest to Marvel Comics #1 at the bottom of the list is Sensation Comics #1 which has a 0.98 Index.

 

[Hollywood1892]

On 6/26/2015 at 4:44 PM, valiantman said:

Six years ago, I proposed the idea of "market cap" for CGC slabbed comics.

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=3277046&fpart=1

 

The general idea is that the total number of slabs for a book multiplied by the market price for that book gives you a "total market cap" (capitalization) for a comic.

 

The true market cap would be the value of all 10 plus the value of all 9.9 plus the value of 9.8 plus the value of all 9.6 plus the value of all 9.4, etc.

Let's make our lives easier and estimate the market cap by using the value of the average graded copy and multiplying by the number slabbed.

It's not perfect, but it's a heckuvalot easier than trying to figure out every price for every grade based on actual sales and rough estimates for the gaps where there are no recent sales at certain grades.

 

What is of particular interest about this idea is that it appears to reflect the "general concensus" (invisible hand?) of the market when it comes to "total value" for a comic situation, such as a first appearance.

This is true even when comics have vastly different CGC census numbers and vastly different CGC market prices.

 

For example:

 

Amazing Fantasy #15 has 1,727 copies graded as Universal or Signature Series.

The average grade is CGC 3.7, and the average Universal price for CGC 3.7 (between 3.5 and 4.0) would be about $11,000.

Multiply $11,000 by 1,727 copies and you get $18,997,000 as a rough estimate of the "market cap" for 1st appearance of Spider-man.

 

Action Comics #1 has 36 copies graded as Universal (no Signature Series).

The average grade is 4.25 and the average Universal price for CGC 4.25 is about $500,000.

Multiply $500,000 by 36 and you get $18,000,000 as a rough estimate of the "market cap" for 1st appearance of Superman.

 

Despite the ridiculously different number of slabs (1,727 vs 36), and the ridiculously different prices for an average copy ($11,000 vs. $500,000), the first appearance of Spider-man has essentially the same "total market value" as the first appearance of Superman.

 

Does this make sense? I think so.

Doesn't the market (and the general public) recognize Spider-man and Superman at about the same popularity? Yes --- it's easy to argue who is more popular, Spider-man or Superman. They're about 50/50.

 

What about Batman, you ask?

 

Let's check.

 

There are 31 Universal graded copies of Detective Comics #27 with an average Universal grade of 4.76.

The average Universal price for CGC 4.76 (between 4.5 and 5.0) would be about $550,000.

Multiply $550,000 by 31 and you get... $17,050,000.

 

So, when it comes to this rough market cap calculation, that's:

 

1st appearance of Spider-man = $19,000,000.

1st appearance of Superman = $18,000,000.

1st appearance of Batman = $17,000,000.

 

Makes sense to me... the "invisible hand of the market" values all 3 first appearances roughly the same.

If someone believes that Batman should be $18,000,000 or $19,000,000 then the market price of the average copy of Detective Comics #27 is too low (in their opinion).

The $550,000 average should $580,000 to $613,000, if the total value should be equal to Superman or Spider-man.

 

If someone else believes that Spider-man should be less than Superman and Batman, let's say, they think it should be $16,000,000, then the market price of the average copy of Amazing Fantasy #15 should be $9,265... instead of $11,000.

 

Of course, the number of copies on the CGC census is very important.

If there were two more average copies of Detective Comics #27 added to the census, the total value would be $18,000,000...

even though the average price would not be changing.

 

For Amazing Fantasy #15 to increase its total value from $19,000,000 to $20,000,000...

we need to see the CGC census grow by 91 average copies with no change to the market price... OR...

we need to see the market price of an average copy go from $11,000 to $11,580.

 

At any rate, I'm amazed that the TOP 3 characters' first appearances are basically the same total market value.

Despite the difference in age between Amazing Fantasy #15 and Action #1 and DC #27...

and despite the difference in the CGC census... the total market value is basically the same.

 

The invisible hand of the market has "spoken".

 

Here's what the "invisible hand" has to say about other important first appearances:

(notice the size of the gap between the Big 3 and the next 2, then a gap, then 2, then another gap, etc.)

 

 

If any of these look too low to you, maybe there is an opportunity to invest in a CGC graded average Universal copy at the current market price.

If any of these look too high to you, maybe the average CGC graded copy market price is too high and is due for a correction.

 

If anyone believes I've missed an important comic whose "market cap" would be high enough to make this list... post it here and we'll check it out.

 

(thumbs u

 

EDIT: Revised the numbers to correct for Signature Series Restored comics (removed them).

 

Added all comic books (even if they don't have a first appearance) which are worth $1,000,000 market cap (or more).

 

Added a chart from the revised numbers.

Brilliant 

I'm surprised I haven't read this yet, and it makes a lot of sense

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Brilliant 

I'm surprised I haven't read this yet, and it makes a lot of sense

It has too much math.  That's why no one responded in the past 5 years. 

[Hollywood1892]

6 minutes ago, valiantman said:

It has too much math.  That's why no one responded in the past 5 years. 

Math and money go hand and hand

[c_mkv]

1 hour ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Brilliant 

I'm surprised I haven't read this yet, and it makes a lot of sense

Wow....that is a really cool chart and a unique way of looking at a books value. Great find. 
 

Hope someone can update this chart....would be interesting to see where these books are 5 years later

[Hollywood1892]

19 minutes ago, c_mkv said:

Wow....that is a really cool chart and a unique way of looking at a books value. Great find. 
 

Hope someone can update this chart....would be interesting to see where these books are 5 years later

Agreed

We were discussing it based on ASM 300 recent surge

[Beige]

Blimey, people will be trying to sell shares in a book you can never physically possess soon.  

[Hollywood1892]

4 minutes ago, Beige said:

Blimey, people will be trying to sell shares in a book you can never physically possess soon.  

I see what you did there, it's like you brought the past to the present and merged it with the future

A paradox 

[Beige]

24 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

I see what you did there, it's like you brought the past to the present and merged it with the future

A paradox