Silver Age: Slump, Surge, or Natural Selection?

[blowout]

 

I`m curious why you stop at early 1972. I think the HG glut continues from there onto present day.

 

There is a general feeling that books from the 1972/73 period are tougher to find in HG than the surrounding years. Particularly for Marvels.

[the blob]

not sure how you can really talk about a high grade "glut" when it comes to 60s and early 70s books. that high grade generally sells for at or multiples of guide (in a slab), doesn't sound like such a "glut".

 

there's a glut of copies of X-Men 1 (new series) or Harbinger 25 or Turok 1. go back further with a new mutants 1 or an alpha flight 1.

[joe_collector]

not sure how you can really talk about a high grade "glut" when it comes to 60s and early 70s books. that high grade generally sells for at or multiples of guide (in a slab), doesn't sound like such a "glut".

 

But at some point it has to reach critical mass. Many dealers and collectors are holding multiple copies of Silver and Bronze keys, and some are even buying additional ones or propping up the market by continuing to bid up certain books.

 

I am holding multiples of most Bronze books, and I know I have far-from the most extensive Bronze holdings on here. The last few weekends I've been going through the stash, pulling out dupes, Mylar'ing NM copies for my personal collection, seeing what might go to CGC, what may sell raw, etc. The sheer numbers I've accumulated over the years is insane.

 

If a lot more people are doing the same "collection re-evaluation" I am, then you'll definitely see a glut. It's never been a question of whether late-Silver/Bronze is out there, only of when the mass supplies will come to market.

[Sharkey]

not sure how you can really talk about a high grade "glut" when it comes to 60s and early 70s books. that high grade generally sells for at or multiples of guide (in a slab), doesn't sound like such a "glut".

 

But at some point it has to reach critical mass. Many dealers and collectors are holding multiple copies of Silver and Bronze keys, and some are even buying additional ones or propping up the market by continuing to bid up certain books.

 

I am holding multiples of most Bronze books, and I know I have far-from the most extensive Bronze holdings on here. The last few weekends I've been going through the stash, pulling out dupes, Mylar'ing NM copies for my personal collection, seeing what might go to CGC, what may sell raw, etc. The sheer numbers I've accumulated over the years is insane.

 

If a lot more people are doing the same "collection re-evaluation" I am, then you'll definitely see a glut. It's never been a question of whether late-Silver/Bronze is out there, only of when the mass supplies will come to market.

 

Exactly.

 

Joe, I know several guys who have HG late Silver and extensive Bronze collections similar to yours, who are getting their high-grade raw collections slabbed and are putting the books up for sale, because they feel it's finally "time to cash in" before the market cools off. I realize this is anecdotal evidence and not necessarily evidence of a true trend, but it begs the question that if I personally know 3 people who are doing this, how many others are out there thinking/doing the same thing?

[the blob]

and we all know people who are buying lots of this stuff, so what's the point?

 

glut implies more inventory than people want, hence my citation to some vastly overprinted 90s and 80s books. that isn't going to happen with what you're talking about. this stuff will all be bought up in HG, there's plenty of demand. maybe not at 6X OPG, but that's something else entirely.

 

Sometimes I wonder about quantity having such a huge impact in the face of big demand. I have several copies of FF 48. I sold a coverless copy for $35 and a copy with a cover, but that was being helped to stay on with tape and missing an ad page, for $49.99. "Good" guide is $53. Apparently, people are willing to pay over guide for this common book even in low grade. Granted, I don't have stories about high grade books because I don't have so many of them.

 

"There are too many copies of these books to support people paying high multiples of OPG for even high grade copies long-term."

 

I can live with that statement. Seriously, Ghost Rider 1 shouldn't be a $2K book, even if it's in super shape.

 

Remember, this paying multiples of guide for HG mid 60s - 70s Marvels and DCs (which, however you slice it, are not remotely rare books) is sort of a new thing that directly coincided with CGC.

[Sharkey]

My point is that at some point the supply will outstrip the demand and there will be some sort of market correction on books in the 9.4 range. I won't go as far as call it a crash, but at some point there will be enough high grade copies on the market that people are going to stop buying them, or at least stop buying them at multiples of guide.

 

Remember when CGC first came out, people would pay full guide or even more for even mid-grade copies that were slabbed. A FN 6.0 often brought close to VF price. That isn't happening anymore (except with some keys).

 

In the early 1990s everybody thought they couldn't go wrong buying pre-Unity Valiants because the print runs were so low. I know a lot of people who bought at the high point and got burned when the speculators bailed and all those "low print run" first issues of Harbinger flooded the market. Dealers and speculators had artificially propped up the market and prices but eventually the smoke cleared. I don't think that something quite as dramatic will happen with CGC graded 9.4s but I do think that the 1968-1972 9.4s will take a hit as more slabbed copies make their way onto the market.

 

I agree with you about Ghost Rider #1. If there was no Ghost Rider movie coming out that'd be a $200 book not a $2k book.

[joe_collector]

Joe, I know several guys who have HG late Silver and extensive Bronze collections similar to yours, who are getting their high-grade raw collections slabbed and are putting the books up for sale, because they feel it's finally "time to cash in" before the market cools off.

 

I hate to say it, but I'm starting to think I'm missing the party, and I don't want what happened with sportscards to repeat with comics.

 

I have an *extensive* childhood collection of hockey and baseball cards including multiples of all the key rookies (my dad was also a collector, so he bought them by the box for me).

 

So what did I do during the PSA madness when a Gretzky or Lemieux rookie (or even a Jagr) was selling for insane money? I didn't need the cash, so I just sat on them, and now that prices have tanked, I'll never have the same opportunity to unload them again.

 

Apathy be damned! I'm not gonna be sitting on boxes of Bronze keys while the comic market burns.

[sfilosa]

Quick Hits:

 

1) The summer time is usually a stagnate period. The biggest jump in prices usually occurs between Jan-Mar (the new gude effect?)

 

2) There are an abundance of HG (9.4 and up) books from the 1968 relaunch, with more and more being certified everyday. These books are very popular, but like myself, many collectors will sell those titles first, to fund other purchases (i.e. earlier issues or some non comic book related expense).

 

3) An FF #5 in CGC 8.0 sold for $3,200 on ComicLink about five months ago (I missed it because I only bid $3K). That same book just sold for $4,500. No slow down there.

 

4) Early SA is a strong as ever, but remember, there are actually an abundance of Spideys in HG, so to see tons of them on various websites is not unusual.

[the blob]

"My point is that at some point the supply will outstrip the demand and there will be some sort of market correction on books in the 9.4 range."

 

I don't disagree on that entirely. Some prices will likely go down, but I still think there are going to be buyers out there willing to pay reasonable prices, just not all out bidding war situations for some of the lower tier stuff. For the most part, excluding some "black cover" comics that may be really hard in HG, post-'68 books in slabbed 9.4 shouldn't be more than guide (which, of course, has been utterly confused by top guide being 9.2 now)+slabbing costs+a bit of a premium. fact of the matter is, it only really costs $3 to find out if your book is a 9.4 if you're a dealer/big collector or having collector friends who can do a pre-screen (i.e., you have enough of these books or can pool with a friend to dig up 50 potential NMs).

 

I'm just saying is that there will likely almost always be a buyer for this stuff in genuine certified 9.4 or better, at least mid-60s through '72. Raw is another story because people don't believe raw grades I guess I can think of a few low dollar value books where that may not apply, maybe some Gold Keys, some DCs and some marvels (horror, western) where even a 9.4 may not get you back your slabbing fees. That is, of course, a function of CGC charging WAY too much to certify, for example, a 20 cent cover price marvel,not that someone wouldn't pay guide if they knew they were getting a slabbed 9.4. I'm having trouble understanding why something from 1976 is so much easier to certify than something from 1974 to justify the price difference. I understand the cases are different sizes, but that's about 2 cents of plastic.

[joe_collector]

I'm having trouble understanding why something from 1976 is so much easier to certify than something from 1974 to justify the price difference.

 

It's pretty easy really:

 

Hulk 180, 181 and 182 were published October, November and December 1974.

[uclapeterg]

Didn't the modern tier not have a max value and CGC got sick of every other book being X-Men 94 or GS X-Men 1?

[the blob]

They could carve out a "we'll rape you to certify these particular issues:" clause and let hulk 171 get slabbed at a more realistic price.

 

i can understand charging more for golden age books with wacky page counts, or even later square bounds

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

It probably isn't the best time to Bump this thread, what with the Summer Swoon, rising gas prices, and Hurricane Katrina all taking a toll on recent buying activity in the marketplace, but perhaps it bears some examination. I'd like to get some feedback from SA collectors on how their spending habits have changed recently...buying more or less? Nervous about or confident in the market? Selling off books you really don't need or holding firm? Finding some deals out there or finding prices too high? Buying books that seem like deals or passing altogether? Have you seen a rise in the availability of specific material you collect, or have you witnessed no appreciable change?

 

Myself, I've been doing a bit of both selling & buying. I've been selling off remainder pieces of very high grade (CGC 9.0 or better) material and focusing my attention on getting below Guide deals on sweet looking 8.0-8.5 early FFs. Despite all the hubbub on the Boards recently regarding pressing, trimming, CGC missing restoration, and all the rest, I've managed to retain my love for the high grade material by bargain hunting.

 

I've also observed a continuing number of high grade early and mid-run Silver FFs being offered on eBay and sites like Pedigree and Comiclink at peak price points that take longer and longer to find a buyer (if at all). Granted, I'm sure its a matter of collectors wanting to protect their investment, but I'm noticing more and more items sitting.

 

Anyone else with some observations to share?

[g-man]

i am with ya on the 8.0s to 9.0s in the SA market...Been trying to snag a few ASMs in the 40s and the #9. Found some but hte prices are either too high or jsut not a ncee looking copy. I either take a show on the bay or wait to see if the seller will move on price. I not, there will always be another copy to come up eventually. Plus there are a few shows and I can email a few contacts to see if they have one or know of any. It is hard sometimes to be patiet but even worse is over-paying for 8.0-9.0s of certain books.

I am trying to make a few sales here and there to fund these purchases....having some success. Takes time.

And yes I have seen books sit for a long time on the usual sites. Hey if they want the books to collect dust, it's their call. I just move on down the line.

[sfilosa]

I'm still buying the issues I NEED for the runs that I'm collecting in HG (say 9.0 to 9.4). I've bought several thousand dollars worth of books the last two months, that are COLLECTION books.

 

I have also picked up quite of few books to resell, when I felt like they were somewhat bargains. All of these were in 9.4 or 9.6. I've had a little success selling them, but probably could have flipped them all for a 5-10% profit (after selling cost), if I really wanted to. But I figured that some of these will bring a little more in a few months.

 

I definitely believe that many non-key issues are trending down in 9.4/9.6 if it's an issue that is relatively easy to find.

 

Regarding dealers gluts, most dealers are not willing to drop their prices regardless of what books sell for on eBay or Heritage. Perfect example would be TOS issues from #80-98 in CGC 9.4. Many of these books sell for around $150-200 when auctioned off, but dealers continue to hold the $250-300 price tag, regardless of the fact that these issues are available all the time. Heritage has had a number of 9.6's go for less than $300 in the past few months.

 

Tough to find high grade issues will still continue to break records, while relatively easy to find books (even in 9.4/.9.6) will probably stagnate for a while, IMO.

[JuliusSeizure]

It probably isn't the best time to Bump this thread, what with the Summer Swoon, rising gas prices, and Hurricane Katrina all taking a toll on recent buying activity in the marketplace, but perhaps it bears some examination. I'd like to get some feedback from SA collectors on how their spending habits have changed recently...buying more or less? Nervous about or confident in the market? Selling off books you really don't need or holding firm? Finding some deals out there or finding prices too high? Buying books that seem like deals or passing altogether? Have you seen a rise in the availability of specific material you collect, or have you witnessed no appreciable change?

Personally, I've been passing on some pretty good deals lately, due to a confluence of factors including high gas prices, wedding (and other) expenses, and saving a few bucks for WizardWorld Boston at the end of the month. Someone was selling a F- Brave and Bold #51 on eBay for $33, and I know the listing went to the last day without a bite. Even with the shipping, you'll NEVER see that price at a con.

 

Having spent a lot on comics this year already, and with at least two more shows to go to, I've been hesitant lately, but I will say that I've seen some pretty good prices and availability, on eBay at least. I agree with sfilosa that most dealer prices do not at all reflect auction prices realized, even in the mid-grade market. For example, most online sites would be asking at least $70 or $80 for that B&B #51. Granted, the buyer's risk is somewhat lower and there's a premium to be paid for that.

 

There are a few listings I've still got my eye on -- but I'm going to get a great deal or none at all.

[john72tex]

I've slowed down recently(except for the Flash 105 I won on Ebay), but not because of gas prices or slumping economy. I'm savin' up for Wizard World Texas in November. If I spot a good deal on Ebay, I may still bid. I will not be as aggressive as these past few months.

[nik]

Speaking for myself, I have decided to be a little more focused over the next year.

 

I only need 4 issues of SS (9.0 or better) and that run is complete. I will be focusing on more OA over the next year, mainly splash pages with villians, and buy comics more through my LCS and shows rather than the internet as much as I have in the past.

 

I would normally buy any HG Bronze/Silver in bunches when I came across them regardless of title, issue number etc which added up to a little over $7k over the last 9 months. Thats not a bad thing either, but I missed a couple of nice OA pages because of it.

[Sharkey]

Yes -- focusing is the word. I am only buying 6.0 or higher pre-hero Marvel books that I need, and have been selective among those, passing on books I probably would have purchased a year or two ago hoping a better copy will come along (really going after 8.0 range books). I have purchased 2 comics online in the past month (though I did pick up a bunch of books at WizardWorld Chicago).

 

I am selling everything from my Silver/Bronze inventory and collection.

 

Of course, I continue to buy original art when a page I really like comes up for sale -- IF i can afford it (uh, I won't be bidding on the ASM 100 cover that is up for auction )

[sfilosa]

Speaking for myself, I have decided to be a little more focused over the next year.

 

I think that is the key to continue to enjoy the hobby.

 

I know when I start collecting again, I was buying lots of books that I liked but had no focus. Now that I have a few runs that are nearing completion, it helps me to not get pulled into other directions and to "see the light at the end of the tunnel".

 

It's become a Quest as oppose to just a Journey.

 

Plus, it's nice to buy books (or art) and know right away if it's part of your collection, or if it was bought because the price was good, and you feel you can make a quick profit. Before, every book was for my collection except when I felt that I could make a quick profit.