"Speculating" in the age of second printings

[drotto]

I was curious how people feel that the new smaller print runs and willingness to go to second printings quickly has and will effect the value of possible key books moving forward. As of now in 90% plus of cases the 1st printing is the thing to have. Will this always be the case? I know from the industry point (and collecting standpoint) this is a much better situation than the large horded print runs of the 90's. But with multiple print runs if we are just collecting the story we can easily get it.

 

Also there are known exceptions to this 1st print rule, like Captain Marvel 17 were the limited run second Ms Marvel cover in in higher demand than the 1st printing. So is there a way of predicting those rarer cases when the second (likely due to cover varient), is the better to have?

[GLCBrad]

I was curious how people feel that the new smaller print runs and willingness to go to second printings quickly has and will effect the value of possible key books moving forward. As of now in 90% plus of cases the 1st printing is the thing to have. Will this always be the case? I know from the industry point (and collecting standpoint) this is a much better situation than the large horded print runs of the 90's. But with multiple print runs if we are just collecting the story we can easily get it.

 

Also there are known exceptions to this 1st print rule, like Captain Marvel 17 were the limited run second Ms Marvel cover in in higher demand than the 1st printing. So is there a way of predicting those rarer cases when the second (likely due to cover varient), is the better to have?

 

There are certainly instances throughout ages where the second (or third) printing is the more desirable...

 

Hulk 377

Walking Dead 100

 

Those two spring to mind, but I think that there are many more.

 

 

[drotto]

For WD 100, I actually purchased the Adlard sketch variant 1:200, for the very reason that I knew it would be a key issue, but the press run was somewhere around 375000. By getting this varient, at least I know less than 2000 exist.

 

And that is an interesting addition to this topic. What second, third, etc are more desirable?

[Doktor]

I think UXM 221 So Much Fun (2nd printing) is more desirable than just the 1st printing (though they're both desirable, being Mr Sinister's 1st appearance)

 

I know there's GI Joe 63 So Much Fun that's more desirable than the standard 1st printing.

 

As mentioned, IH 377 3rd printing (though I even kinda like the 2nd the most)

 

Do you count things like convention variants that are printed long after the regular issue is out as later printings?

 

I think the ASM 300 Chromium/Marvel Collectible Classics is more desirable than even the normal ASM 300, and that was printed like 10-15 years after the original, so I'd call that a reprint.

[dpiercy]

2nd printings being valuable are usually the exception. The cover has to be very cool.

[drotto]

I have trouble deciding what to do with convention issues. A few years ago I grabbed 10 issues of the NYCC Walking Dead Sketch variant (I know nowhere near what WD 1 is, not even a contest). I SS them with Kirkman and Moore and had 5 9.8's. I resold 4 of those and kept one at over $100 per book. So basically double my investment. The five anticipated not 9.8's, I sold as raws on eBay for $25 each.

 

Most convention issues are 1st print variants in my mind if they are released same day, and reprints if it is years later. For instance the Mark Brook Spider Gwen is a first print in my mind as it came out same day as the real 1st print. The WD was clearly a reprint.

[jreezy]

I collect second printings if it's a cool cover or if it's Saga. Some people love them, some hate them.

[the blob]

walking dead 33 second print. nothing special, just a different color shade on the cover. $100+ book.

[jreezy]

 

I think the ASM 300 Chromium/Marvel Collectible Classics is more desirable than even the normal ASM 300, and that was printed like 10-15 years after the original, so I'd call that a reprint.

 

Which is a little nuts to me. I rather take a regular ASM 300 all day over the chromium. Just my opinion though.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

I think UXM 221 So Much Fun (2nd printing) is more desirable than just the 1st printing (though they're both desirable, being Mr Sinister's 1st appearance)

 

I know there's GI Joe 63 So Much Fun that's more desirable than the standard 1st printing.

 

As mentioned, IH 377 3rd printing (though I even kinda like the 2nd the most)

 

Do you count things like convention variants that are printed long after the regular issue is out as later printings?

 

I think the ASM 300 Chromium/Marvel Collectible Classics is more desirable than even the normal ASM 300, and that was printed like 10-15 years after the original, so I'd call that a reprint.

Things like the So Much Fun and ASM 300 Chromium I consider separate from standard reprints that are issued immediately after a sellout of a new book. Focusing just on those, the later Death of Superman printings have their collectors, and some of the new Valiant reprints have very low numbers and new covers.

[revat]

I think its great that there's so many choices for people to collect what and how they like. Let the players play, I say! I personally like it when its a similar cover but a different color background (or some other items) for the reprints, then you can put them together (especially if there's 3rd or 4th prints) and display in a fun way. Not something I'd pay a huge premium for, but still pretty fun to me.

 

But I certainly have benefitted from hunting out rare reprints for low prices and flipping them to completionist collectors, and am very grateful for the opportunity (and hopefully future opportunities).

[ygogolak]

I was curious how people feel that the new smaller print runs and willingness to go to second printings quickly has and will effect the value of possible key books moving forward. As of now in 90% plus of cases the 1st printing is the thing to have. Will this always be the case? I know from the industry point (and collecting standpoint) this is a much better situation than the large horded print runs of the 90's. But with multiple print runs if we are just collecting the story we can easily get it.

 

Also there are known exceptions to this 1st print rule, like Captain Marvel 17 were the limited run second Ms Marvel cover in in higher demand than the 1st printing. So is there a way of predicting those rarer cases when the second (likely due to cover varient), is the better to have?

Yes, but I'm going to need next weeks lottery numbers before I give up the secret.

[CBT]

I was curious how people feel that the new smaller print runs and willingness to go to second printings quickly has and will effect the value of possible key books moving forward. As of now in 90% plus of cases the 1st printing is the thing to have. Will this always be the case? I know from the industry point (and collecting standpoint) this is a much better situation than the large hoarded print runs of the 90's. But with multiple print runs if we are just collecting the story we can easily get it.

 

Also there are known exceptions to this 1st print rule, like Captain Marvel 17 were the limited run second Ms Marvel cover in in higher demand than the 1st printing. So is there a way of predicting those rarer cases when the second (likely due to cover variant), is the better to have?

 

its very rare that a second printing has any value. The speculative chase of the last few years has definitely amplified their prices. I think many of the people who are so caught up in print runs and "rarity" are forgetting that rarity(supply) doesn't make value in a vacuum, demand (with low supply) does. You need SUPPLY AND DEMAND to work together to get real value.

 

I think a lot of it is no different than the 90s hoarding. People got burned last time (the 90s) by focusing on demand (and expectations of future demand) at the exclusion of supply(rarity). When demand dried up, the high amount of supply crushed the value.

 

Now, history is repeating, but with the "lessons" learned. Instead of focusing on demand, people are focusing on the supply (rarity). Actively seeking out low value "overlooked" books and buying them up, then either talking them up to manufacture demand, or using potential movie and tv optioning (gambling) possibilities to create demand.

 

Same error as the 90s, other side of the coin.

 

If its rare but no one wants it, its doesn't matter the size of the print run. When the speculation rolls over (and it will eventually), a lot of people chasing manufactured rarity are going to get burned and burned bad. So much of the modern market is speculators selling to speculators, when the music stops, they are all going to try and exit at the same time and prices will fall to 0 on a LOT of stuff.

[Doktor]

In fairness though, with a lower supply, there's going to be less bags being held when the musical comics game comes to an end than there were in the 90's. Granted, they're 4X the price at even cover than they were back in the 90's, but still... folks holding fewer bags, even at higher prices, could cushion the blow.

[RockMyAmadeus]

For WD 100, I actually purchased the Adlard sketch variant 1:200, for the very reason that I knew it would be a key issue, but the press run was somewhere around 375000. By getting this varient, at least I know less than 2000 exist.

 

Contrary to oft-repeated misinformation, print run is not tied to "1:X". Those are distribution numbers, not print run numbers.

 

It's vital that people who make a foray into the world of ratio'd variants understand this.

 

The print run of a particular variant is in no way connected, other than establishing a potential floor, to the print run of the regular version, and never has been.

 

And that is an interesting addition to this topic. What second, third, etc are more desirable?

 

Batman #608 second printing, Batman #612 2nd, some of the early 90's books...

[ygogolak]

I was curious how people feel that the new smaller print runs and willingness to go to second printings quickly has and will effect the value of possible key books moving forward. As of now in 90% plus of cases the 1st printing is the thing to have. Will this always be the case? I know from the industry point (and collecting standpoint) this is a much better situation than the large hoarded print runs of the 90's. But with multiple print runs if we are just collecting the story we can easily get it.

 

Also there are known exceptions to this 1st print rule, like Captain Marvel 17 were the limited run second Ms Marvel cover in in higher demand than the 1st printing. So is there a way of predicting those rarer cases when the second (likely due to cover variant), is the better to have?

 

its very rare that a second printing has any value. The speculative chase of the last few years has definitely amplified their prices. I think many of the people who are so caught up in print runs and "rarity" are forgetting that rarity(supply) doesn't make value in a vacuum, demand (with low supply) does. You need SUPPLY AND DEMAND to work together to get real value.

 

I think a lot of it is no different than the 90s hoarding. People got burned last time (the 90s) by focusing on demand (and expectations of future demand) at the exclusion of supply(rarity). When demand dried up, the high amount of supply crushed the value.

 

Now, history is repeating, but with the "lessons" learned. Instead of focusing on demand, people are focusing on the supply (rarity). Actively seeking out low value "overlooked" books and buying them up, then either talking them up to manufacture demand, or using potential movie and tv optioning (gambling) possibilities to create demand.

 

Same error as the 90s, other side of the coin.

 

If its rare but no one wants it, its doesn't matter the size of the print run. When the speculation rolls over (and it will eventually), a lot of people chasing manufactured rarity are going to get burned and burned bad. So much of the modern market is speculators selling to speculators, when the music stops, they are all going to try and exit at the same time and prices will fall to 0 on a LOT of stuff.

 

While it's an interesting thought, you have no way of proving this and are thus "speculating".

[artistlost]

Saga #1 3rd printing seems to do pretty well

[drotto]

That is an interesting idea that today speculation could be the opposite side of the coin to the 90's, and to a large degree it is. Then we had inflated print runs based on falsely high demand. Now the companies print runs are much tighter and are closer ro actual demand, with the wrinkle over hyping small run variants. Will those variants hold value, I suspect a few of them will, but I can not see the premiums people are paying for something like AH Harley Quinn holding.

 

The other thing that is different is why is there increased demand. In the 90's we had non comic people with no knowledge buying large numbers of books. Today we have the explosion of "nerd" culture in both film, tv, and society. These are new fans creating new markets, and yes speculation . The possible coming crash will hinge on whether this sticks. I predict the current boom will hang on till at least the 4th Avengers movie, then things will get tricky. If these new fans stay, things will be ok. Today's speculation seems more like a roller than a cliff.

[AKA Rick]

2nd printings being valuable are usually the exception. The cover has to be very cool.

 

Yeah, I see that "Edge of Spider-Verse #2" 1st App of Gwen Stacey as Spider-Woman a.k.a. "Spider-Gwen" has many reprints (2nd printings and beyond).

 

To me there's only two (2) comics that should be acknowledged for that title as being the 1st appearance, the Rodriguez standard cover and the Greg Land variant cover released the same date, and everything subsequent to the initial release is simply a reprint and should be blatantly cited as such (does CGC put "release dates" on their labels to differentiate these subsequent releases BTW?)

 

I think 2nd printing and when they're marketed as "Variants" is just like how used car dealers started calling their inventory "previously owned" and a fancy way of making what's being sold seem more desirable.

 

I think some reprints and variants do have shorter / smaller print runs than the original release, but in my old school heart, I still think that the original release would have the greatest demand and prestige and if you were lucky enough to buy it when it was released, you should be rewarded and it's often disheartening to see these reprints come out afterwards, taking part of the fun away from collecting. The collected edition/TPB's sort of did the same thing to the back-issue market.

 

I liked it when a publisher would release a comic once with one cover and move onto the next issue and not try to exploit the popularity by flooding the market with reprints, variants, etc. and making it fun to chase back issues, even if they're expensive... and also when the numbering of series meant something rather than all of these #1 reboots.

 

 

[CBT]

While it's an interesting thought, you have no way of proving this and are thus "speculating".

 

There are many ways to demonstrate it, all of which take time, and arent worth doing. People can act based on their perspectives. Ultimately the truth will assert itself indisputably, regardless of what people think