How strong is the back issue market?

[THE_BEYONDER]

I'm not sure what everyone is waiting for...........SELL. Today's market is the "miracle" that everyone has been dreaming about since 1993. Why are we talking about "investing" in comics? You have ALREADY DONE THAT! If you are looking for a "profit", can I introduce you to Ebay? Whether or not the comic market will CRASH is irrelevant......because it hasn't happened yet. Don't worry, you still have time.........

[FlyingDonut]

IAnd now I will turn it over to JC... for his gloom-and-doom rebuttal...

 

Thanks Lighthouse, and to continue...

 

I won't get all gloom-and-doom, but I think it's wishful thinking to hope that back issues will continue to appreciate for years to come, and that all the "high rollers" are not here for the money, but for some altruistic, heartfelt comic collecting.

 

I view the current back issue market as extremely volatile and tenous. I've seen it too many times before, and I would like EVERYONE on here to take a look in the mirror and answer a few questions:

 

1) Have you been collecting consistently through your life?

 

2) If not, when have you left collecting and then come back?

 

If the answers to #2 coincide with boom and bust periods, then you're like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, destined to live through the same circumstances time and time again...

 

3) Look in the mirror and ask "what brought you back?"

 

Greggy was picking up Marvel 9.8 Keys for $10-$20 a piece in the mid-90's when it wasn't sexy to do so, so why are so many now willing to spend a few grand on the exact same books?

 

1. Since 1975

2. Haven't

3. More cash available now.

 

You guys can complain about the crash in CGC books. I'm just happily buying books that are appreciating at a very steady 6-10% every year, and have been for the past 15 years. Yes, past performance is not a predictor of future performance, but I am pretty damn sure that the books I'm putting away will have nice long legs, and they will be able to pay for part of my retirement fund. I'm not buying 1970s X-Men or 1980s GI Joe. I'm buying mainstream books that Joe Blow on the street knows and understands.

[murph0]

With the exception of those "can't miss" late bronze ASM's right, Donut?

 

Brian

[FlyingDonut]

With the exception of those "can't miss" late bronze ASM's right, Donut?

 

Brian

 

Kenny said my predicament better:

 

On a warm summers evening, on a train bound for nowhere

I met up with a gambler, we were both too tired to sleep

So we took turns at staring out the window at the darkness

The boredom overtook us and he began to speak

He said, son I've made a life out of reading people's faces

And knowing what the cards were, by the way they held their eyes

So if you don't mind my sayin', I can see you're out of aces

For a taste of your whiskey, I'll give you some advice

So I handed him my bottle, and he drank down my last swallow

Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light

And the night got deathly quiet, and his face lost all expression

Said, if you're gonna play the game, boy, you gotta learn to play it right

Chorus:

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away and know when to run

You never count your money, when you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for countin', when the dealin's done

Every gambler knows that the secret to survive is

Knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep

'Cos every hand's a winner and every hand's a loser

And the best that you can hope for is that I end asleep

And when he finished speakin', he turned back for the window

Crushed out the cigarette, faded off to sleep

And somewhere in the darkness, the gambler he broke even

But in his final words I found an ace that I could keep

 

[murph0]

Too much typing..all I got was

Just kidding

 

Brian

[ninanina]

I'm not sure what everyone is waiting for...........SELL. Today's market is the "miracle" that everyone has been dreaming about since 1993. Why are we talking about "investing" in comics? You have ALREADY DONE THAT! If you are looking for a "profit", can I introduce you to Ebay? Whether or not the comic market will CRASH is irrelevant......because it hasn't happened yet. Don't worry, you still have time.........

 

Nah, I'll wait until after the next crash. There'll be another "miracle" in 2022 that we've all dreamed about since 2006. Then I'll sell. "Cause then I'll get $19,000.00 for that Hulk 181 in 9.4 that I bought in 2006 for $285.00.

 

Got it all planned out.

[sfilosa]

You guys can complain about the crash in CGC books. I'm just happily buying books that are appreciating at a very steady 6-10% every year, and have been for the past 15 years. Yes, past performance is not a predictor of future performance, but I am pretty damn sure that the books I'm putting away will have nice long legs, and they will be able to pay for part of my retirement fund. I'm not buying 1970s X-Men or 1980s GI Joe. I'm buying mainstream books that Joe Blow on the street knows and understands.

 

And therein lies the problem. You been getting a nice 6-10% return, but in the last few years true NM books have gone threw the roof.

 

Just like the stock market of 1998, 1999 and early 2000. When something new gets hot (I believe it was the INTERNET) and instead of getting a steady 10% return the Nasdaq goes up 82% in one year, the gigs up. And we all know that the stock market gave it all back and some.

 

There are differences between the stock market and comic market for sure. And there will not be "Panic" selling on high quality older books because there really aren't that many of them. But, do you really see prices continue to go up over the next ten years? We just had explosive growth and only in the NM market (as CGC has weeded out the contenders from the pretenders). There has not been much price increase in anything below VF/NM.

 

Usually after explosive price increases there is a long period of dormant price movement. This is where you will start to see, a slow but steady sale of books that people bought because they thought the price was good, and not because they collect those issues. And what really happens is that the "INVESTORS" get bored and start selling. That's when some of the more common books (and that includes most Bronze books and some Silver) will be seen for sale at much lower prices. And just like everyone who was in the stock market, YOU believe you will know when to get out.

 

Hey, I'm a sucker too. I really believe I will know when to sell. And that usually means you will sell some books for a loss (as they will be the last ones you purchased on the way up).

 

BUY QUALITY (and that doesn't necessarily mean only NM). In my mind, QUALITY books are those that you just don't see for sale very often. At least there can never be a "FLOOD" of those books, and the true collector will buy those when they are available.

[Darthdiesel]

With the exception of those "can't miss" late bronze ASM's right, Donut?

 

Brian

 

Kenny said my predicament better:

 

On a warm summers evening, on a train bound for nowhere

I met up with a gambler, we were both too tired to sleep

So we took turns at staring out the window at the darkness

The boredom overtook us and he began to speak

He said, son I've made a life out of reading people's faces

And knowing what the cards were, by the way they held their eyes

So if you don't mind my sayin', I can see you're out of aces

For a taste of your whiskey, I'll give you some advice

So I handed him my bottle, and he drank down my last swallow

Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light

And the night got deathly quiet, and his face lost all expression

Said, if you're gonna play the game, boy, you gotta learn to play it right

Chorus:

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away and know when to run

You never count your money, when you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for countin', when the dealin's done

Every gambler knows that the secret to survive is

Knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep

'Cos every hand's a winner and every hand's a loser

And the best that you can hope for is that I end asleep

And when he finished speakin', he turned back for the window

Crushed out the cigarette, faded off to sleep

And somewhere in the darkness, the gambler he broke even

But in his final words I found an ace that I could keep

 

Oh yeah...Kenny - my favorite:

 

You've Painted Up Your Lips

And Rolled And Curled Your Tinted Hair

Ruby Are You Contemplating Going Out Somewhere

The Shadow On The Wall Tells Me The Sun Is Going Down

Oh Ruby.… Don't Take Your Love To Town

 

It Wasn't Me That Started That Old Crazy Asian War

But I Was Proud To Go And Do My Patriotic Chore

And Yes, It's True That I'm Not The Man I Used To Be

Oh, Ruby…. I Still Need Some Company

 

Its Hard To Love A Man Whose Legs Are Bent And Paralysed

And The Wants And The Needs Of A Woman Your Age, Ruby I Realize

But It Won't Be Long I’ve Heard Them Say Until I Not Around

Oh Ruby….. Don't Take Your Love To Town

 

She's Leaving Now Cause I Just Heard The Slamming Of The Door

The Way I Know I've Heard It Some 100 Times Before

And If I Could Move I'd Get My Gun And Put Her In The Groundsize>

Oh Ruby….. Don't Take Your Love To Town

 

Oh Ruby…. For God's Sake Turn Around

[Kevin76]

One caveat - I think that there will always be a collector who wants the top graded book. I think that the guy who paid $19K for a Hulk 181 is a fool

 

Well, what about when CGC first came around and someone bought a 9.4 Hulk 181 for $1000..people thought he was stupid and insane for paying that for a Hulk 181,It was in CBG and in Wizard Mag,that was about 2-3 years ago? So i ask you is he still a fool to this day 3 year later? Kevin

[Kevin76]

please let me know when I can buy 12/15/20-cent CGC 9.4 Spidey's, FF's, Hulks, and X-men at today's NM guide prices, ok?

 

Those days are long gone,I have even heard stories of dealers calling up customers asking if they will sell them back to them cause they can''t find the stuff. Kevin

[dam60]

One caveat - I think that there will always be a collector who wants the top graded book. I think that the guy who paid $19K for a Hulk 181 is a fool

 

Well, what about when CGC first came around and someone bought a 9.4 Hulk 181 for $1000..people thought he was stupid and insane for paying that for a Hulk 181,It was in CBG and in Wizard Mag,that was about 2-3 years ago? So i ask you is he still a fool to this day 3 year later? Kevin

 

Kev two major things to consider:

1 - He was buying the label and not the book (not sure if you were on your sabbatical, but there were many threads about how this was a generous 9.8)

 

2 - 19K is approaching a Glass Ceiling in comics. That's a lot of money and I think that 99% of people would rather have an okay-decent copy of AF 15 than not even the top graded 181. Plus with 19K I would rather have a car or put that towards a down payment for a home.

 

I would not only agree but would argue that Hulk 181 is the most important comic from the last 30 years, but at $19K considering the availability of Hulk 181 even in 9.6 seems disproportionately high. Fact in "buy the book and not the label" and I stand firm with my assessment that $19K is a fool's price to pay for a 9.8.

 

DAM

[musicmeta]

I would not only agree but would argue that Hulk 181 is the most important comic from the last 30 years, but at $19K considering the availability of Hulk 181 even in 9.6 seems disproportionately high. Fact in "buy the book and not the label" and I stand firm with my assessment that $19K is a fool's price to pay for a 9.8.

Whoever paid 19K for the 9.8 Hulk 181 must have money to burn and if this book drops like a rock in value, his investment is probably no more than like me tossing a couple of twenty dollar bills in the dirt. That person will probably just shrug his shoulders and move on.

 

 

[joe_collector]

Whoever paid 19K for the 9.8 Hulk 181 must have money to burn and if this book drops like a rock in value, his investment is probably no more than like me tossing a couple of twenty dollar bills in the dirt.

 

I hope so... I really do.

 

But you'd be surprised at who was holding the bag when other collectible's market crashed. Most times it was the average guy on the street who got hammered the most, which is logical, since most people don't get rich by being .

[theVisitor]

Are comics a better investment than buying a case of beer? Yep.

 

Are comics a better investment than an old movie stub? Probably.

 

Are the profits from investing in CGC comics going to let you retire early or pay for your kid's education? Hardly, and you'll likely lose your shirt in the long run.

 

A better investment than a case of beer !!!! Let's not get crazy here

[joe_collector]

I'm not sure what everyone is waiting for...........SELL. Today's market is the "miracle" that everyone has been dreaming about since 1993. Why are we talking about "investing" in comics? You have ALREADY DONE THAT! If you are looking for a "profit", can I introduce you to Ebay? Whether or not the comic market will CRASH is irrelevant......because it hasn't happened yet. Don't worry, you still have time.........

 

Ah, the old "How to be a Forum Legend" path to fame and fortune. I agree totally, and feel that you have summed up the market confusion in just one paragraph.

 

Those who sell are recouping their profits, while those who pay FMV for high-dollar CGC books....

[jbud73]

Lotta opinions on this one. I think it depends on what you consider yourself here for, so I agree with dam60 - read the webpage. I ask myself how do I know a collector, from a speculator/dealer? Answer sellers remorse. That twinge in your neck and slight pain in your stomach that you havent felt since you got caught doing something you werent supposed to be doing as a child and wondered if it was a spanking offence. Personally, I have had sellers remorse for every comic I sold. I've sold some on Ebay to allow me to eat after purchasing a collection twice. But I still thought man if I become a vegetarian, non-drinker I can keep em.

 

To answer JC, I left at the beginning of University and returned a year and a half after completing my second degree. I look at my want list from 1992 and the price increase in all those bronze issues and man I slap myself, not for the money I could have made, but for the money I could have saved

 

I lament the market boom, the movies, the price escalation, man I just want the books. All these things just drive them more beyond reach. Sadly I think that there are too few of us collectors that is. Another point brought up, cause I dont see many kids in the comic shops here. I had 8 friends who collected, I'm the only one who remains. Two of those guys are teachers and we had this conversation, they concur, kids are changing their tastes, do the movies=toys=comics=collectors?? I'd bet this is not happening at the same rate anymore. Maybe the high grade market will always be there, more or less, but will collectors? Could your shop survive on back issues alone? I dunno, not to sound like the impending doom/the comic world is ending. Maybe I have to buy a fiddle so I can sit by the fire with JC.

[joe_collector]

Maybe I have to buy a fiddle so I can sit by the fire with JC.

 

You better get a prime seat now, as I can see it getting mighty crowded, mighty soon. Oh yeah, new guys brings the marshmallows.

[musicmeta]

Whoever paid 19K for the 9.8 Hulk 181 must have money to burn and if this book drops like a rock in value, his investment is probably no more than like me tossing a couple of twenty dollar bills in the dirt.

 

I hope so... I really do.

 

But you'd be surprised at who was holding the bag when other collectible's market crashed. Most times it was the average guy on the street who got hammered the most, which is logical, since most people don't get rich by being .

 

I just can't imagine someone would pay 19K for a Hulk 181 REALLY thinking that it's going to be a solid investment that will make that someone a fortune in the long run. It's just got to be for the love the book?? I do know that people have lost a whole lot more on far riskier ventures though.

[joe_collector]

I just can't imagine someone would pay 19K for a Hulk 181 REALLY thinking that it's going to be a solid investment that will make that someone a fortune in the long run. It's just got to be for the love the book?? I do know that people have lost a whole lot more on far riskier ventures though.

 

You never know, but in my experience, the ones buying at the peak and getting stuck holding the bag, are people least able to withstand it.

 

I saw an interesting mini-biography on Mark Cuban (billionaire owner of the Mavs) and he built his fortune on the inate ability to know exactly when to get in, and out of, various markets.

 

He was into stamps and coins early on, then computer technology and networking, and then later set up Internet companies, and each time, he broke in before the rush, rode the wave, and then got out at the peak.

 

If he had been born at a different time, it wouldn't be coins and stamps that would have caught his interest. He would have been buying HG Silver and Bronze heavy in the mid-90's, then have sold them CGC graded a year or two ago, and would be using that cash on another emerging market.

 

No way you'd see him laying down $18K on a Hulk 181, though he'd likely be the guy selling it.