I stepped away from the comic market a year ago. What happened? 7 7

[snitzer]

Anyone mention the new $600 poor-man's tax law yet? 

[lostboys]

Well, they sell invisible comics now so...

[Rob]

I'm not predicting that the value of comic books will collapse.  I just think those of us who have lived through other bubbles should use the wisdom of our experience before we think the rapid increase in values is here to stay.  Let's look at other rapid increases, and what happened to values shortly after (I realize these are not apples to apple comparisons).

If you remember the rise in the price of gold in 1980, speculators drove the price up almost overnight.  And then it came back down, and never saw 1980 values until 2006.  In fact, adjusted for inflation, 1980 values were over $2300 in today's dollars, and have never been achieved since.

 

In 2018, speculators drove Bitcoin values up, and they came back down shortly after.  (And values have gone way higher than that recently, as Bitcoin is the definition of speculative investment)

 

Keeping it in the collectible hobby, here is a chart that shows the value of a common Morgan dollar in MS65.  Quickly peaking to $5000 in the late-80's, only to drop shortly after.

 

So when I look at the chart you posted, I see the increase, but what do you project the next few years to look like?  Again, comics won't be worthless.  I think they'll land higher than they were worth pre-covid.  But I do think they'll come down off this peak.  It seems that's what always happens.

[Westy Steve]

On 2/15/2022 at 3:00 PM, Rob said:

I'm not predicting that the value of comic books will collapse.  I just think those of us who have lived through other bubbles should use the wisdom of our experience before we think the rapid increase in values is here to stay.  Let's look at other rapid increases, and what happened to values shortly after (I realize these are not apples to apple comparisons).

If you remember the rise in the price of gold in 1980, speculators drove the price up almost overnight.  And then it came back down, and never saw 1980 values until 2006.  In fact, adjusted for inflation, 1980 values were over $2300 in today's dollars, and have never been achieved since.

 

In 2018, speculators drove Bitcoin values up, and they came back down shortly after.  (And values have gone way higher than that recently, as Bitcoin is the definition of speculative investment)

 

Keeping it in the collectible hobby, here is a chart that shows the value of a common Morgan dollar in MS65.  Quickly peaking to $5000 in the late-80's, only to drop shortly after.

 

So when I look at the chart you posted, I see the increase, but what do you project the next few years to look like?  Again, comics won't be worthless.  I think they'll land higher than they were worth pre-covid.  But I do think they'll come down off this peak.  It seems that's what always happens.

Rob, you’re speaking my language. I’m a finance/graph and chart guy. I’ll argue the other side here, but please understand not with great conviction. But for fun, here’s a few thoughts.

Gold is affected by leverage. And there are shorts in the market. This creates volatility that you don’t ordinarily see in relatively illiquid collectibles like comic books which must be mailed back-and-forth from owner to owner.

I’ve studied the coin market crash a lot, and I believe that it comes from the novelty of slabbing, rather than the 200 year old hobby of coins.  FWIW, we are also seeing the same reaction with sealed video games…might end badly. What happens is demand moves from demand for collectibles to demand for slabbed collectibles only.  The key is that slabbing was a new phenomenon that brought prices to new territory. Likewise bitcoins are a new phenomenon. Further slabbing a video games is a new phenomenon. Unlike comic books, we are well used to slabbing, but I will admit the stale newness of slabbing comics may be at play. 
 

Last, if you look at the graph for the X-men, It is essentially curved which would make it a straight line on a log scale.  Classic geometric growth except for the peak.  And so you have to ask yourself, is that peak supposed to be the crash? If yes then should price be rising so soon thereafter? If no, then how can we say that we won’t  break the old high?  Especially in light of mutants joining the MCU?

In general, I’m bullish on X-Men. I don’t think they ever recovered after the collapse of the late 1990s. There’s a lot of nostalgia for them. I have a different feeling in my spine looking at X-Men books than I do looking at other books.  Again that’s just me though. My nostalgic kicks into overdrive and I know I’m not alone.

Got to say, there are definitely books that I wished I still owned, and I would view the crash of the comic book market as a great thing, even though I lost money on the X-men 94. But I just can’t bet that that’s gonna happen. But again, I’m not filled with conviction about my position on where things are headed.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Westy Steve

[Comics4All]

What happened was price climb up more than a bit 

@kav

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 2/15/2022 at 8:05 PM, Comics4All said:

What happened was price climb up more than a bit 

@kav

Those who keep waiting for ease have been very disappoint so far. 

[Buzzetta]

On 2/15/2022 at 6:37 PM, Westy Steve said:

Rob, you’re speaking my language. I’m a finance/graph and chart guy. I’ll argue the other side here, but please understand not with great conviction. But for fun, here’s a few thoughts.

Gold is affected by leverage. And there are shorts in the market. This creates volatility that you don’t ordinarily see in relatively illiquid collectibles like comic books which must be mailed back-and-forth from owner to owner.

I’ve studied the coin market crash a lot, and I believe that it comes from the novelty of slabbing, rather than the 200 year old hobby of coins.  FWIW, we are also seeing the same reaction with sealed video games…might end badly. What happens is demand moves from demand for collectibles to demand for slabbed collectibles only.  The key is that slabbing was a new phenomenon that brought prices to new territory. Likewise bitcoins are a new phenomenon. Further slabbing a video games is a new phenomenon. Unlike comic books, we are well used to slabbing, but I will admit the stale newness of slabbing comics may be at play. 
 

Last, if you look at the graph for the X-men, It is essentially curved which would make it a straight line on a log scale.  Classic geometric growth except for the peak.  And so you have to ask yourself, is that peak supposed to be the crash? If yes then should price be rising so soon thereafter? If no, then how can we say that we won’t  break the old high?  Especially in light of mutants joining the MCU?

In general, I’m bullish on X-Men. I don’t think they ever recovered after the collapse of the late 1990s. There’s a lot of nostalgia for them. I have a different feeling in my spine looking at X-Men books than I do looking at other books.  Again that’s just me though. My nostalgic kicks into overdrive and I know I’m not alone.

Got to say, there are definitely books that I wished I still owned, and I would view the crash of the comic book market as a great thing, even though I lost money on the X-men 94. But I just can’t bet that that’s gonna happen. But again, I’m not filled with conviction about my position on where things are headed.

This week a major auction house self promoted by sending out actualized sales for certain collectables that some of us consider "not a safe investment". 

With that sale (north of $30,000), I am now leaning on the 'end of days' are upon us due to the money being spent on degrading collectables.  I will probably make a thread at some point but have not decided where and am most certain that it will devolve into a locked thread given the nature of some of the discussion.

 

In regard to the X-Men

I think that you are right to be bullish on X-Men 1.  The book has not reached its true potential.  If the Fox sale had never happened I would have said the book peaked once Hugh Jackman retired from the role and they had to wait around to relaunch / reboot the property.  I think many around here forget the Ike Perlmutter days where there was a directive to keep the promotion and merchandising focus of X-Men and Fantastic Four materials at a distance due to their live action rights being controlled by a competing studio.  

Once Disney regained the rights, these characters can play with the rest of their intellectual properties.  The ceiling has been raised for these properties. 

[bronze_rules]

On 2/13/2022 at 8:53 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

They failed to take into account the Chinese market.

They failed to take into account the Chinese market  Fed stimulus.

Who knows when the fire hoses will stop. Anybody making conjectures prior to 2010, didn't expect trillion dollar injections without rate hikes.

 

 

[Westy Steve]

On 2/15/2022 at 8:36 PM, Buzzetta said:

This week a major auction house self promoted by sending out actualized sales for certain collectables that some of us consider "not a safe investment". 

With that sale (north of $30,000), I am now leaning on the 'end of days' are upon us due to the money being spent on degrading collectables.  I will probably make a thread at some point but have not decided where and am most certain that it will devolve into a locked thread given the nature of some of the discussion.

 

In regard to the X-Men

I think that you are right to be bullish on X-Men 1.  The book has not reached its true potential.  If the Fox sale had never happened I would have said the book peaked once Hugh Jackman retired from the role and they had to wait around to relaunch / reboot the property.  I think many around here forget the Ike Perlmutter days where there was a directive to keep the promotion and merchandising focus of X-Men and Fantastic Four materials at a distance due to their live action rights being controlled by a competing studio.  

Once Disney regained the rights, these characters can play with the rest of their intellectual properties.  The ceiling has been raised for these properties. 

That’s an interesting insight. I hadn’t considered what a promotional machine Disney is. Now let’s discuss this no further…I don’t want competition.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 2/15/2022 at 8:41 PM, bronze_rules said:

They failed to take into account the Chinese market  Fed stimulus.

Who knows when the fire hoses will stop. Anybody making conjectures prior to 2010, didn't expect trillion dollar injections without rate hikes.

 

 

Cool, and I don't disagree ... but just for the record my "Chinese market" comment was a callback to a longstanding joke around here.

[Rob]

On 2/15/2022 at 4:37 PM, Westy Steve said:

Rob, you’re speaking my language. I’m a finance/graph and chart guy. I’ll argue the other side here, but please understand not with great conviction. But for fun, here’s a few thoughts.

Glad we're both on the same page about this discussion as not having great conviction, but all in fun.  Definitely an interesting discussion to be had.  

[adampasz]

On 2/13/2022 at 1:53 PM, XxSpideyxX said:

I stopped following the market at the start of 2021.  

What is going on now?  What are the current trends and forecasts for 2022?

I stopped going to the LCS, but I think new comics cost like eight or nine dollars now.

Also your bags & boards quadrupled in value.

[batmiesta]

Quick! Step away again. 

[World Devourer]

On 2/14/2022 at 4:28 AM, goldust40 said:

Year on year since 2011 is sticker shock-world. All I've learned is that you can't second guess the market in terms of leveling off or corrections, nor do mitigating factors mean quite as much as everyone thinks 

The difference in the last 12 months is that the market growth has been turbocharged.

I think that last sentence sums up the entire thread.

I was quite busy with work and didn't check GPA for six months.

When I saw the prices for my Bronze Trinity in 9.8 W (ASM #129, GSX #1, IH #181), my reaction was understandably  then

Since Vintage comics will stay scarce, that's a nice retirement fund (among other things). 

The "why" is of course far harder to define than "what". I put much of it down to the MCU and new money courtesy of crypto.

Edited March 4, 2022 by World Devourer