Is The Comic Industry's Reliance on Variant Covers Sustainable? 0

[Logan510]

1 minute ago, ygogolak said:

You're dealing in unknows however. What is known is that at one time a book like Ms. Marvel #2 was probably sold for $100 max. out of the gate. Just like Incredible Hulk 181 was $0.25. Who is buying either for thousands and what is the future? Unknown. Is Wolverine a better bet, sure. But you can't buy a Hulk 180, 181 for $2k in 9.8. You can also buy a Hulk 181 any day of the week. Not so for a variant.

I understand what you're saying. Personally I would invest in a solid key of a 1st appearance over a manufactured variant no matter how rare it is, but that's just me.

[GM8]

2 hours ago, 1Cool said:

There will always be high price examples even in "dead" collectibles (ie rare upside down stamps, ultra rare beanie babies, a few ultra rare sports cards) but as a whole all of those markets are dead as a door nail.   A few variants would have been greatly accepted by most collectors but the sheer number of them is just overwhelming to almost anyone.  How many Star Wars 1 variants where there that people bought in force and how many are worth more then cover price now?  Not many from what I see.  The examples of variants (some 1:100 copies) that are worth $5 are endless whereas there is only a handful of variants that continue to hold their value let alone continue to appreciate.

The Star Wars 1 example is good.  That was way overdone and now 90% of them sit around for cover price.  The 1:100 or higher in the key issues can command a higher price still and that's the only ones I look for.  Any 1:100 is not interesting to me.  Key issue?  Then sure it can be.  Otherwise its just destined for the $1 bin.  I think in the long run that idea will stay true, if its not a key issue the rarity won't matter.

[SquareChaos]

22 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

Yes, people ask about keys ALL the time. Is this book going to keep going up (Hulk 181)? What's the future for this character (X-23)? etc...

No one questions the collectibility of a book they consider a key. It's sort of the definition.

 

What you're commenting on is something else. 

[1Cool]

14 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

You're dealing in unknows however. What is known is that at one time a book like Ms. Marvel #2 was probably sold for $100 max. out of the gate. Just like Incredible Hulk 181 was $0.25. Who is buying either for thousands and what is the future? Unknown. Is Wolverine a better bet, sure. But you can't buy a Hulk 180, 181 for $2k in 9.8. You can also buy a Hulk 181 any day of the week. Not so for a variant.

There will always be people debating if this or that modern variant book is $1,500 but those books are a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things.  The avalanche of 1:5, 1:10, 1:20 etc variants are what worry more.  Each of these was produced as an incentive that theorically were initially sold to someone at a premium due to it being a limited edition of the book and now almost all are $1 bin material.  Most of the regular issues are also $1 bin books but people probably bought those for a lesser price and the expectation was different.  It all just feel like those infomercials where the guy screamed about limited edition gem mint cards that all turned out to be garbage.

[SquareChaos]

19 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

You're dealing in unknows however. What is known is that at one time a book like Ms. Marvel #2 was probably sold for $100 max. out of the gate. Just like Incredible Hulk 181 was $0.25. Who is buying either for thousands and what is the future? Unknown. Is Wolverine a better bet, sure. But you can't buy a Hulk 180, 181 for $2k in 9.8. You can also buy a Hulk 181 any day of the week. Not so for a variant.

Again, rarity in and of itself does not drive desirability in a general market. It amazes me that people make statements like this. If I can buy a Hulk 181 every day of any given week, fine... If I can only buy NFL Super Pro every other day, I guess that means I should jump on it? 

[ComicConnoisseur]

4 hours ago, october said:

No, they are not good for the industry and I seriously doubt the current trajectory is sustainable. 

I'd also bet that most variant defenders are heavily invested in it, either collection-wise, speculation-wise or resale-wise. I don't think many objective observers think this craze is a good thing. 

These seem like short-term books and there is their strength. Flip them fast for profit. The danger is being the last group that gets caught holding them.

[FineCollector]

Is it sustainable?  I'd like to say no, but if it was going to die, I think it would have already.  I remember seeing two covers of every Superman and 1:10 variants of every JSA while I was still buying off the stands in 2009 or 2010.  I only picked one at the time, but plenty of people wanted both, and I don't see that tendancy going away.

[ComicConnoisseur]

3 hours ago, ygogolak said:

Ms. Marvel #2 CGC 9.8 - $1,892

Ms. Marvel #2 CGC 9.8 - $2,075

Wow! Walking Dead #1 money!

What does  Limited 1 for 50 Retailer Incentive mean and why do I think it is not as rare as it sounds? 

[ComicConnoisseur]

2 hours ago, 1Cool said:

There will always be high price examples even in "dead" collectibles (ie rare upside down stamps, ultra rare beanie babies, a few ultra rare sports cards) but as a whole all of those markets are dead as a door nail.   A few variants would have been greatly accepted by most collectors but the sheer number of them is just overwhelming to almost anyone.  How many Star Wars 1 variants where there that people bought in force and how many are worth more then cover price now?  Not many from what I see.  The examples of variants (some 1:100 copies) that are worth $5 are endless whereas there is only a handful of variants that continue to hold their value let alone continue to appreciate.

Basically the grails and keys of all hobbies have desirable value, and it`s knowing what they are and not getting stuck with the dreck of the hobbies.

[Buzzetta]

29 minutes ago, Logan510 said:

I understand what you're saying. Personally I would invest in a solid key of a 1st appearance over a manufactured variant no matter how rare it is, but that's just me.

Most collecting markets support this statement.  

With Baseball cards it was always the rookie card that deserved the premium.  There may be outliers, but people at the end of the day sought out and continue to seek out the rookie card. 

With Books it is the first printing, not the premium deluxe 50th anniversary leatherbound remarked edition with limited slipcase that usually holds value. 

I watched it with animation in the early 90's. People wanted limited editions hand painted recreations from Disney rather than go after the original production cels.  Their mistake... 

Of course there are outliers like in every aspect of life. But first appearances usually hold more value over the variant.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Examples of keys in other hobbies.

Hot Wheels The original Sweet 16 cars

Magic :The Gathering Power 9 cards

Tin toy robots "The Gang of 5"

all very desirable.

 

 

 

[darkstar]

6 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Wow! Walking Dead #1 money!

What does  Limited 1 for 50 Retailer Incentive mean and why do I think it is not as rare as it sounds? 

For every fifty copies of a book a shop orders they receive one copy of the 1:50 incentive cover. As rare as it sounds is a sticky wicket since:

a) nobody knows the print runs of variant covers or the process by which that number is calculated by DC/Marvel.

b) it is very easy for someone to rationalize that not many shops were ordering blank # of copies of blank title to qualify for the incentive variant based on their own anecdotal evidence which is usually limited to what their lcs does.

c) spec sites estimating print runs (down to the exact number even!) for the incentive copies. These numbers are then diarrhead across the internet and even make it into the titles of eBay listings!

 

 

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

4 minutes ago, darkstar said:

For every fifty copies of a book a shop orders they receive one copy of the 1:50 incentive cover. As rare as it sounds is a sticky wicket since:

a) nobody knows the print runs of variant covers or the process by which that number is calculated by DC/Marvel.

b) it is very easy for someone to rationalize that not many shops were ordering blank # of copies of blank title to qualify for the incentive variant based on their own anecdotal evidence which is usually limited to what their lcs does.

c) spec sites estimating print runs (down to the exact number even!) for the incentive copies. These numbers are then diarrhead across the internet and even make it into the titles of eBay listings!

 

 

 

Thanks for clarifying this for me. I heard this is the big issue with variants and that nobody knows the exact runs, maybe they are not as rare as they might be.

This happened with baseball cards back in the late 80s and early 90s. A couple of companies not named Topps would  print more than they were letting on or go back and print the so called rare cards of that era without telling people it was a second print.

 

[1Cool]

9 minutes ago, darkstar said:

For every fifty copies of a book a shop orders they receive one copy of the 1:50 incentive cover. As rare as it sounds is a sticky wicket since:

a) nobody knows the print runs of variant covers or the process by which that number is calculated by DC/Marvel.

b) it is very easy for someone to rationalize that not many shops were ordering blank # of copies of blank title to qualify for the incentive variant based on their own anecdotal evidence which is usually limited to what their lcs does.

c) spec sites estimating print runs (down to the exact number even!) for the incentive copies. These numbers are then diarrhead across the internet and even make it into the titles of eBay listings!

 

 

 

Don't forget the occasional mass blow out of unsold variants from the manufacture.  A manufacturer could possibly make double (for example) the number of variants then was claimed by sales and those copies don't get destroyed - they sit around until they get sold after the fact. 

[darkstar]

6 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Don't forget the occasional mass blow out of unsold variants from the manufacture.  A manufacturer could possibly make double (for example) the number of variants then was claimed by sales and those copies don't get destroyed - they sit around until they get sold after the fact. 

Yes, most well known probably being the Djurdjevic variant for Ultimate Fallout #4. More recently with the Daniel variant to Lois and Clark #1.

[aerischan]

1 hour ago, 1Cool said:

There will always be people debating if this or that modern variant book is $1,500 but those books are a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things.  The avalanche of 1:5, 1:10, 1:20 etc variants are what worry more.  Each of these was produced as an incentive that theorically were initially sold to someone at a premium due to it being a limited edition of the book and now almost all are $1 bin material.  Most of the regular issues are also $1 bin books but people probably bought those for a lesser price and the expectation was different.  It all just feel like those infomercials where the guy screamed about limited edition gem mint cards that all turned out to be garbage.

In fairness, 1:25 or less is typically $12-15 tops so around the cost of movie tickets in my area. I buy them if I like the cover enough to waste money. Otherwise, they're something I ignore. Anything 1:50 or higher is an automatic ignore since those tend to be at least $40 on the outset.

The open to order variants are actually harder for me to ignore since they're "just" $1.80-3.50 after discount.  

Edited March 14, 2017 by aerischan

[1Cool]

14 minutes ago, aerischan said:

In fairness, 1:25 or less is around $12-15 typically so around the cost of movie tickets in my area. I buy them if I like the cover enough to waste money. Otherwise, they're something I ignore. Anything 1:50 or higher is an automatic ignore since those tend to be at least $40 on the outset.

The open to order variants are actually harder for me to ignore since they're "just" $1.80-3.50 after discount.  

I don't think there will ever be a problem with people paying $13 for a variant since they like the cover better and they know the book is probably going to not appreciate and it's just a cool book for their collection.  But how many people get "suckered" into buying the $15 copy since the store owner has the book on the back wall with big "1:25 variant" on the bag.  They buy a short box of these type of books over a year and then gripe on Facebook when they go to sell a few.  Would they gripe less if they had paid $5 each for the regular cover?  Maybe but 3 times as quietly.

Edited March 14, 2017 by 1Cool

[darkstar]

47 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Thanks for clarifying this for me. I heard this is the big issue with variants and that nobody knows the exact runs, maybe they are not as rare as they might be.

This happened with baseball cards back in the late 80s and early 90s. A couple of companies not named Topps would  print more than they were letting on or go back and print the so called rare cards of that era without telling people it was a second print.

 

perfect example, just listed on eBay:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Scarlet-4b-Retail-Incentive-Variant-Only-50-produced-Bendis-Maleev-ICON-RARE-/201853281948?hash=item2eff64a69c:g:JhcAAOSw32lYyEYe

[aerischan]

26 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

I don't think there will ever be a problem with people paying $13 for a variant since they like the cover better and they know the book is probably going to not appreciate and it's just a cool book for their collection.  But how many people get "suckered" into buying the $15 copy since the store owner has the book on the back wall with big "1:25 variant" on the bag.  They buy a short box of these type of books over a year and then gripe on Facebook when they go to sell a few.  Would they gripe less if they had paid $5 each for the regular cover?  Maybe but 3 times as quietly.

Interesting. My LCS's backwall is full of high priced statues and action figures, not comics. Ratio variants, if they carry them, sit on the shelves along with regular copies difference being the variants are bagged and boarded and have a price sticker.

[1Cool]

1 minute ago, aerischan said:

Interesting. My LCS's backwall is full of high priced statues and action figures, not comics. Ratio variants, if they carry them, sit on the shelves along with regular copies difference being the variants are bagged and boarded and have a price sticker.

I've not been to an actual LCS is quite awhile so I assumed they went back wall for the higher price variants.  Regardless, the bag and board with a price sticker gives the variant an air of superiority compared to the regular issues.  And I can't imagine some store owners are not further hyping their big money makers.