Show me this S.A Crash............

[sfilosa]

One thing to remember is while eBay seems to have brought a bit of "Wall Street" to the comic market, just because I book doesn't sell in a week, doesn't mean it has a dimished value.

 

Example,

 

Book X is listed for $500 on eBay and doesn't sell.

Two weeks later book X is listed again for $500 and doesn't sell

Three months later book X is listed again for $500 and sells.

 

What's the value of the book, $500!

 

Prior to eBay, dealers might sit with books for months/years without selling. It was assumed that the "right" buyer had not seen that particular book or didn't have the money at the time to buy the book.

 

Now, with eBay, WE all assume that SOMEONE will buy ANY book that appears reasonably priced. But that isn't true. I might be bidding on twenty books and don't decided to pay "a little more" for Book X. But if I hadn't seen any other books I wanted, I might buy Book X for $500.

 

There is a certain stock market quality to eBay, but just like the stock market, people have to sell some stocks to buy others.

 

There aren't as many Golden Age collectors, and they might be saving their money up for San Diego or Heritage's Signature Auction. Most of the Golden Age books I see on eBay that don't sell are priced around guide. Therefore, the only people who want to buy that book at that price are the true "Collectors" of that book, not the run of the mill collector/investor/flipper who only wants the book for a song and a dance so they can selling it for a profit.

 

 

[Aman619]

yeah I agree! That was a whole lotta money for that book. Still-- i dont understand why no other high grade Hulk 1s have come out since then??? There MUST be more 9.0s and 9.2s, right?? But--- you would think, especially now with four weeks to go, that they would be on ebay or comiclink etc... Maybe the census is correct? it hasnt changed much either...

 

[murph0]

 

Very bad. Assume an 85% loss. ASMs in the 160s.

 

Well, when you buy books that are very plentiful, don't expect prices to maintain

As for your scenario of crashing books, pre-ASM 100 books that don't have anything real important happening are sticking around 200-275 and have been for almost a year. These books meet all 4 of your criteria and simply aren't "crashing".

The only ASMs I've seen taking a dive are ASM's between 104-118 that show up on eBay often in 9.4/9.6, 130-134, 138-142, and anything post #152.

Caps (100-130) seem to be on the rise as far as prices go too

Brian

[COI]

.....because I don't see it.

 

What a killer book!

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2174370544&category=32731&rd=1

 

If I'm not mistaken, he made quite a decent profit on this book.

 

Several things, not the least of which....

 

I've been saying for a year that there HAS been a price crash on books that meet ALL of these criteria:

 

1) Post-1966

2) CGC 9.6 or below

3) A "common" issue, one with nothing really exciting happening in it

4) Not by any stretch of the imagination a key.

 

Seeing as FF 5 is pre-66, not a common and a key, and the bidder was the legendary mrahome, no surprise.

 

Again, if you do NOT believe books that hit all four of those criteria have crashed, please buy my CGC 9.6 Amazing Spider-Mans for what I paid for them 12 months ago.

 

If you see my above post, I mention that I'm going to start selling off some of my more common silvers, for books of similar caliber to the FF #5. I've seen your criteria list many times, and have always been in complete agreement. I didn't start the thread to say "look, ALL marvel silver is gold". I actually believe quite the opposite is true. Actually, I would even narrow #1 on your criteria list to post-1965, as I believe a good number of books from 1965 are not as hard to find as previously thought.

 

Purely for long term holding, I wouldn't pay over guide for Captain America #100, Iron Man #1, Nick Fury #1, or any of the countless other books that are that common, even if they are "keys". ASM 9.6's were bad news, and I avoided them until recently, especially post-#50. I still remember shaking my head at the sight of an ASM #70 in CGC 9.6 selling for $1200 near the end of 2001.

 

As for this book, the reserve was met even before Mrahome's final bid, but he is an agressive buyer which did help.

[fantastic_four]

If I'm not mistaken, he made quite a decent profit on this book.

He bought it in September 2002 for $8900, so yea, $1200+ is a nice turnaround.

[COI]

One thing to remember is while eBay seems to have brought a bit of "Wall Street" to the comic market, just because I book doesn't sell in a week, doesn't mean it has a dimished value.

 

Exactly!

 

People are over-estimating ebay's ability to serve as some sort of "stock-ticker". It is far from that, and infact is very unreliable. There are just too many factors that affect each auction. So if each auction is not on a level playing field because of an infinite amount of variables, how can it be considered reliable in that respect? Here's an example;

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2175917455

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=32739&item=2170414107

 

I know this may come off as sour grapes because my 9.6 did not preform well, but it's not. It's just pointing out the inconsistencies, and showing that my 9.6 was not necessarily worth only $1200, but the fact that it had no reserve coupled with some bad luck and an infinite amount of other possible variables, resulted in that final price. But it isn't accurate for that book, as you can see by the comparison. I challenge anyone to find another 9.6 as nice as mine for that price.

 

The buyer(who's a forum member) even remarked to me that he was surpirsed to win it, and later told me that it is indeed every bit a 9.6 as I described.

[lou_fine]

Flying Donut;

 

Sorry to hear about your paper loss. The lesson to be learn here is that you should never chase after books. It is similar to chsing after the Nasdaq index when it has already crossed 5,000 points. Speculation requires perfect timing and for most people (especially me), you end up jumping onto the bandwagon at the wrong time.

 

With respect to my comic books, I have been fortunate so far since I tend to follow the Warren Buffet approach which is to buy quality assets at the right time and hold onto them for the long run. As a result, most of my purchases have been in the GA market. I basically started with Batman books until a couple of months prior to the first movie coming out in 1989. I then moved into Timelys until the prices there started going up in the early 90's. From there I moved into early Fox books and so-called classic covers until the mid-90's when those books started to go through the roof.

 

I have not purchased very many books since then because the prices have just gone too high compared to Overstreet. I usually like to buy high grade books that are close to guide and as a result, have not been able to purchase very many books lately. I just refused to play the CGC game of X multiples which appear to be in the marketplace right now.

 

A good area right now might be high grade Archies since they have been around continuously since the early 40's and is one of the few books that kids of all ages still read. For such a major publisher, I believe there are very few of these books which have been graded (approx. 100?). Lucky for me, the only CGC book in my entire collection is a 9.2 #1 Archie book from the early 1950's. I wish I could find more of these at reasonable prices.

[FlyingDonut]

I'm just going to stick to things and not speculate (hah!). Just got this, for basically Guide plus the slabbing cost. Not bad for a 9.0 EC.

[g-man]

good price on that donut. Other than a few books on ebay and some by Ewert there really has not been too much to speak of. I managed to pick up a 9.6 for roughly 2x guide but that's about it. Hopefully Philly is chock full of goodies!

[minutekev@50]

My thinking is why are so many people willing to pay an ungodly amount of dollars for a CGC graded book? Just because it's supposedly graded fairly by a third-party entity? It's insane. In a perfect world, I think people trying to sell slabbed comics would charge guide price for a comic plus the added expense of the CGC cost and that's that.

Of course, this is not a perfect world.

[valiantman]

My thinking is why are so many people willing to pay an ungodly amount of dollars for a CGC graded book? Just because it's supposedly graded fairly by a third-party entity? It's insane. In a perfect world, I think people trying to sell slabbed comics would charge guide price for a comic plus the added expense of the CGC cost and that's that.

Of course, this is not a perfect world.

 

On one extreme, you've got people paying TONS too much for a CGC graded book.

On the other extreme, you've got people paying TONS too much for a raw book

that has been TERRIBLY overgraded (or undisclosed restoration) by the seller.

 

A perfect world would be somewhere in the middle...

where grading is perfect and prices reflect the price guides.

 

But...if I have to pay too much for a book, I would definitely prefer that it's a

CGC graded book I'm buying, rather than some overgraded/restored raw book.

 

The prices paid for CGC books are partially a response to decades of "low confidence"

in the grading skills and ethics of some comic book sellers.

[joe_collector]

[The prices paid for CGC books are partially a response to decades of "low confidence" in the grading skills and ethics of some comic book sellers.

 

Actually, as in other graded collectibles fields, the prices paid for CGC books have been inflated by fooling naive speculators into thinking that investing in comics is as easy as reading a number.

 

"Hey, it's a CGC 9.4, it must be a great investment!"

 

Most of those simps have been burned and are long gone, but a few more pop in every week, eager to lose their shirts in a business they don't comprehend.

[sfilosa]

In a perfect world, I think people trying to sell slabbed comics would charge guide price for a comic plus the added expense of the CGC cost and that's that.

 

 

HUH!!!

 

In what decade did a true NM book usually go for Guide? I've colected off and on for 25 years and NM books almost always went for above guide unless they were just non-demand type books.

 

 

Everyone knows that O/S is always conservative on NM pricing even prior to CGC. Now that CGC has somewhat leveled the playing field, it is much easier to compare a books grade to O/S prices. Prior to CGC, you didn't know if the sale of a NM books for X amount of dollars was in reality the real transaction. Maybe the book was overgraded, therefore the price appeared more reasonable.

 

 

[minutekev@50]

In a perfect world, I think people trying to sell slabbed comics would charge guide price for a comic plus the added expense of the CGC cost and that's that.

 

 

HUH!!!

 

 

All I'm saying is someone submits the first appearence of 'the blazing bombadier' from the bronze age and it comes back a 9.4 they get all giddy and jack the price up to 3, 4, or five times guide price. I have nothing personal against CGC and have even toyed with the idea of sending in a few books myself. But if Overstreet has been the universally recognized standard that the majority of dealers utilize, shouldn't the price guide be recognized by collectors as well when trying to re-sell? No doubt, CGC has leveled the playing field but whereas a vf/nm comic was once a reasonable purchase, prices have sky-rocketed.

[sfilosa]

Since when did CGC or a even the Overstreet Guide, tell you what you can sell your book for?

 

IT"S A GUIDE. If people want to jack up their prices, don't buy. Either they lower their prices or they can take their books home and play by themselves.

 

The issue I have is the "my books a 9.8 and the highest graded copy so its worth 10 times guide". Yeah, but its also a modern book that has almost no value below 9.4. But, I don't buy modern books so I hope lots of people "waste" their money on those books and leave the really rare books to me.

 

 

To me, a book can't be rare because their aren't a lot of NM+ copies. Either the book is rare in high grade or it isn't. If there are no NM+ copies but 50 VF/NM copies in the census, its not rare in high grade. Let's face it, for every book, there has to be the "BEST IN EXISTENCE". But, that doesn't make every book rare.

 

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

IT"S A GUIDE. If people want to jack up their prices, don't buy. Either they lower their prices or they can take their books home and play by themselves.

 

This brings up a funny little story I'd like to share. A few years ago, I put a White Mountain copy of Fantastic Four # 10 on ebay right at the start of the CGC Mania (It had just come back as a 9.2). I slapped on an outrageous multiple, and watched the bidding start. During the course of the week, as the bids increased, but the reserve wasn't being met, you would not believe the HATE mail I got from some people. Some just wrote a profane comment, while others were articulate enough to accuse me of 'single-handedly destroying the comic market with my outrageous price on a common book', blah, blah, blah..

 

To all of them, I responded thus: Its a free market system: supply versus demand. If no one wants to pay my outrageous price for a ONE OF A KIND item, then no one has to. I'll eat the auction fees and put it back in the safety deposit box. If you have a problem with the free market system, may I recommend Cuba as a possible alternative place of habitation.

 

The moral of the story is: some people really do think the Overstreet Guide is the (literal) Bible of the comic book hobby, and anything that runs counter to its contents is blasphemy.

 

Rant over.

 

[minutekev@50]

IT"S A GUIDE. If people want to jack up their prices, don't buy. Either they lower their prices or they can take their books home and play by themselves.

 

This brings up a funny little story I'd like to share. A few years ago, I put a White Mountain copy of Fantastic Four # 10 on ebay right at the start of the CGC Mania (It had just come back as a 9.2). I slapped on an outrageous multiple, and watched the bidding start. During the course of the week, as the bids increased, but the reserve wasn't being met, you would not believe the HATE mail I got from some people. Some just wrote a profane comment, while others were articulate enough to accuse me of 'single-handedly destroying the comic market with my outrageous price on a common book', blah, blah, blah..

 

To all of them, I responded thus: Its a free market system: supply versus demand. If no one wants to pay my outrageous price for a ONE OF A KIND item, then no one has to. I'll eat the auction fees and put it back in the safety deposit box. If you have a problem with the free market system, may I recommend Cuba as a possible alternative place of habitation.

 

The moral of the story is: some people really do think the Overstreet Guide is the (literal) Bible of the comic book hobby, and anything that runs counter to its contents is blasphemy.

 

Rant over.

 

 

I agree that the Overstreet Guide is just that...a guide. I also like the free market system. However, shouldn't a seller at least take a courtesy look at Overstreet and use the prices there as a basis for selling a book? Without Overstreet (and the idea of grading standards to begin with) there would be no CGC.

But it's your book. By God, set the price for what you'd like it to be and if some fan-boy is happy to pay for it...fine.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

However, shouldn't a seller at least take a courtesy look at Overstreet and use the prices there as a basis for selling a book?

 

Yes. Absolutely. For my book, it was Guide...multiplied by 5 (It didn't meet that heinous reserve, but it did sell after the auction privately for 4 times Guide)

 

And no, it wasn't to a "fanboy", but to an advanced collector/business owner who had the financial wherewithal to add a unique piece to his already awesome collection.

 

 

 

 

[minutekev@50]

However, shouldn't a seller at least take a courtesy look at Overstreet and use the prices there as a basis for selling a book?

 

Yes. Absolutely. For my book, it was Guide...multiplied by 5 (It didn't meet that heinous reserve, but it did sell after the auction privately for 4 times Guide)

 

And no, it wasn't to a "fanboy", but to an advanced collector/business owner who had the financial wherewithal to add a unique piece to his already awesome collection.

 

 

Good for you! Granted, if I had unlimited resources I'd probably pay five or four times guide for the items I wanted as well.

[COI]

agree that the Overstreet Guide is just that...a guide. I also like the free market system. However, shouldn't a seller at least take a courtesy look at Overstreet and use the prices there as a basis for selling a book? Without Overstreet (and the idea of grading standards to begin with) there would be no CGC.

 

No offense, but I don't understand this. It isn't just the sellers who are "jacking" up the prices, it's the bidders. So if bidders are consistently paying multiples of guide for slabbed 9.4's+, then it becomes fair market value. Values may rise or drop, but for tight now, FMV is multiples of guide for many NM books. I have seen countless auctions starting at $1 w/no reserve, and the books still command multiples. So that means that paying multiples for slabbed 9.4's is becomming the norm, for the time being. But the guide will not reflect that because CGC is one smaller portion of a huge hobby.

 

And like others have already said, paying multiples for true NM's has been a standard practice for a long time.

 

It also depends on what you collect. I would guess by your posts that you've never had a situation where you've bought an early Silver "NM" book, and had it turn out to be restored, losing lots of money in the process. If that happens to you, then you might understand why slabbed books bring in a premium. I collect high grade silver, so CGC is not only the better alternative for me, but in some cases it's the only one. But if you can find me a seller who sells early silver in unrestored, high grade, unslabbed, please tell me!