Warning: Math (and the CGC Census) 0

[Prince Namor]

19 hours ago, SeanYork said:

Can you use this to predict the length of the Turn Around Times that far out?

That's an easy formula

x=Bad³xInfinity

[SeanYork]

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

People could easily break the formula if they'd just return the old labels when they resubmit.  

The formula would still hold for the total number of books in the census, it just doesn't work for the number of slabs currently in circulation.

Edited July 17, 2021 by SeanYork

[lou_fine]

On 7/16/2021 at 12:13 PM, valiantman said:

Is CGC ready for that kind of growth?

The real question is:  Are CGC submittors ready for that type of growth knowing full well there is a direct inverse relation between quality and quantity, especially in the case of graded and slabbed books coming back from CGC?  

[valiantman]

19 hours ago, SeanYork said:

22 hours ago, valiantman said:

People could easily break the formula if they'd just return the old labels when they resubmit.  

The formula would still hold for the total number of books in the census, it just doesn't work for the number of slabs currently in circulation.

I'm suggesting we've already had about 10 years of people resubmitting without returning the labels.  That's put us on the path we're on now.  If people started returning labels, we'd fall off that path, since a regraded book would take time at CGC, but wouldn't change the CGC Census at all.  (1 book on census, book is resubmitted and old label is returned, still 1 book on the census... over time, we'd notice if the counts didn't increase.)

[valiantman]

On 7/16/2021 at 5:16 PM, valiantman said:

On 7/16/2021 at 4:54 PM, Math Teacher said:

May I make a suggestion? How about we compare the predicted amount with the actual number at the end of 2021? Then we can discuss the predictive ability.

We can go ahead and predict next week.  July 20, 2021 census should be about 6,396,611.

The formula will still be 99% accurate as long as the actual number comes in between 6,332,645 and 6,461,223.  I'll go out on a limb and say we'll be just fine. 

July 20, 2021 census is 6,388,460.  Prediction was 6,396,611.  Accuracy: 99.87%