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SW3D's Journal

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In Search of a Formula: How Do We Calculate the Value of a Comic Graded 9.4 or Higher?

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SW3D

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This question is particularly directed to any and all Math Geniuses!

I've recently purchased the Overstreet Price Guide 2013-2014 Edition (yep... I'm a little late on this). And like I do every year, I scour and research the raw/ungraded values of my favorite comics and those I want to sell and purchase.

Like many collectors, I am "condition sensitive" and only collect high grades, and when it comes to buying graded comics, I have my personal guidelines:

Golden Age: 8.0 and up

Silver Age: 9.0 and up

Bronze Age: 9.2 and up

Copper Age: 9.4 and up

Modern Age: 9.6 and up

There are times I will buy below the aforementioned grading scale. And such exceptions are made for comics which are categorized as scarce, rare, or low print runs, or comics with unique signatures from talent seldom seen or no longer living, or comics offered at the right price. Case in point, I purchased a 9.6 Modern recently at $30 ( shipping costs included ), which had a signature and was a key (the 1st Appearance of a Major character). And this comic languished on eBay for I don't know how long, simply because many collectors thumb down on 9.6's from the Modern Age. And the total CGC census population for this comic is low to moderate, with grades evenly represented for 9.4, 9.6, and 9.8 and none above. I personally believe, if there is value to a comic (and there almost always is), a 9.6 which is Near Mint Plus, is an exceptional grade, especially if the comic is over 15 years old (Pre-CGC), then why not go for it if the price is right? And it was, so I did.

But anyway... As I was guess-estimating the value of my CGC collection, using OPG, GPA, the CGC census, market trends, and my crystal ball, a thought popped into my head: "Is there a mathematical formula that will help me estimate the value of comics at 9.4 grade or higher based on pricing currently listed in the Overstreet Price Guide?"

As you may know, OPG's grading tier tops out at 9.2 for raw/ungraded. So how do I estimate comics graded at 9.4 and above?

Now I will admit, I am no math genius. I flunked Calculus in college, and whenever I do numbers crunching, I need the aid of Excel, a calculator, and my digits! Yep... I am mathematically challenged! But using logic and reason, I must assume, there must be a way to predict ascending/appreciating number values by using a mathematical formula or principle that can predict the next theoretical value based on a pre-determined sequence of number values... such as one's already listed in OPG.

For instance, for Swamp Thing Volume 1, Number 1, Overstreet has the following values based on raw grades:

2.0 $15

4.0 $30

6.0 $45

8.0 $103

9.0 $227

9.2 $350

Based on these appreciating price values, coupled evenly with ascending grades, what formula could I use to reasonably predict the raw values of a 9.4, 9.6, 9.8, 9.9, and even a 10.0?

Any math savants know?

I would greatly appreciate your feedback.

SW3D

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