Your predictions for one year from now. 5 5

[october]

9 hours ago, blazingbob said:

Isn't there a podcast you can put all this market dynamics wisdom on?  I mean why should we miss these golden nuggets of wisdom?  

I would subscribe. Episode 1: How Hedge Fund Heroes Saved Fandom.

[GermanFan]

@After the world economy didn't collapse in 2008 like is should have I've stopped looking towards past performance as an indicator of future performance.

It did collapse in 2008/9. The incredible thing is they could prolong the Zombie until now. With printing money and lowering interest to zero. Bretton Woods, The Fiat dollar and Euro are in their ending days.

Edited June 3, 2021 by GermanFan

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

4 hours ago, wisbyron said:

I am enjoying these Greggy things so much more than if I knew who that was or what the context is. Great work fellas!

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

2 hours ago, october said:

Parabolic growth in the value of most Marvel keys is a recent phenomenon. We haven't seen a market frenzy like this since the 90's, and that turned out...not great.

And if there was ever a sign that comics are grossly overheated, hedge fund managers buying keys (and dealers somehow thinking that's healthy for the hobby) is definitely it. Good god. 

C’mon Andy.  Who else is going to give you 100k for your newsstand 300?  Embrace the new BSDs....

Edited June 3, 2021 by THE_BEYONDER

[october]

[Namtak]

[VintageComics]

6 hours ago, october said:

Parabolic growth in the value of most Marvel keys is a recent phenomenon. We haven't seen a market frenzy like this since the 90's, and that turned out...not great.

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

There have been some strong booms in recent times. There was a massive price increase for Marvel keys in the Guide around 2006 or so which was probably a compensation by the OSPG for the CGC market boom that started in the early 2000's and that lit a fire for prices.

I remember seeing an Avengers #4 CGC 9.4 sell for $6000 and I thought the world had gone mad and yet here we are.

There was the AF #15 boom of 2009 or so and again in 2017 where the book went sharply upward for a few months.

There were also various 'booms' including Pre Robin Batman Tec's, Pre Code Horror and even Bronze Age horror back in the mid 2000's.

We've had a Baker boom for the last 4- 5 years. I remember buying them up at $50-100 a copy and wondering why everyone wasn't buying them up. Now we're paying $1000's a copy a few short years later.

Remember when an Action #1 CGC 6.0 went for $317K in 2009 and people were gobsmacked?

Part of the phenomenon IMO is that we've been desensitized to growth after being shocked with market record after market record and some people have just come to accept that records are going to continue to happen.

Yes, I understand that a cultural shift on perception will also add to fueling the markets and also potentially creating a correction.

I'm not saying it's great. I've already said the rise is unnatural and also, I've been vocal about not beeing a fan of the movie 'pump and dump' market for over 10+ years now in case you missed it.

All I'm saying is I'm going to stop predicting anymore because I was convinced 10 years ago that the end was nigh and it never came, so I'll just continue to work in the market I have and not the market that I think is coming.

And I will repeat what I said 2 or 3 months ago, this rise is happening in ALL hobbies (wine, cars, watches, cards, real estate, etc) which means it's not a comic-centric thing.

It's universal, which means it's a monetary phenomenon not a hobby centric one.

Let me ask you: How predictable has monetary economics been over the last 10-12 years? Completely unpredictable, right? Just a look at the Gold is $500 thread in the WC shows that nobody knows what's going on anymore because fundamentals no longer matter as much as they used to in any market.

There's no point in predicting anything, anymore in this current market.

6 hours ago, october said:

And if there was ever a sign that comics are grossly overheated, hedge fund managers buying keys (and dealers somehow thinking that's healthy for the hobby) is definitely it. Good god. 

Where did this dealer say it was healthy? You always were a little over-dramatic.

It is what it is.