1990 News story on comic collecting...

[tth2]

If it's fair for some people to continuously "counsel" that prices are going to plummet...

 

What bugs me about this, are the dumbasses who continually spout BS like "I remember someone telling me the EXACT same thing in 1941 when I sold an Action Comics #1 for 25-cents".

 

Get with the program, we're in 2006, and I couldn't give a rat's butt what some old fart told you in 19XX. I never said that, and I have never, ever, ever stated that we're in for a back issue meltdown before CGC and their slabbed bubble started up. In fact, I've always thought the majority of pre-CGC prices offered a good value, and never advocated selling out at any prior period time.

Ah, that magical explanation, "It's different this time".

 

The point is, O Dense One, that someone else was saying the exact same thing in 1976, in 1986 and in 1996, and in each case those people turned out to be wrong. This isn't about you or your prognostication abilities (or lack thereof). It's just making sure that people understand that you're nothing but Doomsayer Version 4.0, and your arguments, which might sound convincing to some newbie, is simply the latest reiteration of arguments that have been made for 40 years now.

[joe_collector]

The point is, O Dense One, that someone else was saying the exact same thing in 1976, in 1986 and in 1996, and in each case those people turned out to be wrong.

 

Man, you're a real dope.

 

Can you not read? I expressly stated that I did not make those sentiments at that time, and that I do not care what Sawdust Sam said in 1965, and to debate the topics based on the merits circa 2006. Debate the demographics, argue against my statement that kids stopped buying new comics in 1990, dispute the "perfect storm" scenario of EBay, CGC and the comic book movie fad.

 

Or do really believe that because some old farts in 1976 stated that prices would fall, and didn't, that the market is totally immune to a downturn for all time?

 

Seriously, you don't believe that, do you?

[tth2]

The point is, O Dense One, that someone else was saying the exact same thing in 1976, in 1986 and in 1996, and in each case those people turned out to be wrong.

 

Man, you're a real dope.

 

Can you not read? I expressly stated that I did not make those sentiments at that time, and that I do not care what Sawdust Sam said in 1965, and to debate the topics based on the merits circa 2006. Debate the demographics, argue against my statement that kids stopped buying new comics in 1990, dispute the "perfect storm" scenario of EBay, CGC and the comic book movie fad.

Perhaps YOU'RE the one that can't read. If you had read on to the next sentence, immediately after the one you quoted, you'd see that I already anticipated your response:

 

"This isn't about you or your prognostication abilities (or lack thereof). It's just making sure that people understand that you're nothing but Doomsayer Version 4.0, and your arguments, which might sound convincing to some newbie, is simply the latest reiteration of arguments that have been made for 40 years now."

[joe_collector]

 

So, because Sawdust Sam predicted the comic market would crash in 1941, you somehow feel that somehow insulates you totally from negative demographic and economic trends for centuries to come?

 

Man, that's rich. What's next, voodoo dolls?

[jkc313]

I'd love to take a poll among the comic collecting community as to who knows more about comics and the comic book market: Keith Contarino or Joe_Collector.

 

He's advocating a never-ending rise on comic prices, until the end of time, and you're laughing at me?

 

Have you people ever taken an Economics course in your life?

 

JC. Are you a *spoon* or simply can't read a simple statement? When did I say there's a never-ending rise to comics prices? I clearly said neither I nor you know what prices will be down the road. That said, with a few dips, they always have risen and even with the downtimes, high grade key Silver continued to go up. You seem to think I was wrong about the early 90's. I don't have any idea what you are talking about. Early 90's brought Valiants and I made a boat load of $$ as I got in and out quickly. I sold my books, as did Supapimp, because I had other things to spend money on like a house, college funds for kids etc. And, yes, I've taken my share of Economics courses while earning 3 degrees but I've yet to see one offered at any University entitled The Economics Of Collectibles. Your "do the math" is not only tiresome but idiotic. have you ever taken a course in history? You could have applied the same logic at any time during the past 40 years and been dead wrong. Maybe you're right but no one knows and, historically, you're wrong. I'll put my knowledge and reputation up against yours anytime, whoever you are.

keith

[jkc313]

hi keith. don't worry about JC, he's just a blunt personality here on the boards. good to see you posting again, and i for one agree on wishing i too had kept my early HG SA books back in the early 90's.

 

Hey. Nice to be back. Couldn't resist this thread after seeing Peter spouting off about MY books. ACtually I think some were his.Why is it that people like JC are even taken seriously? I'd like to see his bio. And, as I told you years ago, bottom falls out of the market, I'll lose some bucks but will go back to collecting books I can no longer afford. JC makes it sound that it's somehow a bad thing to have 40 years of experience in this business. Just for fun, what do you think are good buys at current prices? I have some ideas but will wait on you.

keith

[Foolkiller]

hi keith. don't worry about JC, he's just a blunt personality here on the boards. good to see you posting again, and i for one agree on wishing i too had kept my early HG SA books back in the early 90's.

 

Hey. Nice to be back. Couldn't resist this thread after seeing Peter spouting off about MY books. ACtually I think some were his.Why is it that people like JC are even taken seriously? I'd like to see his bio. And, as I told you years ago, bottom falls out of the market, I'll lose some bucks but will go back to collecting books I can no longer afford. JC makes it sound that it's somehow a bad thing to have 40 years of experience in this business. Just for fun, what do you think are good buys at current prices? I have some ideas but will wait on you.

keith

 

Keith -- JC may not putting his ideas in the most diplomatic fashion, but I think some of what he is saying does have some merit.

 

It's not a bad thing to have 40 years in the business at all.

[FlyingDonut]

Just for fun, what do you think are good buys at current prices? I have some ideas but will wait on you.

keith

 

Low grade (G/VG and down) Marvel Silver Age keys, any restored slabbed book above 8.5 with "professional" restoration, uncirculated 1994-1998 Marvels/DCs (they're out there in bulk - buy them for nothing and stick them away), pre-Unity Valiants, long runs of major Marvel titles from the late 80s and early 90s if you can buy them in bulk.

[THE_BEYONDER]

If it's fair for some people to continuously "counsel" that prices are going to plummet...

 

What bugs me about this, are the dumbasses who continually spout BS like "I remember someone telling me the EXACT same thing in 1941 when I sold an Action Comics #1 for 25-cents".

 

Get with the program, we're in 2006, and I couldn't give a rat's butt what some old fart told you in 19XX. I never said that, and I have never, ever, ever stated that we're in for a back issue meltdown before CGC and their slabbed bubble started up. In fact, I've always thought the majority of pre-CGC prices offered a good value, and never advocated selling out at any prior period time.

Ah, that magical explanation, "It's different this time".

 

The point is, O Dense One, that someone else was saying the exact same thing in 1976, in 1986 and in 1996, and in each case those people turned out to be wrong. This isn't about you or your prognostication abilities (or lack thereof). It's just making sure that people understand that you're nothing but Doomsayer Version 4.0, and your arguments, which might sound convincing to some newbie, is simply the latest reiteration of arguments that have been made for 40 years now.

 

THE "difference":

 

1. Ebay

2. CGC

3. Movie Saturation

 

Nowadays, a book can go from costing $10 to $100 virtually overnight.

[FlyingDonut]

If it's fair for some people to continuously "counsel" that prices are going to plummet...

 

What bugs me about this, are the dumbasses who continually spout BS like "I remember someone telling me the EXACT same thing in 1941 when I sold an Action Comics #1 for 25-cents".

 

Get with the program, we're in 2006, and I couldn't give a rat's butt what some old fart told you in 19XX. I never said that, and I have never, ever, ever stated that we're in for a back issue meltdown before CGC and their slabbed bubble started up. In fact, I've always thought the majority of pre-CGC prices offered a good value, and never advocated selling out at any prior period time.

Ah, that magical explanation, "It's different this time".

 

The point is, O Dense One, that someone else was saying the exact same thing in 1976, in 1986 and in 1996, and in each case those people turned out to be wrong. This isn't about you or your prognostication abilities (or lack thereof). It's just making sure that people understand that you're nothing but Doomsayer Version 4.0, and your arguments, which might sound convincing to some newbie, is simply the latest reiteration of arguments that have been made for 40 years now.

 

THE "difference":

 

1. Ebay

2. CGC

3. Movie Saturation

 

1. If anything, eBay and teh internets will keep prices up, as there will be a continual way for supply to meet demand. The Long Tail in action. I'm seeing increased demand for stuff that would never sell, mostly to overseas buyers.

2. The overwhelming number of books aren't slabbed. Will the insane multiples go away for slabbed books? Most likely. But the remaining 99% of all books will continue to see the same sort of appreciation they've always seen.

3. Movie saturation is a little different to predict - how much of the movie saturation will pull Iron Man 118 out of the woodwork, for example - but I think it is a limited section of the market.

[THE_BEYONDER]

If it's fair for some people to continuously "counsel" that prices are going to plummet...

 

What bugs me about this, are the dumbasses who continually spout BS like "I remember someone telling me the EXACT same thing in 1941 when I sold an Action Comics #1 for 25-cents".

 

Get with the program, we're in 2006, and I couldn't give a rat's butt what some old fart told you in 19XX. I never said that, and I have never, ever, ever stated that we're in for a back issue meltdown before CGC and their slabbed bubble started up. In fact, I've always thought the majority of pre-CGC prices offered a good value, and never advocated selling out at any prior period time.

Ah, that magical explanation, "It's different this time".

 

The point is, O Dense One, that someone else was saying the exact same thing in 1976, in 1986 and in 1996, and in each case those people turned out to be wrong. This isn't about you or your prognostication abilities (or lack thereof). It's just making sure that people understand that you're nothing but Doomsayer Version 4.0, and your arguments, which might sound convincing to some newbie, is simply the latest reiteration of arguments that have been made for 40 years now.

 

THE "difference":

 

1. Ebay

2. CGC

3. Movie Saturation

 

1. If anything, eBay and teh internets will keep prices up, as there will be a continual way for supply to meet demand. The Long Tail in action. I'm seeing increased demand for stuff that would never sell, mostly to overseas buyers.

2. The overwhelming number of books aren't slabbed. Will the insane multiples go away for slabbed books? Most likely. But the remaining 99% of all books will continue to see the same sort of appreciation they've always seen.

3. Movie saturation is a little different to predict - how much of the movie saturation will pull Iron Man 118 out of the woodwork, for example - but I think it is a limited section of the market.

 

I keep seeing "HG Silver" being mentioned. HG Silver is very much a part of the CGC world.

 

Low/mid grade isn't going to crash for the simple fact that it isn't inflated in the 1st place.

[FlyingDonut]

If it's fair for some people to continuously "counsel" that prices are going to plummet...

 

What bugs me about this, are the dumbasses who continually spout BS like "I remember someone telling me the EXACT same thing in 1941 when I sold an Action Comics #1 for 25-cents".

 

Get with the program, we're in 2006, and I couldn't give a rat's butt what some old fart told you in 19XX. I never said that, and I have never, ever, ever stated that we're in for a back issue meltdown before CGC and their slabbed bubble started up. In fact, I've always thought the majority of pre-CGC prices offered a good value, and never advocated selling out at any prior period time.

Ah, that magical explanation, "It's different this time".

 

The point is, O Dense One, that someone else was saying the exact same thing in 1976, in 1986 and in 1996, and in each case those people turned out to be wrong. This isn't about you or your prognostication abilities (or lack thereof). It's just making sure that people understand that you're nothing but Doomsayer Version 4.0, and your arguments, which might sound convincing to some newbie, is simply the latest reiteration of arguments that have been made for 40 years now.

 

THE "difference":

 

1. Ebay

2. CGC

3. Movie Saturation

 

1. If anything, eBay and teh internets will keep prices up, as there will be a continual way for supply to meet demand. The Long Tail in action. I'm seeing increased demand for stuff that would never sell, mostly to overseas buyers.

2. The overwhelming number of books aren't slabbed. Will the insane multiples go away for slabbed books? Most likely. But the remaining 99% of all books will continue to see the same sort of appreciation they've always seen.

3. Movie saturation is a little different to predict - how much of the movie saturation will pull Iron Man 118 out of the woodwork, for example - but I think it is a limited section of the market.

 

I keep seeing "HG Silver" being mentioned. HG Silver is very much a part of the CGC world.

 

Low/mid grade isn't going to crash for the simple fact that it isn't inflated in the 1st place.

 

So we're talking about a potential crash that's going to affect a tiny sliver of the collecting world? That would be covered in above, when I agree that the insane multiples for slabbed books will go away.

 

Just to be clear, however, people on this board who have been the most vocal about The Great Crash have been saying its "just around the corner" since 2002, when the board opened. At a certain point, I suppose they have to be right.

[joe_collector]

JC makes it sound that it's somehow a bad thing to have 40 years of experience in this business.

 

Actually, it can be, you know it. You can get so insulated in your own little comic book world, that it can be virtually impossible to look at the big picture. I can see it everytime one of you writes "comic book prices have gone up, and they will continue to", as that's all you really know.

 

I remember outlining these EXACT same things to card dealers who had been in the business for decades, and getting the exact same responses. "Oh no" they cried,"high sports card pack prices are nothing to worry about" and "Who cares if kids don't buy cards anymore, there are more than enough adults to go around".

 

I was right then, and I'm right now. You can't fight demographics.

[supapimp]

hi keith. don't worry about JC, he's just a blunt personality here on the boards. good to see you posting again, and i for one agree on wishing i too had kept my early HG SA books back in the early 90's.

 

Hey. Nice to be back. Couldn't resist this thread after seeing Peter spouting off about MY books. ACtually I think some were his.Why is it that people like JC are even taken seriously? I'd like to see his bio. And, as I told you years ago, bottom falls out of the market, I'll lose some bucks but will go back to collecting books I can no longer afford. JC makes it sound that it's somehow a bad thing to have 40 years of experience in this business. Just for fun, what do you think are good buys at current prices? I have some ideas but will wait on you.

keith

 

JC is a nice guy, he just tends to rub some people the wrong way with his philosphy but that's OK since everybody is entitled to their own opinion. as for good buys? with the message board you can't list good buys without some speculators reading the boards and prices being driven up. e.g. JIM's back from three years ago when they became "supahot" and were doubled and even tripled in value in the next OS guide. so if you're on to something, don't mention it and keep it to yourself otherwise the cat is out of the bag. but you can always PM me with your good buys.

[THE_BEYONDER]

To me..it's the difference between prices gradually increasing over 40 years....and prices rocketing into the stratosphere overnight.

[joe_collector]

You could have applied the same logic at any time during the past 40 years and been dead wrong.

 

A guy's got 3 degrees and yet still can't tell time.

 

Once again, one of my major points is that kids stopped buying new comics in the late-80's/early-90's, which in turn will create a downturn in "new collector blood" in 6-10 years from now. We're not talking about "fewer kids" buying as in the 60's and 70's, but an almost total exodus of young readers in one fell swoop. BAM!

 

Now tell me again, assuming the laws of time and space are consistent, how a trend that will really hit in 6 years minimum, could be applied over the last 40 years.

 

I'd love to hear the explanation on that one.

[joe_collector]

Just to be clear, however, people on this board who have been the most vocal about The Great Crash have been saying its "just around the corner" since 2002, when the board opened. At a certain point, I suppose they have to be right.

 

Just to be clear, a lot of that of related to a select piece of the CGC pie, and in some ways, the crash already happened. There are tons of books you can't be 20% of top value for now, but naturally, these have fallen off the map and been replaced by other "hot books".

 

But this conversation is not about a CGC Crash, but the anticipated erosion of the collector base due to well-known demographic trends. Baby boomers get old, my generation fills in, then the next generation (who never bought comics off the shelf) just laughs and walks on by.

 

Through all this, I've never heard once why today's 18-year old kids, who never read or collected comics, are going to suddenly want to spend $300K on a CGC comic in 10-15 years. I would love to hear the rationale surrounding that bizarre leap of logic.

[tth2]

THE "difference":

 

1. Ebay

2. CGC

3. Movie Saturation

 

Nowadays, a book can go from costing $10 to $100 virtually overnight.

A book could go from $10 to $100 (or similar increases in terms of percentage, since $10 and $100 are worth a lot less today than 20, 30 or 40 years ago) in a VERY short time frame well before eBay, CGC or comic book movies came into existence. Ask any X-Men collector in the early 1980s who saw X-Men 94 and GS X-Men #1 go from $1 books to $20 books virtually overnight. I'm sure other collectors here can remember many other examples, without even getting into the B&Ws and Valiants.

 

For significant across-the-board increases in price in a relatively short period of time, take a look at the jump in Guide prices for SA and GA from the mid-1980s into the late 1980s, and then from the late 1980s into the mid 1990s. As I related when I got together with some of our London members earlier this week, I remember being able to take my first paycheck as a newly commissioned Second Lieutenant in 1986 (annual salary of $14,400 before taxes) and buy VF copies of X-Men 2, 3 & 4, Avengers 2, 3 & 4 and GS X-Men #1 (well, that's what they were advertised and priced as, but they really turned out to be just VG to F when I received them in the mail ). 2 or 3 years later, there is no way I could've afforded to do that on what a Second Lieutenant was being paid at that time.

 

Have eBay, the internet and CGC helped to raise prices? Of course, but they've also increased the pool of collectors exponentially, particularly foreign buyers, and improved liquidity.

[THE_BEYONDER]

THE "difference":

 

1. Ebay

2. CGC

3. Movie Saturation

 

Nowadays, a book can go from costing $10 to $100 virtually overnight.

A book could go from $10 to $100 (or similar increases in terms of percentage, since $10 and $100 are worth a lot less today than 20, 30 or 40 years ago) in a VERY short time frame well before eBay, CGC or comic book movies came into existence. Ask any X-Men collector in the early 1980s who saw X-Men 94 and GS X-Men #1 go from $1 books to $20 books virtually overnight. I'm sure other collectors here can remember many other examples, without even getting into the B&Ws and Valiants.

 

For significant across-the-board increases in price in a relatively short period of time, take a look at the jump in Guide prices for SA and GA from the mid-1980s into the late 1980s, and then from the late 1980s into the mid 1990s. As I related when I got together with some of our London members earlier this week, I remember being able to take my first paycheck as a newly commissioned Second Lieutenant in 1986 (annual salary of $14,400 before taxes) and buy VF copies of X-Men 2, 3 & 4, Avengers 2, 3 & 4 and GS X-Men #1 (well, that's what they were advertised and priced as, but they really turned out to be just VG to F when I received them in the mail ). 2 or 3 years later, there is no way I could've afforded to do that on what a Second Lieutenant was being paid at that time.

 

Have eBay, the internet and CGC helped to raise prices? Of course, but they've also increased the pool of collectors exponentially, particularly foreign buyers, and improved liquidity.

 

I used $10-$100 simply to illustrate a 10X multiple. Make it $1000-$10,000 if that helps to make the difference appear 'significant'.

 

Movie hype, multiples for .2 increments & a worldwide audience via the internet/Ebay for each & every record-breaking sale are all things new to this hobby.

 

Rather than it taking 25 years of gradual apprecaition to reach today's prices...it took 5.

 

Are these prices sustainable? Possibly

 

Is there any more room for these prices to go up?

 

IMO...we've already hit the ceiling.

[jkc313]

Just to be clear, however, people on this board who have been the most vocal about The Great Crash have been saying its "just around the corner" since 2002, when the board opened. At a certain point, I suppose they have to be right.

 

Just to be clear, a lot of that of related to a select piece of the CGC pie, and in some ways, the crash already happened. There are tons of books you can't be 20% of top value for now, but naturally, these have fallen off the map and been replaced by other "hot books".

 

But this conversation is not about a CGC Crash, but the anticipated erosion of the collector base due to well-known demographic trends. Baby boomers get old, my generation fills in, then the next generation (who never bought comics off the shelf) just laughs and walks on by.

 

Through all this, I've never heard once why today's 18-year old kids, who never read or collected comics, are going to suddenly want to spend $300K on a CGC comic in 10-15 years. I would love to hear the rationale surrounding that bizarre leap of logic.

 

I think you're wrong about when kids stopped buying comics. It was earlier, probably mid 80's. I taught my kids to read from comics but they have no deep set love of them. You are trying to apply science to what's basically an illogical occurrance and that's the collector's mindset. My kids ARE into collecting things and they do recognize the value of collectibles. There are many things that I have no love for from childhood that now fascinate me. Coins are an example. What's going to make a now 18 year old plop down $300K on a book down the road? A few things. 1. He may recognize that comics have historically been a good investment over time, 2. he may simply think the book in question is just a really neat looking thing he'd like to have, 3. And most important, although you are correct in your statement concerning readership, the comic CHARACTERS are an ingrained part of our culture and always will be. My step daughters didin't read comics until they found out that The Teen Titans were not just from a cartoon show. My 10 year old wanted a copy of DC Presents 26 so she could see what the original New Teen Titans looked like. Spider-man, Batman, Superman, the Hulk, The X-Men, etc. are everywhere and everyone is growing up with these characters whether they read comics or not. If you are assuming that we Boomers are only purchasing comics due to our sense of nostalgia, the same thing may happen with today's youth. Virtually everyone I know that grew up with comics and now have kids, have instilled in those kids the love of collecting and an appreciation for things that are old. My father's generation viewed things that were old as something not desirable. I don't see that in the 20 year olds I meet nor the 30 year olds. I know people that rarely if ever read comics 25 years ago that now collect. The characters in comics permeate our culture in many forms other than comics. I believe this will stimulate them to collect/invest in the future. I may be wrong. You asked for an argument other than history, well here it is. You are making guarantees in your posts. the only guarantee I'll make is nobody knows if or when the prices will top out. keith contarino