The State of the Hobby (Stirring the Pot)?

[gambron]

So I guess this post is an attempt to stir the pot a bit but I am genuinely curious about what everyone thinks. A good buddy and myself have had many conversations about how the last several auction cycles have had such a poor blend of strong material from many of the key artists/runs. In addition it seems like ages since primo vintage material has shown up on the top dealer's websites with any consistency. All of this is in spite of what seems to be record prices on the occasional strong piece that does show up at auction (which always seemed to smoke out more material in the past).

 

Is there a lack of supply of blue chip material not already in tightly held collections?

 

Are most veteran collectors content with what they've accumulated (reluctant to both sell and buy) at today's prices?

 

Is the hobby desperately in need of new blood willing to pay stupid prices to rip prime pages out of existing collections?

 

Have we hit a dreaded nostalgic tipping point where silver and now finally bronze agers (who have been driving the market the past several years I think) have gotten to a point in life where retirement planning is more important than continuing to build a collection?

 

Were there comparable periods for other art markets?

 

Just seems like a bit of a stagnant, odd time at least in my 10 years of collecting.

 

Any thoughts? Theories?

 

Either way i'd hate to be starting out right now.

 

Looking forward to any responses,

 

Ken

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryDetail.asp?GCat=19201

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NelsonAI]

Ken

I think most would agree on a few points when talking about blue chip material:

 

- if I need cash, shouldn't I sell my lower tier items first and my blue chip art last? Even the dealers tend to hold on to the blue chip material for their personal collections.

 

- few collectors are liquid enough to buy blue chip material outright for all cash. With this, you see a rotation of money to lower priced material that are perceived to be bargains. This includes modern era art. It's easier to find and cheaper than vintage art.

 

- people collect different things. Not everyone collects "blue chip" material. I know plenty of people that only collect art related to war comics and avoid the more popular superhero genre.

 

- a person close to retirement may decide to liquidate his collection. As such, it may be another 10 or 20 years before you see blue chip material coming out to the market. It depends on whether the estate wants to hang onto some of the material.

 

Cheers!

N.

[Terry Doyle]

 

Have we hit a dreaded nostalgic tipping point where silver and now finally bronze agers (who have been driving the market the past several years I think) have gotten to a point in life where retirement planning is more important than continuing to build a collection?

 

Ken

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryDetail.asp?GCat=19201

 

 

I actually retired from work early (four weeks ago at age 58), thanks to selling-off a big chunk of my artwork collection in recent months to help fund this early exit.

 

Nothing new, there, as I'd been steadily releasing high-end items from my collection over the course of the past ten years to help fund a better lifestyle and (four years ago) a move to a bigger house in a nice area.

 

I'm still retaining a fairly decent collection (and collecting modestly-priced art), but when prices are reaching insane levels (for those that want to compete for the stuff), I'd sooner sell-up and put the proceeds to better use.

 

When you're young, you don't envisage ever letting this stuff go, but the older you get, as you realise nothing's forever, the more your priorities in life change.

 

 

[Legion564]

22 year old here and I just bought my first piece of original art this month. It was a modern cover and it took me a few months to save up for. I think with the younger generation OA isn't as significant or important enough to buy. I have a hard time convincing my peers to buy hardcovers or bigger formats compared to paperbacks even. But I think for the stuff you're talking about people are really content to have that art. If I owned a silver age or bronze cover I liked I don't think I would ever sell it.

[Peter G]

22 year old here and I just bought my first piece of original art this month. It was a modern cover and it took me a few months to save up for. I think with the younger generation OA isn't as significant or important enough to buy. I have a hard time convincing my peers to buy hardcovers or bigger formats compared to paperbacks even. But I think for the stuff you're talking about people are really content to have that art. If I owned a silver age or bronze cover I liked I don't think I would ever sell it.

 

I know I regret selling my art

[Legion564]

Well I guess I'm never selling these then. Don't wanna have to go hunting for it again.

[Khazano]

22 year old here and I just bought my first piece of original art this month. It was a modern cover and it took me a few months to save up for. I think with the younger generation OA isn't as significant or important enough to buy.

 

This was and has always been the case. I started when I was 17, Im now 32. Only within the last two years have any of my friends started showing a real interest beyond "wow thats cool" and into actually collecting themselves. At 22 its not easy to be financially disciplined enough to play this game. ( So kudos to you on your first cover.) BUT - The point Im making is, most people can't afford his hobby until they're in their 30s. That was true back then, its 10x more true today. Doesn't mean the next generation of collectors isn't here yet, they just can't afford to start playing yet.

[Eltanin]

22 year old here and I just bought my first piece of original art this month. It was a modern cover and it took me a few months to save up for. I think with the younger generation OA isn't as significant or important enough to buy.

 

This was and has always been the case. I started when I was 17, Im now 32. Only within the last two years have any of my friends started showing a real interest beyond "wow thats cool" and into actually collecting themselves. At 22 its not easy to be financially disciplined enough to play this game. ( So kudos to you on your first cover.) BUT - The point Im making is, most people can't afford his hobby until they're in their 30s. That was true back then, its 10x more true today. Doesn't mean the next generation of collectors isn't here yet, they just can't afford to start playing yet.

 

I agree. Almost 30 here, started more or less 6 years ago. The quantity of money I could afford to spend on comic art developped a lot in the last year (relatively speaking. I'm nowhere near being able to afford blue chip material, but the value of my collection more than doubled in the last year).

Plus, I would add our hobby is and has always been a niche. It's thus not surprising to not have any friends interested in art collecting. I personnally don't know any other collector in real life, the only ones I know and speak regularly to, I met them through internet.

So I wouldn't worry too much about the future of this hobby. The younger collectors are out there, appearing discreetly here and there (don't forget we usually hear older collectors the most on these boards because most new members tend to be shy when they arrive).

[Lago32]

Good to hear from some younger collectors....I am curious though - for those 22 and 30 year olds that are chiming in, what are you guys collecting? Modern art from your own nostalgic sweet-spot or are you looking to pick-up more vintage pieces that are possibly newly discovered?

[sierackij]

As one of those "younger" collectors, I definitely sway towards the modern. I stepped away from comics for a long while and when I came back I had no interest in reading the Gold or Silver Age stuff. Instead I gravitated towards the writing of Alan Moore, Frank Miller, Neil Gaiman, etc. This lead me to discovering newer creators in the medium like BKV, Warren Ellis, and Garth Ennis. As such, it's the art from these books that I seek to collect, not the costumed heroes of my childhood. I'm not sure if it's like that with a lot of collectors, but it does make me curious about what will happen long term in this hobby. Those classic pieces that are fetching premium prices now may not resonate with future collectors because they either don't know what it is or simply don't care. Personally, I can appreciate the value of a nice Kirby piece but I have no desire whatsoever to spend a fortune on one.

[vodou]

Personally, I can appreciate the value of a nice Kirby piece but I have no desire whatsoever to spend a fortune on one.

This is what some of us wonder/worry about. Who will buy our (in some cases voluminous stashes of) treasures at/near what we anticipate or expect (in purchasing power terms) based on the last few years of comps? Put those classic pieces back at 2000 or 1995 prices (again not nominally but purchasing power) and things equalize fast, there is "coolness" and speculative attraction to almost anybody that digs any comics (except maybe the female comics fans?!) But the decision to buy a starter house or a nice Kirby FF panel 1:1*...that really leans a certain way for most younger folks (that I've talked to), even in their early-mid thirties.

 

So if this younger thirties and under group isn't (necessarily) jumping in with both feet...who will? That's where we get the odd theories about Hugh Jackman and Chinese or Russian oligarchs. Clearly this hobby needs some fresh 'greater fools'

 

*Assuming an all-cash transaction - which is hardly the position of all collectors in that age group anyway.

[gambron]

Nice to hear some different thoughts and opinions. Perhaps the record prices we've been seeing on certain material the last couple of years is simply due to the lack of supply of blue-chip material hitting auction houses and dealer's sites. Would certainly make sense from a supply-demand, economics 101 standpoint. And when I say blue chip material i'm not only referring to trophy type pieces, I also mean A and A+ level interior pages and splashes from the popular vintage runs and titles.

 

Perhaps the odd, stagnant dynamic myself and others have observed is the result of the oa market and hobby becoming a bit more of a mature market. When I first came into the hobby 10 years ago it seemed like tons of guys were taking down strong pieces with great regularity and that continued for several years (and prices certainly weren't cheap). A day wouldn't go by when i'd log into CAF and see fantastic new pieces in the "daily most commented" section by Byrne, Miller, Perez, Romita, Kirby, Ditko, Adams, etc, etc.

 

Of course current price levels make it much more difficult for the masses to acquire such pieces not to mention being off-putting for newer collectors looking to get their feet wet. So at the risk of sounding like a broken record, perhaps the lack of "excitement" and "action" compared to years ago is simply the by-product of the market maturing and not declining demand or interest. I also think that fewer guys post their new acquisitions to CAF than years ago in an effort to preserve "freshness" which again seems like a symptom of a more mature market and collector base (and of course rising prices).

 

Perhaps this is creating the illusion of a lack of "activity" relatively speaking?

 

Just thinking out loud.

 

Keep the responses coming!

 

Ken

[AKA Rick]

I think much like how art collectors may not have a nostalgic connection to the "masters" of traditional artwork be it Picasso, Dali, Matisse, Van Gogh, Warhol or those from the renaissance like Goya, Dürer, da Vinci, Tintoretto, Raphael, and Vermeer, there's a certain point where some people will buy artwork for the prestige and the price tag with that perceived value is the main motivator, for status.

 

With comic art, I can easily see values going up with that same more historical demand.

 

You can go to any modern art museum or research sales precedent and quickly see that may pieces commands tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars by artists not known so commonly by the mainstream.

 

A lot of time some buyers purchase on what others think or are swayed by other opinions. Dare anyone insult renderings by certain artists on these boards and you'll get an earful (or rather an eyeful to read). Be it criticizing what others can possibly see in the works by Mark Schultz, Jeff Jones, Mike Mignola, Frank Miller, Jack Kirby, etc. Even Bill Watterson, Carl Barks, Bruce Timm or Charles Schultz. Yes, most want those pieces because of the values tied to them.

 

With the lore of comic books now tied to the mainstream, with original published artwork featuring characters like The Avengers, X-Men, Spider-Man, Batman, etc, it's easy to imagine years from now a continued demand for early works considered classic, be it 1st Appearances or epic story arcs adapted to film.

 

Despite not everyone who loves comics earning $75k/yr or more,there's enough out there who earn $250k/yr+ that will keep values from crashing and continue to support the hobby, I think.

 

I may be biased, but when I look at comic artwork, I see in part what is a document of history (be it a 1st appearance) as well as aesthetic beauty (much like how some art fans look at some modern artwork like this one by Mark Rothko that sold for over $75 million http://www.whudat.de/top-20-most-expensive-paintings-in-the-world/ ). It's not unreasonable for what some may discount as funny pages or cartoons to take a leap to a greater level of value when artwork featuring near blank canvases, paint splashes, flags, or even image swiping (like with Roy Lichtenstein - - where I think the original comic book artwork for images he was "inspired" by might be great speculative buys if you could find them)

 

I'm a bit more concerned with the more modern comic art which are tied less to storytelling and more about being pin-ups or splashes, but feel there's enough good material being produced to sustain the hobby for the long term.

[Khazano]

Good to hear from some younger collectors....I am curious though - for those 22 and 30 year olds that are chiming in, what are you guys collecting? Modern art from your own nostalgic sweet-spot or are you looking to pick-up more vintage pieces that are possibly newly discovered?

 

In the very begining at 17 I was happy owning ANY published page. Felt like I owned part of that hero. Tastes grew and change and I wanted the stuff I was nostalgic for pre-high school years. Death of Superman, Fatal Attractions, Infinity Gauntlet all come to mind.

 

However I literally picked comic books back up maybe a year later, as it was 2000 and Joey Q took over Marvel and ushered in that whole new era. I couldn't help but get swept up in it all and started collecting that. Ultimate Spider-Man became not only a collecting focus, but back then I was flipping the pages with Spidey in costume on Ebay for a tidy profit that kept my little collection going. And as the 2010's went on, I started being nostalgic for pieces from the early 2000s which has fuelled my drive for the last few years.

 

Personally, 15 years later, Ive gotten almost everything I want from the modern market and my eyes are slowly drifting towards the silver age market. I want a premium Kirby piece so bad!

 

Which also brings me to my next point... If Im any example, some of the younger collectors will also eventually clamour for the historical importance of silver age pieces as well as Jack Kirbys line work.

[vodou]

Personally, 15 years later, Ive gotten almost everything I want from the modern market and my eyes are slowly drifting towards the silver age market. I want a premium Kirby piece so bad!

 

Which also brings me to my next point... If Im any example, some of the younger collectors will also eventually clamour for the historical importance of silver age pieces as well as Jack Kirbys line work.

Good data point is opposition of my concern. Hopefully there are more of you. Certainly many 'veteran' collectors did the same, got our nostalgia taken care of and then started looking backward and to the sides (in my case - literally everywhere, starting with museums and area fine art galleries, then those places when I traveled, also Juxtapoz artists, then folk/indigenous, illustration and non-US all along, et al).

[vodou]

Despite not everyone who loves comics earning $75k/yr or more,there's enough out there who earn $250k/yr+...

Is this really true or even likely? I've yet to see solid demographics for comic collectors, forget about OA sub-collectors.

[Phill the Governor]

Despite not everyone who loves comics earning $75k/yr or more,there's enough out there who earn $250k/yr+...

Is this really true or even likely? I've yet to see solid demographics for comic collectors, forget about OA sub-collectors.

 

There are some deep wallets in comics and comic art. You would be very surprised who some of the top tier $$bag collectors are.

[Phill the Governor]

Personally, 15 years later, Ive gotten almost everything I want from the modern market and my eyes are slowly drifting towards the silver age market. I want a premium Kirby piece so bad!

 

Which also brings me to my next point... If Im any example, some of the younger collectors will also eventually clamour for the historical importance of silver age pieces as well as Jack Kirbys line work.

Good data point is opposition of my concern. Hopefully there are more of you. Certainly many 'veteran' collectors did the same, got our nostalgia taken care of and then started looking backward and to the sides (in my case - literally everywhere, starting with museums and area fine art galleries, then those places when I traveled, also Juxtapoz artists, then folk/indigenous, illustration and non-US all along, et al).

 

I would love to have a prime Kirby example.

 

But there's no way I would pay 20k for a cover let alone 80k+ for a splash. Even if I was raking in more $$. Some artists work is simply intimidating if I know that the best I can do for a few thousand dollars is a sketch.

 

Historical importance IS important, but it doesn't outweigh the combination of my nostalgia and price points. The main reason I collect modern art is because I can get primo pages for what I believe to be reasonable prices. I would rather have a primo modern example than a D level Silver Age page based solely on historical importance any day of the week.

[Khazano]

 

Historical importance IS important, but it doesn't outweigh the combination of my nostalgia and price points. The main reason I collect modern art is because I can get primo pages for what I believe to be reasonable prices. I would rather have a primo modern example than a D level Silver Age page based solely on historical importance any day of the week.

 

Just going by your CAF it looks like you're 5 years in and still focusing on your niche. 10 years from now, when you've got all the WD art you want, and its (hopefully) matured in value to allow you to play in more expensive waters, you may see the world through different eyes.

 

Once upon a time I had the exact same mentality. Now making the jump to SA art feels like the next step. Sadly as my income increases so does my tastes!

[AKA Rick]

Despite not everyone who loves comics earning $75k/yr or more,there's enough out there who earn $250k/yr+...

Is this really true or even likely? I've yet to see solid demographics for comic collectors, forget about OA sub-collectors.

 

There are some deep wallets in comics and comic art. You would be very surprised who some of the top tier $$bag collectors are.

 

Exactly... the stats in terms of auction results and dealer sales don't like.

 

You go to any comic convention and you can see top current work by Adam Hughes, J. Scott Campbell and other artists sell for $4k+ without buyers flinching on peeling out the cash, all while others right behind 'em wished they were there first for the buying opportunity.

 

A lot of comic book, and more specifically art collectors have disposable income with flexibility in what they spend or invest in, in speaking to many of my peers who may not have the huge overhead nor obligations of family (wives and kids) or have well compensated jobs that affords them the luxury of buying artwork.