sfcityduck

The flu is a known quantity. And we are doing everything that can reasonably be done given the risk. In contrast, we don't yet know what the real stats will be on COVID-19. We are only a few months in. We don't yet know if millions will be affected or not. We don't yet know if only a few thousand will die in the U.S. That's wishful thinking based on a projection from a very limited data set. Flu is seasonally contained, we don't yet know if that is true for COVID-19. Lots of unknowns, and no one wants to be the person who makes the stupid choice which kills a lot of people who didn't need to die.

Hong Kong and Singapore are a bit different than China. And by "economy," I don't mean stocks. I mean the devastation we are now going to see of small business owners, especially cafes and restaurants and boutiques etc. My city now looks like a sparsely populated ghost town. We are going to see a lot of real world economic hurt. Hong Kong and Singapore have contained the virus far more rapidly than we are going to be able to do because they rapidly responded with testing and appropriate measures based on that testing.

But, this is a public health issue. My guess is that most of the folks on these boards are above their 60s. So looking at it from the view point of "I'm young, screw the old guys" is not a responsible public health view. The young infected folks are the ones who will spread it to their grandparents if they don't take the issue seriously. I agree that this could have been handled in a much saner and sensible manner. But, the lack of testing and the failure to get in front of this with a reasonable plan is the reality we now face.

Really good questions. The answers are scandalous. South Korea is testing more people per week than the U.S. has done altogether. Hong Kong and Singapore are beating the disease, without destroying their economies, because they have done very aggressive testing. We aren't copying that model yet. As of yesterday, 67,995 had survived and 4,629 had died. That's a death rate of 6.8%. But, junk in, junk out. The number of survivors is likely under reported due to lack of testing, and there is strong evidence that the number of deaths being reported by China and Iran are highly under reported, including video and satellite images of mass graves in Iran.

NCAA just cancelled all sports, including March Madness. MLB has delayed season start for 3 weeks (for now).

I think it will be a safe bet that all March-April and maybe early May gatherings get cancelled or postponed. Mid-Summer, I think its a fair bet that they will proceed. We'll see.

I agree this is probably a two month problem. SDCC probably can go forward. I might even be able to win the lottery and get tickets this year.

Here in SF, most businesses have told workers to work remotely. School was cancelled at 90 Catholic schools. All schools will soon follow suit. Small businesses like cafes and restaurants are probably doomed if this lasts more than two weeks. Downtown is already very thinned out in population. It is so bad already, that a valid question is whether the economic fallout is going to cause more deaths than the virus. Poverty kills. Joblessness kills. Depression kills. As for the point of this thread - comic cons - how can they go forward when the NBA has cancelled its season, colleges are cancelling classes, and NCAA March Madness is probably next (already fans are banned from games)? They can't.

I wasn't aware of that. Minutes ago, SF just banned fans at Warriors home games for the next two weeks.

Not criticising, just noting that Head of a key Administrative agency basically just endorsed having the NBA play without crowds. Over in Europe, they are playing pro soccer without crowds. It's an amazing world we live in. And relevant to comic cons.

Today the Trump Administration changed its tune:

On the bright side for consumers (definitely not businesses), covid-19 has caused China to cancel out of most of its lobster buying from the U.S. So lobster prices have dropped by 50%. Tonight my wife and I dined on 16 oz. lobster tails for a comparatively cheap price over here on the left coast.

I agree with you on Dr. Phil. But, I don't recall any crazy responses to MedicAR on this thread. If you are talking about CGC cancelling out of conventions, it is worth noting that the San Francisco Department of Public Health, which has a lot of experience with and expertise in the spread of deadly diseases, just recommended that all non-essential community gatherings be cancelled and, in response, the Mayor just cancelled all music and entertainment events in publicly owned venues (e.g., the symphony, ballet, etc.). I really can't fault CGC for taking steps to protect its employees, especially when my own law firm and many of its clients are doing the same thing.

The death rate for the flu and common cold in the U.S. are exponentially less common than that for Covid-19. The death rate for flu in the United States is 1/10th of 1%. The WHO said this week that the death rate for Covid-19 is 3.4%. That is 34x higher. Now, it appears that the mortality rate may well descend as more data comes in, but it may also be that as more data comes in others factors will highlight unique risks that Covid-19 poses that the flue does not. My point being, you are stating some things which appear to be at odds with what I am reading from the WHO and the bulletins I am getting from my own international business employer. While I appreciate seeing different perspectives, and I agree no one should be panicking, it is probably unwise to be implying that those businesses who are cancelling mass gatherings or ending non-essential air travel are panicked (and remember our host here has cancelled out of cons), or to suggest to a cohort that trends towards the older side that there's no reason to avoid a mass gathering.

At least with regards to the topic of this thread, it seems like the WHO has a different view. The WHO has stated that there is ample evidence that mass gatherings can amplify the spread of infectious diseases. Consequently, we now see that in Italy they are playing professional soccer games with no audiences. It is this concern which has apparently caused SxSW and other major mass gathering events to cancel out. In addition, a number of major businesses have now banned non-essential air travel, including major international insurance companies (which are in the business of assessing risk) and law firms. So, I would not be critical of conventions for deciding to take a year off.

Not a comic con, but related: Museum Closure Notification March 6–8, 2020 Due to growing concerns about COVID-19, The Walt Disney Family Museum will be closed through Sunday, March 8, 2020 to conduct a deep cleaning and sanitation of all museum spaces and add further protocols and precautions. All programming during this time period will be canceled or rescheduled. Communication to ticket holders regarding refunds will be forthcoming. “I sincerely apologize for the inconvenience, but the health and well-being of our guests, staff, and community are our primary concern,” said Executive Director Kirsten Komoroske. “We thank everyone for your support of the museum during this time, and we send you and your families our best wishes.” We encourage visitors to review the CDC-issued guidelines and the CDC’s travel alert listrelated to COVID-19.

United has cancelled 10% of its domestic flights. So the strategy seems to be to cut flights, not try to entice people to fly. Probably smart choice.

San Francisco now has multiple cases of community spread coronavirus. San Diego has found coronavirus in a retail store worker. Going to be very interesting to see how this plays out and the impact it has on comic conventions and dealers.

Condolences! My in-laws had to cancel a late March vacation to Italy (which United waived change fees for) and my niece lost out on a term abroad to Sienna. Many employers are now banning air travel by their employees. As I said in the first post, it is the virus which is going to impact our lives and comic collecting, not the stock market.

I always love your posts because your Canadian whites are an incredibly cool side alley of comic history! Do you now own every Nelvana appearance?

When organised fandom really got moving around 1960, there were plenty of guys alive who had been buying those comics off the stands. They knew the answers because they had the comics or knew folks who had the comics. And there were a few really great comic collectors who were in touch with industry professionals and new key information because of that. A great example is how Dave Wigransky was contacted to provide info for one of the 1962 "All in Color for a Dime" articles in the fanzine Xero regarding the publication history of Wonder/Wonderworld Comics.

And this is the behavior that I was suggesting was likely in my first post on this thread. It's not the stock market that is going to impact the comic market. If anything does, it will be the coronavirus itself.

But that is not how they make money.

It must have healthy business customers to earn money. It's main revenue stream comes from advertising.

I think he's alluding to the fact that the Barks Duck market has seen decreases in value. I'm pretty sure we can all think of segments of the comic market which have lost value or not yielded acceptable returns from an investment perspective. It's a huge market, and CGC has initiated some trends which appear to be telescoping the focus of collectors on a smaller pool of books.