2003 Overstreet, what's going up the most?

[Bonds25]

Let's hope that Albedo #2 goes up. Fine copies are selling for $300, and they have it listed at $14 in NM.

[fantastic_four]

Clearly, certified books have been

selling for much more, but the market is still not mature enough for O'street to

reflect these integer multiples. If, Heaven forbid, CGC was to go out of business

tomorrow we'd instantly get a crash that would make all the Chicken Littles on

these boards proud. The good people at Overstreet have been around for a long

time and are likely to base their prices on short term worst case scenarios/ a

sustained growth policy. If this is so, I'd strongly agree with them: a gradual

increase is in the best interest of the hobby long term.

This assumes two things I strongly feel are incorrect assumptions:

 

• True uncommon (Early Silver and Gold) NM books didn't sell for multiples of Overstreet prior to CGC
• Overstreet has been getting accurate data from the advisors

Prior to CGC, dealers have been reporting sales of books they tell Overstreet are NM sales prices, but we now know those books were actually somewhere in the range of VF 8.0 to Mint 10.0, who knows where. The CGC market is different because it's a much more accurate one, with a much smaller margin of error, and one where the risk of restoration is comparatively minimal. But an unrestored NM book is still an unrestored NM book--comic-keys, as almost literally the last hardcore seller of ultra-high-grade NM Silver Age comics, wouldn't get the multiples he does if the market wasn't willing to pay multiples for a book perceived to be of a very high quality whether it's slabbed or not.

 

If Overstreet keeps dragging his feet on showing realistic prices for NM prices on Gold and Silver, he's doing a disservice to the people who really need the guide--people who don't watch the market like many people in this forum do. Original owners, ex-collectors who are out of touch with the value of their collections in the back of their closets, insurance adjusters, coin-and-card-investors, etc.

[mcd-migration]

The good people at Overstreet have been around for a long

time and are likely to base their prices on short term worst case scenarios/ a

sustained growth policy.

 

The only reason I think Overstreet may jump the prices, is that they have already basically changed their grading to try to fit CGC standards. That tells me that they have recognized & accepted the CGC influence on the hobby. If we don't see the spike in this guide, I agree that it will come in their new newsletter that they are preparing.

[fantastic_four]

If we don't see the spike in this guide, I agree that it will come in their new newsletter that they are preparing.

If you guys are right and the yearly price guide--the one the non-hardcore buyers are going to buy first--shows the prices as low, whereas the newsletter--which will be bought almost exclusively by close market watchers--shows the prices as high, then Overstreet is misrepresenting prices to the people who have the greatest need to see the fact that some types of true NM books sell for much more than current Overstreet NM prices!!!

 

We potential buyers of the newsletter have a rough idea of what NM books sell for because we watch the prices at auctions, E-Bay, and word-of-mouth on private transactions. But take as an example a very knowledgable dealer in my area who used to advertise in Overstreet during the 70s who is too stretched selling card, figures, and other stuff to follow what people are paying for primo books--he prices solidly by Overstreet. As a result of his trust in those prices, I've bought a BUNCH of unslabbed 9.2 to 9.6 Silver and Bronze books from this guy at Overstreet prices that would sell for many multiples of what I paid him. I feel guilty about it, and I wish Overstreet would report what those Silver books he still has are worth with a greater degree of accuracy.

[joe_collector]

It erroneous to compared CGC to non-CGC/Overstreet prices, except in the case of extremely high-dollar or rare comics.

 

For example, you could see a common CGC 9.4 going for $50 on EBay, but even if God graded his raw book 9.4, it would never come anywhere near $30. That's because the old $19 CGC fee + S&H + Insurance is in the back of the buyer's mind and the book is likely not for investment purposes.

 

Any comic under $200 NM Guide cannot be compared to their CGC counterpart, since the $25-$50+ CGC and S&H fees take up such a large percentage of the "perceived" retail price.

[fantastic_four]

Why do you think your fellow local store owners around North America are comparatively out-of-touch with market prices? Is there enough product for the thousands of dealers to compete with the type of business you did in Gold and Silver books? Did you used to have to carry all the card-figure-toy stuff that 95% of the store owners currently do to live comfortably?

 

I'd say you're a big exception amongst comic shop owners past and present...the majority of them don't know how to get the good stuff enough to keep up with what it's worth.

[fantastic_four]

Any comic under $200 NM Guide cannot be compared to their CGC counterpart, since the $25-$50+ CGC and S&H fees take up such a large percentage of the "perceived" retail price.

I agree with this--Overstreet shouldn't raise the prices across the board, just with the uncommon and in-demand stuff, which usually is worth over $200 NM.

 

If anybody disagrees, please sell me your unslabbed Fantastic Fours and Spideys from 1 to 50 that are in NM! I'll pay DOUBLE guide if you agree to take returns for overgraded or restored books!!

[joe_collector]

I'll tell you one reason why Overstreet won't be spiking the prices, and that's because they've always been the "Dealer's Friend" when it comes to buying collections. If prices spike rapidly in OS, then the guys paying "50% Guide" will need to pay out a ton more to collectors selling books, and take on a larger financial burden (or not buy the books) in case a market correction takes place.

 

Trust me, the dealers wouldn't want it any other way and will be reporting raw prices, not the whacko returns they get on CGC books.

[fantastic_four]

I'll tell you one reason why Overstreet won't be spiking the prices, and that's because they've always been the "Dealer's Friend" when it comes to buying collections. If prices spike rapidly in OS, then the guys paying "50% Guide" will need to pay out a ton more to collectors selling books, and take on a larger financial burden (or not buy the books) in case a market correction takes place.

That's what I'm afraid of...I hope you're not right!!

[Rickdogg]

I hope MTU #4 goes up. Guides for $50 in NM and sells for over $200 in CGC 9.4 The last two copies that showed up on ebay in the last year and a half were snagged by yours truly

[tb]

It is probably impossible to quantify how much of the increases are

due to eBay, CGC, and the symbiosis of the two. Clearly, eBay alone

justifies a considerable jump. My concern is that CGC's business

model still remains to be proven. If something bad was to happen

to them at this fragile time for certification, I cannot see why it

should have any different effect on our market than Enron, MCI,

Martha Stewart, ... had on Wall Street? Even though they

would surely be replaced by other services (CGG, ...), many

collectors would have been burned big time and it would take

years for the hobby to recover to the current levels. You know much

more about SA, but I am almost certain that you would be hit with

the same inventory writeoff that I would take. Suspect the post-crash

bargains that could be had would be more important for you as

well, but I am just as sure many other (spe-)collectors would

leave the hobby on a bitter note.

 

It is a tough call, but the reality is that you need to stay on top

of things if you want to make money selling back issues; especially

while the market is on a revolutionary transition curve. Until things

level off, I believe conservative increases is the lesser evil.

 

 

[ninanina]

I have heard from a reliable source (he's an overstreet advisor) that overstreet actually wanted to REDUCE back issue prices below the VF grade, to better reflect market conditions. Apparently pressure from the dealers made them decide not to. So, when joe_collector says they are the dealer's friend I would have to agree.

[fantastic_four]

I cannot see why it

should have any different effect on our market than Enron, MCI,

Martha Stewart, ... had on Wall Street?

It'll hurt for a little while--of course I don't care much because I don't sell anyway and may not for quite some time. But Enron's demise didn't make people start turning off their electricity; MCI's crash didn't make people think twice about making long distance calls; and Martha Stewart's investment problems haven't stopped people from decorating their homes or tending their gardens. Uncommon, popular books sold well before CGC, and they will sell well if it goes away. CGC's demise alone wouldn't kill the value of back issues.

[fantastic_four]

I have heard from a reliable source (he's an overstreet advisor) that overstreet actually wanted to REDUCE back issue prices below the VF grade, to better reflect market conditions.

ummm....errr....

 

hehe, OK, I'm gonna stop debating this one...if I shut up, maybe I'll stop having to be willing to pay 2 to 3 times guide for 9.0s on early FFs to even have a SHOT at them, and the prices will begin to "better reflect market conditions."

[joe_collector]

Ummm isn't VF equate to 8.0, so therefore "below VF" would be 7.5 and lower?

 

How would this benefit you?

[fantastic_four]

Maybe I'm not sure what he meant...the topic of the thread is NM prices. I thought he meant Overstreet wanted to reduce prices back to the VF level...I guess he was referring to the grades below VF now that you point it out.

 

I can't disagree with Overstreet on that one...they don't sell for Guide a lot of the time. Wonder what argument made him cave on that?

[joe_collector]

>>Wonder what argument made him cave on that?

 

Chuck sobbing on the phone?

[Crowzilla]

Wonder what argument made him cave on that?

 

The same arguement that has made him not do it at almost anytime in the past 30 years - to promote stability in the marketplace. We've had this discusion on another thread, Major Golden Age keys have never gone down in the guide (even though there were times when even books like Flash #1 had to be sold at a deep discount off of guide to move them), and Silver Age keys had basically one year where they had a $100 reduction in the top price of the big three Marvels (and then those new "lower" prices stayed the same for the next three years - and at that time they were also selling for a significant discounts off of guide.

 

FF - you say you will pay 2x guide for unslabbed NM early issues of FF and Spidey? Big Deal. Dealers like Keith Contarino (and I use him as an example as he's a very good friend, but many others could fill this blank) and I have been getting double guide and MORE for these early issues for well over a decade.

If these issues have been selling for 2x guide for a decade and the guide has never doubled before why would it now? You don't have to keep up with the market to know that high grade books can bring over guide prices, this is not a new phenomenon.

 

As for local dealers pricing their high grade books at guide - great. The fact is most stores do not have a significant high grade customer base to be able to support over guide high grade sales. The great majority of comic collectors wouldn't dream of paying over guide for a older back issue comic (something new like a Jim Lee Batman doens't qualify). Most stores, even if they had true 9.2 or better books would not be able to sell them in the store if they priced them at double guide or more.

 

As for dealers reporting sales for NM books and they were really anywhere from 8.0 to 10.0 - haven't we seen this with CGC also? Not just the regrade of the Marvel Mystery #2 from a 7.5 to a 9.0, but the constant examples of books we've seen get sent back in and the grade can move several spots in any direction.

A lot of the old grades have held up very well. Look at the early Sotheby's guides and see what grades the books were given, and then look now as they turn up in slabs - the variance is within the norms that we see with CGC all the time (and a good number of them are dead on). I believe that the books that dealers like Fishler, Payette, Contarino, and Veranault (and others who consistently deal with high grades) graded 10 years ago are just as solid today. When Keith first started to promote the virtues of Spidey #28 over the rest of the 20s (and yes, he was the first), he wasn't using overgraded VF 8.0s to guide him, he meant dead solid NM- and better copies were worth large multiples of guide - and they still are.

 

[delekkerste]

I'll tell you one reason why Overstreet won't be spiking the prices, and that's because they've always been the "Dealer's Friend" when it comes to buying collections...Trust me, the dealers wouldn't want it any other way and will be reporting raw prices, not the whacko returns they get on CGC books.

 

You're absolutely right about not Overstreet not biting the hand that feeds him by showing large price spikes to the upside and screwing the dealers. In fact, I wonder to what extent the prices shown are "smoothed out" and how much they actually reflect data returns from dealers. There are so many prices in the Guide that are simply fantasy (either way too high or way too low) that they cannot possibly be the result of pure, unadulterated, honest data collection.

 

Personally, I would rather see large swings from year-to-year if that is reflective of market reality. If you believed the Overstreet guide, comic books increase gradually from year to year with very little volatility. No free market on Earth behaves like that! If eBay stock jumps from $82 to $95 in one day, I damn well better see the Wall Street Journal print "$95" in their next edition and not "$82.50" so they can smooth out the volatility!

 

Of course, many dealers reprice their inventory according to some factor times the latest Overstreet guide, but I agree with JC in that this is like the tail wagging the dog. With eBay, ComicLink, etc., we're all constantly plugged into current supply and demand levels in the market and don't need to magically reprice our books once the new Guide hits the stands. If market conditions dictate that a book sells for 3x last year's Guide of $100 ($300) and the new Guide shows the book at $125, should we need to reprice the book to $375 (3x the new Guide?) Of course not - the new market multiple should simply be 2.4x Guide. And what about FF's point about new collectors - if newbies don't know what multiple of Guide is trading at, doesn't the Guide do them a big disservice? Shouldn't the Guide price books so that the market price is very close to "1x Guide"?

 

Just my point of view...

 

Gene

[fantastic_four]

FF - you say you will pay 2x guide for unslabbed NM early issues of FF and Spidey? Big Deal. Dealers like Keith Contarino (and I use him as an example as he's a very good friend, but many others could fill this blank) and I have been getting double guide and MORE for these early issues for well over a decade.

If these issues have been selling for 2x guide for a decade and the guide has never doubled before why would it now? You don't have to keep up with the market to know that high grade books can bring over guide prices, this is not a new phenomenon.

That was my point about paying double guide for FFs and Spideys--I was being sarcastic. You can't GET these books for less than double or triple current guide in NM, and that has always been the case from everything I hear. Local stores would have a shot of getting more than the current Guide prices if the Guide were accurate! Your average collector who doesn't buy vintage comics yet but who wants them would look at a book at double or triple guide and say, "what a rip-off! They're charging WAAAY over guide!" But if that's what the market yields...why is it a rip-off? It's not, but because the guide is way off on them, it makes it LOOK like a rip-off to the uninformed.

 

Maybe the guide should've doubled or tripled a while back. Don't you think many--not all, but many--of the NM price sales reported by Overstreet advisors were for books that weren't really in NM? And don't you think that's why customers who have always paid double guide or more were willing to do it--because they know how many dealers overgrade and how hard it is to get true NM or better books?

 

You don't have to follow the market on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis...but there are waaaay more than a few shop owners and dealers who don't have enough Gold, Silver, or key Bronze books passing through their doors to realize just how much true NM copies of those books can yield. That's why you were able to do so well--you knew, so you had a competitive advantage. Most shop owners can't even tell the difference between a VF and a NM, much less identify their 9.4s and 9.6s well enough to charge the higher prices. But once Overstreet adds that 9.0 column--and if the 9.4 column is double or triple the value of the 9.0--it'll put the idea in the heads of honest shop owners that they might want to grade a bit more tightly than they have in the past so they can charge the new 9.4 prices for their truly primo material.

 

Allow me to renew my main argument for higher 9.4 prices--dealers buying collections disproportionately benefit from the current too-low 9.4 prices, and it's at the expense of the people they buy collections from who blindly trust the Guide's inaccuracy. I'm not saying every dealer is a scam artist, or even that most are. But the fact remains that even the noblest of dealers are benefitting from Overstreet's inaccuracy more than anybody else.