Show me this S.A Crash............

[COI]

.....because I don't see it.

 

What a killer book!

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2174370544&category=32731&rd=1

 

If I'm not mistaken, he made quite a decent profit on this book.

[g-man]

love profit! but i agree...if the book warrants it, the ending price will reflect it. U (in general) can have all the Hulk #181s and GS XMEN #1s u want in 9.4 or better, I would deal them all for a FF #5, 12,25,26 or early Spideys, Avengers #4, etc.....but that is just me. Or is it?

[COI]

I would deal them all for a FF #5, 12,25,26 or early Spideys, Avengers #4, etc.....but that is just me. Or is it?

 

Definetly not just you. I agree 100%, and have decided to cut down on buying to save up some coin for books like this. Whenever I see books of this caliber, it makes me want to cash in all my stuff, and focus on a few choice pieces.

[COI]

Not to mention that the high bidder is like a black hole, sucking up TONS of choice material off the continent.

 

And what I find crazy is that someone paid almost double for a Hulk 181 that wasn't even the top graded, when they could have had this book, and THOUSANDS left over.

[clobberintime]

I think it is like what you pointed out in another post - things are starting to settle in a bit more as far as pricing goes. When cgc first started there were no rules or guidelines or gP price ananlysis or anything else to go on. The price could be anything! I really thought that there would be very few pre1966 books that would grade over a 9.2 from what i thought a 9.2 would look like and my experience at cons and shops seeing very few tightly grade nm silver age books. I am sure others thought the high grade books would be incredibly scarce too. and I bet that led to a lot of the last couple years' high prices - that coupled with movie hype mania. Some people over paid for books. Those books are not valueless - it just may be a few more years or movies until prices catch back up. but for the good stuff pre 1970 prices that are fairly in accord with overstreet have held steady.The FF 5 9.2 sold for around double guide which is an excellent price for buyer and seller - I would be happy as either given the book and its potential and scarcity. I think it boils down to the acceptable price multiples for cgc 9.0 and up. If you are buying as a collector you might pay just about anything for that special book. As an investor, you need to look more at the book's potential and decide if a 9.4 is really worth 3 to5 x guide. I have never thought the accepted cgc price multiples for 9.2 to 9.8 books made any sense - always arbitrary - because cgc has not been around long enough. I think it is good for the hobby if prices settle in more and reflect the long term research of dealers and Overstreet in pricing. As many have noted the speculators and bandwagon folks do not help the hobby in the long run.

[dam60]

heh now!! You could pay my rent for 9 months with that!!!

 

I wish I could afford $10K books one day . . . . .

 

DAM

[12c_Comic]

You can go wrong on MARVEL and D.C. GoldenAge and SilverAge Key Issues,solid and consistent comics....

[FlyingDonut]

.....because I don't see it.

 

What a killer book!

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2174370544&category=32731&rd=1

 

If I'm not mistaken, he made quite a decent profit on this book.

 

Several things, not the least of which....

 

I've been saying for a year that there HAS been a price crash on books that meet ALL of these criteria:

 

1) Post-1966

2) CGC 9.6 or below

3) A "common" issue, one with nothing really exciting happening in it

4) Not by any stretch of the imagination a key.

 

Seeing as FF 5 is pre-66, not a common and a key, and the bidder was the legendary mrahome, no surprise.

 

Again, if you do NOT believe books that hit all four of those criteria have crashed, please buy my CGC 9.6 Amazing Spider-Mans for what I paid for them 12 months ago.

[Aman619]

the legendary mrahome,

 

who is this mysterious alias,,,,and why is he legendary? "A black hole? is that a slur???

Do you realy mean a 'black ___hole?' That sounds a little harsh too...

[clobberintime]

Were thos ante100 Spidey 9.6s meant as an investment? If they were you should have known better if you have been at this awhile. Did you buy them during the Spidey hype to make sure that you paid the highest price possible? The sale of one FF 5 9.2 for a very good price of course does not determine the story for the whole market. All you need to do is look around ebay or listen to the tales and sales on these boards to find that out. Prices for pre1970 books have remained fairly solid if you judge by guide prices and what seems "right" for a particular book. I think those early crazy high prices are long gone. Even the new round of Marvel movies isn't hyping things up like X-men 1 and Spidey. Some people over paid due to the newness of the latest hot thing - CGC - combined with good movie hype. But i think Marvel silver is very bankable and I put my money where my mouth is - I see captsofindustry does too! Was it a good idea or smart to pay 5x guide for that Spidey 15 9.4? Probably not if you were a spec or flipper looking to resell in a few months. The long term collector or completionist may be thrilled with it though.

[FlyingDonut]

the legendary mrahome,

 

who is this mysterious alias,,,,and why is he legendary? "A black hole? is that a slur???

Do you realy mean a 'black ___hole?' That sounds a little harsh too...

 

Oh, no! the eBay bidder mrahome@aol.com is a GREAT guy - he's in England, and if he wants the book, he's going to get it. Happiness as an eBay seller is when mrahome@aol.com wants your book!

[FlyingDonut]

Were thos ante100 Spidey 9.6s meant as an investment? If they were you should have known better if you have been at this awhile. Did you buy them during the Spidey hype to make sure that you paid the highest price possible? The sale of one FF 5 9.2 for a very good price of course does not determine the story for the whole market. All you need to do is look around ebay or listen to the tales and sales on these boards to find that out. Prices for pre1970 books have remained fairly solid if you judge by guide prices and what seems "right" for a particular book. I think those early crazy high prices are long gone. Even the new round of Marvel movies isn't hyping things up like X-men 1 and Spidey. Some people over paid due to the newness of the latest hot thing - CGC - combined with good movie hype. But i think Marvel silver is very bankable and I put my money where my mouth is - I see captsofindustry does too! Was it a good idea or smart to pay 5x guide for that Spidey 15 9.4? Probably not if you were a spec or flipper looking to resell in a few months. The long term collector or completionist may be thrilled with it though.

 

Did you buy them during the Spidey hype to make sure that you paid the highest price possible

 

Yes, and held them too long. Completely my fault, and I chalk it up to not paying attention.

 

But i think Marvel silver is very bankable and I put my money where my mouth is

I agree with you, and am buying up whatever I can raw. HOWEVER, and what I think you're missing (and all of the other anti-crash naysayers are missing as well), is that prices DID crash on Silver as well from the nutty heights earlier. An Amazing 15 9.4 at 5x guide would probably sell for what, 3x guide now? That's still a VERY nice multiple if you've got one, but the poor slappy who bought it for 5x guide just saw his investment crash by 40%.

 

[Aman619]

oh, okay...so he's a high-grade big dollar buyer who's easy to deal with.

gotcha.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Again, if you do NOT believe books that hit all four of those criteria have crashed, please buy my CGC 9.6 Amazing Spider-Mans for what I paid for them 12 months ago.

 

Just curious Donut, but what sort of damage are we talking here? Can you (or rather, are you willing to) cite some examples of your particular overpayment?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FlyingDonut]

Again, if you do NOT believe books that hit all four of those criteria have crashed, please buy my CGC 9.6 Amazing Spider-Mans for what I paid for them 12 months ago.

 

Just curious Donut, but what sort of damage are we talking here? Can you (or rather, are you willing to) cite some examples of your particular overpayment?

 

Very bad. Assume an 85% loss. ASMs in the 160s.

 

Lessons learned - 1) if you're going to speculate, you'll eventually get burned if you don't follow # (2) Pay attention, insufficiently_thoughtful_person and if you want to avoid #1, (3) Don't buy something you don't want to be stuck with when the music stops.

 

Such is life.

[clobberintime]

I think we are on the same page - if not at least the same chapter! There are a lot of guys who have to get that book first you know! And in this case, a lot of them over paid as prices have settled and more high grades have shown up. Sometimes patience pays - unless you just gots to have it now! But paying 2.5 or 3x guide for 9.4s is no crash. That is more money than those books have ever sold for. The guy who paid $150 k for that 9.6 Spidey 1 that resold at Heritage for $80K sure lost his . But $80,000 for a Spidey 1 - I don't think prior to CGC a copy of Spidey 1 ever sold for anything like that. Not ever. Same for lots of cgcd books - they are still selling for a lot more than they ever did without the plastic. But they are not selling for the crazy multiples. I actually think i see a trend on ebay where books are starting to look more like Overstrt prices - especially 8.0s to 9.2s. But I am glad that I did not pay the crazy prices for some of that 9.4+ stuff. Heck the prices will probably come back up in about 5 or 10 years though(imagine a cute smiley face here).

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Very bad. Assume an 80% loss. ASMs in the 160s. Such is life.

 

80%? Holy Moly

 

Well, there's always the sequel to try and recoup your dough.

 

I agree with Clobberin' though; the movie hype thing is over. Too many non-comic people looked to the market as a safe haven in a slow economy, got burnt speculating, and will not be back.

 

Of greater concern to the hobby I think is all the really nice golden age that I see over and over again on ebay, with no buyers. Especially restored golden age keys and (heaven forbid) non keys. When is the guide going to accurately reflect the diminishing interest in golden age books?

 

To accentuate my point on the whole decline of the golden age market, consider this:

 

If my memory serves, there was a 9.4 Avengers # 4 that was listed on ebay within the last few months. It had a very dull cover, virtually no luster, but it was still a CGC 9.4 and it received bids in excess of $4,000 (but reserve was not met if I recall correctly).

 

Today, an auction ended on ebay for a very nice, fairly priced, Cap # 1 CGC 4.5 that had one tear seal, but it received no bids at $8,500. (Guide, if it was unrestored, would be nearly double that).

 

Granted, I think Avengers 4 is one of the most over-rated Silver Age "keys" that exists, but does anyone else see the problem here? If you have the juice for the Avengers # 4, why wouldn't you save your pennies and go for that Cap # 1?

 

I don't get it.

 

 

 

 

 

[Aman619]

If you have the juice for the Avengers # 4, why wouldn't you save your pennies and go for that Cap # 1?

 

maybe because you are comparing a ripped and restored lower grade Cap#1 to a very high grade Avengers #4. Its high grade vs low grade. Admittedly, the Cap is much rarer, but for me, I always prefer a rarer book due to grade than due to # copies around....even for a GA key.

 

thats one explanation.

[Aman619]

I think we are on the same page - if not at least the same chapter! There are a lot of guys who have to get that book first you know! And in this case, a lot of them over paid as prices have settled and more high grades have shown up. Sometimes patience pays - unless you just gots to have it now! But paying 2.5 or 3x guide for 9.4s is no crash. That is more money than those books have ever sold for. The guy who paid $150 k for that 9.6 Spidey 1 that resold at Heritage for $80K sure lost his . But $80,000 for a Spidey 1 - I don't think prior to CGC a copy of Spidey 1 ever sold for anything like that. Not ever. Same for lots of cgcd books - they are still selling for a lot more than they ever did without the plastic. But they are not selling for the crazy multiples. I actually think i see a trend on ebay where books are starting to look more like Overstrt prices - especially 8.0s to 9.2s. But I am glad that I did not pay the crazy prices for some of that 9.4+ stuff. Heck the prices will probably come back up in about 5 or 10 years though(imagine a cute smiley face here).

 

wow..I didnt now he paid $150 and settled for only 80!! Big-time loss on that book. What about some of the other super-high prices we have seen and heard for Marvel Silver? The 9.6 AF#15 or that 9.2 Hulk#1 for $50K from last year?? What were they thinking, huh? or do you think those were okay buys, at least long-term?

[clobberintime]

A few people know who bought that Hulk 1 for $50k and not many people think it was a great deal! Hard to find book but jeez! I am amazed more high grade early Hulks have not been on ebay - with spidey and X-men 1 it was nuts on ebay. Even now with the movie on the way I doubt that Hulk 1 would crack $40 k. Just not the same atmosphere no matter the movie hype.