$100k to spend AF15 or restored tec27

[Spiderturtle]

Since the heritage tec 27 is coming up, a good debate: if you had $100k to spend on any combo of af15 ( 8-3.0s, 2-7.0s, etc...). Would you rather spend on 1 restored tec 27 or have $100k in af15s.

[jaybuck43]

Am I looking for value (i.e. to turn the best profit)? If so then I want to maximize as many lower grade Blue label AF 15's as I can get (I'm thinking 8-10 2.0/3.0's)

[Gotham Kid]

tec 27

 

AF15s come around every month. They can be found everywhere.Tec 27, well there are a total of 64 copies graded. Nuff said.

[jaybuck43]

Peter, I agree with you 100%, for personal collecting I am taking a tec 27 every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But if I am trying to turn the highest profit (aka I'm a dealer with 100k to spend) I gotta go with the AF 15s because I can get more of them and thus a slight price bump gives me a higher return because it's that slight price bump times 8 (or more) Just my

[kinzebac]

Tec 27 all day.

[maraxusofkeld]

The Tec 27 is out of reach for most people, if you purchased multiple low grade AF15's even with a large percentage increase would still be doable for most collectors.

[valiantman]

Purchase the AF 15s, sell as many of them as it takes to earn $100K back.

Buy a 'Tec 27 with the $100K and keep the leftover AF 15s.

[dannyboy]

Am I looking for value (i.e. to turn the best profit)? If so then I want to maximize as many lower grade Blue label AF 15's as I can get (I'm thinking 8-10 2.0/3.0's)

 

Serious question - not being snarky. Are lower grade AF15s appreciating at a faster rate than higher grade copies? If not, it doesn't really matter what grades you buy I would think.

[jaybuck43]

Am I looking for value (i.e. to turn the best profit)? If so then I want to maximize as many lower grade Blue label AF 15's as I can get (I'm thinking 8-10 2.0/3.0's)

 

Serious question - not being snarky. Are lower grade AF15s appreciating at a faster rate than higher grade copies? If not, it doesn't really matter what grades you buy I would think.

 

No snakiness detected.

2014 average on AF 15 1.8 5,087 2015 average, 6,500 increase= 27.7%

2014 average on AF 15 2.0 $5536. 2015 average, 9600. Increase =73%

2014 average on AF 15 3.0 8,040 2015 average 11,171 increase = 38.9%

2014 average on AF 15 6.0 $25,000 2015 average, 35,206 increase =40.8%

2014 average on AF 15 7.0 41,000 2015 average 46,955 Increase = 14.5%

2014 average on AF 15 7.5 $65,560 2015 average 67,750 increase =3.3%

 

[cloudofwit]

Am I looking for value (i.e. to turn the best profit)? If so then I want to maximize as many lower grade Blue label AF 15's as I can get (I'm thinking 8-10 2.0/3.0's)

 

Serious question - not being snarky. Are lower grade AF15s appreciating at a faster rate than higher grade copies? If not, it doesn't really matter what grades you buy I would think.

 

No snakiness detected.

2014 average on AF 15 1.8 5,087 2015 average, 6,500 increase= 27.7%

2014 average on AF 15 2.0 $5536. 2015 average, 9600. Increase =73%

2014 average on AF 15 3.0 8,040 2015 average 11,171 increase = 38.9%

2014 average on AF 15 6.0 $25,000 2015 average, 35,206 increase =40.8%

2014 average on AF 15 7.0 41,000 2015 average 46,955 Increase = 14.5%

2014 average on AF 15 7.5 $65,560 2015 average 67,750 increase =3.3%

 

How have the lowest rung on the totem pole, the .5s performed?

[jaybuck43]

Decrease actually from 14-15

[cloudofwit]

Decrease actually from 14-15

 

:thumbsup: Thank you.

[lou_fine]

Am I looking for value (i.e. to turn the best profit)? If so then I want to maximize as many lower grade Blue label AF 15's as I can get (I'm thinking 8-10 2.0/3.0's)

 

Serious question - not being snarky. Are lower grade AF15s appreciating at a faster rate than higher grade copies? If not, it doesn't really matter what grades you buy I would think.

 

No snakiness detected.

2014 average on AF 15 1.8 5,087 2015 average, 6,500 increase= 27.7%

2014 average on AF 15 2.0 $5536. 2015 average, 9600. Increase =73%

2014 average on AF 15 3.0 8,040 2015 average 11,171 increase = 38.9%

2014 average on AF 15 6.0 $25,000 2015 average, 35,206 increase =40.8%

2014 average on AF 15 7.0 41,000 2015 average 46,955 Increase = 14.5%

2014 average on AF 15 7.5 $65,560 2015 average 67,750 increase =3.3%

 

How have the lowest rung on the totem pole, the .5s performed?

 

Decrease actually from 14-15

 

Actually, not that surprising at all!

 

When the higher grade copies of key books move beyond the price range of most collectors, the real movement takes place at the lower end where it is still affordable to more collectors. Especially when they don't want to be left without a copy of the book, even if it's in lower grade.

 

It would also be better if you have price increases for a longer time period, say 3 years or so. A shorter time period such as only 1 year could be heavily skewed by just a couple of outlying sales. Any idea how the copies in 9.0 condition range and up performed, or were there no sales in this nosebleed grade range?

[jaybuck43]

Hey Lou. I chose 1 year changes for a very particular reason, looking to turn the largest profit as quickly as possible. I believe if we extended out the years you are 100% right and the numbers would change drastically. And no, no nosebleed sales in 2015 so no comparison possible.

[miraclemet]

depends on what Im trying to accomplish with the money.

 

make a splash? opening a new business and want to get some notoriety? Buy the 'tec. Are you cool with having the investment go up but have all that $$$ tied up in one book?

 

I'd personally rather diversify, even if its just from a multiple books are better than just one. Buy as many mid-low grade copies of AF15 as I can find. They'll appreciate too, they wont be as "ooo... ahhhh...:" as a 'tec, but when you need some cash, you sell one, and then you still have 8 more in the collection/inventory.

 

 

[Jordysnordy]

Decrease actually from 14-15

 

True but a bit misleading if you look at the 5 sales of 0.5 books in 2015.

5 GPA sales and 2 of where the same VERY UGLY book

 

 

This book sold 2x in 2015 for $3585.00 and then $3346.00

3 other 0.5s sold for

$4591.00

$4305.00

$4605.00

 

If you remove the 2 sales of this book, the 2015 AVERAGE price is actually $200.00 higher than the 2014 average.

So while the GPA data is helpful, one must look carefully at the data as all 0.5s are not equal and this does need to be taken into account when looking over the data.

[Iceman399]

Decrease actually from 14-15

 

True but a bit misleading if you look at the 5 sales of 0.5 books in 2015.

5 GPA sales and 2 of where the same VERY UGLY book

 

 

This book sold 2x in 2015 for $3585.00 and then $3346.00

3 other 0.5s sold for

$4591.00

$4305.00

$4605.00

 

If you remove the 2 sales of this book, the 2015 AVERAGE price is actually $200.00 higher than the 2014 average.

So while the GPA data is helpful, one must look carefully at the data as all 0.5s are not equal and this does need to be taken into account when looking over the data.

 

+1

 

Which is why I very much appreciate the extra lower grade numbers another place has instituted. Why should a book that has a very bad spine be in the same category as that book above.

[jaybuck43]

Decrease actually from 14-15

 

True but a bit misleading if you look at the 5 sales of 0.5 books in 2015.

5 GPA sales and 2 of where the same VERY UGLY book

 

 

This book sold 2x in 2015 for $3585.00 and then $3346.00

3 other 0.5s sold for

$4591.00

$4305.00

$4605.00

 

If you remove the 2 sales of this book, the 2015 AVERAGE price is actually $200.00 higher than the 2014 average.

So while the GPA data is helpful, one must look carefully at the data as all 0.5s are not equal and this does need to be taken into account when looking over the data.

 

This is a great point. I was just doing it looking at straight sales, not digging into it as deep as you

[lou_fine]

Are you cool with having the investment go up but have all that $$$ tied up in one book?

 

I'd personally rather diversify, even if its just from a multiple books are better than just one. Buy as many mid-low grade copies of AF15 as I can find. They'll appreciate too, they wont be as "ooo... ahhhh...:" as a 'tec, but when you need some cash, you sell one, and then you still have 8 more in the collection/inventory.

 

 

+1

 

Definitely my line of thinking also, especially the parts in bold above!

 

The other factor is that the 'Tec is restored which would make it less attractive when it comes to resale. In addition, the AF15 will always remain a "got to get" book from my point of view, even in lower grades as the HG's move beyond the reach of the average collector.

[kimik]

Am I looking for value (i.e. to turn the best profit)? If so then I want to maximize as many lower grade Blue label AF 15's as I can get (I'm thinking 8-10 2.0/3.0's)

 

Serious question - not being snarky. Are lower grade AF15s appreciating at a faster rate than higher grade copies? If not, it doesn't really matter what grades you buy I would think.

 

No snakiness detected.

2014 average on AF 15 1.8 5,087 2015 average, 6,500 increase= 27.7%

2014 average on AF 15 2.0 $5536. 2015 average, 9600. Increase =73%

2014 average on AF 15 3.0 8,040 2015 average 11,171 increase = 38.9%

2014 average on AF 15 6.0 $25,000 2015 average, 35,206 increase =40.8%

2014 average on AF 15 7.0 41,000 2015 average 46,955 Increase = 14.5%

2014 average on AF 15 7.5 $65,560 2015 average 67,750 increase =3.3%

 

This pattern is being repeated with a number of other keys. We are seeing a nice lift now in the 2.0 - 6.0 range for the bigger SA keys as the "affordable" range catches up to the higher grade copies.